Open 479: White Flag (Game Over)


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Post Post #800 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 3:49 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

havingfitz,

1.)
As I stated early in the game, I was keeping my Townreads (DCLXVI and Huntress) close to my chest, which is how I think one ought to play early in a mountainous game. Having Townreads only to have them nightkilled because there is a general consensus that a certain player is Town does us no good (and I in fact specifically asked players to specifically stop calling me Town for similar reasons). The fact that I thought DCLXVI was Town resonates through my treatment of DCLXVI over the course of the game, as well as my critical eye towards players who were attacking DCLXVI. I may not have been very open with my Huntress Townread (and there likely isn't much evidence of it in my posts, since I probably felt very little desire to defend her as she was rarely attacked), but that does not change the fact that
I
know I had a Townread on her on Days One and Two.

The fact that I cannot easily describe why I think DCLXVI is not really a point against me. There are certainly plenty of reasons one might attack DCLXVI; to be blunt, his posts are not very good on the whole. He nevertheless
reads
like he is posting from a Town mindse. As I have tried to explain before, his indignation / bold words / exaggerations of others' play -- while highly annoying -- do not seem to me to be done with a scum motive. His attack on LlamaFluff in particular reads as Town because he has pursued it so heavily despite it not gaining much traction, and despite the fact that I think his case is very overstated, I can (on some level at least) understand what led him to his frame of mind.

2.)
Please explain to me how my
wanting
to talk about the nightkills when you
agree
they are odd is a point against me? If they are odd, it is presumably for a reason. I think in general scum vastly prefer having nightkills ignored and often suggest it is "WIFOM" to analyze them. But from experience I know that nightkills are often rather indicative of who is scum, and often make a good deal of sense in hindsight. So if it possible to instead use foresight, I would prefer to do it. In this case my own efforts were not very fruitful, which is why I have been urging others to look into them to see if they can connect the dots.

3.)
I don't understand your point about my meta discussion with mikeburnfire. My first point was indeed that it has been many years since Simon Mafia. My second point was that even I
assumed
his meta read on me was accurate and applicable, he claimed I was scummy in
this
game because my play was completely different than a past game I was
scum
in. So either way you look at it (whether you accept meta arguments or you don't), mikeburnfire's argument against me did not make sense.

4.)
And finally, I am a realistic player. When you voted for DCLXVI in LyLo, that was pretty much a giant flag saying "after DCLXVI crossvotes me, the rest of you will have no choice but to choose between us because every vote is not for either of us increases the chances of a Townsperson being quicklynched." It is not like I have never been in an endgame before -- they almost always devolve to two players voting each other and then one of them being lynched.

I, however, was not very pleased with the crossvote situation. The chances that the two of you are both Town are too high in my mind for comfort. And so when Jake from State Farm essentially came into the game 100% sure DCLXVI was scum before actually reading most of the living players in the game, I was more than happy to push the game into a direction, and potentially defuse the obvious impending crossvote dichotomy.

I am rather confident based on the game that DCLXVI has been a continual contender for being mislynched (i.e., lynchbait), and this would likely be a prevalent topic of discussion amongst the scumteam. And so having somebody (Jake from the State Farm) replacing in and immediately attacking the most likely mislynch without even fully reading suggests a very particular agenda. Hence my vote.
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Post Post #801 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 3:54 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

In post 796, LlamaFluff wrote:
The two of you voting eachother
and the way that Thor played into it
is the core part.
In post 799, LlamaFluff wrote:He had voted you, which ment both of you were probably not town (not to mention meaning what it would leave).
The ensuing crossvote basically affirmed that thought.
My statement is exactly that, him voting you made it likely one of you were scum. Subsequent actions reiterated that assumption, and as I have said quite a bit its the way that Thor and fitz have played since that point which makes it most likely which even starts with 692 where Thor tries to guide your response vote my direction instead of to fitz.
I see a huge contradiction here.

