Mini 1389: The Agency Mafia (Game Over)

[PeregrineV]

Night 5 begins now.

Please send all night actions by Friday, January 18, 2013 at 3pm Central Time.

[PeregrineV]

It's a beautiful day along the Rhine, and all is peaceful.


Too peaceful....


So you are not too startled when the latest incident of human-death-due-to-robot-lover-turned-vicious-robot-killer flashes up on the news.


While she is reprogrammed for remorse,


at least his family will be taken care of.


While you comb over his documents


he is laid to rest.


Iecerint has died night 5.

He was Friedrich Von Ohlhausen, Town Conspiracy Theorist!

[PeregrineV]

Day 6 starts now.

Deadline is Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 3pm Central Time.

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

[Empking]

Four players, no lynch?

[shos]

CIA? Wtf.

[guille2015]

CIA? Wtf.

There's your third QT.
I see, so we got 3 KGB, 2 FBI and 2 CIA and Saulres was the double agent in both the CIA and FBI. Saulres was likely killed by the KGB. Well, I speculate, But I don't think I am far from the truth.

We also seem to received a message that says that the mod only tells the truth, but that might be a lie in it's self.

Anyways, I am pretty sure Shos is town, and we're in Mylo, so it's between Piggy and Empking. With only one death, then I can say that only one scum party is left.

Nolynching, is only a good option if we had two scum parties left, which we don't (I think).

[Empking]

What's the logic for the last bit?

[guille2015]

With 4 players and one of them is scum. The resulting lynch is pretty much the same as it would be with 3 players, except that the player considered the most town will die during the night and the three most suspicious will remain. There are exceptions. I was generalizing assuming that our situation is part of the generalized position. If all players are equally percieved as suspicious, then no-lynch is the best option. If more than two players are functioning PRs, then NoLynch is the best option.

On the current situation, and from my point of view, Shos is town. So, I'd rather listen to him and vote with him than with risking him dying at night.

[guille2015]

So, here is what I suggest.

Everybody should say who do they think should be lynched and why. And tell us why the other two should not. If you can't set that up, you can at least place everyone in a scummy order.

I would like that the order be: Empking (More active than Piggy), Piggy (it's fine if she goes before Empking), Shos (Most likely to be town), And finally me (I devised this plan.) Basically shos and me should go last, because I don't want our reads to influence Empking and Piggy.

If you disagree with this, say why or if you disagree with the suggested order, say why and suggest a new order.

[shos]

Guilles theory about 3+2+2+saul sounds perfectly fitting to me.

if a nl happens i or guille will die, no use for that.

i like the plan above. Gogogo.

[shos]

We also need to look for d1-4 connections with ns to gind the other cia

[Empking]

Guille's theory on Saulres, I've just realised, is ridiculous. That would essentially mean, from saulres' POV, there was a five man scum team with two kills (Saulres could easiliy weave a tale for his scum teams to keep them from getting the other lynched e.g. "My role PM says that X & Y must be alive for us to have a factional kill".

I'm not sure on the lynching order which is why I suggest NL. Shos hasn't been town somuch as unsuspected which is the perfect place for scum to be. Piggy just rubs me the wrong way, and Guille has the NL. if it comes down to it I'd go Guille, Piggy & shos.


Just thought of a theory of the set up. Saulres as a JOAT who can't post in the two QTs, but does win if either of them win (this solves my problem with Guille's theory). JOAT giving him powers to find his scum mates annd also the power to govern a player (explaining Guille).

[guille2015]

MOD: I will be VLA until Tuesday.

[shos]

I figured that saul probably haa a survivir wincon.

[shos]

MOD:

My dad's disabled and we're in a bad situation right now, so I am starting a V/LA just to be safe, I don't know when it will end, could be a few hours could be days.

[shos]

NEVERMIND, I'm out of VLA

starting to look at CIA relations.

[shos]

I'm leaning hard to vote empking.

Empking has lately been the only one going against the flow in what seems to be a very well played town play on our side. he was against the NS lynch, is now against the extremely logical theory about the agencies and double agent. next part is: he only appears ONCE in an entirely ignorable point in NS's ISO. I'm now going to go through NS's scum games and see how he treats his scummates. Saul is also mentioned verrrrry few times in his ISO.

[shos]

results are in!

out of 5 scum games I've seen on NS, in 4 he barely mentioned his scummates. I'm willing to vote empking; if you guys think that we should NL first and only make our votes tomorrow, I'm fine with that

[Empking]

I'm leaning hard to vote empking.

Empking has lately been the only one going against the flow in what seems to be a very well played town play on our side. he was against the NS lynch, is now against the extremely logical theory about the agencies and double agent. next part is: he only appears ONCE in an entirely ignorable point in NS's ISO. I'm now going to go through NS's scum games and see how he treats his scummates. Saul is also mentioned verrrrry few times in his ISO.

Firstly, I only went against the grain thrice.

1. When I was pro-lynching quadz when everyone else was pro-smoking dope.
2. When i was pro-lynching NS when the rest of you were pro -lynching Guille.
3. When I was pro-lynching Guille whn the rest of you mysteriously stopped.


Secondly, Guille's theory isn't 'extremely logical'.
1. It predicts three kills a night. Where have they gone?
2. It makes Saulres essentially part of a five man scum team with two kills. Does that look like early game to you?
3. It fails to answer the biggest mystery of all: Why the Guille No Lynch?

