The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[Nostredeus]

You're even scummy at math. Nostresignerrordeus.

not only that, but when he tries to point out why he's not BT's buddy, HE SIMPLY REITERATES THE THINGS THAT WERE SAID LINKING HIM AS BT'S BUDDY


the fuck?

My maths is legit, learn 2 BIDMAS bro.

[(2*2)-(3+1+1+(6*1))-((3/3)+3) whack that into a calculator, and stick with psychology.]


Anyway, please highlight this reiteration of things, *sniff*, yup, it smells like bullshit to me.

[Nostredeus]

After looking at who could be tml's or equinox's buddy I checked some other people. Assuming that scum is unlikely to bus aggressively, which is likely from day two on following the bad day one for them, if Nost isn't scum, then there is very likely scum in most people's *very likely town list*. So Nost is probably scum, and if he flips town, we learn something from his lynch.

Cool, so if BT and I are town who does that indicate is scum; I'll give you a hint, you can find out by looking at yesterday's wagons. (People lie, votes and flips don't.)

[Zdenek]

That's not how minus signs work.

If you two are both town, I'd have to think about it, but I'd put TML on the table for sure.

[Nostredeus]

That's good enough for me, scum have lost enough people for town to lose a couple on the way to Equinox/TML dying; I'd rather it wasn't that way and I'll keep opposing it but if it must go down like that then fine. CDB will be alive at that point and he can make sure town actually stay on course this time.

[kuribo]

Anyway, please highlight this reiteration of things, *sniff*, yup, it smells like bullshit to me.

You and BT are so much alike right now, I'd swear you're a hydra playing two slots.

[Zdenek]

That's good enough for me, scum have lost enough people for town to lose a couple on the way to Equinox/TML dying; I'd rather it wasn't that way and I'll keep opposing it but if it must go down like that then fine. CDB will be alive at that point and he can make sure town actually stay on course this time.

Thanks for letting us know that there's only two scum left.

[kuribo]

Basically I couldn't give a damn about BT, equinox is where today's lynch should be and frankly if I've buddied anyone surely it's Plessie or CDB or frak even Jason? I mean maybe BT is scum, that explains some stuff about yesterday's wagons. Examples being the lack of TML's presence on the BT wagon when it was a frankly easy opportunity, it also highlights a distinguishing factor between camn and TML that'll be handy to have. Honestly though it's not the right place to look; yesterday's wagons played out the way they did for a reason, I'm the only person offering an explanation, feel free to provide a counter narrative at any point.

(I play mafia with maths, vote counts, and so on; you play mafia with one hand down your pants and one hand holding a copy of psychology for dummies. Different styles do not necessarily equal different alignments and mine is totally consistent site wide *shrugs*.)

"I couldn't give a damn about BT," well, obviously, because we've made the case that you guys have been stuck up one anothers' asses.

"Equinox is where today's lynch should be," which makes sense, since why lynch your scum buddy?

"If I've buddied anyone, surely it's----" let me stop you right there. And leave. When I come back, I'll point out that this is ridiculous because YOU HAVE buddied BT. Whether he's town or scum, you're linked to him, and his reaction since this was pointed out only makes it more glaring.

"I mean maybe BT is scum, that explains some stuff about yesterday's wagon" You mean like the frustration when the Kise counter-wagon fizzled? And how SAD got run up at the last minute? Yup.

"Yesterday's wagons happened that way yesterday for a reason" You're god damn right they did, and they saved BT's ass.

"I'm the only person offering an explanation," No. You're analyzing things while commenting very little on them, and trying to use the analysis to feed us a narrative.

"Sniff" that "bullshit," you scumfuck.

[Nostredeus]

That was like, laughably bad.

"I couldn't give a damn about BT," well, obviously, because we've made the case that you guys have been stuck up one anothers' asses.

That's pretty weird, I gave a reason for why I couldn't give a damn, you've cut the quote off and substituted your own reason; like, I'm not sure how this is supposed to be me using the reasons you think I'm BT's scumbuddy to say why I'm not, but hey ho like I said bullshit.

"Equinox is where today's lynch should be," which makes sense, since why lynch your scum buddy?

Again, I've given reasons for why Equinox should die so I dunno what this is supposed to prove.

"If I've buddied anyone, surely it's----" let me stop you right there. And leave. When I come back, I'll point out that this is ridiculous because YOU HAVE buddied BT. Whether he's town or scum, you're linked to him, and his reaction since this was pointed out only makes it more glaring.

