A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[BBmolla]

Nacho/Plum can you vote so I can sheep you

[Plums Yo Mamma]

sunday

[Thor665]

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding Minimum

[Minimum]

*is prodded*

For the next week and a half, this slot will contain even less Mina than it did before, because midterms are destroying what's left of both my free time and my sanity.

Last comments before I hibernate

unless a massclaim happens today, because I've shotgunned claiming our role

:

-Can people stop calling Thor obvtown for making a

bad

case? I had a flash of "Is Thor too scummy to be scum?" paranoia, but according to CES, Thor has pulled the "tunnel aggressively on someone who looks innocent past the point when it's reasonable" card before as scum (ask him for the meta, since I don't know specifics). Thor and Magua both called it "reaction testing," but I was the first one to use those words precisely to rule out that explanation due to his antics not appearing to have an actual motivation.

Also, for Thor:

1) Rank the surviving players from town to scum. If that's too hard, general categories from town to scum will do.
2) Now will you explain why you suddenly found Feysal town on the day you replaced in, and resolutely defended him? And why the reason you'd used at the time consisted of "I don't think people would attack him like this if he was scum" in multiball?

-Shadoweh, to be honest, I skimmed your kortul case when I first saw it. I do agree that the timing of his votes for AV and Timeater was somewhat convenient. But I think you're guilty of taking every single time kortul so much as mentions Starbuck/Timeater or AV and editorializing with the worst possible interpretation of his behaviour. For example, him describing

scummy

things AV did is not IIoA. For next time, long lists of quotes are an ineffective way of making your point, particularly when those quotes just engender more quotes in response, to which you respond with yet

more

quotes. They just bore people and make you look tunnel-visioned. His reaction to your case actually makes me feel somewhat better about him, because he seems genuinely annoyed at being misunderstood/misrepresented. (He's also hit the right notes in some of his posts, like the one about his town reads being right but his scumreads consistently off-mark.)

kortul has decent odds of being scum due to PoE, but I'd rank Thor, Magua, and AV as more likely (and a possible fourth and/or fifth scumbag being among my sleeper suspects instead).

-Speaking of town frustration, Zdenek and Tyene may both be completely overreacting to the attacks on them, but that's how TOWN overreacts. I know, because I was in their shoes on D1 (as well as in many other games). It's not self-preservation; it's the constant low-grade pressure of being called scum all game, treated as though you have no credibility, and attacked with arguments you see as crappy, which are then replaced with new rationalizations for why you're scum when those arguments become outdated. From an outside PoV, it's just part of the game, but not when you're bearing the brunt of it. I want to build a protective shield around the two of them.

-Magua, explain your current read on Thor. Explain your PREVIOUS read on Thor. Also, I don't think you ever explained why we dropped off your suspect list (or at least, why you stopped mentioning us as a potential scumread). Lastly, do you think it's fair to say that you aren't playing at all as protown or as engaged as you usually do, and that you're going through the motions? Do you believe that you're playing this game the way you would as scum in multiball?

-AV, a response to this post would be nice.

[AurorusVox]

Prodded, not at home, will post within the next 12 hours.

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding Magua

[AurorusVox]

So...you thought that Timeater was town (and were therefore sheeping every read of his and obnoxiously kissing up to him) because you got the impression that he fucked up his softclaim.

To recap, that's literally the only reason that you called Timeater obvobvobvtown. He didn't make a single post that you personally felt was town, and you're perfectly fine with his lynch now. But you thought he was close to confirmed town based on the softclaim fuck-up. Is that a fair characterization of your opinion?

Well, a fair characterisation is that I thought he'd fucked his claim up and was therefore town. If scum have fakeclaims, they wouldn't counterclaim a town role this late in. Once I locked this read in I treated everything else he did as town.

Let me ask you this. Never mind it being harder for scum to fuck up a fakeclaim in this game. If he's town, then

how the hell can he fuck up his softclaim in the first place

? What did you think his motivation was, as town, for softclaiming something different from his actual role? Please explain.

Because he's Timmy, replaced into a slot with a wagon, and was trying to get it off his back. I'm not saying it's protown, but I think of the two, what he did was more likely to come from town fucking around than scum messing up.

Also, how did you realize that scum had fakeclaims?

I searched "fake claim" (or fakeclaim, probably both) and found a post where someone said mod was helping with fakeclaims - I assumed this had been discussed and confirmed in thread?

