Open 456: Faith Plus One [Game Over]

Baseline · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:08 pm

Radelle / Zars interactions with other slots:

Radelles attack on D_G in Post 40 and Post 44 points against them being partners quite strongly. Her reasoning behind the read explained in Post 79 strengthens that and the phrasing of "I can't tell if Declan's post 76 is him flailing or going crazy, or both, really." is really really not talking about partners. Her questioning of whether he reads on phone or forum via noticing him lurking down the bottom in Post 99 also points against them being partners. Think I'm content enough just from that to rule out that partnership though I'm sure there's also plenty more ruling against it. This rules out #14 completely.

Radelle noticing the town-tell that I found on Shos as well in Post 78 is a pretty strong point against them being partners. Zars replacing in post in Post 752 of him stating that he thinks I'm clearing people for silly reasons and that he thinks the strength of my town-read on Shos is too strong points against them being partners, if they were he'd be content just letting me continue and use it against me. All up content to rule out #13 from it.

Radelle never mentions RC, Zars replace in post Post 752 states a fairly solid town-read on the slot, turns it around in Post 1070 based on VCA analysis (Which I still think is useless and wrong more than it's right) and due to interactions with City. Can kind of work as scum distancing with partner and hoping to not look bad with their flip, see nothing from this direction of interaction that rules this one out. Will need to look at RCs interaction with Radelle and Zar to work out #7.

Radelles attitude and questioning of Abaddon in Post 222 points against them being partners. Zars read on him was a weak town-read until he started prod-dodging then stated that he reminded him of another players scum game in Post 930 which isn't what scum tend to say about their partner. Think I'm near happy enough to rule out #10 but want to just look at the other-way interaction given that this one isn't as strong non-partner-wise as some of the others.

Radelle never mentions Demon / FourTroubles slot. Zars replace in post, Post 752 is very bare and empty about Demon, it has no mention of FT which is understandable to a degree and Demon had only posted about 10ish posts with none having a super amount of content so think the lack of elaboration is probably a null-point towards the partnership. Zars entire "Scum forgetting each other both ways" re: Demon in Post 916 isn't something I think he'd go hunting for to defend a partner with and if he were using that as reasoning to prevent their lynch I don't think he'd still be keeping him up in his suspect pool given the linkage he created towards him. Also remember at the top of my head that Antiheros "We don't know where Zars vote is going, guess, I actually want it answered" blatantly pointed against them being partners. All up happy enough to rule out #4.

So all up if Zar is somehow mafia which I very much doubt he can only potentially be partners with Majjify or RC.

Going to take an hour break, then will get onto the next person.

Spoiler: Partnerships

Gentlemen Bastards · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:40 pm

Shos interactions with other slots:

Shos post towards Declan in Post 26 points against them being partners, his turnaround of read on him in Post 64 is very natural and points against them being partners very heavily. His Post 69 where he points out Declan and Bulb aren't partners and states his intentions don't make sense as partners as he'd be locking himself into bussing and potentially clearing a townie from it. His pushing on D_G in Post 737 and his argument with me over my read on that slot in Post 745 and after that really completely rule it out. So that removes #15 from the potential pool.

Shos and Abaddons early game interactions and back and forth point against them being scum, Shos town-read on the Abaddon slot and how it's stated as 'towntowntowntown' in Post 254 point towards non-partners, scum don't state such reads on each other, never seen it happen in fact. Him pressuring Abaddon for a claim in Post 816 and the 'pressure did it's work in Post 820 also reads as non-partner interaction. The entire 'shos is scum' 'amazing content 'thanks' 'you so helpful' in Post 1116 to Post 1119 very very much rule them out as being partners completely. So that's #11 gone.

Shos push for lurker hunting makes little sense if both his partners were lurkers and his list inside Post 124 where he states he thinks two scum exist already consist of City so Four being scum as well isn't super likely, the unlikelyhood of them being partners is strengthened by his insistence on getting a catch up post from Four in Post 189, Post 434 and Post 486. The 'are you reading the game' post in Post 609 again points agianst partners and the vote in Post 689 with the 'why am i still awake' means that he's actively trying to scumhunt there, doesn't make sense for him to stay up later purely to throw a vote down on partner. The aggression and annoyance at him in Post 792 is very strongly non-partners and the casual comment to Antihero in Post 1069 is less likely to come from scum. All up very happy to remove #5 too.

