Open 474 - Friends and Enemies - Game Over!

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #1250 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:21 am

I am no longer sure what to ought for this game anymore.
Now everyone seem to move another direction.....

Docteur - Why did you vote HD?

Jennifer · Post Post #1251 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:29 am

Sorry, Cheery. But you were L-1 and your claim was so blatant to me that I thought it had to be to others as well (though apparently not..), and I was worried about scum coming in after your post and hammering before townies could unvote you. While I would rather only VTs be killed at night, I'd rather have a mason nightkilled than lynched.

Jacob now reads town to me as he could have hammered and chose not to (same with Nic and KX).
UNVOTE:

Cheery Dog (L-1): ArcAngel9, Docteur Gudsight, borkjerfkin, Human Destroyer

^This was who was on his train (possibly two which would explain lack of hammer). At least one scum must be on his train. I don't think it's Bork, and I'm leaning town now on HD as he seems pretty relaxed and not shying away from interaction. I would have said that I don't think it's AA9 but she is still voting Cheery.... :/

@AA9

Why is your vote still on Cheery?

VOTE: Doc

L-2

@Cheery Also think about when it makes the most sense for your partner to reveal. The benefits of doing it today are that we would have two conf town, they can't kill both of you tonight, which also gives us one conf town for tomorrow. Also, it removes the odds tomorrow of scum claiming to be your partner. I tried to do the math of worse case scenario and tomorrow is MYLO if we mislynch today. But, I leave it to you.

UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT
------------------------
Cheery Dog (L-4): ArcAngel9,
JacobSavage (L-4): Cheery
Docteur Gudsight (L-2): Human Destroyer, brokjerfkin, Jennifer
Human Destroyer (L-3): Docteur Gudsight, JacobSavage

Not voting (3): KX, NicCage

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #1252 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:05 am

Becuz, At this moment I still feel Cheery more scummy than anyone!!

Docteur Gudsight · Post Post #1253 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:23 am

In post 1250, ArcAngel9 wrote:I am no longer sure what to ought for this game anymore.
Now everyone seem to move another direction.....

Docteur - Why did you vote HD?

Why would i not vote HD? He was my main suspect before Cheery Dog pinged my scumdar.

Jennifer · Post Post #1254 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:31 am

In post 1252, ArcAngel9 wrote:Becuz, At this moment I still feel Cheery more scummy than anyone!!

Can you walk me through your thought process please? Because regardless of what you think of his play, he has claimed mason. And no one has counterclaimed him. If he was scum, at least one of the remaining masons would claim (doesn't make sense not to imo) and we'd be guaranteed a scum flip by tomorrow's lynch at the latest, assuming we guessed wrong on who was believable today.

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #1255 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:23 am

In post 1254, Jennifer wrote:
In post 1252, ArcAngel9 wrote:Becuz, At this moment I still feel Cheery more scummy than anyone!!

Can you walk me through your thought process please? Because regardless of what you think of his play, he has claimed mason. And no one has counterclaimed him. If he was scum, at least one of the remaining masons would claim (doesn't make sense not to imo) and we'd be guaranteed a scum flip by tomorrow's lynch at the latest, assuming we guessed wrong on who was believable today.

Is he? All i see him saying that he is not confirming or denying his soft claim? If he is the mason, what is point of beating behind bushes anymore?

Eitherways, he will now be mafia's night target. I am just not sure how honest he is...
There is no counter claim becuz, our mason may not want to come out yet.. which could be a good thing too..

In post 1238, Cheery Dog wrote:
In post 1227, borkjerfkin wrote:If he were a mason why would he not just hardclaim it at this point?

I only ever hard claim stuff with intents to hammer.
I'm not confirming or denying any possible role hints.

Jennifer · Post Post #1256 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:32 am

In post 1241, Cheery Dog wrote:Which you now have, as it was indeed a softclaim as I am a Mason.

Also, given he's the likely nightkill if town, why would you then try to lynch him today? If you're wrong, you've helped scum kill a mason. If you're right, he won't die tonight and will face serious pressure tomorrow. Not seeing the upside to keeping your vote on him.

Either way, if you could vote for someone else (instead of/in addition to Cheery), who would it be on?

Human Destroyer · Post Post #1257 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:38 am

In post 1251, Jennifer wrote:I tried to do the math of worse case scenario and tomorrow is MYLO if we mislynch today.

