The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[kuribo]

Oh hey no duh, I did a google search and expensive doctor shows up with no problem.

Explain?

also, why'd you claim your N1 target if you knew you couldn't target them again later?

Did you even bother to read any of his scum games?

I've said this elsewhere on the site, but I don't read games I'm not in, partially because I don't like playing Mafia

[Cerulean]

Okay, with that I believe kise's claim even more now.

IT'S OKAY KISE.

And yes that does look like a crumb on baby spices part. Gods replacements mess with my head. When z posted that I was trying to figure how legally obliged was a crumb for Ronnie mo, it took empire spelling it out for me to finally click. I'm not dumb I swear I just haven't really slept in over a week.

Anyway empire and I had a Poe discussion last night and our final list is quite similar to pless's with the addition of a couple names we have some paranoia about, and minus ourselves because we'll we don't suspect ourselves :p.

Empire is going to take another look through tml's meta and work on that and we'll be hashing out the rest of our list this week. We both have a busy schedule so it probably won't be until the end of the week or so before that's completely done.

[Shaft]

Oh hey no duh, I did a google search and expensive doctor shows up with no problem.

Explain?

also, why'd you claim your N1 target if you knew you couldn't target them again later?

Googled "mafiascum expensive doctor".

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p4721543
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p4730076

Can't say I've always loved Cerulean enough to care about that. Tammy's not putting out.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK. Kise is town.

[The Baltimore Sun]

Day 3, Votecount 4

ChannelDeliBird (1) - Benmage

The Mini-Librarian (3) - ChannelDelibird, BT, Nostredeus

Nostredeus (1) - Shaft

Not voting (8) :

Cerulean, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, camn, Zdenek, The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, kuribo

• With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 9th of March at 17:15pm GMT
  
• Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2013-03-09 13:15:28)

[camn]

OK. Kise is town.

no, kise is a doctor.

[Shaft]

No, camn needs to get off her boney ass and find another suspect.

[Benmage]

I say the very ineptitude of it shows us that it was genuine. He really did just think of it right there.. then went for it. That, my friends, is townplay.

Errrr I'm so tired of this shit play from town. But this post of camns is well made.

Spoiler: 2

2) Absta never gives a town-read on his partners. He might give no read on them, or he might (weakly) accuse them.

Absta gave town-reads on Jason, on petapan and on DV. So remove all three from the short-list of Police, too.

That leaves {Cerulean, Benmage, camn, The Mini-Librarian, BT, Nostredeus}

Yeah Abstas calls Cerulean myself and DV good targets for Zdenek. I imagine that is a town read. No?

The two part section isn't bad Plessie. There could definetly be a scum in here. The final two, I doubt. Camn, I'm sorry but their interaction could not have been fabricated. Camn n abstas are not scum together. You direct quote an abstas game that has that intensity and I'll change my opinion.

Then Cerulean, despite me wavering a little has been a constant town read. Obviously I remove myself.

So to claim 2 scum in TML/BT?nost... I doubt it.

[Benmage]

I think Kise's role given the game format is very likely to be a town role.

Scum getting an expensive doc role... that would be a quirky one.

OCrRzr. Putting Kise into the town list!

[Benmage]

Kise, why would you think your role meant SK over vig?

[Plessiezarus]

I can only target each player once. But hey that

may also mean a small mafia too

(3+traitor)

You know, there is something in TGAH's ISO that has been bugging me for a while. Pless thinks I'm slightly paranoid for it, but the fact that you bring it up makes me want to talk about it:

If we look at TGAH's post 489, there is a comment regarding similar setup speculation that I believed could have been a clue to the Police TGAH was a traitor to. (assuming the scenario of a small scum team were true and TGAH had insider information):

I don’t know.

It could be a small scum team

, Jason could be a scum PR, or a few other reasons that I can’t think of right now. That doesn’t negate the point that they –are- defending Jason. Nor are they touching the main issue of why Jason is scum. Instead they are labeling Jason as town due to his gambit and tunneling on Vifam.

Sotty, would you respond to 304 and give your thoughts on that and how it affects your read on Jason? Would you also address Jason’s scumread on Dayne?

I’m going to catch up with everything, hopefully, before I head out to work today. If there is anything that people would specifically like me to address please let me know.

I don't really have a clue of how a small scum-team could work in a 19 player game. I asked Pless if the flavor would allow for multiple people within the Barksdale Organization working with the Police, and Pless said that Bubbles isn't the only person that makes sense as CI, so I guess that could work?.

Basically, we're both a bit skeptical of our original theory of a vig + a single, large scum team. Pless agrees with Zdenek that the ArcAngel kill was not quite right for a town-motivated vig. And we both have town-reads on the majority of the people in the five person short list for potential members of the Police after looking into absta.

~ Zar.

[Benmage]

I don't really have a clue of how a small scum-team could work in a 19 player game. I asked Pless if the flavor would allow for multiple people within the Barksdale Organization working with the Police, and Pless said that Bubbles isn't the only person that makes sense as CI, so I guess that could work?.

Basically, we're both a bit skeptical of our original theory of a vig + a single, large scum team. Pless agrees with Zdenek that the ArcAngel kill was not quite right for a town-motivated vig. And we both have town-reads on the majority of the people in the five person short list for potential members of the Police after looking into absta.

No. Bubbles is going to be the only one working with the cops for S1.

That said.. I did venture a little into the crazy pool with my own setup inquiry.

If the murder was a second scum team, the second scum team could be Omar, the chic he rolls with, and his gay lover(Or maybe just one). Or something being a small scum team. The opposing team could be 2(+1) vs a weaker 3/a stronger 2.

To be honest, I think I let myself over think this too much. I wouldn't accept this as the practical setup... and with the 19p 5-6 scum seems high, no?

