A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Minimum]

And Aegon was the faction that would've been suspicious of Molla. Stannis faction being split up would also suggest Stannis the person as lone person responsible for the nightkill. And AV did seem like a PR which would also suggest he was actually Stannis the person as only flipped scum PR is Aegon the person.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 8, Votecount 1

Not Voting (6):

Minimum, kortul, Magua, Zdenek, AurorusVox, Pandora

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: 13th November at 1:00am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-12-12 21:00:00)

[Zdenek]

I reread the first 20 pages, and the only thing that stands out to me, is that the list of people who expressed suspicion of Minimum early on and the list of people night killed killed has a big intersection: Plessiezarus, MoI, Lyanna, Benmage, Regfan, Tyene.

[Minimum]

Yeah, I'm being spiteful.

But feel free to ignore the significant piece of evidence against AV I just brought up.

[Pandora]

And Aegon was the faction that would've been suspicious of Molla. Stannis faction being split up would also suggest Stannis the person as lone person responsible for the nightkill. And AV did seem like a PR which would also suggest he was actually Stannis the person as only flipped scum PR is Aegon the person.

The way this entire post makes no sense notwithstanding. Why would Aegon be suspicious of Molla? What are you talking about with Stannis being split up?

[kortul]

^^
Same questions. I can see how AV buing busy in RL may explain one missing kill for the night, but not the part quoted by Pandora.

[AurorusVox]

Yeah, I'm being spiteful.

But feel free to ignore the significant piece of evidence against AV I just brought up.

Sorry to burst your bubble but I posted on-site during the night phase.

Pseudovote: Kortul

[Zdenek]

Yeah, I'm being spiteful.

But feel free to ignore the significant piece of evidence against AV I just brought up.

Which piece?
The activity one was lame.

All we know for sure is that the Stannis faction had a traitor. We don't know that Stannis had to do the NK, and anyway, that's unlikely because on N1 AVox role stopped Shadow.

[Minimum]

There's almost zero evidence supporting AVox rolestopping Shadow.

And Aegon was the faction that would've been suspicious of Molla. Stannis faction being split up would also suggest Stannis the person as lone person responsible for the nightkill. And AV did seem like a PR which would also suggest he was actually Stannis the person as only flipped scum PR is Aegon the person.

The way this entire post makes no sense notwithstanding. Why would Aegon be suspicious of Molla? What are you talking about with Stannis being split up?

Got my scum groups mixed up. Feel a bit silly now. Right, no, um, Stannis is the one that would've been more suspicious of Molla since his claim made more sense as coming from Aegonscum so if we're assuming only one faction killed, it'd be more likely to be Stannis. And AegonAV'd be on his own and thus responsible for sending in the kill. But that's not the faction we want, which is annoying.

Yes, you did post, AV, but your pattern of activity still very much suggests that you could've failed to send in a kill.

[Zdenek]

There's almost zero evidence supporting AVox rolestopping Shadow.

Missing kill n1 and shadow surviving n1.

[AurorusVox]

So we go from "significant" to "suggest" and "could've"

[kortul]

Took a look at AV posts - during the night period he posted 3 identical messages in three different games, so i don't think he would forget to submit a kill here while he was around, all it takes is one PM. Still think he is scum, though.

@Zdenek, i think i remember you saying before that MoS possibly protecting Shadow doesn't exclude him from being Stannis. Did you change your view on this? If yes, what's the reason?

[Minimum]

That doesn't follow at all, kortul. Posting identical messages doesn't require any thought.

There's almost zero evidence supporting AVox rolestopping Shadow.

Missing kill n1 and shadow surviving n1.

There are oodles of potential explanations for that. Shadow dying N2 is also at least twice as unlikely if there was a failed kill on him N1 (considering he was the obvious protection target).

So we go from "significant" to "suggest" and "could've"

Moving in place as it were. If I look at your activity, the notion seems very plausible to me. Since I lack a good alternative explanation, that makes it significant.

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding Magua

[Minimum]

Okay, we're doing rereads right now and looking purely at connections (because subjective scumhunting has been a disaster for me this game). I was pessimistic about finding anything that would help us find Stannis scum, given that Feysal was a traitor who might not even have known his masters and DC was Chosen D1 (meaning both that there are fewer connections to him and that it's WIFOM to whether scum

wanted

him to get chosen and manoeuvre the vig kill). But so far, I've only ISO'd DC, and I've already found something juicy.

Everyone, open DC's ISO for yourselves. Notice the players he keeps interacting with, declaring reads on, etc. Almost every single one of them has flipped town--with the exception of Feysal, whom DC suspects. (I think it's safe to assume he didn't know Feysal was on his team--Stannis's faction wouldn't know Theon was a potential ally.)