Huh?

By my calculations, it takes 2 mislynches to get us to LYLO; because of the way the setup works, we should never reach MYLO unless we NL, which is silly.

Human Destroyer · Post Post #1258 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:44 am

@Arc: The mason claim makes Cheery near confirmed town if it remains uncountered. A (smart) mason would've counterclaimed by now.

@KX: Yeah, I know, I was tunneling then, I stopped doing that on Jacob after thinking on it for a while. I also realized it made no sense to distance at that specific time, because that was when most people still had townreads on GM.

@Jacob: Why are you discounting the possibility of Docteur-scum? What have they done to give you a townread on them? Be specific with quotes and such.

@Cheery: Jacob town-slipped, he's not our lynch for today, sorry. You were fine with the Docteur wagon yesterday, why not today?

Jennifer · Post Post #1259 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:00 am

In post 1257, Human Destroyer wrote:By my calculations, it takes 2 mislynches to get us to LYLO; because of the way the setup works, we should never reach MYLO unless we NL, which is silly.

You're right. Looks like scum win Day 6 if all goes wrong. Just wrote it out below.. I had tried to figure it out on paper using shorthand and got confused (I suck at math).

Here is worse-case scenario:

9 alive, 5 to lynch, 2 scum remain. [D3, TODAY]
- mislynch
8 alive, 2 scum remain
- night kill
7 alive, 4 to lynch, 2 scum remain [D4]
- mislynch
6 alive, 2 scum remain
- night kill
5 alive, 3 to lynch, 2 scum remain [D5] <-- Have to be very careful because 1 wrong vote by a townie and scum can hammer the win
- mislynch
4 alive, 2 scum remain
- night kill
3 alive, 2 scum remain [D6]
- SCUM WIN

Human Destroyer · Post Post #1260 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:13 am

No D5 would be LYLO, mislynch means scum get a D5 win

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #1261 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:46 am

^ What you recommending? No lynch?

Human Destroyer · Post Post #1262 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:55 am

No

I'm just pointing out how Jen's maths are wrong

Arc you should still vote someone different

Preferably Docteur

NicCage · Post Post #1263 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:28 am

VOTE: Jacob

Cheery Dog · Post Post #1264 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:40 am

In post 1247, borkjerfkin wrote:
Let's explore this a little because I'm having trouble seeing where you're coming from. If Jacob had admitted later to seeing the softclaim at any point (which I didn't see either) and ALSO going to try to force your hardclaim I'd agree with your premise, but as it stands this doesn't really make any sense to me.

I think jennifer was the only person who did pick up on it, or at least publicly, but him coming in with the intent to hammer off my post, was to make me claim, I feel town would have just let me continue hiding, but I guess since it wasn't completely obvious to everyone maybe not so much, but Jacob is probscum anyway.

In post 1251, Jennifer wrote:Sorry, Cheery. But you were L-1 and your claim was so blatant to me that I thought it had to be to others as well (though apparently not..), and I was worried about scum coming in after your post and hammering before townies could unvote you. While I would rather only VTs be killed at night, I'd rather have a mason nightkilled than lynched.

Scum quickhammering me would still be scum that can be caught and should be lynched tomorrow. (yes it would suck if I was lynched, but if you got scum the next day since they quickhammered, that's perfectly fine with me)

In post 1251, Jennifer wrote:
@Cheery Also think about when it makes the most sense for your partner to reveal. The benefits of doing it today are that we would have two conf town, they can't kill both of you tonight, which also gives us one conf town for tomorrow. Also, it removes the odds tomorrow of scum claiming to be your partner. I tried to do the math of worse case scenario and tomorrow is MYLO if we mislynch today. But, I leave it to you.

I think it's best not yet, as I believe I am best to not reveal them. (as did panzer)

In post 1258, Human Destroyer wrote:
@Cheery: Jacob town-slipped, he's not our lynch for today, sorry. You were fine with the Docteur wagon yesterday, why not today?

I'm still okay with that lynch, I think after rereading Jacob is a better one though, even if he is the one of my scumreads that panzer wasn't also reading at the time he died.
and if Jacob's town-slip is forgetting his would be partner, I believe I have already explained I don't trust that logic.

