A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Magua]

Did you finish this research?

What prompted you to change your opinion [of 4nxi3ty]?

About 1,400 posts and flips helping to narrow down the PoE.

Or, to put it another way, my opinion of mockingjaye never really changed overly much (my end reasons for voting 4nxi3ty are very similar to my original reasons), but with Scumhunter/Timeater dead and a gradual townread shift onto Tyene Sand, 4nxi3ty simply became my strongest suspect.

Also, what is your read of Pandora? You mentioned him as null at the beginning, and gave no indications about the read changes, unlike on other players.

Vague town. Strong position on DCLXVI-choose wagon D1 and strong position on bvoigt lynch wagon D1 points town; Quilford would never bus like that; Shadoweh might. Still, contribution to the thread has been minimal, and largely pointless.

Again, if you are town, try to look at this from non-Magua point of view. I don't remember mod saying anything about you being an innocent child, so why not check, even if the chances are really small? All it takes is good will and one PM. It doesn't use any resources that are needed elsewhere. Do you see this day full of life and discussions, or do i somehow distract Minimum from anything?

Useless questions are what scum do to "show" they're doing something. Takes no effort, produces no result. Given this post:

And Plum's Yo Mamma, no, we're not a godfather checker. We're...well, exactly what it says on the tin. I asked Faraday what result we'd get on a Godfather. Guilty. I asked Faraday what I'd get on a miller. Guilty.

Our PM says that results are "technically" in the form "Guilty," "Innocent," or "No Result." But I asked if there was any conceivable way we could get an innocent result. He said no.

Your question's just timewasting. It's not that timewasting is a terrible sin that can't be overcome. It's that it's so

pointless

. Like, the only reason I can conceive of for doing it is to look like you're doing something. The same thing with you voting 4nxi3ty. You ask some questions which are already answered in the thread, wait until you get the answer which is just a repeat of what's in the thread, and then vote. It all feels so fake.

---

Revisiting D1 and not giving in to my PoE paranoia:

Stannis

DCLXVI choose wagon goes through. Choose wagon is preferable to Stannis than a lynch wagon, but small team in Large Theme D1? Probably not. At the very least, would expect Stannis to be pressuring Feysal-choose wagon over DCLXVI's. What does that give us?

#1326
DLCXVI (14) -

Tyene Sand

,

Plessiezarus

, Minimum,

Regfan

, Pandora,

Feysal

,

Lyanna Stark

, Kortul,

Plums Yo Mamma

,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

StefanB

,

SnowStorm

, BBmolla

#1471
DLCXVI (15) -

Tyene Sand

,

Plessiezarus

,

Regfan

, Pandora, Feysal,

Lyanna Stark

, Kortul,

Plums Yo Mamma

,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

SnowStorm

,

Shadow1psc

,

bvoigt

,

DCLXVI

,

MagnaofIllusion

Minimum and BBmolla *both* have a jump off that is hugely meh, but neither of them jump off and actually do anything; they don't push Feysal choose wagon at all, so, meh meh. I would expect given Minimum-Stannis or BBmolla-Stannis that they would stay on for the cred rather than have DCLXVI take their spot. Again, meh, meh.

Discounting Pandora, kortul, BBmolla (also for role claiming), Minimum. Minimum is the weakest of these.

Leaves Thor (as Jal, choosing Feysal), Zdenek (as Seraphim, off on his lonesome on the greenknight wagon), and AurorusVox (as Mastermind of Sin, pushing Feysal wagon).

AV and Thor are the ones who's vote in this looks most scum motivated, but AV's claimed a role that is essentially saying "I'm not Aegon"; as Stannis, that would be a wee bit suicidal.

Hooray, I've PoE'd it down to Thor or Thor+Zdenek. I've already stated why that makes me think I'm totally wrong, but, this is paranoia-free-zone.

Aegon

Applying the same to the bvoigt lynch wagon.

#1465
bvoigt (12) -

greenknight

,

SnowStorm

, Pandora, Seraphim,

Plessiezarus

,

MagnaofIllusion

,

Plums Yo Mamma

,

Dolorous Edd

,

Shinori

,

Feysal

,

StefanB

, Mastermind of Sin

Discounting Pandora (again), Zdenek, AurorusVox.

