Mini 1427 - Slenderman Mafia - Game Over

[Yates]

Also, do you know whether you got shot last night?

I don't know if I got shot last night. I just assumed it. Ree has also claimed he may have been a target last night. So this matter is disputable.

[serrapaladin]

Wait, Ree, what indication do you have you might have been shot?

This game...

[Aj The Epic]

That's the issue, we've got THREE potential BP of some sort. How the fuck does this factor well?

[Yates]

GTFO! The plot thickens...

[Mr_Ree]

Well I guess I'd be fine with a no lynch if we had to, but I'd personally like a HumanDestroyer lynch. My favourite is revisting his ISO, seeing the town reads on me, the scum reads on all the guys who have flipped town, and the levy obv town. Then there was the massive 180 with levy being auto lynch and me being obvscum.

Also he's been sitting, twiddling his thumbs and waiting for me to get lynched. Does anyone actually have a town read on him?

Keep in mind, scum would have no way of knowing that Levi was the traitor. At most, they would just be informed that there is a traitor.

I'm not trying to poke holes in your theories but you need to factor that in. In early game, scum would have thought he was just an easy townie lynch, presumably, after he claimed as recruitable, scum would have tried to keep him alive, which is why you have a wagon on you right now.

What people aren't considering is that scum could have thrown him under the bus when they realized he was going down, which is where you find the trio that safety had town reads on. The same trio who didn't vote safety.

Since bussing is a possibility, HD does fit the bill. He seems like the type who would throw someone to the wolves to save himself. Even still, there is evidence to support my trio theory. Not that I think they are all scum, nor do I hold any illusions that both scum would be contained to those three players. I'm basing it on the fact that safety wouldn't put both his partners in his "could be scum" pile. There was no evidence to support bussing. Everyone he said he wanted lynched flipped town, as shown by my earlier posts. When you've eliminated the most plausible explanations, the only answers that remain must be the correct answers. Those three are the most plausible. Yates is the cop, that leaves AJ and SP.

I'd prefer to lynch within those two and investigate the other but, failing that, the no lynch and investigate route sounds very appealing. HD would be a distant 3rd option for me. Yes, I did read his ISO. I lol'd at all the times he fos'd me for trying to save fuzzy. He didn't even give it up after the flip, saying something like 'Ree needs to eat rope for white knighting fuzzy'. So yeah, I'm not a huge fan either.

[Mr_Ree]

Im not bullet proof. Reread that post again. The investigative aspect has been stripped from my role but that actually make me more useful and supports Yates' cop role.

Very interested to hear AJ's gamebreaking info.

SP fell into the trap by speaking out AGAINST the no lynch and suggesting a mass claim. I considered that earlier but scrapped it when I realized it hurt town more than it helped.

[Mr_Ree]

Eeveryone WAS online...

[Yates]

The investigative aspect has been stripped from my role but that actually make me more useful and supports Yates' cop role.

What was the "investigative aspect" of your role? If you can somehow confirm my role that would be pretty useful right about now for anyone having lingering doubts.

If you are an x-shot tracker/watcher/voyeur, for example, that tracked/watched/voyeured me to MM last night? That would be stellar.

[serrapaladin]

SP fell into the trap by speaking out AGAINST the no lynch and suggesting a mass claim

Do tell? I don't think a No Lynch is a good idea, as it most likely just takes us to MyLo, where again a No Lynch is the best course of action. We get one more (and most likely only one more, unless town is vastly OP) investigation anyways, so we might as well lynch today and hope for the best.

These theme games are meant to be balanced, right? If that's the case, I'm seeing way too many pro-town roles for everyone to be honest, hence my suggestion that a massclaim may lift some confusion.

Safety was an anti-scum PR and Levi knowing the identity of one scum turned out to be pro-town. A BP cop is a great pro-town role, and we still have softclaims floating around.

[Mr_Ree]

Sorry Yates, can't say I'm any of those. I can neither confirm nor deny your role. All I will say at this point is that your role makes sense.

SP, you are forgetting the protection role. Combine that with Yates' BP and we can guarantee 2 more investigations. It won't be Mylo tomorrow even with a night kill 5:2 -> 4:2. If we lynch wrong today, we are into Mylo with a nightkill 5:2 -> 3:2

Now, what does a massclaim do for us? It reveals all our PRs and their abilities and allows scum to make a solid plan knowing who to target to cripple town. With 2 scum left, tell me how a massclaim makes ANY sense.

[serrapaladin]

There are 7 alive.

If scum kills tonight there will be 6 alive.

2 scum of 6 alive is MyLo.

2 scum of 5 alive is LyLo.

MyLo means if we mislynch, we lose, which is almost as bad as LyLo. I refuse to believe that we have a cop that can stay alive for two nights after claiming in a game with 11 players.

[Mr_Ree]

Wait, yes it does mean mylo. It still leaves us in a better position.

[serrapaladin]

Look, I SERIOUSLY doubt Yates can get another two investigations. If he can't we might as well go for a lynch today.

The two alternatives are:

Lynch - Night Kill - Lynch
or
No Lynch - Night Kill - No Lynch - Night Kill - Lynch

I much prefer the first, as it gives us two chances at getting the lynch right, and I don't think cop-Yates will be able to get two more investigations.

