In post 1438, Nachomamma8 wrote:
Yes, but the problem is not specific scum players being too good at all.
In post 1422, Llamarble wrote:If the best players in a game are all town, there should be enough scumbags in the not-incredibly-hard-to-read pile that the army of beastly town-players ought to be able to reach some reads with some confidence.
Like who?
In post 1422, Llamarble wrote:Instead the scum are good enough / the town is ungood enough that most of the towniest players have struggled getting reads, leading to deadline wagons.
I see CES being scum as the best explanation of this situation, and he also works by process of elimination and the fact that I simply can see his posts coming from scum.
But why is CES the best explanation of the situation? Him being scum doesn't mean that his partners are impossible to catch.
For something like the fifth time:
There are plenty of players who aren't that difficult to read correctly.
Empire, Tierce, Nacho and myself all have reputations for strong town games and weaker scum games.
I don't think DV / Shadoweh / Benmage / various others have what it takes to fool me and Vi and CES and TET and so on.
If you remove CES from the awesome townies pile and add him to the hard-to-find scum pile with the bonus that because of how good he is he can influence the lynch away from buddies, the odds of us mislynching twice increase a lot. Since P(mislynching twice with CES scum) is substantially greater than P(mislynching twice with CES town), CES is more likely to be scum by Bayes rule. In addition, process of elimination has narrowed the pool to him and a few others. And his own posting simply works from scum. And the game's events (ESPECIALLY the wagon compositions), when read assuming CES is scum, make a lot more sense than they do with him as town (though substituting Shadowehscum for him would account for some of this).
This is sufficient for me to lynch CES today. If he flips town I will be very disappointed.
Shadoweh being scum is the best alternative to CES being scum, but I don't think Shadoweh is scum.
Nacho is the only lynch other than CES I would be really tempted by for today.
I let OMGUS keep me from lynching CESscum in Revolution mafia though, and I am not interested in repeating that, so Nacho goes second.
In post 1432, Tammy wrote:I don't see how you're viewing it that way. Day one had a significant early wagon on llamarble and a decent wagon on ctd. The main competing wagons then formed on n and pa with the ultimate choice being between them. In fact those two wagons competed for almost three days before the lynch was finalized hours before deadline. You got what you wanted that day as you fought to keep n alive instead of pa; the majority of your day one play was defense of n. There was no deadline panic to that lynch at all, and I'm surprised you're now characterizing it that way.
N was a very strong townread, yes. PA was a lesser townread. You're right in that deadline panic isn't the best way to describe Day 1, but the deadline played a significant part in the lynch. I don't know if you noticed or not, but penguin got lynched only after the entirety of the ctd wagon came over. A few people from that wagon (Johhog, myself, Benmage) came over to the penguin wagon because our respective lynches weren't going through. So it's not a surprise that the day ended in a mislynch and I don't see why CES had any part in that happening.
Normal things like people debating and compromising before the deadline happened. Therefore it isn't any surprise that the day ended in a mislynch.
Wat. As has been your usual this game the premise does not imply the conclusion.
In post 1432, Tammy wrote:Day two was hardly a deadline panic either. If there was a deadline panic, we would have lynched shadoweh who was at l-1 at deadline and had claimed vanilla. She should have been the lynch yesterday. That lynch was a comedy of errors beginning when ut went weeeeee let's see if we can do something else in 24 hours for whimsy and ended in the clusterfuck that ended with his lynch. There was no deadline panic there either. Okay bn could have held off on the hammer, but ut also obviously wasn't actually interested in discussion or he would have, you know, just answered some of the questions I had earlier.
If there wasn't a deadline, that lynch wouldn't have escalated as quickly as it did at all.
We seriously considered at least 4 lynches late d2 and put enough votes on them to make them serious possibilities, and earlier D2 there was a Vi wagon.
Calling late D2 a comedy of errors is simply inaccurate; a lot of the scumhunting in this game happened during that time.
We got it wrong, but chalking that up to the fact that a lot occurred in a short time is unsound.
In post 1432, Tammy wrote:Is this why you're voting llamarble? Because he's trying to find a reason for why we've mislynched instead of oversimplifying it as deadline panic? There are clear reasons the wagons hve shifted so far.
I'm voting Llamarble because there's a clear reason why we're mislynching and it sure as hell isn't CES.
Do you believe otherwise?
Yes
I put votes on CES, Shadoweh, UT, and Benmage yesterday all with expectation of lynch.
I helped lynch PA instead of N D1, but so did you, and I was also part of the CTD wagon.
So Nacho unless you think CES Shadoweh and Benmage are all town, which if you buy into TET + Zach leaves you with a me / OGML / DV scumteam, I tried to lynch scum at least once late D2.
I have also been one of the more energetic drivers of things-happening in this game, and if you seriously can look at my posting and not see somebody trying to figure out the game / make town win, there is something wrong with you. My play surrounding my wagon D1 was also pretty darn town. And if anybody were to actually want to lynch me I can go back and point out a number of things I've said that would require my scumplay here to be :awesome:. It's okay though; you aren't dumb, you're scum and going to die tomorrow after CES.