Leaves Thor (Jal is voting no one the entire time), Minimum (also not voting anyone), BBmolla (not voting bvoigt, but is voting saporerint), and kortul (voting StefanB).

PoE leaves Thor, Minimum, or kortul.

---

At this point, I'm just tired of this Day. kortul remains my strongest scumread-by-play, though he only makes sense as Aegon and not as Stannis. I would heavily expect Thor-scum to try to be not actively antagonizing people, so I'm very meh on this lynch. But deadline is 36 hours so whatever.

I don't think AV is scum, as much as I want him to be, I don't think BBmolla is scum because I don't think he's Stannis by role and I don't think he's Aegon by play, and I don't think Zdenek or Pandora are scum by play.

So yeah.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 7, Votecount 10

Thor665 (4) - kortul, Zdenek, Minimum, Pandora

kortul (2) - Magua, AurorusVox
Zdenek (1) - Thor665

Not Voting (1):

BBmolla

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: 27th November at 14:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-11-27 10:30:47)

Prodding Minimum

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding AurorousVox

[Minimum]

I reject my prod and the Thorlynchless reality it represents.

[Thor665]

And decide it is best not to explain to Thor how I took his response as one of 'no change in reads evah!'

Also, will drop conversation line with Thor.
Also won't address Magua's post.

Desperately want Thor deadline lynch forced...derp.
The hell, Minimum?

[AurorusVox]

It's a thorgone conclusion that Thor is getting lynched today since

Apathy

vote: Thor

=====[]

[Thor665]

Claim: Obv. Scum

It's a bastard role, aparently. What it means is you come in and offer some opinions. One guy (your primary scum read) will call them scummy and have a long argument with you. Most of the other players who think your primary scumread is townish (for reasons they cannot explain) will then declare you as scum (also, for reasons they cannot explain). You will later be called scummy for pointing out how no one can explain these reads. Eventually you will become scum based on repitition of the idea that you are scum, and are also scum for saying that, and getting "defensive" when people call you scum with no actual backup.

Later you will also be felt annoying for pointing out how little thought anyone is putting into the game and how they're just going through motions...which is probably partly explained by there being a lot of scum still alive, yeah, But even those derp scum are being sold by your Obv. Scum role because they don't even know how to find and kill scum themselves even though it's (and this is shocking) sort of a major part of their wincon.

I stand by my other last reads.
Good luck town...though chances are I'm hating you right now

[Thor665]

And now the dribs and drabs go quiet.
Huzzah for the pro-town awesome.
I know this will mostly be ignored - but whatevs;

I still basically call Kortul and Magua town.
Minimum is being terrible but the claim feels town.
AV is being terrible but that claim also edges town.
I give AV the nod of that pair methinks, Minimum is being more terrible.
BBMolla is being the most terrible of all, and does not have as good of a claim to my mind.
Zdenek is scummy as all get out.
Pandora gets to be town just off PoE due to all my scum reads, but is also being semi-terrible, but actually manages to look like they really kinda care compared to everyone else, so I'll still edge town there.

[Thor665]

Day 7, Votecount 10

Thor665 (4) - kortul, Zdenek, Minimum, Pandora

kortul (2) - Magua, AurorusVox
Zdenek (1) - Thor665

Not Voting (1):

BBmolla

Let's also look here. With AV's move you have this;

kortul, Zdenek, Minimum, Pandora, AV

and this;

kortul (1) - Magua

Not Voting (1):

BBmolla

-------------------------------

I would say probably one of the players not voting me is scum. Neither of them particularly tried to defend me for town points though, so if they're scum maybe they thought I'd flip scum too? That might make sense - seem to suggest a higher chance of Stannis in that mix then.

Obviously 2+ scum are voting me at this stage.
Clearly I'm pointing at Zdenek and Minimum/AV.

I had forgotten that Kortul was still voting me, which hurts my reads a touch, as I seem to recall he started talking like I was townish. Someone should probably check on that.
Also, seriously, re-read Zdenek's interactions with me. Seriously, seriously. Even if you just want to do this Day Phase, it's still incredibly scummy and bad.

