Vote count analysis:
Loran wagon wrote:Loranthaceae: 6 (
guille2015
, penguin_alien,
CityElectric, Adam-12, Junpei, T-Bone
)
Malakittens: 3 (
Mehdi2277
, Juls,
Jal
)
Adam-12
: 2 (Lastsurvivor, Malakittens)
Jal
: 1 (GreyICE)
Not Voting: 1 (Loranthaceae)
If there was more than one scum on Loran, the only option left is PA. Her vote came immediately after Guille's, which I think would be fairly cheeky play for scum. In the same vein, LS and Mala sitting on Adam together doesn't look like standard scum-pair behavior. It turns out the Loran-wagon was strongly town-driven on the back-end.
guille lynch wrote:guille2015
: 7 (GreyICE,
T-Bone
, mastin2,
Mehdi2277
, Malakittens, penguin_alien, Loranthaceae)
Loranthaceae: 3 (
guille2015
,
CityElectric, Adam-12
)
Malakittens: 1 (
Jal
)
Adam-12
: 1 (Lastsurvivor)
Not Voting: 1 (
Junpei
)
It's a veritable party! Only one person alive who wasn't on the guille lynch, and I think it's null as far as LS is concerned. The wagon happened very fast, and he claims he wasn't around to comment or participate, which I find believable.
At least one person is bussing, likely two.
GreyIce's looks like a pure pressure vote, and he seemed to be legitimately upset by the hammer. If this reaction was faked, I tip my hat to him.
Mastin presented a guille/PA/Mala scumteam along with his vote. I can see this as a bus, but it's kind of doubtful he would implicate his other scumbuddy at the same time (mitigated by the fact that he proceeded to shift his attention away from both Mala/PA as things went further)
Mala and PA are the obvious bus candidates. I think PA's placement looks somewhat more scummy, as I'd think scum would be more comfortable placing the L-1 vote on a speedwagon like this than town. They both look pretty bad though.
Loran's vote is the real puzzler here. I don't think his reasoning for it stands up for scrutiny (basically "it was a shitty bandwagon and I didn't want it to disband, so I hammered") as it means he took a stupid risk if he's town, but I struggle to see the scum angle
LastSurvivor wagon wrote:CityElectric
: 2 (Malakittens,
Mehdi227
)
Malakittens: 2 (Lastsurvivor, GreyICE)
Lastsurvivor: 5 (mastin2, penguin_alien, Loranthaceae,
Jal, AngryPidgeon
)
Not Voting: 1 (
Junpei, CityElectric
)
Classic deadline wagon. The only person I think looks good in this scenario is LS, because any of Mastin, PA, Loran could have pushed for CE instead if they were scum with him. Mala is implicated somewhat for the same reason, both PA and Loran were on CE shortly before (making it L-2) and if either of them were scum with Mala, I could see them wanting to spread their votes around. GreyIce was supremely inactive at this stage, so can't really be evalued. Mastin has a slight blemish for attacking Jal joining the wagon while being on it himself (mitigated by looming deadline).
qwints vs. AP, D2 lynch wrote:qwints
: 5 (mastin2,
AngryPidgeon, Jal
, penguin_alien, Loranthaceae)
AngryPidgeon
: 4 (
Nachomamma8
, Malakittens,
qwints
, Lastsurvivor)
Malakittens: 1 (GreyICE)
Not Voting: 1 (
CityElectric
)
Loran switched from AP to qwints and was actually all over the place.
This VC features the single most scummy thing PA has done in this game IMO. She had previously expressed willingness to vote AP and her move onto the counterwagon felt very calculated to me. This strongly supports a narrative of PA/Mala or PA/LS.
Mala's placement here is consistent at least, as is Mastin's, who's voting against what he sees as a town-wagon. GI was very much MIA. LS's vote is only somewhat questionable to me because whereas previously stated he changed his mind pretty abruptly on AP, he was previously on qwints and I don't see why LS-scum would want to jump from one town wagon to another in such a fashion.
AP proceeded to self-vote and Loran... didn't hammer? Things like this is why I'm not fully convinced of Loran's innocence. He hammered a scum without prejudice, despite calling it a terrible wagon, but he's extremely hesitant to hammer someone here who he had previously voted and helped get wagoned. He actually voted a variety of people (Nacho, LS, Mala) while AP was at D1, seemingly trying to do anything
but
hammering. Suggests inside knowledge.
qwints L-1 wrote:Vote Count: 5 to lynch
qwints
: 3 (penguin_alien, mastin2,
Nachomamma8
, LastSurvivor)
UberNinja: 1 (Loranthaceae)
CityElectric: 1 (qwints)
penguin_alien: 1 (UberNinja)
Not Voting: 3 (
CityElectric
, Malakittens)
First time qwints is run up early D3. At this point, Mala refuses the wagon, citing her "really, really town" read on Mehdi.
PA takes her vote off, ostensibly to give UN time to read, and Loran immediately puts his on.
Then there's little overall movement until we arrive at the lynch:
D3 lynch wrote:qwints
: 5 (mastin2,
Nachomamma8
, Lastsurvivor, Malakittens, Loranthaceae)
Nachomamma8
: 2 (UberNinja,
CrashTextDummie
)
Lastsurvivor: 1 (
qwints
)
Not Voting: 1 (penguin_alien)
Things of note here:
Mala has joined the qwints wagon after all despite her very, very strong Mehdi read.
Loran once again wildly threw his vote around while a town-player he previously helped wagon sat at L-1. The reasoning he provided me in his QT on why he hammered kind of falls apart here. He claimed he hammered to "free us of Nacho's tyranny", that he knew Nacho would get NKd after a qwints lynch and that this would give us a clean start with hopefully a more competent MR. If that was truly his thought process, it begs the question of why he didn't hammer sooner. Qwints was L-1 for a significant amount of time, during which Loran voted LS, PA and UN.
After taking her vote off, PA proceeded to do nothing much at all.
UN decidedly refused the qwints wagon.
---------------------
General observations:
LS comes off best. There are several indicators that he's town and no indicators that he's scum based on the vote counts.
Mastin2 was early on all the wagons he participated in, which makes it hard to pin anything on him. Guille lynch makes it somewhat unlikely that he's scum with Mala or PA (who are individually quite likely to be scum) and actually reduces potential scumpairs significantly.
MalaKitten is kind of the flipside of LS. Several scum points, no town points.
UN's slot was missing for large chunks of the action, but his observable voting behavior is solid.
PA's voting behavior looks the most out of anyone's like it's tailored to a purpose. Of note, PA and Mala never voted together (with the notable exception of the D1 lynch) to the point where it looks deliberate. PA wouldn't join the AP wagon on D2 despite voicing support earlier and Mala doesn't join the qwints wagon until PA is off.
Loran turbohammered scum but was very hesitant to hammer town people (despite a general display of hammer-glee). While this looks good on the surface, it's a noticeable pattern and the reasoning he's provided for his actions don't really hold up, making him individually scummy.
-------------------
In summary:
LS should probably never be lynched, Mastin might be town after all, there's evidence towards a possible PA-Mala scumteam and Loran shouldn't be cleared.
I would like some input on this from everyone.
[i]Mgm laughed nervously, his cheeks flushing in the faintest of blushes. "Patrick... I only wanted to be with you... that's why I put the game to night, so Glork would get killed."[/i] - the heartwarming conclusion of Face to Face Mafia