Shos attack on RC about the breadcrumb debacle in Post 559, Post 572, Post 608 and Post 621 alone are enough to rule this pair out as impossible. Redcoyotes reaction towards it in return on strengthens that this pairing isn't the case. So super super super confident that #8 is not the case.

So that's everyone, Shos as scum doesn't work with a single person. That combined with strong town-read on him means he's never ever to be lynched.

Going to take another hour break then will get to the next set.

Spoiler: Partnerships

Baseline · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:41 pm

Fuck me. I realized I posted it on the wrong account just after I hit submit, tried hitting the 'X' on page load but didn't' stop it going through.

In post 1126, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:
Shos interactions with other slots:

Shos post towards Declan in Post 26 points against them being partners, his turnaround of read on him in Post 64 is very natural and points against them being partners very heavily. His Post 69 where he points out Declan and Bulb aren't partners and states his intentions don't make sense as partners as he'd be locking himself into bussing and potentially clearing a townie from it. His pushing on D_G in Post 737 and his argument with me over my read on that slot in Post 745 and after that really completely rule it out. So that removes #15 from the potential pool.

Shos and Abaddons early game interactions and back and forth point against them being scum, Shos town-read on the Abaddon slot and how it's stated as 'towntowntowntown' in Post 254 point towards non-partners, scum don't state such reads on each other, never seen it happen in fact. Him pressuring Abaddon for a claim in Post 816 and the 'pressure did it's work in Post 820 also reads as non-partner interaction. The entire 'shos is scum' 'amazing content 'thanks' 'you so helpful' in Post 1116 to Post 1119 very very much rule them out as being partners completely. So that's #11 gone.

Shos push for lurker hunting makes little sense if both his partners were lurkers and his list inside Post 124 where he states he thinks two scum exist already consist of City so Four being scum as well isn't super likely, the unlikelyhood of them being partners is strengthened by his insistence on getting a catch up post from Four in Post 189, Post 434 and Post 486. The 'are you reading the game' post in Post 609 again points agianst partners and the vote in Post 689 with the 'why am i still awake' means that he's actively trying to scumhunt there, doesn't make sense for him to stay up later purely to throw a vote down on partner. The aggression and annoyance at him in Post 792 is very strongly non-partners and the casual comment to Antihero in Post 1069 is less likely to come from scum. All up very happy to remove #5 too.

Shos attack on RC about the breadcrumb debacle in Post 559, Post 572, Post 608 and Post 621 alone are enough to rule this pair out as impossible. Redcoyotes reaction towards it in return on strengthens that this pairing isn't the case. So super super super confident that #8 is not the case.

So that's everyone, Shos as scum doesn't work with a single person. That combined with strong town-read on him means he's never ever to be lynched.

Going to take another hour break then will get to the next set.

Spoiler: Partnerships
1. Antihero + RC
2. Antihero + Majjify
3. RC + Majjify

4. Antihero + Zar

5. Antihero + Shos

6. Antihero + Rachmarie
7. RC + Zar

8. RC + Shos

9. RC + Rachmarie
10. Majjify + Zar

11. Majjify + Shos

12. Majjify + Rachmarie

13. Zar + Shos

14. Zar + Rachmarie

15. Shos + Rachmarie

Majiffy · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:44 pm

In post 1123, Baseline wrote:Yes, and I don't see what scum motivation there is behind his posting but can see plenty of town motivation. If you're not going to explain why you think he's not town from the massive list of reasons I put forward how about we try it another way, explain to me slowly and in detail why he's scum.

Going to have to wait till Sunday. Two jobs means I don't get a lot of free time to make big case posts often.

Also, we're going to have to have a long talk about your "Gentlemen" hydra. Thor and I are the original Gentlemen around here.

Baseline · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:13 pm

Majjify, that's fine, there's still plenty of time left until deadline so Sunday works. Gives me enough time to get through all the interactions and then a last re-read of the thread before then too. And my hydra with Empire was made before your hydra with Thor was so we're the real gentlemen.

(Also if it's not obvious via the account slip my main is Regfan)

DeclanGiggs / Rachmaries interactions with other slots:

First of and most important, the game that I was following to get D_G meta off

Open Space is finished so get in there and compare his play from here to there, he was scum there and his play is miles away from his play here.

