Mini 1413 - The Mind Reader Mafia - Game Over

[UberNinja]

UberNinja, I do think that proposing a compromise lynch when CTD hasn't rejected your first choice is less than rigorous.

You do, do you?

Well here's what I think.

I think that "less than rigorous" are the kinds of weasel words that scum use when they're trying to throw dirt on somebody who otherwise is obvtown.

So good luck w/that line of thinking.

[CrashTextDummie]

Loran, common wisdom is that PA is scum trying to fan the flames of our paranoia with stuff like that. I think you're overly paranoid when it comes to UN, starting from your "UN killed Jal for meta reasons" theory and arriving at your latest argument. I don't think your arguments are wrong per se, I just don't see them being very probable at all. I do find it very pro-town what you're doing right now, and the fact that you are looking at LS and UN when you would have 2 mislynches practically secured in the PA/Mal/Mastin pile as scum rules you out much more definitively for me than your play style. And I do think there's merit to your LS suspicion. I looked at a bunch of his games (actually skimmed pretty much all of them), and while I think the meta comparison is inconclusive, I do think some aspects of his play here more closely resemble his scum play. Not the question thing you've been harping on because quite frankly we're not on the same page on what constitutes scummy questioning and from what I saw he has a very similar style of scumhunting across alignments, but he does seem to have a tendency to have stagnant votes as scum for example and he did leave his D1 and 2 votes (on Adam, Medi) for an inordinate amount of time.

The thing is that I have other reasons to see him as town. His reaction to my claim struck me as the most pro-town out of anyone, in that he immediately started analyzing people he previously didn't consider (Mastin) and the way he established his reads struck me as internally consistent and organic. His analyses don't seem tailored to a purpose, he's allowed himself to change his mind based on rereads and didn't match them to fit his previous suspicions. If he's scum, he's done a very good job in my estimation to appear pro-town.

If

he's scum, I think it's more likely with PA than Mala for reasons I can't articulate without rereading and please don't forget that.

Loran, do you have a town read on either Mala or PA or are you just trying to cover all bases? This is probably the last issue stopping me from being ready to vote.

-----------------

Mastin, if I see that I've been fundamentally wrong in my reads, I generally reread. I don't fall back onto previous reads because I generally don't develop town reads from scum reads for reasons I don't remember. I think this may be a general difference in how we approach this game, hence why I was bothered by the disconnect between early-Mastin and late-game-Mastin. I am much more at ease with you now that I've looked into that Harry Potter/Metal Gear Solid game, it

does

compare an awful lot to this game when it comes to your play and this pretty much alleviates most of the concerns I've been having about you. In thinking it over after my VCA, I've pretty much arrived at the conclusion that you're town anyway, I can't reconcile you being scum with either of Mala/PA, just as I can reconcile a scenario in which neither of them is scum.

----------------

Lynching PA, Mala and LS should win this game. I find both PA/Mala and PA/LS more likely than Mala/LS, so PA would be my preferred lynch.

[Loranthaceae]

The thing is that I have other reasons to see him as town. His reaction to my claim struck me as the most pro-town out of anyone, in that he immediately started analyzing people he previously didn't consider (Mastin) and the way he established his reads struck me as internally consistent and organic.

I still can't be motivated to read mastin's ISO.. so I don't see it. Establishing reads shouldn't be consistent. The mind processes a game from thousands of different angles and quite frankly it's a pain to always have to explain how you got them as town. As scum it's very enjoyable.

[penguin_alien]

UberNinja, CTD has said that your predecessor figured out who the MR was on Day One and commited to that read in his QT. If he was scum, there was no reason to do so in that way. He could have shared in the scum QT only. He could have played dumb with the MR; no signal was involved, after all. Even if it was a con job, there's no benefit to keeping someone around who can become a confirmed townie at any time, and certainly not for another two days. Loranthaceae's arguments don't hold water (see next paragraph) so I'm not inclined to change my town read on your slot, even if you're not choosing to present an argument for my lynch beyond PoE. I maintain that your jump from Malakittens to me is unsubstantiated and so worth challenging.

