A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Magua]

And I did check. He may not have stopped existing altogether but I can see he was seriously inactive (note also that the double kill also makes somewhat more sense if you assume it's coming from an inactive AV just sending in a quick kill considering Thor was pushing him fairly recently). Don't really see how it's supposed to be opportunistic when I'm accusing him of being Aegon (and as scum it would be incredibly obvious to me that it would point to him being Aegon).

I had read your 4175 without fully processing your 4183, and thought that you were going around trying to push AV-Stannis and thus push for a lynch on him.

The more I think about it, the more I'm really not interested in either an AV or a kortul lynch today; they're either town or Aegon and in either case a bad lynch. Zdenek > Minimum > Pandora.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 8, Votecount 2

Not Voting (6):

Minimum, kortul, Magua, Zdenek, AurorusVox, Pandora

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: 13th December at 1:00am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-12-12 21:00:00)

[Zdenek]

@Zdenek, i think i remember you saying before that MoS possibly protecting Shadow doesn't exclude him from being Stannis. Did you change your view on this? If yes, what's the reason?

Well, that doesn't exclude him from being Stannis, but I've got to bet on town having a protective role.

Magua, what do you think about NK's and minimum being scum?

[Zdenek]

Magua, is the only that you want to vote me day one voting patterns?
Are there any votes from my slot that you think are scummy or is you suspicion of me based solely on you doubting that Minimum is Stannis because they unvoted DCL?

[Minimum]

Am completely fucked over for all my classes, so I probably won't do any rereads tonight, but random scattered questions/points:

1) Magua, why do you personally think that kortul and AV aren't Stannis? I know why

I

think they probably aren't (although I'd still like to do some ISOs to make sure no one else fits best), but your post had nothing whatsoever to do with them. Also, there's not a single player that you think looks independently

town

? Just "meh" at best?

(I remember I had questions about your stance on Thor yesterday, since you'd called him a suspect earlier but were behaving as though you

knew

he was town...but since you're already pretty much confirmed scum from my PoV, I can't really be bothered. Honestly, the biggest point in your defence is that my having a scumread on someone means that player is town without a doubt.)

2) AurorusVox, are you at least going to

try

to act like you aren't scum, given that town is about to lose the game, or maybe help us hunt for the other scum faction? Or are you hoping to coast on "He's probably Aegon" and your roleclaim?

3) kortul, you gave your thoughts on Feysal's last post discussing MoS, but what about the one before? What do you think is stronger evidence: my point clearing you as Stannis, or my point clearing AV as Stannis?

4) Zdenek, your nightkill analysis sucks given that half of the players on that list actually had town reads on us before they died (although I'll grant you PlessZar and MoI wanted us to hang). Tammy even

motivated

us. Is there a reason aside from the nightkills that you think we're most likely to be Stannis? Walk us through the steps that led you to that conclusion--your proclamation that we were Stannis came out of nowhere. What do you think about the other players in this game--town, Stannis, Aegon, not sure?

By the way, I realized something: if you believe that Feysal was telling the truth about being a neighbourizer to Jeyne Poole (CES doesn't, but I could see Feysal thinking it couldn't hurt), then Zdenek is either Stannis or town. Zdenek can only be Aegon if Jeyne Poole is his fakeclaim and Feysal was lying. I think Feysal would be more likely to tell the truth if Jeyne Poole was town than Stannis, though. (And come to think of it, wouldn't he be more likely to neighbourize the Stannis faction, since Reek in the books escapes with Jeyne to meet Stannis's army...in which case...he doesn't know who his teammates are...*sobs*)

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding AurorusVox

[Magua]

Magua, is the only that you want to vote me day one voting patterns?
Are there any votes from my slot that you think are scummy or is you suspicion of me based solely on you doubting that Minimum is Stannis because they unvoted DCL?