Also also, the conclusions in your reread feel somewhat contrived and tailored to fit your current opinions (for example, the leading wagon Timeater not being a town read anymore). When you first read the beginning of the game and decided Salamence was worth voting for, why didn't you share all that stuff about Starbuck looking scummy and Minimum looking townish then? (Never mind that our thoughts on Choose strategy could not be more null and unrelated to alignment.)

Because I spent three minutes looking for something that pinged me in a deeper way. I hadn't developed reads on Starbuck or your slot at that point.

[Pandora]

-_- I supose that's at least a reasonable reply, even if I think you're wrong. I doubt the last scum are going to be so easily caught. Being annoyed at my cases is a long-standing scum reaction from people actually, I can't imagine why but no one ever agrees with me on what scummy is. Suffice it to say I don't think I've misrepresented, rather I've been quite thurough in showing exactly what I think is wrong here.

[4nxi3ty]

My opinion on Magua - slightly leaning town. He is open enough in his reads, there weren't suspicious or forced read changes or votes, he is consistent. Together with the absence of scum tells, that accumulates in a townish read over long run.

I did like most of Magua's explanations for his reads, still mulling over some comments he made about Feysal. I, also, agree with whoever said something about Magua going against the grain with massclaiming is townish. Don't want a Magua lynch at all today.

-Speaking of town frustration, Zdenek and Tyene may both be completely overreacting to the attacks on them, but that's how TOWN overreacts. I know, because I was in their shoes on D1 (as well as in many other games). It's not self-preservation; it's the constant low-grade pressure of being called scum all game, treated as though you have no credibility, and attacked with arguments you see as crappy, which are then replaced with new rationalizations for why you're scum when those arguments become outdated. From an outside PoV, it's just part of the game, but not when you're bearing the brunt of it. I want to build a protective shield around the two of them.

except Zdenek is getting a lot of credibility from the people calling him obvtown <.< and him overreacting to the singular person voting him, who he considers "dumb..weak.. and pathetic", like he is a viable lynch is suspect.

remember when I said tammy was night in abarat? remember when I thought shinori was town due to frustration? fighting a lynch can sometimes be a grave error.

and I don't think my arguments are outdated, merely overlooked.

[Zdenek]

I am not doing nothing else I am currently re-reading the thread(mainly magua and pandora) and waiting to see who pushes for a massclaim and who lets it go.

If my case is

so

"weak" and I am

so

"pathetic", why are you so concerned about it? I am the only one voting you and I wasn't even in your scumpool, yet you are solely focused on shutting down my "dumb" case. You've completely stopped pressuring your thor and tyene scumreads despite being

so

adamant about lynching them earlier.

I'm concerned because your bullshit will lead to my lynch at some point in time.

No one cares about my Tyene case and I have nothing new to present on her, so I'm putting that to the side.

My vote is on Thor.

[Thor665]

-Can people stop calling Thor obvtown for making a

bad

case? I had a flash of "Is Thor too scummy to be scum?" paranoia, but according to CES, Thor has pulled the "tunnel aggressively on someone who looks innocent past the point when it's reasonable" card before as scum (ask him for the meta, since I don't know specifics).

Easy meta would be the aSoS game, where I did it for a scumbuddy (albeit, I think I admitted afterwards I hadn't realized it was a scumbuddy)

The more relevant question is if CES is saying I *don't* do that as town. Because, y'know, otherwise it's not a tell at all.

1) Rank the surviving players from town to scum. If that's too hard, general categories from town to scum will do.
2) Now will you explain why you suddenly found Feysal town on the day you replaced in, and resolutely defended him? And why the reason you'd used at the time consisted of "I don't think people would attack him like this if he was scum" in multiball?

1. I hate doing this, but here we go for kicks;

Happy side of Town

Plum's Yo Mamma
4nxi3ty
Tyene Sand
Magua
AurorusVox
BBmolla

Kinda want dead

Minimum
kortul
Zdenek
Pandora

I would say (derp) Plum, Tyene, and Magua are the 'standouts' on the top list.
I would say Zdenek and kind of a vague tie of Pandora and Kortul are the standouts on the bottom list.

I disagree that Zdenek has been under a lot of pressure unless we're only counting me and now Anxiety...seriously, half the case on me is that I'm *attacking* Zdenek, so...whassup?