Yeah, so I gave you a list of people I've clearly buddied up to more, either the whole "Nost buddied X so they're both scum" is bullshit or you need to pick BT/me some more logically consistent buddies.

"I mean maybe BT is scum, that explains some stuff about yesterday's wagon" You mean like the frustration when the Kise counter-wagon fizzled? And how SAD got run up at the last minute? Yup.

Yup.

"Yesterday's wagons happened that way yesterday for a reason" You're god damn right they did, and they saved BT's ass.

Yup, we've already discussed this, so I dunno what your point is.

"I'm the only person offering an explanation," No. You're analyzing things while commenting very little on them, and trying to use the analysis to feed us a narrative.

Some more of this dubious bullshit to clean up I see; I'm making a very basic and easy to understand claim. If you put plessie and kuribo in the conf town column along with the obv townies then you look at the wagons from yesterday you get to a really simple conclusion: Either all of the wagons were on scum OR TML/Camn were jumping on every opportunity to get a townie lynched. If you don't buy it feel free to say some stuff that engages with that claim, because all I've been hearing today is heap tonnes of dubious shit.


Anyway, I need to get back to working, so if you have any more things to say that you think are clever my responses to them will have to wait.

[Plessiezarus]

Um. Can people stop trying to do maths in the thread, please?

Or at least learn why parentheses are important and what BIDMAS actually means?

Normally I expect to be paid to read stuff like that.

I'm still more confident in the TML/Equinox wagon than anything else and I still think that's the best lynch. But the nature of Tammy's push on BT makes me feel somewhat less paranoid about the Cerulean slot, so I suppose that's something. (Is the neighborhood QT full of posts like 2474 and 2482?)

I honestly don't think Equinox is scum based off now likely ancient meta but I'll go over those when I'm done with this exam.

Hmm. Zar's looked at some Equinox meta and thinks it supports that slot being scum . So we'd be interested to see this. (Preferably before the day ends, if you're going to be back from V/LA by then?)

Deadline isn't far away and I'm gonna be busy for the next few days but I do want to reanalyze Nost and compare with TML/Equinox now. They're probably not scum together, at any rate.

Then you should string him up either before or after me? Hint hint?

Oh, I know this one! (It's "after", right? I'm not very good at picking up subtle hints...)

I'm not seeing why Equinox and Nost can't be scum together . Nost claiming to be suspicious of TML from day 1 onwards but not doing anything to really push a wagon is not a great point against it, nor is Equinox voting Nost for a few hours (at a time he was in no danger of being lynched) and then jumping to a different wagon.

~ Pless

[ChannelDelibird]

Just FYI: I got almost no sleep last night and am now apocalyptically tired. I might read the BT & Nost stuff today if I get less cranky but it's entirely plausible that I'm just gonna fuck it off and play videogames until I fall into a coma.

[Plessiezarus]

This is probably going to be my last reply to Nostredeus before the deadline, since back and forth walls are a pain for everyone and I'd rather focus on getting Equinox lynched today.

Spoiler: What does Nost think about Jason?

So, let me get this straight. I'm showing a serious lack of willingness to change my reads but at the same time if I change my read on the Jason-Scotty situation I've some how ignored my previous game-state? You can't have it both ways mate, pick one side of that fence and I'll defend against it.

You're showing a lack of willingness to change your

reads

, yes. Nobody could ever accuse you of not being willing to change the arguments you give for those reads though.

I mean, look, it's pretty simple. On day 2, you claim a town-read on Jason. At the same time, you claim a scum-read on sotty. In 1250, while commenting on sotty's reversal on Jason, you say "I'm happy to say I think at least one of them are scum". It's not clear why you come to this conclusion, but -- given that you apparently did -- why did you not spend any time on day 3 re-assessing your town read on Jason?

(If the only reason you had to think "at least one of them" was scum was your scum-read on sotty, then why the non-sequitur?)

Spoiler: PoE and the SAD wagon

Regarding the SAD wagon, I had town reads on the other members PoE suggests TML scum, that's really not a controversial way of narrowing down the lynch options for today.

That's .. actually not how PoE works, though. PoE starting with the whole player list works because, once you've identified most of the town, scum must be left in the remaining group. But you're focusing on the SAD wagon, a group of players that might not contain

any

scum. In fact, it's a group of players that you mostly have town-reads on to start with!