The suspicion of you is that Zdenek-not-Stannis means either:
1. AurorusVox is Stannis, or
2. DCLXVI was being bussed by the entirety of his team D1 in a Large Theme, or
3. There's only one Stannis left (which would also make #2 true)

I don't find any of those likely. So you're PoE. I don't think that the DCL votes on D1 clear Pandora/kortul/Minimum (because I find it more likely that one of them was bussing than AV is Stannis); I simply find it incredibly unlikely that an entire team powerbussed DCLXVI over the equally likely Feysal.

Am completely fucked over for all my classes, so I probably won't do any rereads tonight, but random scattered questions/points:

1) Magua, why do you personally think that kortul and AV aren't Stannis? I know why

I

think they probably aren't (although I'd still like to do some ISOs to make sure no one else fits best), but your post had nothing whatsoever to do with them. Also, there's not a single player that you think looks independently

town

? Just "meh" at best?

AV I went over with kortul in 4166/4168 (replace BBmolla with bvoigt in 4168). If he's scum, he makes more sense to me as bvoigt-buddy.

As for kortul: My ego compels me to believe that kortul-Stannis would find it more advantageous to shoot me than to shoot BBmolla. Or, in more general, BBmolla was killed by both teams in preference to me, and fuck that noise, BBmolla was barely playing. Leads me to believe that my thoughts D7 were off-base.

(I remember I had questions about your stance on Thor yesterday, since you'd called him a suspect earlier but were behaving as though you

knew

he was town...but since you're already pretty much confirmed scum from my PoV, I can't really be bothered. Honestly, the biggest point in your defence is that my having a scumread on someone means that player is town without a doubt.)

This is an example of the mudslinging that I'm seeing in your posts. Not the "confirmed scum" bit, but the "as though you knew he was town" bit. It's subtle, but what sets it off is that it doesn't make sense in a multiscum game, you should know it doesn't make sense in a multiscum game, and yet you throw it out anyway.

By the way, I realized something: if you believe that Feysal was telling the truth about being a neighbourizer to Jeyne Poole (CES doesn't, but I could see Feysal thinking it couldn't hurt), then Zdenek is either Stannis or town. Zdenek can only be Aegon if Jeyne Poole is his fakeclaim and Feysal was lying. I think Feysal would be more likely to tell the truth if Jeyne Poole was town than Stannis, though. (And come to think of it, wouldn't he be more likely to neighbourize the Stannis faction, since Reek in the books escapes with Jeyne to meet Stannis's army...in which case...he doesn't know who his teammates are...*sobs*)

I hadn't thought about that, but looking back, I distinctly remember Zdenek's claim in response to Feysal didn't make sense as to why he would do it in response to something confirmed scum said. Makes a lot more sense as some sort of claim gambit.

[Pandora]

Yes Zdenek would have to be Stannis to be scum which we have said a billion times I'm glad we cleared that up. >_> Unless we're talking Worst Role hot scum on scum mason action again. Minimum I have a question for you, if Magua is 'confirmed scum' to you why do you want to vote AVox?

[Minimum]

Magua, the question was admittedly sloppy (since I just mentioned something that I vaguely remember niggling at me two weeks ago). But it's not mudslinging unless you think I was trying to get you to self-vote. My point was that at the end of Day 6/beginning of Day 7, you seemed to suspect Thor (although not as much you did some other players). Then it seemed like you were talking to Thor as though you didn't want him lynched but it was such a

shame

that his antitown behaviour was distracting everyone from the real scum. I never followed up on it at the time because my head wasn't really in the game then, but it felt off. That said, this seems to have been the post that gave me that impression, and it's a lot more genuine than I remembered. To be honest, I might have had a kneejerk reaction to you implying that Thor wouldn't be a perfect lynch, because PoE as well as Thor's play seemed to point so strongly to his being scum.

I see your point on AV; can you explain why kortul

wouldn't

kill you if he was Aegon (as opposed to Stannis)?