Regarding Loranthaceae's points:
1) The quickhammer on Day One was bad, independent of whether GreyICE thought we might have lynched the MR by virtue of it happening too quickly to allow us to milk information out of guille2015.
2 and 3) I don't know what he picked up on, so I don't know what tipped him off. My first thought would be that he read into Junpei's asking people to commit to their QT strategies in-thread as wanting them to be on record about their takes and he mentioned that he'd prefer the answers in the thread. As opposed to...? I didn't read that into his post at the time, but it's a possibility. If CTD can elaborate on that before the day phase ends, it might be good to know, I guess.
4) This wouldn't have looked good, I'll grant you. But if scum wanted to take that approach, why mention it in the QT at all?
5) The qwints mislynch would have been even easier to push if Nachomamma8 had flipped as the MR Night Two, since the dead can't change their reads, and Nachomamma8 would have been sheeped more heavily.

As for UberNinja pushing to lynch Nachomamma8 based on ego aiming to string up the MR, do you think he thought he could succeed in that? Since Nachomamma8 could have revealed to everyone at any time? That would be darn egotistical.

[CrashTextDummie]

unvote, vote: PA

[penguin_alien]

So you prefer people to kiss up and be all penitent about incorrect reads. Got it.

And you think I sat around Day One being confused and irritated about the confirmation delay accusations when I could have figured it out much more quickly if I had scum buddies telling me I was late to the game. Because irritating people on purpose over trivial aspects of the game is a good way to avoid being lynched.

I guess we're allowed to vote now.

VOTE: Malakittens

[penguin_alien]

More seriously, what have I done that's scummy aside from not dancing to your tune? You say I didn't dive into reevaluating my reads quickly enough when we learned you were town. If I'd had you as scum due to an association with another player, sure, but I didn't have linked scum reads at that point, which means that you being town doesn't negate anything else. You giving opinions that come from confirmed town, sure, but you spent days questioning people about their QTs and deliberately misleading us about your actual reads.

[penguin_alien]

CTD, I would ask you to share the info on how GreyICE found Junpei to be the MR to clear that up and who you think scum are if you're wrong about me before the end of the phase. On account of you are.

[UberNinja]

unvote, vote: PA

So you prefer people to kiss up and be all penitent about incorrect reads. Got it.

And you think I sat around Day One being confused and irritated about the confirmation delay accusations when I could have figured it out much more quickly if I had scum buddies telling me I was late to the game. Because irritating people on purpose over trivial aspects of the game is a good way to avoid being lynched.

I guess we're allowed to vote now.

VOTE: Malakittens

Unvote; Vote: penguin_alien

this pompous ass-kissing for days, and then suddenly, when voted, votes the other wagon to encourage a hammer on anyone but herself

LOL NOPE

[UberNinja]

i mean seriously, look at that shit

honestly that's the scummiest thing i've seen all game

[penguin_alien]

So are you going with a Malakittens-Lastsurvivor scum team if I flip town? Since mastin2 has become a town read for you.

[UberNinja]

"if" you flip town

lol

[UberNinja]

ARE you town?

[penguin_alien]

Yes, but my lynch isn't decided yet.

[UberNinja]

what does that have to do with your alignment?

and explain to me in small words what you've done that might have a slight prayer of making me think you're town

i am notorious for last-minute mercy, if you are convincing enough

[CrashTextDummie]

"if" you flip town

lol

Nail, meet coffin.

[UberNinja]

nonono i thought so too but let's give her one last chance

also i know how susceptible she is to shitty endgame mislynches based on ny 161

and i was the one pushing it, in that game

so

yah

[UberNinja]

so penguin alien

sup

[penguin_alien]

Well, if you think Loranthaceae is town, I listened to a reasoanable argument to move to voting guille2015 Day One where I could have justified keeping my vote. I've explained where it would have been easy for scum-me to hammer AngryPidgeon post-page 42 and didn't. I opted to listen to what you had to say about qwints on Day Three when I had ample opportunity to hammer again.

What have I done that's scummy?

[UberNinja]

other than opportunistic voting, strategic lurking, weasel words, reactionary behavior, and ticking all of my scumdar checkboxes at the same time?

well, not much i guess

[penguin_alien]

Listening to people's arguments and deciding based on what I hear isn't opportunistic. I don't lurk strategically; I post when I have the time to do so and something to say. I say what I mean; I don't say things I don't mean, and if that means I avoid absolutes, then I guess I am guilty of using weasel words. I would argue that a lot of this game is reactionary; after the initial posts are made, most everything is done in reaction to another player's words. Pulling gambits is action-based rather than reactionary, and since I don't do that I'll concede that point as well. Setting off your scumdar, that I have nothing.