I mean, look, let's just examine the logic at work here. You start off by picking out the SAD wagon as worthy of special focus. When pushed, you explain (in 2314) that this is because you think the wagon is "likely scum motivated" and that you are suspicious of "wagons with members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters, SAD's wagon has both". So you are focusing on the SAD wagon because it contains (multiple!) members who have behaved in a way you find suspicious.

And yet, when you actually look at the SAD wagon (which you'd already done, in 2198) you note that the wagon consists of dead townies, mod-confirmed town Zdenek, yourself, and multiple people you claim a town-read on. [Actually, the wagon also had camn on, but you don't mention her here at all. Er. Actually, why not?] Now "PoE" leads you to accuse TML, but in the process you have

completely undermined

your given reason for focusing on the SAD wagon. On the one hand, you are focusing on the SAD wagon because it has people (multiple people!) on it who you think have done something suspicious. On the other hand, everyone on this wagon apart from TML [and camn, who you're ignoring for whatever reason in this post] is somebody you had a town-read on or knew was town because they'd flipped.

Either

you can think it's worth focusing on the SAD wagon because there are several suspicious people on it ("members who don't make an effort to consider other cases" and "compromise voters") and it is possibly "scum motivated".

Or

you can have pre-existing town-reads on everybody on the wagon but TML. But I don't see how you can do both. (You might start off by thinking more than one person on the wagon is suspicious and then after rereading decide they're town, but that's clearly not what happened.) This just feels like you're hunting for reasons to justify your already-decided on read of TML. I can't see any logically consistent reason to focus on the SAD wagon at the expense of everything else.

Spoiler: Vote hopping

The reason I suspect Camn and TML is BECAUSE of their presence on every significant wagon, usually late in the day with the exception of TML on Kise but the reason I don't like that is more down to the claim. It smacks of wagon hopping, it smacks of opportunism; if you can show me another player who was on every significant wagon then I'm happy to re-evaluate, you and I know that wont be possible however.

Well, first of all this isn't why you claimed to suspect TML originally at all. And second, as I've already pointed out, Jason was on three significant wagons: kuribo, Kise and SAD. That's as many serious wagons as TML was on. (Yes, yes, you've decided kuribo wasn't a significant wagon and everyone only pretended to suspect his slot because of his playstyle, even the people who were voting for the slot before kuribo replaced in . I don't care about that: kuribo was clearly one of day 2's serious wagons. The fact you claim not to understand why people suspected that slot should make you

more

suspicious of the people on it, if anything.)

Some more of this dubious bullshit to clean up I see; I'm making a very basic and easy to understand claim. If you put plessie and kuribo in the conf town column along with the obv townies then you look at the wagons from yesterday you get to a really simple conclusion: Either all of the wagons were on scum OR TML/Camn were jumping on every opportunity to get a townie lynched. If you don't buy it feel free to say some stuff that engages with that claim, because all I've been hearing today is heap tonnes of dubious shit.

I don't understand what putting me+Zar or kuribo in the "conf town column" has to do with the conclusion you reach, for a start. Or why the only options are "every wagon [except SAD's] was on scum" or "every person TML/camn voted for was town", either.

But also: despite admitting in 2423 that you need to explain why vote hopping is scum motivated, you haven't done so. "But guys, they vote-hopped

more than once

" doesn't cut it.

Spoiler: BT

"Yesterday's wagons happened that way yesterday for a reason" You're god damn right they did, and they saved BT's ass.

Yup, we've already discussed this, so I dunno what your point is.

If you agree that the suspicious thing about yesterday's wagons is that they "saved BT's ass", why were you 'analysing' the wagons and concluding we should lynch TML? (I mean, yes, obviously you'd already decided to vote TML before you 'analysed' anything, but let's pretend that's not the case, shall we?)

Why, if you think that yesterday's wagons happened as they did because somebody was trying to protect BT, did you give a list of suspects you'd consider other than TML -- namely "Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, [The-Mini Librarian], ChannelDeliBird" -- that didn't include BT, in your 2239?

If you think the BT wagon not ending in a lynch is somehow suspicious, why did you repeatedly dismiss both the day 2 wagons in general and the one on BT in particular? Why did you say "there legit isn't a case on BT" when BT was on four votes, why did you insist "I'm not lynching BT" shortly before that?

Or, to put it in more directly: if you thought all the wagons yesterday were bad and that the one on BT was especially so (which is why you switched to SAD instead), how can you agree with Cerulean's claim that "the reason" for the wagons to happen the way they did was to save BT?