And Pandora, our "pseudovote" on AV came before we decided that he was probably Aegon if he was scum (although CES and I each think so for completely different reasons). I thought it was obvious from our most recent posts that we were reconsidering. I'm not going to call either scumteam before I do a lot more rereading. If I had to make a decision this instant, I would

probably

choose Magua, but I can think of several objective points in his favour--in fact, I'm...um, losing...most of my confidence...as I...write this post. So yeah. Despite the fact that Magua is almost confirmed scum, he's probably town.

If you think that sentence makes no sense whatsoever, then you don't know what it's like inside my brain.

[Minimum]

Also, scum are more likely to assume that a random player is town even in multiball, simply because scum tend to get "Everyone looks town!" syndrome. But I really didn't put that much thought into it--it was just a minor thing that I thought might be worth questioning Magua on, but didn't even factor into why I suspected him.

[Minimum]

Okay. Let's try something different.

Magua-Zdenek
Magua-kortul
Magua-AurorusVox
kortul-Zdenek
kortul-AurorusVox
Zdenek-AurorusVox
Magua-Pandora
kortul-Pandora
Zdenek-Pandora
AurorusVox-Pandora

I think Pandora is probably town, but it can't hurt to consider them. (It's someone else's responsibility to do the partnerships involving us.) Over the next few days, I'll see if I can rule any of these out or confirm them.

[Minimum]

EBWOP: replace "if I can rule any of these out" with "if anyone can rule any of these out." Because I opened my first ISO, and then realized I'm both lazy and bad at WIFOM.

[Minimum]

This is so annoying. I want to actually use logic to solve this, but it's impossible without knowing anything about the set-up, the number of scum, or the team distribution. I don't get how this can be 4-4 with weakened scumteams. I'm coming up with crazy theories like Stannis having three goons and two traitors, or Aegon having a group of two who can kill and a group of three who can't.

Anyway, if Aegon is 2-2 and Varys is "informed," that means his partner is someone like Tyrion, and a reasonable assumption is that they both knew the identities of mockinjaye and bvoigt (although possibly not the other way around). Meaning mjaye's/4nxi3ty's/bvoigt's ISOs might not be helpful for Aegon tells, but Sapo's/Salamence's would be, as would references survivors make to mjaye/4nxi3ty/bvoigt/Sala/sapo.

==========

Figured it couldn't hurt to look for Aegon, even if we don't want to lynch them. And Salamence seems like the type to leave trails to his partners. Anyway, the first time Salamence interacts with a non-Minimum living player is here. His response to pappums could easily be distancing, but I'll look at pappums rat's side of the interactions more closely when I analyze Zdenek.

Then we have this list. I had the brilliant piece of insight that Sal probably wouldn't put Pandora as second most town if they were teammates...and then I cried. MoS, mockingjaye, and bvoigt are all listed one after the other in null. My head then proceeded to explode from WIFOM. (If Sal knew that all three were Aegon, then he would not do that unless it was either a signal or a deliberate attempt to subvert people looking at lists. But he definitely would not do it by coincidence.) Then I remembered why I usually don't bother rereading flipped scum. ANYWAY. Other placements: Magua/Cow is in the middle of the town list, while pappums/Zdenek is in the middle of the null list (two spaces above MoS-mjaye-bvoigt) and Petyr/kortul last in null (so none is more or less likely).

Sal's reaction to bvoigt is adorably awkward. Ooh, makes a throwaway comment about MoS being lol for "voting and choosing the same player." I'd say it was distancing if every other attack he made wasn't equally silly. Then comes out of the blue to say that we and MoS shouldn't be chosen because we "aren't paying enough attention to make a good shot." Goddammit, he's just toying with me, now. Is that the kind of defence he'd make of a partner?

Hmm.

Hmm.