[Yates]

I am squarely on the fence on this one. Logically, Serra raises a valid argument. If we no lynch today, you guys will probably no lynch tomorrow. There's no way scum leave me alive unless we leave open the possibility of there being a Doc this brings me right back to what I said in post 1521. I would rather NOT have claims today if we are no lynching since - you know - we aren't lynching thus the information doesn't help us.

[Mr_Ree]

Who is saying that I'm relying solely on Yates?

Even if i was, with a protector role and a Bullet proof Yates, what's stopping him from getting two investigations?

We can
A) lynch someone, learn from their flip, investigate someone and learn from the nk flip to arrive at lylo - that's 3 confirmed, with 2 of those being dead
Or
B) no lynch, learn from the nk result (or block it completely) investigate someone, if they are town, no lynch again with another investigation to arrive at lylo. That's 4 confirmed with 2 dead.

So what would you prefer? 3 people or 4 people confirmed going into Mylo?

[Ms Marangal]

who's saying they won't just kill the confirmed town Ree? why would scum let conf. town live?

[Lord Mhork]

This no lymch idea is really, really bad, you guys. I

highly

doubt this game can be broken by a simple follow the cop strategy and we shouldn't throw out a lynch in a mad hope it will be. We should lynch one of AJ or human destroyer (both common 'meh' reads in the town) and tonight Yates should investigate from a pool or the remaining dude, Serra, and me. Extra information if we somehow manage to stop the kill, and, failing that, we go into tomorrow with lots of information!

PEdit:
That too. No lynch is just a bad idea in general.

[Ms Marangal]

Vote HD

between HD and Aj, I would much prefer HD. he just seems more anti-town in comparison to Aj

[Mr_Ree]

Look, I'm not going to force it, it was just a suggestion to get people talking. It's not a bad idea, we're not in an ideal situation at the moment. The tunnelling over the last few days hurt us just as much as it helped. If the only thing my suggestions do is get people talking and thinking, mission accomplished. I haven't seen a solid case that I can actually get behind and believe in all game.

@Ms. M and Mhork, do you put any faith in my analysis of safety's reads? Is there a flaw that I perhaps didn't consider? HD was sitting on the scummy side of safety's reads.

Hey, I find HD just as scummy but he doesn't fit the profile.

Too tired to think. Need to go over a few things, but first, bed.

[Ms Marangal]

Ree, I like your analysis on Ree and his reads, however that is the only time he ever mentions HD, L hasn't said anything period as far as I remember and Safety could have easily been purposefully keeping his distance from his scum buddy, make it look like they weren't partners anyway. he didn't go into much detail into HD so to me, it easily fits the scumbussing bill.

and he could have also stated that he was leaning town on Yates and Aj in the hopes that he could indirectly frame them later on when he died, should he die.

[Ms Marangal]

I mean analysis on Safety

[serrapaladin]

Has anyone here ever played with Safety? Is he the bussing type? I'll meta him when I have time, but independent of that I find HD the best lynch.

[Human Destroyer]

I've already showed you that the case on me is literal shit.

So...try again. Try to find something

actually

scummy about me.

Oh, that's right, you can't!

[Yates]

L hasn't said anything period as far as I remember

Her last post was Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:31 am so it's probably safe to assume she isn't even aware of this game.

Has anyone here ever played with Safety?

Nope. I did some QUICK digging [since he's relatively new] for his scum games. HD was his scum buddy for a day in Newbie 1308 - Vanishing Act. So he may have some insight. Also Mhork is currently in Monopoly with him so he can't say squat.

Here's a quote from his scum QT in "ehobanowoof"

I think personally, we should try and knock off the most townie looking players

He mostly ignores his scum buddies in Bubble Tape [but was only in for 6 posts before being replaced]. Here's his only reference to a scum buddy:

-zipperflesh: why was he sheeping thor in the first place and now defending/agreeing with him in the same arguments? Is there a meta-clique here or is it a game strategy? It doesn't seem smart for maf to band together so obviously so early on but then everyone seems to be very experienced so is it a case of wifom?

In Vanishing Act [with HD as a buddy] he mostly ignored his scum buddy until:

VOTE: Human Destroyer

HD was tied with Telo at two votes at the time and SD's vote put HD at L-2. So +1 for bus?

In Royal Family he mostly ignores scum buddy T-Squiggs:

Do people remember T-Squiggs? Apart from being from Princetown giving you vote immunity, why is he town? Not really getting any town vibes in this game, apart from Dan.

That was a few posts before he was lynched. So, distancing post for his buddy? Though he also threw in a Town read on Town Dan for added wifom.

Short version: meta is inconsistent/inconclusive. I obviously didn't read these games and just checked for references to buddies in ISO so please do not take the above as gospel.

[Human Destroyer]

HD was his scum buddy for a day in Newbie 1308 - Vanishing Act. So he may have some insight.

Sadly, not really.

I don't remember enough from that game (except that I won and that Safety was replaced by someone that was

really

bad) to make a conclusive statement about how he takes on his scumbuddies; I remember him bussing me pretty hard D1 though.