While Rachmaries posts are disappointing and very lackluster D_G alone makes this slot town so get in there and compare the difference in play especially the differences in his reads and how he handled pressure.

DGs attack on RC for stating the word 'town' in his post explaining being de-motivated in Post 144 points against them being scum. Voting him for it in Post 159 strengthens it making them not-partners. Re-bringing up his scum-read on RC in Post 366 and Post 405 furthers them not being partners. Strongest thing that points to them not being partners at all though is Post 463 it's at a time when the case on CE was made and he states he understands and agrees with the case but says he thinks it's not conclusive but instead of voting CE he votes RC, it makes no sense to defend a partner that's likely to be run up and instead buss another partner, no sense at all since it'd lock him into losing two partners while putting in bad light for not having been part of the CE wagon. Very happy to remove #9.

DGs questioning and posts directed towards Abaddon such as Post 43 and Post 47 point to non-partners. His "Goddamn are you stupid Abaddon. Those two posts you quoted mean the same thing. " towards Abaddon in Post 76 really does not look like a comment to a scum partner at all. His Post 143 of "If I get back to L-1 and anyone wants to ask for a claim, just let Abaddon make one up. He's been pushing this wagon, right? (So when I flip town....)" is really really not partner talk. If that's not enough though his Post 248, Post 250 and Post 255 really confirm them as non-partners. So happy to remove #12.

DG has no mention of Four but that's understandable given his lack of posting and Antihero never posted anything content based while D_G was still here so there's no mention of him either which is relatively null. Rachmaries question of 'DC what is up? This is not your usual play? for now null leaning scum.' in Post 764 points slightly against them being partners as does her asking him for reads in Post 786 but states a waffly not-sure read on him in Post 1107 can work as her giving her partner room. All up not enough to completely disconnect it will want to look at interaction the other way around.

So overall if RachMarie is somehow mafia which I highly doubt given D_Gs play it's with Antihero.

Going to take another hour break then will get to the rest.

Spoiler: Partnerships

shos · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:19 pm

if baseline is scum, I'm totally going to swallow my monitor.

Looking forward to that

first content post

supposed case of yours majiffy.

shos · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:36 am

On a reread, I think that a Zar/antihero couple should not be removed from the options list. I think Zar is town - don't get me wrong - I strongly support the {antihero, RC, majiffy} group as scumteam+1 - but the reasoning you gave for Zar/antihero are not satisfying for me and I couldn't find any other reason for that pair to be unlikely. so if antihero is scum, Zar should not be excluded in lylo.

RedCoyote · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:49 am

In post 1123, Baseline wrote:RC, who did you think was the fourth vote on you to mean that you were lynched. Also do you have a link to a game either as scum or town where you believed you were lynched when you weren't actually because with there only being four votes needed to be lynched I don't see how you can mistake being lynched or not at all, especially when the day has only been a page or two long making backtracking to check quite easy.

I had forgotten shos' vote. Gosh, I feel like I'm constantly having to play to this damn meta projection on me of being such a pitiful town player, but that said, I'm definitely a believer in calling a spade a spade, at least in a game like Mafia. Otherwise you'll find yourself second guessing every notion you have. So, to answer your question, I had only remembered the most recent VC before making that post, only later going back up to see that shos had changed his vote. I had noticed this before, but it hadn't really registered. I guess because I didn't make a post when I first saw it.

I doubt I'll be able to rustle up something that specific. I don't even know if I'll be able to find that at all, frankly. I'm sure it has happened to me before, but I can't recall when.

Your scumteam connection list seems very spot on and well-researched, but how much stock are you putting into Zar's point on the grey lynch yesterday? Because it is rare that a townie lynch is arrived with no scum help. As rough of a spot that puts me in, I have to acknowledge it. The trouble is, I get strong townreads from both you and shos. You and shos were on all three of the lynch wagons. Zar and I were on two. Majiffy and Antihero on one. What does that tell you? It tells me, frankly, that I'm wrong on one of my townreads between you, shos, and Zar. It tells me that Majiffy and Antihero are likely not scum together.

If I'm picking partnerships, it's (shos/Zar/Baseline) + (Majiffy/Antihero).