2. I have explained it, you even quoted it. I'll admit I've never been at my best in multiball, but I do think the attack on him felt more shallow than sincere and said as much. That he flipped scum simply shifts the probability of what alignment the insincere sounding attackers are.

[BBmolla]

FWIW, Thor's townread on me probably makes him scum.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Okay, Plum and I are going through an intense discussion period right now, which is requiring a shit ton of rereading on my part and isoing and reading and all of that jazz. Please do not lynch in the meantime; what you should do, however, is discuss massclaiming. I've never exactly had a good feeling of when to massclaim before, but I note that none of the flips thus far have been a protective role (AV's one-shot rolestopping ability does not count even a little bit). I also note that people are starting to get down to the PoE stages, meaning that a massclaim can probably help tons. Pandora's useless ability can also work for confirming people who still have powers left while they are targetting the people they want to target, and reading kortul's ISO reminded me of something pretty interesting that I'm going to double-check right now, but might end up in confirmed scum if things don't pan out correctly. So, my vote is for massclaiming.

[kortul]

Didn't have time to do the rest of ISOs, was busy gathering things for the business trip and reading in the other game on site, where deadline is close. Saved needed ISOs on a notebook, will process them over the trip.

Mod, going v/la for a week for a business trip after the post.

I do hope to find an access to internet at least once.

Nacho posted right on time, starting massclaim. I am Harys Swyft, Vanilla Townie. Role PM had nothing special, a quote, mention that i am Master of Coin, and some flavor.

Thor665 is next.

[Thor665]

FWIW, Thor's townread on me probably makes him scum.

For what it's worth it's only based off your claim and I've said as much and you didn't mention anything the first two times around.
Other than that I think you're playing pro-scum, if it makes you feel better.

[Magua]

