NY 165: A Large Normal (Game Over!)

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Ugggghhhhh I can't right now for nacho

For mastin, he reacts a LOT stronger to people voting him than he has

As part of a hydra? I react way less strongly to votes as part of a hydra. It's a division of labor sort of thing. I think mastin sees himself as the minority partner in the Calcifer enterprise. I'm focusing mostly on reading Nacho.

Nacho reaches out as town and takes a lot of control

He isn't doing that

I can't make my full case on him right now but thats basically the big idea

[Rift Adrift]

Ugggghhhhh I can't right now for nacho

For mastin, he reacts a LOT stronger to people voting him than he has

As part of a hydra? I react way less strongly to votes as part of a hydra. It's a division of labor sort of thing. I think mastin sees himself as the minority partner in the Calcifer enterprise. I'm focusing mostly on reading Nacho.

Nacho reaches out as town and takes a lot of control

He isn't doing that

I can't make my full case on him right now but thats basically the big idea

Yeah, I know that aspect of his town game is very low key, but it's not so cut and dried.

He often does orchestrate as town, but not always. I have thoughts about why he's not doing it in this game.

[BulbaFenix]

Then why bring it up, especially since Dramonic had claimed mason, which should have influenced your reads?

Isn't this hydra suggesting serene is scum? Shouldn't that effect your read on dramonic?

Dramonic is in the same boat as Serene right now: Untouchable because of mason claim. However, I was not referring to our Dramonic read in this post, I was inquiring about Ank's.

Bulba has a point though. Ank is saying dramonic is "slightly scummy", yet he hardly mentions serene in his entire ISO. Serene is way scummier than dramonic, if you're going to point the finger at one of the masons, it's gonna be serene. Very strange to call dramonic scummy without giving any consideration whatsoever to serene.

vote ankamius

This reeks of opportunism.

Interesting. When I first read that I thought it made sense, like "personally I do not believe the claim". But yeah on 2nd read that's bad.

vote bulbafenix

either or really

Oh, I get it now. I was thinking this too. You can see how that could have been meant the other way, but that is kind of bad.

Can we get a VC in here?

Translation: "Hey, I know what Fenix was really trying to say, but there's this delicious wagon forming that I just can't ignore. Opportunism away!"

bulba's "slip" alone is not enough to warrant lynch, it's easy for him to say he also misread that statement.

Translation: "I know what's really going on, but I need to make something up quick to justify this wagon that I hopped onto."

But today he's come in with an immediate reasonless vote for stevie

Yes, a reasonless vote that I spent most of d1 explaining. The NKs did nothing to throw those reasons into question, hence I voted. Nice misrep, btw.

then said I must be speedlynched if it's it's multiball for being the first to speculate on it, despite the fact it's the assumption most people seem to be working on, serene included.

I really don't see that many people working under the assumption that it's multiball. In fact, more people seem to be considering vig. over multiball, or at least a single scum team over multiball. The fact is, everybody is showing their uncertainty about the setup while hunting. You, however, entered into the thread today with a determination that you KNEW it was multiball. You seemed to want to get in on the spec action early and drum up some town cred for scumhunting, which is more in line with scum motivation, rather than town motivation.

And he wasn't looking good yesterday.

Appeal to Majority never works as an argument.

The kills didn't tell me anything. TIP looked like an obv. vig. kill, and ProHawk was clearly starting to hit his stride at the end of d1, so it may just be a case of scum wanting avoid dealing with a sharp scumhunter. Besides, initial reactions to NKs are classic WIFOM, and scum tend to react to them a lot as a way to look town.

"Prohawk was clearly trying to hit his stride" arrogant phrasing like this is always scum minded. Prohawk was hitting what stride where? How could I, an innocent townie, know he was hitting his stride unless he was starting to latch on to our buddies?

We had ProHawk as a scumread upon replacing in d1 due to the frequency and content of his posts. After engaging with him for awhile, ProHawk started to actually display enough town intent that I was able to get a town read off of him. By the end of the day, he was starting to post a lot more regularly and was actually meaningfully contributing to the scumhunting effort.

We both thought that Serene might be scum yesterday until they claimed. Fenix still thinks they're scum, while I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and look elsewhere for now. I've kept Fenix off of them for the most part since their claim. He pushed me hard on it. When d2 was about to start, he wanted to tango with Serene so bad. I finally consented, but said that we were not going to vote them.

Here's some nice backpedaling. When called out on their scummy tone when interacting with us (I think someone asked "do you not believe their claim?") they go into "Well uhhhh one head thinks they are scum still but the other head got me ot backoff so forgive me if I slip and try to throw mud on them from time to time."

Hydra dissonence is not backpedaling nor is it scummy. Reach harder please.

So Broseidon and Orc are dumb or scum (scum especially if BulbaFenix does flip town).