In the first post. You say that the crossvote was the reason for your change of views.

I pointed out then that the crossvote did not happen before that post.

The crossvote then changes from being the "core part" of your read change to something that just "basically affirmed that thought"

I'm not liking this at all.
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Post Post #802 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 3:58 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

PJ, your thoughts on lama?
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Post Post #803 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:12 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

In post 802, DCLXVI wrote:PJ, your thoughts on lama?
Potential scum. I have not been a fan of his "heels-dug-in" attitude with you over the course of the game, but at the same time it is easy to see him doing that as Town given that you have been hounding him for so long. I also still have lingering suspicions about his defense of mikeburnfire, even though my attempt to meta him a month ago or so reminded me that he actually does defend players fairly often, and often for reasons I don't necessarily agree with. What I
do
actively like about his play was his proactiveness on Day One in particular (asking pointed questions, as well as constantly alerting us about the deadline when we may have otherwise failed to lynch at all, which would have put us at a very bad disadvantage).

Largely, his alignment in my eyes is a contingent alignment. Earlier in the game I was pretty dead-set on mikeburnfire-scum meant LlamaFluff-scum. At this point in the game I can most easily see him with Huntress or Jake from State Farm (largely because of his noninteraction yet somehow Townread on Mert). That said, I do have
trouble
seeing him paired with a few players (you and havingfitz in particular), so his alignment is one I would rather decide after seeing a scumflip.
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Post Post #804 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:20 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

pj...I just made three recent posts about llama, and then I asked you for you opinion of him. Don't you think I may have wanted you to comment about the recent accusation of lying that I made about him?
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Post Post #805 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:28 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

I actually purposefully held off because I did not want to presume to answer for LlamaFluff.

But your accusation of lying is not persuasive.

As soon as havingfitz voted for you, the game was in a crossvote situation whether your vote was physically on havingfitz or not. This is because unless other players actively pushed elsewhere or the two of you somehow completely changed your minds about each other, the game at that point was going to leave everybody with basically two options for their vote: you or havingfitz. LlamaFluff's concerns about Thor665 trying to see if he could alter the dichotomy to go somewhere else (as I understand it, "DCLXVI v LlamaFluff") is a legitimate concern; and the fact that Thor665 did not seem alarmed that the dichotomy was instead "DCLXVI v havingfitz" indeed suggests (from LlamaFluff's standpoint) that Thor665 is partnered with either you or havingfitz, and therefore would prefer the dichotomy such that two Townspeople ("LlamaFluff v Whoever Thor665 is not partnered with") would be voting each other.
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Post Post #806 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:45 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Vote: Llamafluff


Maybe Jake tomorrow - I'm too tired to bother with his gak.
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Post Post #807 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:48 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Oh, who am I kidding?
In post 772, Jake from State Farm wrote:1. what are you 2? I didn't start anything
2. my question was about explain to me dcl town, examples of pro town play
3. I didn't mis-rep anything, if it wasn't for me town lost that game. scum even set it up so I could hammer wrong, but I took the time to figure things out. why are YOU mis-repping? oh yeah, cause you are a conceited sob
4. I haven't seen you do anything worthwhile this day phase :shrug:
1. Well...you did, but...so what if I am two? Is that the way you're showing you're the more mature of us? Mission accomplished.
2. Which I did...just not in the specific way you wanted. But I certainly addressed it and did provide an example.
3. You did mis-rep the Klick/Cyber situation with me pretty gruesomely - also, what about you did I misrep? Example please or scumclaim.
4. Yeah, but you have a very skewed perception of what I'm doing because you want to call it scummy. :shrug:
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Post Post #808 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:50 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

pj...if the crossvote meant there were only two choices, why have so many other players been voted instead of either me or fitz?
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Post Post #809 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:58 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

In post 808, DCLXVI wrote:pj...if the crossvote meant there were only two choices, why have so many other players been voted instead of either me or fitz?
It is becoming increasingly difficult to bite my tongue with you.