Spoiler: Pointless snark

P-Edit: What kind of a response is that. :/

I can't help but notice that this post came twenty minutes after the previous one, and almost half an hour after the Equinox post you're presumably responding to. Why were you so reluctant to believe Equinox might have taken 21 minutes to write 2448, again?

~ Pless

[ChannelDelibird]

Looks like I'm playing some mafia today after all...

@actiondan: Do you know the name of your qt? (Essentially do you know if your qt name is Orlando's or not?)

Still think, in light of Pless's theory, this needs to be considered more strongly as a reason to lynch Equinox.

[ChannelDelibird]

Rereading today at the moment for BT/Nost stuff. In the meantime:

JASON!

Yes, you. Please put some effort into this game. Thanks.

[ChannelDelibird]

The above makes me suspicious of heavily stable wagons with members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters, SAD's wagon has both.

Pretend I'm town for a moment. Do you think there's a difference between what happened with the Ser Arthur Dayne wagon and what's happening with the Equinox wagon?

Could be confirmation bias but I don't see why Equinox has to add the caveat of "pretend I'm town" here. If he believes in the point and is appealing to Nost as a townie (which he appears to be doing, given that he's addressing Nost directly rather than pointing out his flaws in reasoning to the town as a whole), then the point should stand up by itself without needing to subtly emphasise the idea that Equinox is town.

[ChannelDelibird]

Rereading Day 3 makes me still more comfortable with my Nost townread; Equinox reads like scum who reckons he can take down one last mislynch before the inevitable occurs. Totally 100% not interested in a Nost lynch today.

BT I could see as more likely but I also don't think there's any chance that I'd want to move away from Equinox in order to vote him today.

[ChannelDelibird]

One last thing I spotted while reading,

FAO Zdenek

:

Camn and Jason are unlikely to be scum because of Absta interactions.

And all this chatter about me- I would ignore it. There is no amount of bussing that I would be unwilling to do, as scum, and thus it is all WIFOM.

she's either SK or town, her interaction with absta would require incredibly ballsy bussing

I thought I mentioned it- there is no limit to my ability to buss.

[Zdenek]

It's more about whether Absta was bussing than whether she was bussing.

[ChannelDelibird]

It's more about whether Absta was bussing than whether she was bussing.

OK, I can understand this; it doesn't fit with a part of Pless's meta analysis. Personally, I feel camn's scumminess and the fact that she's practically begging us to WIFOM her absta interactions (which benefits her not a jot as town, by the way, as opposed to the headfuckery that suits camnscum) are enough to override that particular concern, but this is of course a discussion for a future day. Just wanted camn's WIFOM made loud and clear in case I die more than anything else.

[kuribo]

I'm trying to keep my murderous ranting and violent rage to the QT where it wont make people whine about derailment


But Nos and BT are literally the only people I'll vote today. It doesn't matter which goes first but by God I beat be pissing on one of their graves at the end of the day.

Every defense just boils down to lololol u so stupid. Their blatant attempts to discredit their wagons are so insanely scummy that I just want to vomit white hot fury into the thread


But then Jason, Ben, kise, and camn will just use that as an excuse for their lazy ass posting

Seriously. All four of you can't be scum. Get your shit together or replace the fuck out

[The Baltimore Sun]

Day 3, Votecount 18

ChannelDeliBird (1) - Benmage
Equinox (4) - ChannelDelibird, BT, Nostredeus, Plessiezarus

BT (6) - kuribo, Deasvail, Cerulean, Zdenek, camn, Equinox

Not voting (2) :

JasonT1981, Shaft

• With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
  
• Deadline is on 9th of March at 17:15pm GMT
  
• Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2013-03-09 13:15:28)
  
• Deasvail is V/la

[Benmage]

Bare with me guys.. FUcking RL has been draining, and being sick makes concentrating and reading a pain. I'm trying to forcemyself back as I think we have a little over 3 days to deadline. Bare with me if I repeat a few things....

Regarding the Kise flip: The information was simply to clarify a number of reads I had on people, for example I've already mentioned that it has solidified my read on you.

Kise didn't flip? SO how does his non-flip change/solidify your read on TML/equinox???

@ALL: If plezzie and kuribo are town, also given the flips, what is your interpretation of yesterday's wagons. This really isn't that complex.