That's about what i got - I'm here for questions if any of you sheeple wanna try to pretend to look townish.

[Thor665]

Oh yeah - clearly AV/Kortul makes little sense as a pair So if one is Aegon you better sell the other as Stannis (and vice versa) if you want to push that way.

[BBmolla]

Been in a show so basically no time which is why I couldn't go find the answers Thor wanted.

I'll look during the night, even if he's lynched it's probably shit I should explore.

[BBmolla]

I'm also fairly confused if Thor said he was scum or if he was just being a jackass.

No idea.

[Thor665]

This is a prime example of BB's play and my issues with it.

@AV - Yes, Thor is scummy for questioning that shining paragon of obv. confirmed town...whut?

[Thor665]

@Minimum - why am I more likely scum than AV?

And as long as we're pointing out useless players not answering questions.

[Minimum]

That question's like asking why 3*sqrt{3} is bigger than 2+pi. It's silly and I'm not answering it.

[Thor665]

You can't explain why you preferred one lynch over the other and it's silly to ask to the point the question must be ignored?
Bullhookie.


(also had to Google 3*sqrt{3} to even begin to grok the analogy)

[Minimum]

You can't explain why you preferred one lynch over the other and it's silly to ask to the point the question must be ignored?

Yes to the latter.

[Thor665]

Since I'm now confirmed town - wanna try to answer the question now, as it is certainly viable and important at this stage?

[Minimum]

I rarely base decisions as to whether to answer a question on what alignment I think someone has.

[kortul]

Thor, i hope this isn't just a show for the sake of it, so guess your are town after all. I feel sad, but do not regret voting you, since you were my second strongest scum read, and the only viable alternative for the whole day was my lynch, and i know i am town. I do regret that most likely i was wrong about you being scum, since that means that without crosskill we are doomed. And apathy is the main reason for this, i think.

And Magua, do you even read my posts? Or what people answer?

I doubt he has a name cop power; what he actually has is a rolecop power, meaning that it's

my prediction that he used his rolecop early

on Regfan and didn't kill him until later because the scumteam was looking for power roles. It also doesn't make sense to use a namecop role on a suspicion of yours who hasn't claimed, and it didn't make sense for him to claim when he did.

It would have made more sense if he used the name cop power to see if Tim really was Jamie Lannister

(since that would confirm him as town and stop the lynch from going through), but he didn't because he was looking for threats and not looking for ways to help the town.

The bolded parts are logical. First one helped me to realize, that if 4nx didn't use claimed power that night, he knew that Shinori saw someone else, and he can safely claim. And point about Tim shows the absence of town motivation in the usage of claimed power. Show me where that was discussed before?

[Thor665]

@Minimum - So why isn't it worth answering the question now?

@Kortul - YEAH STUPID APATHY IS THE REASON! HU-FREAKIN'-ZAH FOR TOWN!
And I said that.
And was called scummy for saying it - and kinda hate you all. Don't remind me about the apathy, I'm well the hell aware of the apathy that was my lynch and how no case existed, believe me.

[Thor665]

I mean, look at this Minimum derp fest.

"I'mma not explain mah reads and choices....trolololol ::drool::"

It's ruddy terrible, and is what I've been dealing with for the last two day phases straight.
But I'm the scummy one because I'm not cooperating with town and am sticking to a focus on Zdenek who is town "because!" and I'm scummy for not getting that.

[Thor665]

@Kortul - and what the hell? When I was mentioning how there wasn't a case on me and it was all apathy and confirm bias - why didn't you agree that it was true!?!

[Minimum]

@Minimum - So why isn't it worth answering the question now?

Have you tried understanding my analogy? I thought it was rather apt.

[Thor665]

My awareness of your analogy is you presented two rather close numbers and suggested explaining the difference would be tough.

ALSO I DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR ANALOGY - STOP DODGING AND JUST GROW A SET AND ANSWER - YOU DERPED LYNCHED ME SO NOW YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO HOP THROUGH SOME HOOPS - THAT'S HOW IT WORKS.