Spoiler: VC's

VC 1.44 -

Feysal

and

DCLXVI

are tied

Dolorous Edd

(1) - Jal

Feysal

(9) -

Bvoigt

,

greenknight

,

Shinori

,

DCLXVI

,

Benmage

, Albert B. Rampage,

SnowStorm

,

Dolorous Edd

,

Saporerint

Minimum (2) -

StefanB

, Mockingjaye

Starbuck

(1) -

Starbuck

greenknight

(2) - Seraphim,

MagnaofIllusion

kortul (4) - Mastermind of Sin, BBmolla,

Staeg

,

Shadow1psc

DCLXVI

(9) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

, Minimum,

Regfan

, Pandora,

Feysal

,

Lyanna Stark

, Kortul,

Plums Yo Mamma

Not Choosing (0): No one


VC 1.45 -

DCLXVI

takes the lead

Feysal

(8) -

Bvoigt

,

greenknight

,

Shinori

,

DCLXVI

,

Benmage

, Albert B. Rampage,

SnowStorm

,

Saporerint

Minimum (2) - Mockingjaye,

MagnaofIllusion

Starbuck

(1) -

Starbuck

greenknight

(1) - Seraphim
kortul (3) - Mastermind of Sin, BBmolla,

Shadow1psc

DCLXVI

(12) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

, Minimum,

Regfan

, Pandora,

Feysal

,

Lyanna Stark

, Kortul,

Plums Yo Mamma

,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

StefanB

Not Choosing (1): Jal

VC 1.46 - More

DCLXVI

support

Feysal

(8) -

Bvoigt

,

greenknight

,

Shinori

,

DCLXVI

,

Benmage

, Albert B. Rampage,

Saporerint

, Mastermind of Sin
Minimum (2) - Mockingjaye,

MagnaofIllusion

Starbuck

(1) -

Starbuck

greenknight

(1) - Seraphim
kortul (2) - BBmolla,

Shadow1psc

DCLXVI

(14) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

, Minimum,

Regfan

, Pandora,

Feysal

,

Lyanna Stark

, Kortul,

Plums Yo Mamma

,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

StefanB

,

SnowStorm

, BBmolla

Not Choosing (1): Jal

VC 1.47 -

DCLXVI

loses support

Feysal

(8) -

Bvoigt

,

greenknight

,

Shinori

,

DCLXVI

,

Benmage

, Albert B. Rampage,

Saporerint

, Mastermind of Sin
Minimum (2) - Mockingjaye,

MagnaofIllusion

Starbuck

(1) -

Starbuck

greenknight

(1) - Seraphim
kortul (1) -

Shadow1psc

DCLXVI

(12) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

,

Regfan

, Pandora,

Feysal

,

Lyanna Stark

, Kortul,

Plums Yo Mamma

,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

StefanB

,

SnowStorm

Not Choosing (3): Jal, Minimum, BBmolla

VC 1.54 -

DCLXVI

is chosen

Feysal

(7) -

greenknight

,

Shinori

,

Benmage

, Albert B. Rampage,

Saporerint

, Mastermind of Sin, Jal
Minimum (1) - Mockingjaye

Starbuck

(1) -

Starbuck

greenknight

(1) - Seraphim

DCLXVI

(15) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

,

Regfan

, Pandora,

Feysal

,

Lyanna Stark

, Kortul,

Plums Yo Mamma

,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

SnowStorm

,

Shadow1psc

,

bvoigt

,

DCLXVI

,

MagnaofIllusion

kortul (1)

StefanB

Not Choosing (2): Minimum, BBmolla

[Magua]

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

That was meant to be a preview, not a post.

@Eddard:

I just met you
And this is crazy
But there's post 3716
So spoiler it maybe?

[Eddard Stark]

My spoiler's holdin'
simply scroll, no votecounts showin'
hot mod, <innuendo> with blowin'
Please use preview next time, baby?

[Magua]

Going to be offline for the next few hours, and still working on the Aegon side of things (bvoigt being caught by Shadow1psc and saporerint slipping make gauging the intent of those on the wagons really hard to work with, but from the Stannis side:

- Assuming that Feysal didn't know his team because of the setup of him v DCLXVI for Choosing D1
- Kind of halfway assuming that Stannis didn't know him because loltraitor, but in the end it doesn't really matter.

Minimum and BBmolla jump onto the DCLXVI wagon to drive up to 14/15, but then jump off and aren't on it when it comes to completion. DCL is one of those who jumps on himself. Original passthrough thought was that one (or both) were Stannis trying to save DCLXVI, but on reread thinking no -- you either bus for the towncred entirely, or you push another wagon, whereas both Minimum and BBmolla jump off and do absolutely nothing. Given the 24-48 hours until deadline at the time, it's not like another wagon was going to magically form if they didn't push on one. So turning around on this one and thinking that both Minimum and BBmolla are not Stannis.

Next up you have Tyene, Pandora, and kortul. These are all more likely to be bus-for-towncred than Minimum or BBmolla, but I would just be outright flabbergasted if Tierce hardcore pushed a teammate from the very start of D1 in a multiscum game, so I don't think she's Stannis. Pandora and kortul are more likely.

Leaves 4nxiety, Thor, Zdenek, and AurorusVox. Well, there's a surprise.

Bleh. Going out now. Be back later.

Pedit: I feel uncomfortable in this modding environment.

[Minimum]

The more relevant question is if CES is saying I *don't* do that as town. Because, y'know, otherwise it's not a tell at all.

Nope. The existence of clear scum motivation is sufficient to establish it as a tell. Meta thing just helps Mina sleep at night. (Also, you're scum regardless.)

Mass claim is good. Kortul popcorned to you, Thor.

[Thor665]

@Minimum - are you serious? It's a meta tell that is meaningless but there's scum intent behind it...so it's valid? That doesn't make any sense. Explain it further.

I'm Jonos Bracken. VT.

Zdenek is next.

[Zdenek]

Jeyne Poole, VT

Tyene goes next.

[Tyene Sand]

This tree you're STILL barking up at? Up there sits a very pissed off lioness.

I'm Myrcella Baratheon, VT. Some of the Dorne RP wasn't just for kicks; when Tammy started talking about Myrcella, I ran with it.

Zdenek

[...]

concerns me on a lyncher level at this stage.

I was thinking Zdenek was Darkstar and knew

my

role.

Shut up, my tinfoil hat hides my missing ear.

A not so entertaining aside: I always confuse Myrcella and Margaery's names and when Tammy died I was somewhat confused I was alive. Also, Cheekaday killed both my parents in a single Day/Night cycle. :/


BBmolla.

[BBmolla]

I am Kevan Lannister, Knowledgable(spelling intended) Kill Immune

The kill immunity lasted until Day 4 due to plot armor. I could still get lynched, but all nightkill attempts would fail.
Knowledge is as I've explained multiple times