My course of action remains the same though, ultimately. We lynch Majiffy. If town, proceed to Antihero. If scum, proceed to the other group. I'm also content with doing the inverse of this (lynching Antihero first), I just think that I'm more likely to be wrong on Antihero than I am on Majiffy.

shos · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:10 am

can anyone remind me why I'm not hammering..?

RedCoyote · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:19 am

Because I'm town and you couldn't bare the thought of continuing this game without me?

shos · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:20 am

yeah...I doubt that...I'd lynch you over the CE crumbs thing alone, lol. you're still alive because baseline needs to finish his input before the day ends.

Zar · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:07 am

Some things I've gathered from my read over.

- I agree on Abaddon/Majiffy + shos not working as partners not really based on Majiffy's tunnel on an early post from shos at the bottom of post #64. I don't think a partner would confront a buddy like that.

- Without having read DG's Open Space game mentioned in post #1129 I think DG/RachMarie + Abaddon/Majiffy could work together as partners. Declan's interactions with Abaddon include lingering suspicions and calling votes on each other, but still Declan fixating on buldermar instead of pushing his Abaddon suspicions. DG only made significant comments regarding City after her fakeclaim.

In post 1132, RedCoyote wrote:
It tells me that Majiffy and Antihero are likely not scum together.

Is this based on wagon analysis or on their interactions? Because going over Antihero's ISO he can basically a potential partner to almost anyone in this game because his contributions (with the exception of #1090 perhaps) amount to a meager pool of emptiness.

RachMarie · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:06 am

After reading through Baseline's mini novels I have to say I am pretty sure he is town, I can't see anyone who is scum going into that much detail. After all too much detail might come back to haunt them, would be scum's reasoning. While a townie has nothing to hide or worry about.

RachMarie · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:08 am

I presume Gentlemen Bastards is one of your alts Baseline? That was kinda weird lol

RedCoyote · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:07 am

In post 1136, Zar wrote:Is this based on wagon analysis or on their interactions? Because going over Antihero's ISO he can basically a potential partner to almost anyone in this game because his contributions (with the exception of #1090 perhaps) amount to a meager pool of emptiness.

No, I think it will ultimately be only one between them. It's possible that they're both the remaining scum, of course, but if you're acknowledging that, then shouldn't you drop the primary reason you're suspecting me, Zar? Namely, that there has to have been scum on the grey wagon?

Although, come to think of it, I forgot to include Rach in that analysis. Rach, who was actually off every lynch wagon. She's the wild card. She's been phoning it in (justified or not).

shos · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:20 am

In post 1129, Baseline wrote:
Going to take another hour break then will get to the rest.

Just let me hammer.......

Baseline · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:36 pm

In post 1138, RachMarie wrote:I presume Gentlemen Bastards is one of your alts Baseline? That was kinda weird lol

It's a hydra account I play in.

In post 1140, shos wrote:Just let me hammer.......

No. I only need a day or two maximum to get it all done plus I want to see Majjifys explanation first too.

Majiffy · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:53 pm

In post 1129, Baseline wrote:And my hydra with Empire was made before your hydra with Thor was so we're the real gentlemen.

False. I checked the join dates already.

We simply must have a duel sometime. Thor and I will meet you in Forum62 at High Noon.

Zar · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:09 pm

In post 1139, RedCoyote wrote: No, I think it will ultimately be only one between them. It's possible that they're both the remaining scum, of course, but if you're acknowledging that, then shouldn't you drop the primary reason you're suspecting me, Zar? Namely, that there has to have been scum on the grey wagon?

How so? I don't see how one rules out the other; Majiffy and AH being partners is just one of several possible scenarios here. Speaking in terms of their behavior in-game, they are a perfectly plausible partnership; In terms of odds though, it seems a lot least probable that all the scumteam managed to be off the greygnarl wagon. That, combined with your interactions with City + PoE of my townreads in greygnarl's wagon leads me to think you're very likely to be mafia.

Baseline · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:36 pm

RCs interactions with other slots:

(Forewarning RC probably has one of the strongest scum-games on the site and I haven't fully got grips on how to read him or how he interacts with partners even though I think I'm slowly improving in it so I'll probably be reluctant to rule anything out going into it interaction-wise.)