He makes almost no references to people who haven't flipped yet. He answers questions from me and kortul (and his side of the interactions is pretty null). And then there's this:

I am too tired to ISO my second strongest suspicion atm, and even if after the ISO i will believe he is also scum, using CHOOSE on him would be more sensible, therefore i will do the ISO tomorrow.

"I haven't read someone, but I bet you after I do, they'll be scum!"

Top notch stuff from the guy with 5 posts

all of which talk about trying to catch up.

The content from the rest of Kortul's last post was fine, nice misrep on him.

I'm going to second benmage's request for whatever meta thing you had on him.

I am going to say something that sounds completely counterintuitive:

kortul is highly UNLIKELY to be buddies with DC.

There are some confident/competent players who deliberately make bold moves and vigorously defend their partners (which is why I wouldn't rule out, say, a Magua-Zdenek scumteam without looking more closely at it) under the shield of. Other times, people fall into the trap of weakly defending and making excuses for partners because they really don't want them lynched, or just try to be "objective." But DC's post reads like clumsy buddying because of how hyperbolic it is. I don't think he would rush in to defend kortul like that out of the blue as a partner.

Caveat: I decided to check if this pattern would hold in the scum game DC linked to before. (Here is the link.) If he'd played similarly, I'd be more confident that he wasn't linked to kortul, but upon a closer look, it turns out he

was

telling the truth about playing completely differently here. For one thing, he comes across as a lot more competent in the Hard-Boiled game--at least, competent enough to mention at least

one

of his teammates. He busses one of his scumbuddies (Thomith) for most of the game. The other (Nacho) he doesn't talk about a lot, but isn't afraid to say something outright positive about (although this is after he'd already said negative things about Nacho, so the psychology is different). I still think the WIFOM "scum don't buddy up to their buddies" tell works, because he hedges his bets about Nacho and exaggerates how scummy Thomith is. (Sadly, I'm not motivated enough to read every single one of DC's scum games to fit more data points to this trend. :p)

tl;dr version: We shouldn't lynch kortul today, because if he's scum, he's probably Aegon.

Thoughts?

[Minimum]

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[quote name="Feysal"]I also looked at MoS, and after seeing how he consistently attacked Salamence and later Saporerint, I feel better about him. I think someone once asked me why Plumamma would be more town for the case on bvoigt if their faction was divided, and it is the same thing here. We have caught two Aegon goons, and their remaining members are more likely to know their team. They cannot all be unknown to each other.[/quote]
This is

interesting.

.

I didn't see anything in Feysal's ISO to either rule out or increase the likelihood of his knowing red's identity, but this looks like a legitimate slip.

Magua and Zdenek, are you guys

actually

the Stannis team?

[Minimum]

The actual link, since I messed up the formatting:

Feysal

, do you have more thoughts on the game, analysis, what are your reads other than Starbuck/Scumhunter? You were more or less active with chooses on you, and like 2-3 posts per day afterwards.

I think you mean one post per 2-3 days? Or maybe you were referring to day phases? I have been busy, and I've had little energy to spend on mafia. I have looked at some other players though, including mockingjaye, who I continue to believe to be town. I simply agree with many of her opinions, and find her stances understandable. I also looked at MoS, and after seeing how he consistently attacked Salamence and later Saporerint, I feel better about him. I think someone once asked me why Plumamma would be more town for the case on bvoigt if their faction was divided, and it is the same thing here. We have caught two Aegon goons, and their remaining members are more likely to know their team. They cannot all be unknown to each other.

Also, for your edification, a selection from the next post (adding stuff unrelated to MoS because all his reads here seem like a giant ball of WIFOM designed to torment me):

With four days remaining, you need to start pushing if you actually want someone besides Scumhunter lynched.

MoS is being voted by Zdenek and Tierce. Here my reads are not strong, but I'm leaning town on them. As for MoS, the way he attacked Salamence/Saporerint makes him considerably less likely to be Aegon aligned, but other than that I have no read on him. I did somewhat like the display of effort with the number analysis, but I rather doubt its usefulness. I would be least reluctant to vote him, but that is not saying much.

The rest of the votes are all over the place, and many of their targets are questionable to say the least. I continue to have faith in BBmolla, and have no idea what the hell Benmage thinks he's doing voting him. Magua remains an unknown quantity, but I'm not about to rush to vote him with only my strongest suspect for company. I think kortul actually had a fair point about Shinori, and how his actions don't have a scum motivation - of course they don't make sense as any alignment, but if he had scum partners, they would presumably have advised Shinori to act differently. Finally there is kortul, and I have never understood what that case is about. He has seemed reasonable though, and I have not forgotten Tierce defending him on meta.