The fact that this game is an exception does not disprove general wisdom. When two players are digging into each in LyLo and one votes the other, what happens next (which in fact
did
happen next) is rather foregone conclusion. LlamaFluff's obvious concern was that Thor665 was trying to change the dynamic from "havingfitz v DCLXVI" to "DCLXVI v LlamaFluff." If Thor665 is scum, that heavily implies Thor665 would be scum with havingfitz and is trying to generate a "town v town" crossvote instead of a "town v scum" crossvote. I fail to see how this is not perfectly obvious, and that based on this, LlamaFluff would be incited into voting either havingfitz or Thor665.
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Post Post #810 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:12 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

@llama and pj

your reads on huntress
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Post Post #811 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:18 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

After thinking things through, what bothers me is that I do think PJ and llama's point about thor seems valid, even with llama's inconsistency with the crossvote.

Fitzs jump onto llama once I finally start going after him is also looking really opportunistic. In case nobody noticed, I had previously made several statements implying that I was not as certain of my llama scumread. So for him to wait and then jump on right when it looked like I had finally for sure decided llama was scum is pretty bad.
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Post Post #812 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:28 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

In post 733, havingfitz wrote:FMPOV DCL is pretty much confirmed scum. If we were both town....scum would have had ample opportunity to end the game with all three scum finishing DCL or I off.
This was a bad post on tuesday, but as things are progressing and its now been 48 hours since this post I am really wondering why there hasn't been a substantial wagon on somebody.

current unofficial votecount:

Fitz: llamafluff
PJ:Jake
Jake:PJ
llamafluff: thor
DCL: fitz

Huntress expressed interest in voting either jake or llama
The person I have the least qualms about voting right now is fitz. IDFK what alignment llama is right now.

Anyone want to take a shot at trying to explain this?
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Post Post #813 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:31 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

In post 810, DCLXVI wrote:@llama and pj

your reads on huntress
Null. Another player whose alignment is highly contingent.

While I still
quite
liked her early play (it seemed legitimately aggressive and proactive, in a good way), it is pretty much ChannelDelibird that made me drop having Huntress as a Townread. From a skeptical point of view, I
can
read Huntress as being savvy scum pushing contradictions rather than looking for the underlying reasons a player might
make
what appears to be a contradiction. In other words, I can see how it is possible she has been attacking the written word instead of the motive.
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Post Post #814 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:42 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

In post 670, Thor665 wrote:Kind of want to lynch Llama or Jake.
In post 731, Huntress wrote:At the moment I'm thinking of voting either Llama or Jake today,
Why is thor scummy for saying this but not huntress?
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Post Post #815 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:50 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

In post 670, Thor665 wrote:Kind of want to lynch Llama or Jake.

@DCL what are you thinking?
In post 714, Thor665 wrote:Because we had a lynch, a flip, and a kill and another flip, giving me more information than I had yesterday.
And I do still suspect you - I'm just thinking Llama/Jake is a better lynch zone right now.
Notice how the second post doesn't actually explain his read changes.

@Thor, what information did you gain from the flips that directed you toward a jake/llama vote choice over your primary day 3 suspect of fitz?
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Post Post #816 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:50 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

@Fitz, who would you be voting if you were not voting me?
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Post Post #817 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:52 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

Sorry for triple post but...I'm just not getting why thor would come in and hardcore bus his buddy. I can't see both thor and fitz as town and I don't see how scumthor would not have voted townfitz to start off the day. I can't see them as partners.
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Post Post #818 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:55 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

I swear this is my last post before someone else comes and chimes in.