RC has little mention of Antiheros slot, in Post 886 he states that he thinks DC is second most likely to be Citys partner to Abaddon voting Abaddon. In Post 913 he points out the lack of mentioning of CE from Antihero and votes him based on it but moves of in his next post where he states that he doesn't think City and Antihero make sense as partners because he thinks they'd have spoken about it N1 in Post 928 which doesn't make any sense at all. I point it out and he responds in Post 945 but admits it's possible he's grasping at straws which I respond to again and the conversation just dies, whole thing makes sense as them as partners with him using Zars reasoning to not have to buss. His appeal to have Greygnarl and Antihero vote with him in Post 968 is a slight point against them being partners though. The 'what happened to your pal rc' in Post 985 reads as awkward and forced interaction though given their meta history. How Rachmarie came out as a stronger scum-read than Antihero in Post 1111 makes no sense given the lack of mentioning that he thought the slot was scum lately, in fact his last mention of D_G was a town-read from memory, makes sense as him attempting to give himself more options before being forced to buss. The whole Majjify and Antihero are not partners thing in Post 1132 is a slight point against them being partners as he'd be closing of a mslynch option after Antihero was lynched if he were lynched first but his prefence to have Majjify lynched before Antihero weakens it. Overall there's nowhere near enough to rule out this pairing, a lot of it actually points towards it being the case.

RCs mentions of Abaddon comes across as a natural progression in read in Post 161 he's one of his strongest town-reads but in Post 286 his attack on Abaddons play and dislike of it especially comments such as "The more posts you make, the more I get the feeling that you come across as somewhat of a paper tiger. I think that's a first for me in Mafia. I don't know if I've ever described someone in that way before. Your aggression that left such a positive impression on me earlier in this game continues to crumble with each passing page..." don't read as comments that are directed towards a partner at all. His case on Abaddon in Post 886 is something I think he's less likely to put out against a partner that's very likely getting replaced and I think just after losing one partner he'd be a lot more hesitant on pushing on the other, Post 928 furthers this. His entire speech on how he thinks we're making a mistake letting Abaddon of the hook in Post 968 again doesn't read as partner interaction and that's also the case in Post 1080. Similarly to above his Post 1132 where he says he doesn't think Majjify and Antihero are partners locks him of from getting an Antihero mslynch if Majjify were to flip scum and be his partner and given that he's stated preference for lynching Majjify and scum needing mslynches badly at this point I don't think he'd be doing that as partners. All up content to rule out #3.

RCs strongest town-read being on Radelle in Post 161 is a point against them being partners, scum don't often strong-town-read their partner, if they town-read them at all it's normally in the middle-lower end of their spectrum, especially early game. His mention of Zar not laying down a vote in Post 781 isn't something I think scum would be saying about a partner that just replaced in. His Post 1084 of "Yeah, a Zar lynch is pretty silly and you should feel silly for suggesting it (it's almost as bad of an idea as lynching me)." doesn't come across as them being partners but admittedly that's on a guttish level. So yeah, while this isn't super super strong as non-partners as some of the other ones content to rule out #7.

Spoiler: Partnerships

Baseline · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:40 pm

In post 1131, shos wrote:On a reread, I think that a Zar/antihero couple should not be removed from the options list. I think Zar is town - don't get me wrong - I strongly support the {antihero, RC, majiffy} group as scumteam+1 - but the reasoning you gave for Zar/antihero are not satisfying for me and I couldn't find any other reason for that pair to be unlikely. so if antihero is scum, Zar should not be excluded in lylo.

I've played with Zar a lot not just at MS but also at a site called westeroes and one of the things he hates doing as scum is linking himself to partners via defending them from memory so I don't think he'd create a bunch of reasoning to attempt to defend and save someone who is just prod-dodging like Antihero, I think he'd be out the front pushing his lynch and bussing him if they were scum together so I'm content enough to rule it out. Either way I'm pretty sure he's town anyway non-interaction related so it shouldn't be an issue.

In post 1132, RedCoyote wrote:Your scumteam connection list seems very spot on and well-researched, but how much stock are you putting into Zar's point on the grey lynch yesterday? Because it is rare that a townie lynch is arrived with no scum help. As rough of a spot that puts me in, I have to acknowledge it. The trouble is, I get strong townreads from both you and shos. You and shos were on all three of the lynch wagons. Zar and I were on two. Majiffy and Antihero on one. What does that tell you? It tells me, frankly, that I'm wrong on one of my townreads between you, shos, and Zar. It tells me that Majiffy and Antihero are likely not scum together. If I'm picking partnerships, it's (shos/Zar/Baseline) + (Majiffy/Antihero).