[UberNinja]

no, this is what you call opportunism

AND fear

AND abdication of responsibility

unvote, vote: PA

I guess we're allowed to vote now.

VOTE: Malakittens

a) nobody can stop you from voting, way to try to pin your not-having-voted-anybody directly onto CTD
b) i love how you voted right after he voted for you, like you couldn't have voted before. i have been voting mala the whole time
c) if you're scum with mala that was masterful distancing btw

it boils down to: you're trying to make confirmed town (CTD) and basically confirmed town (me) look scummy or inconsistent or anti-town in any way you can, to try to buoy yourself up

and that's a stupid way to play scum. some people just don't get it though

and when you flip scum that makes mala like 50% more likely to be town

and if you flip town then it's like 90% mala/mastin with a 10% or so chance that it's LS.

no chance at all that it's loran.

so, supposing you flip town, who do you want us to vote tomorrow, mastin, mala, or LS?

[penguin_alien]

Malakittens, based on #1695.

The tl;dr version of that post is that your slot isn't scum based on MR confirmation timing, Lastsurvivor should have been included in the guille2015 bus if scum with day chat, and there's nothing linking Loranthaceae to Malakittens or mastin2, and there's direct indication from the Lastsurvivor wagon on Day Two that he and mastin2 aren't paired. So take that opinion for what it's worth given how I got to that conclusion.

Look, I'm not 'blaming' CTD for my not voting prior to this. He made the reasonable request that we wait to vote to avoid the day ending prematurely, given that the theme of the game has been quickhammering, since this will almost certainly be his last chance to give his input. I'll grant that I haven't been able to talk my way out of things all that well as caught scum in my two games as Mafia, but trying to say that confirmed town is scummy? Incorrect, yes, susceptible to people agreeing with him/saying what he wants to hear, yes (with pre-emptive apologies to mastin2 if he's town who really did rethink his stances) (but that's not my read at present).

Malakittens doesn't read like the town player she's been in my past games with her. She says she grew weary of defending herself, hence the apathy, but my vote counts through Day Two in post 1315 never show her wagon as bigger than half of what's needed to lynch. Yes, it's irritating to be thought scum when one is town, but the town response to that is to address the arguments and keep scum-hunting. GreyICE has been gone for weeks. From a personal perspective, her about face on her interpretation of my vote for guille2015 at the start of Day Two doesn't ring true.

Is there anything else you'd like my input on to refer back to when I'm posthumous confirmed town?

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm going to have a very busy Easter weekend and will only be able to phone post if at all.

PA's "if" slip is damning. Sure I can see it being an innocent mistake if she's in this mindset:

CTD, I would ask you to share the info on how GreyICE found Junpei to be the MR to clear that up and who you think scum are

if you're wrong about me

before the end of the phase.

On account of you are

.

But that wasn't her knee-jerk explanation when she was called out now was it?

Apart from that she is scum for:
- tone of her QT and lacking paraphrase
- strong possibility of a guille-bus
- inconsistent and illogical from a town-PoV behavior towards Medhi (particularly when what she said in her QT is taken into account)
- calculated voting and suspicious behavior towards Adam/AP on D2
- bad pushes outside of guille
- her entire conduct today (complete lack of pro-town drive, using my behavior as an excuse for her inaction, being intimidated by my Loran-bluff)
- making sense as scumbuddy in most scenarios

She has addressed some of these points when questioned, but her answers didn't satisfy me at all.

The reasons she's presented today for why she's town are pretty laughable:

I listened to a reasoanable argument to move to voting guille2015 Day One where I could have justified keeping my vote.

Actually not how I remember it. At the time, she took offense with guille ignoring a question from her and voted him "until [she] gets an answer". Guille was asking to be bussed, he

was

bussed, so her being on the wagon hardly serves to indicate town alignment, particularly when her vote looks like a bus (allowing for the vote to be withdrawn if he answers her question).

I've explained where it would have been easy for scum-me to hammer AngryPidgeon post-page 42 and didn't.