[Plessiezarus]

So, working under the assumption that the remaining Police are in {Cerulean, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, BT, Nostredeus}.

Don't think TGAH would have attacked Nostrodeus early on day 1 if Nostrodeus were a member of the Police. Cross him off the short-list.

Have had strong town-reads on Cerulean and Benmage for most of the game. Not paranoid enough to starting doubting either of them, yet. (Cerulean has been a bit quiet lately, I suppose, but I know Tammy at least has out-of-game reasons for being busy.) Also think TGAH's posts might point away from Benmage being Police anyway.

Cross both of them off the short-list, too.

That leaves a list of two people: {The Mini-Librarian, BT}. Would be happy if either were the lynch today, though our preference is for TML.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Why TML over BT?

TML's interactions with absta aren't great, as other people have pointed out. He briefly voted for absta, but quickly found an alternate wagon he preferred, which could easily be distancing. And the fact he forgot all about his absta suspicions when the day came to a close and people were looking for alternatives to Zdenek and ActionDan, in particular, seems quite odd.

TML being Police would also help to explain the Shadoweh death, arguably. She definitely suspected him on day 1, and only moved off him to vote for absta. Killing somebody fairly inactive just because they suspected one of the scum seems a bit weak. But somebody who was suspicious of

two

of the scum-team is a much more appealing NK target.

I also don't like the way TML gave up on his petapan=scum meta case. He seems pretty confident of it in 439 and in later posts (like 667). True, at the end of day 1 he was "willing to let Dan live a night", but he seemed set to come back to this again the next day. And in fact he still seemed suspicious of Dan at the start of Day 2, in 1035.

The fact that, rather than pursuing this read, he instead drops all his suspicions, and actually quickly lists petapan's slot as a town-read, seems to have far more to do with wanting to avoid a fight with kuribo than it does with any genuine change of heart. If you believe petapan's meta makes him scum, then kuribo must also be scum. Or, failing that, kuribo must have done something you find very townish. But TML doesn't mention any such thing. He just stops suspecting the slot, without saying why, the instant kuribo replaces in. (I don't think he gets around to explaing

why

he has a town-read on kuribo until 1722, and even then only because Benmage directly challenges him on it.)

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

VOTE: TML, obviously.

~ Pless

[jasonT1981]

back, sorry. Had my normal weekend V/LA...and was busy yesterday.

[Plessiezarus]

The two part section isn't bad Plessie. There could definetly be a scum in here. The final two, I doubt. Camn, I'm sorry but their interaction could not have been fabricated. Camn n abstas are not scum together. You direct quote an abstas game that has that intensity and I'll change my opinion.

This reads like it's meant to be an objection to my post . But I agree completely that camn is unlikely to be partnered with absta. Absta's push on her is exactly why I took her off the shortlist.

So to claim 2 scum in TML/BT?nost... I doubt it.

Yeah, I'm not really that pleased that the short-list is so short. It's part of the reason I've been speculating with Zar about more oddball setups.

But even if absta has gone against his meta somewhere, and we've wrongly ruled out

somebody

as Police, I think it very likely that there is at least one Police on the list.

No. Bubbles is going to be the only one working with the cops for S1.

Really? I wouldn't be surprised to see, for instance, Wallace or Shardene as Traitors, myself. They both start the season working for the Barksdale organization. They both end up agreeing to work with the Police and reveal important information about the organization (although, yes, Wallace has second thoughts).

Could be a second scum team made up of Omar's crew, too.

~ Pless

[camn]

Kise, why would you think your role meant SK over vig?

Because it is a 1-shot protection of his scumbuddies from an SK...

[Zdenek]

prod dodging.

[The Baltimore Sun]

Prodding Nostredeus

[Benmage]

This reads like it's meant to be an objection to my post .

Far from it. In fact the out of box thinking+genuine analyzing really resonates as town with me. Which helps with my mini-paranoia. I would imagine scum at this juncture in the game taking either a back seat (as they clearly couldn't be such a vocal voice/leader now...and expect to make it to endgame)..or I could see them tunneling on some relatively unlikely lynch candidate.

-The only beef I had was the two scum claim. I agree, very likely one scum there. BT is my best town read amongst the remaining three... BT did have some peculiar behavior that I'm blanking on atm, but went over with kuribo. His slot still read town from Vifam/his early play. So I'll have to go back to the section I was looking at before, and see if its strong enough to change my read.

Let me take a look at TML.

No. Bubbles is going to be the only one working with the cops for S1.

Really? I wouldn't be surprised to see, for instance, Wallace or Shardene as Traitors, myself. They both start the season working for the Barksdale organization. They both end up agreeing to work with the Police and reveal important information about the organization (although, yes, Wallace has second thoughts).

Could be a second scum team made up of Omar's crew, too.

~ Pless

I had totally forgotten about Shardene playing such an informant role. Multiple traitors still seems hard to swallow. I know Faraday can be creative, especially when it comes to scum makeups... Still. I doubt it. Wallace gets capped too early.

[Zdenek]

Plessie, how hard does scum-Absta tend to push mislynches?

[Nostredeus]

Shit, sorry guys I've been doing funding applications over the last couple of days; I'm on it right now, gimme a mo.

[Nostredeus]

So yeah, basically take the SAD wagon:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, Zdenek, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, sottyrulez

I take out the dead:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, Zdenek, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird

And conf town:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird

And myself:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, ChannelDeliBird

Then look at who is left and I've got town reads on Jason, Plessie, Deasvail and CDB.

Combine that with TML interactions / the unease I get when a townie gets 0 heat all game / the legit solid cases on TML today and PoE says it's time to scrap Wall-E.

[DeasVail]

Where I'm at now is it's really looking like TML and BT will be my major scumreads. Proper reasoning will have to come a bit later though.