I don't think VCA is useful at all in this situation, I can probably find about 10 games out of 100 where all the people on the lynches were town and no scum and given that at least half the people in the game have to be voting for a lynch and the person being lynched wouldn't self-vote the base odds of there being scum on the lynch is about the same thing. So really all up VCA Is quite useless and it's much better to assess based on peoples reasoning for being on-wagon, or not voting on the wagon. Long story short is that I think Majjify + Antihero can be partners but still need to do the analysis on them two.

Baseline · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:15 pm

Abbaddon / Majjifys interactions with other slots:

Abbadons only mention of FourTrouble is where he was in his reads list in Post 284 and he stated that he had a null-read on him questioning where he was, given his lack of content don't think there's anything more to it. He does however never mention a single thing about or towards Demon Core, complete lack of interaction works with him not knowing how to handle his partner or take a stance on him. Majjify mentions Antihero in his idiot pool list in Post 1028 but doesn't really take a stance on him either. There's no other mention at all so it's really an empty interaction between the two slots, very much works as a scum-team so far but want to take a look at Antiheros interactions with Majjify first, probably going to take a few hours of then get to that tonight.

Abbadons reasoning behind having a town-read on Radelle is weird to say the least in Post 284, out of everything she's done her 'reckfulness' isn't at all why I think that slot is town, the reasoning works on a partner as it gives him the option to turn it around stating he did find her play to be anti-town to a degree later rather than be locked into defending a partner. Majjifys replace in reads post in Post 1022 listing Zar as town and going as far to colour him in as green as the only person alive coloured in Post 1024 isn't what I expect from partners at all so that's a point against it being the case. Repeats the town-read in Post 1028. So all up while I don't think this is the case there's not enough to rule out this partnership would say that it's far less likely though.

Since it's one of the main three I'm going to look at the other direction of RC + Majjify to make sure that it's not just RCs interaction with Majjify that makes the slots unlikely to be partners but also Majjifys interaction with RC:

Abaddons only early mention of RC is in his reads list in Post 284 where he states a null-read on him despite him posting content, his reasoning behind it is that "Yes, he's given us some content, but my previous experiences with RC have led me to believe him to be very capable, so I'm not confident enough with his relatively slight input to venture a guess." the paranoia behind RCs play is something I can very much understand so don't think there's anything to that. Abaddons defence towards RCs attack of "Those are shitty reads" in Post 288 doesn't read as scum attempting to defend themselves against a partner at all. It's a pretty solid point towards them not being partners. Majjify lists RC in his idiot pool in Post 1028 but I've seen him list him as such in other games so don't think there's anything to that otherwise he doesn't mention RC again. All up I'm happy enough to say that Abaddons interaction with RC is unlikely to be partners so #3 stays ruled out.

Spoiler: Partnerships

Baseline · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:44 pm

FourTrouble / Demon Core / Antiheros interactions with other slots:

FourTroubles reads post and only content post in Post 170 points against him being scum with RC, scum rarely strongly sheep a partners reads early on in D1 and him saying "I pretty much agree with RedCoyote" lessens the likelihood of them being partners. Demon Cores reads in Post 693 states metatown on RC and then turns around and says that RCs play has been very holistic and that he's playing to his scum meta in Post 800, the turn-around is really really awkward but can't work out if this is likely to come from scum to a partner or scum to a townie, interested in others thoughts on that bit actually. States he thinks the scum-team is RC and Zar in Post 941 and then votes RC in Post 979 saying "RC, you can go ahead and get on my wagon. I'm sure your buddy Zar will ditch the greygnarl counterwagon to get my lynch to go through." which is another really awkward line, again not sure what to make of it. Then says "Don't worry, you're still in good shape. After you kill buldermar tonight, you'll only have shos to get through. I'm sure you'll be able to manage to get a RachMarie/greygnarl mislynch though." to RC. Another really awkward statement, continues the vote in Post 1068. All up I'm really really unsure on this, instinct is that FTs interaction with RC points against being a pairing but I think Antiheros interaction with RC is really odd and probably works as a team. Really need others input on this one.