Do you think this sounds like someone who believes that MoS is not scum but is leaving himself open to mislynch him, or thinks there is a reasonable chance that MoS is his teammate?

I'm sure I made an incorrect assumption somewhere, though.

[kortul]

Minimum, for me it sounds more like Feysal thought that there is a reasonable chance that MoS is his teammate. He is analytic player, and spent some efforts to check MoS stance on Salamence/Saporeint, it would be also logical to check whether MoS is possible teammate. I believe that MoS stance on redFF/DCL is bad, yet Feysal didn't mention this at all. If he wanted an option to mislynch him at any time, tying him to Stannis would be more logical, after he said that MoS is less likely to be Aegon.

Can

everyone

(including AV) give their opinions, whether 5 Aegon - 2+1 Stannis scenario is possible/makes any sense (ie 2 Aegon remaining)?

[Magua]

Being prodded over the weekend sucks. Posting to get Faraday off my back. Will read tonight.

[Pandora]

Minimum, for me it sounds more like Feysal thought that there is a reasonable chance that MoS is his teammate. He is analytic player, and spent some efforts to check MoS stance on Salamence/Saporeint, it would be also logical to check whether MoS is possible teammate. I believe that MoS stance on redFF/DCL is bad, yet Feysal didn't mention this at all. If he wanted an option to mislynch him at any time, tying him to Stannis would be more logical, after he said that MoS is less likely to be Aegon.

The way you put that makes it sound like you don't think Feysal knew who his buddy was, which Minimum's case is assuming he does. Assuming he did know, not tying to his 'own team' would be a slip because he wouldn't be thinking about it that way, I think. As in he would already know MoS isn't Stannis, so he wouldn't automatically think of tying him to Stannis.

Can

everyone

(including AV) give their opinions, whether 5 Aegon - 2+1 Stannis scenario is possible/makes any sense (ie 2 Aegon remaining)?

I think the odds of there being 5 Aegon and 3 Stannis, considering the two Stannis flipped didn't have uber kill everything powers, is too silly to even consider.

[Zdenek]

Do you think this sounds like someone who believes that MoS is not scum but is leaving himself open to mislynch him, or thinks there is a reasonable chance that MoS is his teammate?

What do you think?

I would say leaves open to mislynch as possible Stannis scum.

Kortul, my guess is that the scum teams are 3-1 (traitor), 2-2 (split).

[Magua]

Guess you somehow mixed bvoight and BBmola in your head (and in the post).

Yes, stupid b-names.

Anyways. Disbelieve that the teams are 5 Aegon to 3 Stannis (especially with 1 of those Stannis being a traitor). If it's 5 Aegon/4 Stannis then game is already lollerskates, so I'm entirely ignoring that because why not? Leaves 4:4.

Only interested in lynching Stannis. If it's 4:4 (that is, 1 Aegon and 2 Stannis left) lynching Aegon is a loss. If it's 5:4 (2 Aegon/2 Stannis left) then can't win anyway, so will just stick to it.

I don't think that AurorusVox is Stannis. Could possibly be Aegon, don't actually care. Not lynching him.

Zdenek is the most likely to be Stannis, from D1 votes. Huge townread on him from previous, though, makes me reticent.

kortul is meh. Continues to ask pointless questions. Rethinking scumread based on kills; BBmolla dying alone means either an unsubmitted kill or a double kill, and I sort of have to believe that kortul-scum of either alignment would kill me over BBmolla regardless.

Pandora is meh; setup spec with kortul that's pointless, no lynch idea is meh, weak read on Zdenek, just seems so empty.

Minimum is entirely too opportunistic in the last few two pages (eg, inactivity accusation directed at AurorusVox when it's trivial to check), just seems to be mudslinging in general.

Gut feel at the moment is that Stannis is Zdenek + Minimum with Minimum being the busser D1, Aegon is AurorusVox. Want to vote Zdenek.

[kortul]

@Zdenek, i think i remember you saying before that MoS possibly protecting Shadow doesn't exclude him from being Stannis. Did you change your view on this? If yes, what's the reason?

[Minimum]

Minimum is entirely too opportunistic in the last few two pages (eg, inactivity accusation directed at AurorusVox when it's trivial to check), just seems to be mudslinging in general.

And I did check. He may not have stopped existing altogether but I can see he was seriously inactive (note also that the double kill also makes somewhat more sense if you assume it's coming from an inactive AV just sending in a quick kill considering Thor was pushing him fairly recently). Don't really see how it's supposed to be opportunistic when I'm accusing him of being Aegon (and as scum it would be incredibly obvious to me that it would point to him being Aegon).

[Minimum]

Kortulscum looks distinctly more awkward in Dresden Files (which also had multiball) than he's been here.