[shos]

unrelated to rest of post: Piggy needs to chip in now and tell us who he used his ability on, I think
~~~

I only mentioned one which was the main thing and you ignored it - the last lynch?

anyway, about the theory, I'll spread it out for you to see what I think.

Setup is:
1 town Conspiracy theorist - Iec
1 town UN investigator - Mehdi
1 town 1shot JK/doc - Piggy
2 town VTs - me and Guille
3 KGB scums: Director, 2 agents
2 FBI scums: Director, agent
2 CIA scums: Director, agent
1 souble agent FBI-CIA.

Iecerint's role has been confirmed and we already know that he was some kind of bulletproof-who-knows-he-dodged-a-kill.
Mehdi's role has been confirmed and we already know that he was too some kind of bulletproof like the above.
Guille's role is not confirmed but we know that he was some kind of a lynchproof, probably 1-shot.
I believe Saulres was a double agent with a survivor wincon or something; there could be a whole mechanic behind this between the scummers themselves so speculating there won't help anyone.
The scums probably have powers you know. roleblocking powers are likely here imo since town are less likely to be harmed by them.
There is clearly some kind of mechanism that holds back killings. either a odd-even killing ability modifier, or something alike.

~~
If you think this theory is wrong: what do you think is

right

?

do you understand that we have had SEVEN scum flips so far? do you think there is MORE than one scum alive right now? have you noticed that both KGB and FBI have flipped agents and one director each?you offered no lynch now; what if there's no kill tonight? who do you think is scum and which scum is that and how are they related? you seem to be throwing posts here and there but those posts are almost void of any content and nearly never matter in the game for realz.

you said that if it comes down to it you'd lynch guille now, assuming Saul is a JOAT who governed him? and this realy sounds logical to you? The 2-man scumteams would be underpowered compared to the KGB if that was the case. that is, of course, not counting the extremely useless town roles and the extremely small chance for a town win in such a setup. oh yes, 8 scums 5 town, so let's give scum governor just to make sure town reaaaaaaally can't win >_>

I think that NS's theory combined with guille's is what makes the most perfect sense. town have some mechanism to help protect themselves; 1 doc/JK, 1 lynchproof, 2 bulletproof. at least.

~~~

I'm 150% sure that guille is town.
Piggy and you - you two should probably already be cross voting. comparing NS' play to his other scum games in the way he treats buddies - yields you and saul has teammates in 80% sure I'd say. I admit, I haven't investigated too deeply with Piggy. I will. I have a whole week free from the army.

~~~
I think piggy should realy step in, she hasn't said anything today.

[Empking]

you said that if it comes down to it you'd lynch guille now, assuming Saul is a JOAT who governed him? and this realy sounds logical to you?

Saulres.

Your theory:
1. You think that Guille has some secret role that's nothing like anyone else's.
2. You think that scum have some kill limiting that you've never mentioned before.
3. You think that Saulres has an odd role. (3rd party in two scum QTs)

My Theory:
1. Saulres has an odd role. (3rd Party JOAT & Kill-Switch)

If you can't admit my theory is better (it explains more with less assumptions) then you're either extremely stupid/conceited or you're trying to get a reaction.

Your idea that a one-shot governor ability being given to a traitor-ish role is more imbalanced than an effective five-man scum team is completely moronic.

[shos]

Prod piggy?

will respond from comp

[PeregrineV]

Vote Count 6-1

(as of Post 1045)

Not Voting (4)

- Empking, guille2015, PiggyGal15, shos

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline:

Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 3pm Central Time

Replacing:

No one

Prods:

PiggyGal15

V/LAs:

guille2015Jan 22

[shos]

I dont understand tha quote/Saulres part of your message~

anyway:

my theory is:
1. Saul is 3rd party.
2. unknown mechanics and/or scum roles prevent lots of deaths

your theory is:
1. Saul is 3rd party.
2. Saul is in charge of the guille nolynch
3. Saul is in charge of all the missing kills

~~~
I'll emphasize it more this way:
1. this game is known to have hidden mechanics; why does your theory entirely ignore that?
2. do you think that all and every scum member is just a goon? this is what it sounds like.
3. how do you explain mehdi's flavor?

your theory is just half a theory, and already it assumes lots. if you want to have a complete theory, make it complete, not a 1-liner. explain all the missing kills, the kills themselves, the missing lynches, the flavor, the flips. mine does that with very few assumptions.

[Empking]

your theory is just half a theory, and already it assumes lots. if you want to have a complete theory, make it complete, not a 1-liner. explain all the missing kills, the kills themselves, the missing lynches, the flavor, the flips. mine does that with very few assumptions.

No it doesn't. You literally said that your answer to the question was ' unknown mechanics and/or scum roles prevent lots of deaths'. That's just a shrug and 'don't know'.

I do think you're just trying to get a reaction here. Your discussion of your theory is clearly silly e.g. you split deaths into two parts in mine while keeping them in one part in your's. My theory has to have less assumptions because we both make assumption of Saulres' role while I make no assumptions about anything else, and you do. I don't ecall what you mean by Medhi's message.

Since, I know that you're just trying to get a rise out of me, may I ask: Why?