This needs to be explained.

Bro wins the argument, the argument about that being a slip is now over.

There is a semi-valid point about BulbaFenix not going after Serene today except then they started doing it.

Yeah so basically apologies for my momentary lapse, BulbaFenix are still probably town.

Translation: "Oh, crap. This mislynch wagon is not as solid as I once thought. I need to distance myself from this wagon as much as possible."

Bulbafenix you seem to be distanced from me

And not talking to me despite my efforts against your lynch

I find that interesting

I've just been able to get back and catch up. If you really want to know, I think you are town, because I don't think scum would try to derail a wagon such as ours. You put yourself on the line, which is more in line with town trying to stop what they thought was a bad lynch. Normally I don't interact with someone unless I have a question or I'm responding to them. It's just not part of my nature. If you have a question, though, feel free to ask. In the meantime, I asked a question about Mastin's townplay awhile back that no one has responded to, so if you have an answer regarding that, I'd be more than happy to hear it.

Can someone tell me if this is typical for town Mastin?

Unvote

Vote DOMO

-Bulba

[Rift Adrift]

Meta related thoughts. Meta management is a sort of arms race.

[Cephrir]

Yes, I was obviously gung-ho about that wagon which explains why I wasn't on it, not to mention why I've been against the wagon everywhere but that one post where I started to reconsider. Brilliant deduction, Bulb.

I counted the votes myself when I asked for a VC, not that I could prove this, came up with 5, and proceeded to not vote. Even at my most dubious I still considered my current vote vastly superior.

[Rift Adrift]

In the meantime, I asked a question about Mastin's townplay awhile back that no one has responded to, so if you have an answer regarding that, I'd be more than happy to hear it.

Can someone tell me if this is typical for town Mastin?

-Bulba

^^ snipped to just address this question. Actually thought I had answered this. Must not have hit submit.

town Mastin =/= town Mastin-part-of-Calcifer. He's much more assertive and even arrogant playing alone than when partnering with Nacho. That's where I left off with my meta dive.

I am not sure how much variance there is in his town vs scum play as part of Calcifer. I'll see if I can figure that out.

[Bulbazak]

I was more interested in whether the AtE we saw d1 in regard to Serene was more in line with town Mastin or scum Mastin.

-Bulba

[BulbaFenix]

I was more interested in whether the AtE we saw d1 in regard to Serene was more in line with town Mastin or scum Mastin.

-Bulba

I need to stop doing this...

[Rift Adrift]

That's what I was looking for. I've played one game with Mastin prior to this one, and he was scum. He didn't make any sort of appeal like that to another player who was reading him as scum. I didn't run across anything like that reading old games. I think it's maybe something directly related to someone he presumed to be part of Serene.

[Serene]

So a richly detailed meta analysis, using the most up-to-date numerical methods and a well-thought-out design has demonstrated that the combined Mastin/Nacho hydra Calcifer is town.

Facts are facts, I must tip my hat and bow to science.

UNLYNCHABLE, yes, and for cause! Calcifer is our official unlynchable townie. He's an invaluable asset to the town.

[BulbaFenix]

I was more interested in whether the AtE we saw d1 in regard to Serene was more in line with town Mastin or scum Mastin.

-Bulba

I need to stop doing this...

Only took me once, I don't know what your problem is

So calcifer is the hardest to lynch scum read that you have

Shouldn't we sort of not let that kind of scum reach endgame

I'll let you use your phenomenal powers of persuasion and non-garbage play and outstandingly accurate reads to summon a Calcifer wagon. Show me how it's done, teach.

Or you could stop d-riding and if you REALLY think Calc is scum maybe...

So a richly detailed meta analysis, using the most up-to-date numerical methods and a well-thought-out design has demonstrated that the combined Mastin/Nacho hydra Calcifer is town.

Facts are facts, I must tip my hat and bow to science.

UNLYNCHABLE, yes, and for cause! Calcifer is our official unlynchable townie. He's an invaluable asset to the town.

OH... My... God...

-Fenix

[PeregrineV]

Vote count incoming.

[Rift Adrift]

So a richly detailed meta analysis, using the most up-to-date numerical methods and a well-thought-out design has demonstrated that the combined Mastin/Nacho hydra Calcifer is town.

Facts are facts, I must tip my hat and bow to science.

UNLYNCHABLE, yes, and for cause! Calcifer is our official unlynchable townie. He's an invaluable asset to the town.

There is no one in this game I am more paranoid about, nor whose posts I'm weighing more carefully.

[Serene]

OH... My... God...

You do understand that's sarcasm, don't you?

[PeregrineV]

First off, a brief word from our sponsor:

The management reserves the right to eject players from this establishment for any reason, real or imagined.

This right has previously been underutilized, but leniency had it's price.