Scum thor & scum fitz: doesn't work ^^^
Scum thor & town fitz: doesn't work ^^^
Town thor & town fitz: why did neither my wagon nor fitzs build up?
town thor & scum fitz: works, but doesn't explain why thor is not voting fitz
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Post Post #819 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 6:38 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

Sorry, but I had to post this.
In post 645, havingfitz wrote:Nice scum banter there between posts 642 and 644. :)
In post 642, Thor665 wrote:If you vote Fitz then the wagons are tied.
There are 18 hours and change left.
In post 643, Thor665 wrote:I mean, I know a lot of that will be Huntress trying to avoid making a case on Rach so as to avoid having to admit there isn't a case...but still.
In post 644, DCLXVI wrote:wait you're right...the mod missed my vote on fitz which confused me..

vote:fitz


Sorry fixed.
Ok, yeah, look at the votecount on that pate. Me thor and fitz are all voting RM. I
In post 640, greygnarl wrote:
VOTECOUNTDCLXVI: LlamaFluff, Mert
RachMarie: havingfitz, Huntress, petroleumjelly
ChannelDelibird:
Thor665:
LlamaFLuff:
havingfitz: RachMarie, Thor665, DCLXVI
Mert:
petroleumjelly:
Huntress: ChannelDelibird
Not Voting:

So basically the wagons between fitz and RM were even. The votecount was incorrect and I got confused and thor corrected me, trying to direct me to fitz. (points strongly towards them NOT being buddies.)

tldr;
I'm just really effing confused right now. I'm hoping that sleep will help.
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Post Post #820 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 6:47 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 811, DCLXVI wrote:After thinking things through, what bothers me is that I do think PJ and llama's point about thor seems valid, even with llama's inconsistency with the crossvote.
Except that it isn't a good point.
In post 815, DCLXVI wrote:@Thor, what information did you gain from the flips that directed you toward a jake/llama vote choice over your primary day 3 suspect of fitz?
Did you see my V/CA?
Y'know, the one that didn't exactly scream fitz=scum?
The one that did put Mert and Llama in a lot of bad places?
The one the two additional flips helped fill out?

That would be what changed.
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Post Post #821 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 6:48 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 819, DCLXVI wrote:So basically the wagons between fitz and RM were even. The votecount was incorrect and I got confused and thor corrected me, trying to direct me to fitz. (points strongly towards them NOT being buddies.)
Remember when you said Llama's point was good?

Yeah...
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Post Post #822 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 6:49 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

In post 819, DCLXVI wrote:So basically the wagons between fitz and RM were even. The votecount was incorrect and I got confused and thor corrected me, trying to direct me to fitz. (points strongly towards them NOT being buddies.)
At that point though both me and CDB (only players not being replaced) had fairly clearly declared intention to vote RM though. Gamble-ish but depending on who is scum #3 that's a very good small bus type move to make, notice again, fitz gets a vote the next day and Thor doesn't even seem to register it.

Unless fitz is suddenly his #3 scumpick or something... yeah.
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Post Post #823 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 6:55 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Yeah, it's almost as though I didn't call him a scumread today prior to him being voted...oh, wait...
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Post Post #824 (ISO) » Thu May 09, 2013 11:12 pm

Post by Jake from State Farm »

In post 807, Thor665 wrote:1. Well...you did, but...so what if I am two? Is that the way you're showing you're the more mature of us? Mission accomplished.
2. Which I did...just not in the specific way you wanted. But I certainly addressed it and did provide an example.
3. You did mis-rep the Klick/Cyber situation with me pretty gruesomely - also, what about you did I misrep? Example please or scumclaim.
4. Yeah, but you have a very skewed perception of what I'm doing because you want to call it scummy. :shrug:
1. whatever
2. no you didn't
3. All I said is you never mentioned klick, that was true and wasn't a misrep. I forgot about cyber, but that doesn't disprove my original statement. If you look at the beginning of that game I pretty much named 3 of the 4 scum but whatever, you and I will never see eye to eye because of 4
4. you are a conceited person who refuses to believe anything you do is scummy, admit your own faults, I certainly do. You have been scummy this game, deal with it.
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