FourTroubles placement of D_G in his reads post in Post 170 is a weak scum-read, it's the type of placement I can see done towards a partner especially voting Furcolow afterwards. Demon Cores read on D_G in Post 693 stating " DG reads as genuinely frustrated town to me and their push on him seem like scum taking advantage of a newbie." which is not the sort of read or reasoning I think scum would use of their partner. Especially with his Post 753 stating "The stuff with DG is the cornerstone of my scumreads on radelle and abaddon because it kind of dominates the game." and I don't think scum would be using a partner to base all their reads off especially not on a player that was garning attention and looked like he might get lynched. So I'm happy to rule out #6 too.

FourTrouble stating a weaker town-read on Abaddon in Post 170 is a read that makes sense between partners. Demon Core jumping in and voting Abaddon without any reason in Post 556 works as a distancing tactic and the fact that he was absent for a whole week before doing that means he could have felt pressured by being inactive and thus decided to take a risk. His Post 693 where he states the scum-read is based of Abaddon pushing D_G makes some sense but his lack of mentioning suspecting Radelle for the same thing earlier isn't good, it comes across as a reason that was decided on after-the-fact. His Post 777 of "I love how no one disagrees with me on Abaddon but everyone still thinks I'm scum." is actually something I've seen scum say in the past about their partner; they attempt to distance / buss, have people agree with them but are still are suspected and get annoyed about it since they'd like to think their play would be pro-town regardless of them being scum. The sudden drop of the scum-read in Post 941 which some context wise is the start of D3 after we lynched City could be him getting cold feet after losing a partner combined with the fact that at the time Shos had a vote on Abaddon so there was some chance that distancing would be turned into bussing. When questioned about the dropping of scum-read he just says yes to it happening without him stating reasoning in Post 983. So all up it's actually looking very very likely to be the scum-team given that Antiheros read on Abaddon looked like initial distancing and the drop of point was when scum was lynched the before and there looked like some growing traction towards it. Would like others thoughts on this one too but I think this is the case.

Just have to do some more reading of interactions with CE and then I think I'll be ready to place a vote down but we're not lynching RC today, the only person he realistically works as partners with is Antihero and given that Antihero works as scum with Majjify as well aand that pairing is far more likely we're lynching Antihero today. He's pretty much lying down and given up, he's not attempting to scumhunt contribute or rebut at all. Especially if he thinks the case is Zar + RC he'd be very interested and willing to jump in and explain why I've incorrectly ruled it out but he hasn't at all. In fact I think typing this I've convinced myself that this is by far the best way to go today. I think the odds that I die tonight are massively high which is why I wanted to get everything I had to say out today and hopefully you guys actually do go back and take a look at all this analysis so it's not all in vain but I think Antihero -> Majjify is the way to go.

Vote: Antihero

Spoiler: Partnerships

shos · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:16 pm

RC+Majiffy is still workable imo. what you mentioned as stuff that you don't think a partner would say - I say exactly the contrary. it's EXACTLY that nonchalantly talking, that fencesitting, that a scum would want to talk about a partner. "ya paper tiger" ok. cool. yay. but that's not a 'town' or 'scum'. it's just AROUND, tipping toes to avoid taking a concrete stance. he called him town, then attacked him, then they keep distancing with that idiot pool etc. I don't agree with that ruling out and I highly support that couple, not to mention the fact that I have an independent scumread on both stronger than antihero.

I'm going to go over Antihero's relations with CE, and if I don't find anything that will make me rethink, I am going to hammer RC.

Baseline · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:23 pm

The idiot pool is a null thing because Majjify calls RC an idiot in every game I believe, I know he did when he was town in the last game I played with the both of them. I don't think Abaddons reaction towards RC alling his reads shit at all is something that comes from partner to partner, he was attempt to change RCs mind which I think he'd be less inclined to do towards a partner and the 'paper tiger' ect. isn't town or scum and is different but it's not the sort of phrasing or comment I've ever seen scum use to a partner, if you think of an example of anyone stating something like that to a partner link me to it but otherwise I don't think that pairing is the case at all. I really think we're dealing with Antihero + Majjify or if not that then Antihero + RC.