At first I was going to say that his case on MoS was a point in favour of AV (considering that his distancing with bvoigt consists of the brilliant, "Are you scum?"). But with Sal's other scum reads just drops a vote with no explanation, asks them maybe one pointed question, get defensive, etc. On the one hand, he does get pretty defensive here (like he does with MoI), but he also makes a "case" that consists of posting quotes of MoS, but then hedges at the end and doesn't actually vote him. I could see MoS coaching him to do it (assuming daytalk)--it's like he's trying to go on the record with having a negative opinion of him. Someone less prone to confirmation bias/WIFOM paralysis weigh in on their exchange, please? That said, MoS's side of the exchange reads as fairly natural. I need to read Sal's other scum games to see just how crafty he can be.

(Okay, the end. So this was good for nothing but making me more paranoid.)

I'm not sure I'll bother doing Sapo, because not only are all their posts giant text walls, but they're probably smart enough not to out their teammates.

[Minimum]

Just ISO'd Sal in Disney Villains Mafia. Gah. He doesn't actually play anything like he does here. He calls himself a "master busser" in post-game, but aside from some soft distancing with roflcopter, he devotes his focus mainly to people who aren't his on his team.

Well, that's annoying.

*starts screaming hysterically*

*runs around like a chicken with her head cut off*

*waits for CES to come back and talk sense into me.*

Why did I think this was a good idea, again?

Oh, right. Because it's better than studying.

[AurorusVox]

Fuck has it been that long since I last posted here?

Can

everyone

(including AV) give their opinions, whether 5 Aegon - 2+1 Stannis scenario is possible/makes any sense (ie 2 Aegon remaining)?

I don't think this makes sense. A Clash of Kings mafia had 2x 4 man teams. A Storm of Swords had 5x scum and I think (??) some third parties, but they were split as 1 and 2. There are no role PMs for that game so I can't say whether they match up with possible 5:2+1 here buuuut I think 4x4 makes more sense given ACOK.

I think lynch should be between [Kortul/Pandora/Zdenek]. Even with Minimum as an outsider given the wonky push on my slot, we still have 66% chance to hit scum there (I'm clearing Magua because he's obvobvTown), and tbh I think we're probably looking at the scumteams with all three there anyway.

[kortul]

Ok, everyone gave their input to my question. Everybody thinks that 5 - 2+1 is unlikely. If we do have 2 Stannis around, even they "agree" with that, which means they are smart enough to blend with a town.

3) kortul, you gave your thoughts on Feysal's last post discussing MoS, but what about the one before? What do you think is stronger evidence: my point clearing you as Stannis, or my point clearing AV as Stannis?

As i said, i am busy until my exam, so mostly skimming for now. I just skipped your reasons for clearing me as Stannis, since if they were questionable, you would be called by someone else already. As for your point clearing AV as Stannis, if it's that idea he was siteflaking during the night, i doubt that of all the games he would forget exactly this game. He found time to post in all open games after all. I believe more in my analysis of MoS stance on redFF/DCL.

Since Aegon was Joat, i believe Stannis (character) has some powers as well, so missing kill can be a result of one of such powers.

Finally someone (Minimum) understands me - i am also trying to use logic, and the lack of information about setup is driving me mad. I was mulling over the idea to look for possible pairs for some time today, but simply don't have time until Saturday evening or Sunday. Minimum coming to this separately and generally analyzing things today makes me feel better about the slot. Magua is involved in play as well, and is finally reading and thinking, unlike yesterday.

And did anybody have any common games with AV or knows his playing style? Is he always that passive/lazy?

[AurorusVox]

Do you want selfmeta?

[Minimum]

kortul, I was talking about Feysal's first post, where he essentially clears MoS because he's not Aegon. That sounds like he was genuinely scumhunting, but slipped by only thinking in terms of Aegon/not-Aegon. So if he

did

know his teammates, that's a big strike against MoS being Stannis. The second quote, where he

does

consider MoS as potential Stannis, is more ambiguous, so I wanted feedback on it.

(Not to go all hydra dissonance, but AV being Aegon because there was only one kill and he might have flaked is more CES's pet theory. I personally don't think there's enough evidence to corroborate it. Right now, we aren't seeing eye-to-eye on set-up speculation.)