I'm not sure what you're trying to suggest: Final Votecount

First glance I'd say there's scum in Jason/TML/You..but I remember yesterday vote switching was crazy, and I'm not going to dissect it right now. Can you just explain what you're hinting at?

Nost seems far more concerned with justifying his behaviour and his votes than he is with actually hunting for scum.

Seems a recurring theme:

pick one side of that fence

and I'll defend against it.

A lot easier to defend oneself and find logical flaws in attackers then to do attacking.

You might be noticing a trend in the way TML played yesterday

Can you start explaining things instead of the letting the 'reader' try and find your conclusion... It doesn't seem like you need us to reach the epiphany ourselves... so just save some time and explain what "trend" I should have noticed. Because I don't see it.

The wagons yesterday were frankly very revealing

This is actually a prime example of the superficial analysis I was complaining about above. Based on this post I can tell you

who

Nost suspects, but I can't tell you

why

. Nost doesn't seem to have talked about camn much before, but I don't know what it is that makes him suspect her now. Both camn and TML were on several wagons yesterday -- is that suspicious? If scum do "one of two things", and one of those things is to tunnel on a single player while ignoring other cases, why doesn't your "analysis" lead you to suspect somebody like DV?

I agree with this superficial statements. Nost says scum will remain constant on a wagon, yet
in my interpretation it looks like his issue with TML is that he wagon jumped?
--He goes through the wagons, and says XXX for this one YYY for this one.. and repeats usually with TML/ or camn.. at the end he points to the trend... but I don’t know why the fuck he pulls them off the wagons and I don’t know what trend I’m suppose to notice, unless it’s the trend of being on the wagons... which doesn’t make sense with his point of scum remaining constant on a wagon. If he wants to say they’re guilty of attempting easy wagoning... I would disagree, that that occurred.

Equinox, are you saying you find Zdenek potentially scummy? If so can you please link me a game with a scum aligned friendly neighbor, I could do with a source or two to see how scum friendly neighbors play and I can't find an example of it happening.

In a nonbastard game this is impossible.

[Benmage]

Let me just catch up with these few pages, I'm still pretty adamant against a BT lynch. (I'll rebreakdown why)

There's something I wanted to go back to.. I'll get too.

@Kuribo/anyone on BT really if you do have bullets of the biggest complaints it'll help as I go back.

[Zdenek]

The thing is that Benmage makes for a way more likely buddy of Equinox than Nost. He says little about him, but does defend him from Nost.

-TML hasn't really had any negative contribution. His posting albeit low, is pretty good (I don't think he's ever very prolific?). Looks like genuine reading/questioning, and he does give reads which is something you need to be more wary of if someone's coasting(That is coasting and not giving reads). Think you're jumping the gun a little early with the lack of questioning on his spot. Tis D1.

If Equinox flipped scum, I'd be hard pressed to lynch anyone else.

[Benmage]

The thing is... scumbenmage doesn't buddy. Scum Benmage NEEDS NO BUDDIES RAWR! I'm a little out of it.

[Equinox]

Oh, I know this one! (It's "after", right? I'm not very good at picking up subtle hints...)

I'm not seeing why Equinox and Nost can't be scum together . Nost claiming to be suspicious of TML from day 1 onwards but not doing anything to really push a wagon is not a great point against it, nor is Equinox voting Nost for a few hours (at a time he was in no danger of being lynched) and then jumping to a different wagon.

Actually, I was just not-subtly-at-all hinting that I wanted Nostredeus dead at some point, though having that happen "before" would be superb, yes.

As for your point that I only voted Nostredeus for a few hours: you will note that we have only a few days left to deadline and 2 people on V/LA. I'd love to lynch Nostredeus, but the only other person who happens to think the same way about how vaguely skeevy (or skeevily vague, or maybe both) he's been -- you -- also wants me dead, so I realize that Nostredeus flipping on Day 3 isn't as big of a possibility as I'd like it to be.

Could be confirmation bias but I don't see why Equinox has to add the caveat of "pretend I'm town" here. If he believes in the point and is appealing to Nost as a townie (which he appears to be doing, given that he's addressing Nost directly rather than pointing out his flaws in reasoning to the town as a whole), then the point should stand up by itself without needing to subtly emphasise the idea that Equinox is town.

That's confirmation bias, ChannelDelibird. I wasn't appealing to Nostredeus; I was trying to get him into reveal his thought process by forcing him into that hypothetical situation to get him to do wagon analysis before my flip, as opposed to after when he can fit his analyses into whatever-shaped holes he likes.