Cheery Dog · Post Post #1265 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:42 am

In post 1255, ArcAngel9 wrote:Is he? All i see him saying that he is not confirming or denying his soft claim? If he is the mason, what is point of beating behind bushes anymore?

Eitherways, he will now be mafia's night target. I am just not sure how honest he is...
There is no counter claim becuz, our mason may not want to come out yet.. which could be a good thing too..

Confirmed not reading, cool

Can we lynch this scum yet?

JacobSavage · Post Post #1266 (ISO) » Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:41 pm

In post 1258, Human Destroyer wrote:@Jacob: Why are you discounting the possibility of Docteur-scum? What have they done to give you a townread on them? Be specific with quotes and such.

Honestly they just appear town, look I'll have some time on Sunday and I'll do a lovely post on why they are town but for now I'll go with my gut.

In post 1265, Cheery Dog wrote:
In post 1255, ArcAngel9 wrote:Is he? All i see him saying that he is not confirming or denying his soft claim? If he is the mason, what is point of beating behind bushes anymore?

Eitherways, he will now be mafia's night target. I am just not sure how honest he is...
There is no counter claim becuz, our mason may not want to come out yet.. which could be a good thing too..

Confirmed not reading, cool

Can we lynch this scum yet?

If Bork and HD don't flip scum I'll join you on this wagon .

Human Destroyer · Post Post #1267 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:43 am

In post 1263, NicCage wrote:VOTE: Jacob

This should be a Docteur vote

One of {NicCage, ArcAngel} should join the wagon, and the other should intend to hammer.

I'd actually prefer it if Arc voted before Nic though because I know Arc tends to hammer before a claim

Human Destroyer · Post Post #1268 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:45 am

Oh KX isn't voting either

Add him to that group of "People that should vote Docteur"

Cheery seems intent on Jacob but, again, a switch would be nice

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #1269 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:55 am

am here but am more comfortable voting Jacob, jacob is equally scummy~
Cherry gets free pass until tomorrow day phase,

Jennifer · Post Post #1270 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 10:01 am

@AA9 Why isn't your vote on Jacob then? It's still sitting on Cheery.

I don't want to lynch Jacob today, as I now have a town feel about him for not voting Cheery.

If we can't get a Doc lynch, I'd consider AA9. She's moved up my list past Jacob and HD (both of whom I now lean town).

NicCage · Post Post #1271 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 10:19 am

I'd rather lynch Jacob than anyone else.

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #1272 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 10:59 am

In post 1270, Jennifer wrote:@AA9 Why isn't your vote on Jacob then? It's still sitting on Cheery.

I don't want to lynch Jacob today, as I now have a town feel about him for not voting Cheery.

If we can't get a Doc lynch, I'd consider AA9. She's moved up my list past Jacob and HD (both of whom I now lean town).

how irony is that yesterday that you convinced heavily that i am town now all of sudden you want to lynch me?
Why?

the only reason i didn't unvote cherry, i haven't made my mind in voting jacob yet, i am still discussing through it and my vote on cherry is not doing any damage to anyone, what surprises how quickly your thought process changed.

CityElectric · Post Post #1273 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 11:25 am

Votecount 3.3

Docteur Gudsight (L-2):

Human Destroyer, borkjerfkin, Jennifer

Cheery Dog (L-3):

ArcAngel9, NicCage

Human Destroyer (L-3):

Docteur Gudsight, JacobSavage

JacobSavage (L-4):

Cheery Dog

Not voting (1):

KX

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends in (expired on 2013-03-10 17:00:00)

Jennifer · Post Post #1274 (ISO) » Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:01 pm

In post 1272, ArcAngel9 wrote:how irony is that yesterday that you convinced heavily that i am town now all of sudden you want to lynch me?
Why?

the only reason i didn't unvote cherry, i haven't made my mind in voting jacob yet, i am still discussing through it and my vote on cherry is not doing any damage to anyone, what surprises how quickly your thought process changed.

Yesterday you weren't trying to lynch a non-cc mason and refusing to put your vote somewhere useful. I'm suspicious when people don't place a vote that matches what they're saying. It makes me think you're trying to avoid your stated opinion being recorded on the official Vote Count and relying on people's tendencies to have a short-term memory.

You voting Jacob wouldn't even put him at L-1 so there's literally no reason not to vote him if he's your top lynch target for the day.

@MOD: I think Nic's vote is now on Jacob, not Cheery.