Another thing that does not indicate town alignment in the least. There were competing town wagons, she was

on

a town wagon, giving zero scum-motivation to stick her neck out by hammering. Her behavior on D2 is perfectly in line with her being scum.

I opted to listen to what you had to say about qwints on Day Three when I had ample opportunity to hammer again.

Same argument here. It's worth pointing out that while she wasn't on the eventual lynch, she helped build the wagon on qwints and took her vote off simply to allow UN to catch up. For all intents and purposes, she shares responsibility for the lynch.

This is an open and shut case. Please lynch her.

-------------

In the unlikely event that she's town, I'd take a hard look at UN (disregarding the GI-Junpei connection) and look into possible LS-pairs before lynching Mala.

That's pretty much all I have left to say today. Godspeed tomorrow.

[UberNinja]

re: VCA:

I'm assuming for this that GreyICE-UberNinja is town based on GreyICE knowing who the MR was from Day One on with Junpei-Nachomamma8 only getting NK'd Night Three. As I said earlier, I could see waiting one night to take down the MR, but waiting two nights doesn't track. So I'm assuming all votes that GreyICE and UberNinja made are town.

If we interpret the guille2015 as mastin2 bussing, and take into account that scum have day chat, such a move Day One should be optimized for both mastin2 and the other scum to get credit. That Lastsurvivor completely missed the boat on that vote implies to me that he isn't scum. The way the wagon went down knowing that bussing had to have been in play merits more than just the null read you propose, CrashTextDummie. That reduces the scum pool to mastin2, Malakittens, and Loranthaceae.

Day Two has mastin2 and Loranthaceae in rock-solid agreement on the Lastsurvivor wagon. To the point where mastin2's reasons for joining are Loranthaceae's arguments. It doesn't feel likely that they'd both go after a target with one propping up the other's case. mastin2 and Malakittens manage to stay on different wagons the whole day. This can be seen more clearly in the breakdown of where the votes stood every two days here.

By Day Three, both mastin2 and Malakittens (and Loranthaceae) end up on the qwints wagon. Given that mastin2 found out who the MR was that day, and the MR was the only other wagon being floated with any momentum behind it, it stands to reason that scum would rather be together on a town lynch than leave one of them as having targeted the MR. That the MR was supporting the wagon they were on only helps.

I don't see anything that points away from a Loranthaceae-Malakittens scum team per se, but given how much Loranthaceae has jumped around in his voting it's not altogether surprising. Based on the VCA and MR knowledge information, I'd rank scum team likelihoods as Malakittens-mastin2, Malakittens-Loranthaceae, and mastin2-Loranthaceae, with the last of these far behind. Which puts my preferred lynch order as Malakittens, mastin2, Loranthaceae.

I will note that to expand on CrashTextDummie's thoughts on my activity in the AngryPidgeon vs. qwints wagon, let's suppose a mastin2-me scum team. So here I apparently have all the groundwork laid to jump on town-AngryPidgeon. It's the end of page 42, my vote is free, and I don't capitalize on the chance to hammer town? Instead I go jump on a wagon with my scum buddy? Not so much. More to the point, my 'calculation' here was that Nachomamma8 was pushing a lynch on AngryPidgeon with no decent arguments and my two towniest reads, mastin2 and Jal, were on the other wagon. Coupled with my doubts about Mehdi2277, it's not a hard choice.

And yes, I hopped off the qwints wagon. Although I do ask, if Malakittens and I were scum together with day chat ability, what good does it do to implicate both of us in the wagon? If we wanted to stir it up, as Malakittens did in joining, why not have me 'get impatient with the lack of new arguments being made' and jump back on to declare it L-1? Malakittens continues her apathy, I'm the only one tarred with the brush of the townie lynch, and the law of averages means that Loranthaceae's vote ends up hammering at some point.

UberNinja, I do think that proposing a compromise lynch when CTD hasn't rejected your first choice is less than rigorous.

okay second time reading through this post it sounds a lot better

Unvote

CTD I know this sounds crazy

but we have to lynch Mala first

it's the only way i'll be able to feel right about what's happening

penguin_alien is actually trying and putting in effort and doing exactly what i'd expect town to do in her circumstance, "if" slip be damned, and opportunistic vote on mala be damned.

and look at what mala is doing
that's right, pretty much fucking nothing