Magua, since I know you've been around, could you explain why you didn't think kortul would kill you if he was Aegon?

p-edit: Actually, what I personally want is a confession, AV.

[Minimum]

And to answer your question, if i were Stannis scum, i would have killed Magua, and if i were Aegon scum, i would have killed AV. Very likely to hit a rival, and at worst it removes one tunneler from me.

Why does your answer change depending on what scum faction you're on?

[Minimum]

And AV, for the record, my request for a confession if you're Aegon (or if you're lone Stannis) was serious. It's the one thing that'll save you if you're scum.

[AurorusVox]

'kay, but I'm not Aegon.
Look I was hoping I'd get killed off after my claim made me obvTown.

Minnie's push on me is making me all sorts of paranoid though.

[Minimum]

ARE YOU CLAIMING STANNIS?

If you say so.

Look, from my PoV, for you to be town, at most one other player in the game can also be town. And while everyone else makes me feel

bad

about suspecting them, you've been playing like scum since you replaced into the game. So I need to see a lot from you to get me to believe that you're the townie and not people like Pandora and kortul.

Question: where did the 66% number come from?

[kortul]

Quick answers before going to sleep.

kortul, I was talking about Feysal's first post, where he essentially clears MoS because he's not Aegon. That sounds like he was genuinely scumhunting, but slipped by only thinking in terms of Aegon/not-Aegon. So if he

did

know his teammates, that's a big strike against MoS being Stannis. The second quote, where he

does

consider MoS as potential Stannis, is more ambiguous, so I wanted feedback on it.

I don't understand, do you think that Feysal

knew

his teammates or not? And why? Will check the original quotes in depth on weekend, but based on this brief, you say that Feysal was mainly scumhunting Aegon. It only makes sense, from his perspective pushing/lynching Aegon advances his win condition, and hunting for Stannis may accidentally give valid points to the town/rivals, so he was less genuine/more vague there. Want to hear your reasoning to compare later.

Why does your answer change depending on what scum faction you're on?

I think AV is Stannis scum, so naturally would shoot him if i were Aegon. And if i were Stannis, Magua is more likely to be Aegon than AV, so i would shoot Magua.

AV, if your selfmeta would be with examples (links) that can be checked later, then yes, i am interested. But if it is just a simple statement, than not really.

[Zdenek]

Is there a reason aside from the nightkills that you think we're most likely to be Stannis? Walk us through the steps that led you to that conclusion--your proclamation that we were Stannis came out of nowhere. What do you think about the other players in this game--town, Stannis, Aegon, not sure?

Well I think AVox is probably town because I suspect that town has a protective role, and I think that there are good reasons to think that Pandora is town mostly brought up by Regfan earlier in the game. So that leaves You, Kortul and Magua as the remaining scum. Because of your interactions with Sala and Bvoigt I am inclined to think that you aren't Aegon aligned, so that leaves you as Stannis. I think that Kortul as Aegon makes sense. That leaves Magua as probably Stannis. Though, my views on Magua's and Kortul's alignments aren't as strong.

I am deeply saddened by AVox's scum list.

Anyway, I haven't read any of the long posts yet. I'll be back tomorrow.

[Magua]

Then it seemed like you were talking to Thor as though you didn't want him lynched but it was such a shame that his antitown behaviour was distracting everyone from the real scum.

That's because I didn't want him lynched D7. I wasn't going around calling him confirmed obvtown, but it's pretty clear that I wanted kortul lynched in preference to Thor.

I see your point on AV; can you explain why kortul wouldn't kill you if he was Aegon (as opposed to Stannis)?

Magua, since I know you've been around, could you explain why you didn't think kortul would kill you if he was Aegon?

I would expect kortul-Aegon to kill me, but since I don't really care about whether its kortul-town or kortul-Aegon at the moment at all, it's not gotten a lot of thought cycles.