Insulting other players:

Please refrain from insulting other players in this game.
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Adult language:

I'm not a huge fan of censoring this, but if I receive any more complaints about players abusing players or it detracts from the enjoyment of the game, I will ban it and/or remove the offending players.

[PeregrineV]

Vote Count 2-1

(as of Post 2589)

BulbaFenix (6)

- StevieT92, Zdenek, Calcifer, DOMO, Baby Spice, Serene

StevieT92 (4)

-KingCrabd, BROseidon, The Goat, Metal Sonic

DOMO (2)

- Ankamius, BulbaFenix

Thirdkoopa (1)

- Cephrir

Zdenek (1)

- Brian Hollywood

Calcifer (1)

- orcinus_theoriginal

Not Voting (6)

- dramonic, Shadi1337, StubbsKVM, Thirdkoopa, TMTOLBTWNTOF, Rift Adrift

With 21 alive, it takes 11 to lynch

Deadline:

Wednesday, July 24, at 9am Central Time

Replacing:

No one

Prods:

None

V/LAs:

Shadi1337July 13

[DOMO]

Translation: "I know what's really going on, but I need to make something up quick to justify this wagon that I hopped onto."

This misrep alone should be enough defence.

I didn't just hop onto this wagon. I started it. I didn't like your stevie vote, same with zdenek, I see two people enter the 2nd day with no regard for what happened overnight. So I attack you both. You respond with an attack on me, saying I need to be quicklynched if it turns out to be multiball. I see this as an attempt by someone who knows it's multiball to get a mislynch when confirmed. And here you're saying I'm trying to find reasons to justify hopping on a wagon that I started with what I see as good reason.

This...

You, however, entered into the thread today with a determination that you KNEW it was multiball. You seemed to want to get in on the spec action early and drum up some town cred for scumhunting, which is more in line with scum motivation, rather than town motivation.

Let me ask you a question... if it's multiball, wouldn't it be better for the scum if town didn't consider it? If I'm scum and I know it's multiball, I want to be able to hide behind my legit scumhunting for longer without town knwoing that scum are legit scumhunting. So if anything, it's a town tell. There's little scum motivation for wanting town to be aware that scum are actually scumhunting, is there? Town cred is lost, not gained.
I do not know if it's multiball, I suspect it is. There's reasons for that which I'll get moaned at if say it... let's just say multiball is fresh in my memory. The night kills did not make sense to me from a vig point of view. Maybe I'm wrong. But they seem like shit vig targets to me. Two scum kills made more sense. Thus, I speculated. I speculate a lot. Well done for spotting a rev tell.

I'm pretty sure I'm defending against scum here.

[Zdenek]

Ugh. Let's go over this one more time.

Rift Adrift asks Fenix if he disbelieves the mason claim. Fenix says that he doesn't, but let's ignore that part of the story for now and focus on the rest, he continues

Bulba and I have been going back and forth on this in our conversations.

What this indicated is that they have been actively discussing whether the masons are scum or not. As far as I can Bulba thinks that they are town, but he is willing to entertain the idea that they are scum. So this leads me to believe that Fenix has presented in their qt an argument that is fairly convincing to Bulba.

Bulba continues:

What makes it fake? Fenix doesn't think that Serene's mason claim is legitimate and thinks that he's scum. I've had to remind him countless times that scum masons do not exist in normal games, but he's adamant on pursuing Serene. Personally, I think discussion can't hurt, so I've given him the okay to push Serene a little bit, but that we are not going to vote for them. I figure he can do his thing, and I can do mine, and in the end we'll discuss our results and find scum.

More evidence that Fenix pushed a Serene case in the qt.

We both thought that Serene might be scum yesterday until they claimed. Fenix still thinks they're scum, while I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and look elsewhere for now. I've kept Fenix off of them for the most part since their claim. He pushed me hard on it. When d2 was about to start, he wanted to tango with Serene so bad. I finally consented, but said that we were not going to vote them.

and more, which is close to a repeat of the last bit.

This part was said when I requested details of their conversation. Notice that it indicated that Bulba consented to let Fenix tango with Serene at the start of day 2. Before we look at the content of those posts, what I would like to point out is the complete absence of any real details about their conversations. At the very least, I'd expect them to have revealed some of the reasons that Fenix thought made Serene scum, especially since he wanted to tango with her. This makes me believe that these conversations never happened. Now looking at Fenix's posts from the start of day 2, there are two interactions with Serene prior to this one is the accusation of them putting words in Ank's mouth, and some rolly-eyes at another comment about Ank. These are both comments that to me look like pot shots to discredit the slot, and what they don't look like are comments made by someone who has spent the night convincing his hydra-partner that Serene is scum and that he should go after them.

[BulbaFenix]

Ugh. Let's go over this one more time.

Rift Adrift asks Fenix if he disbelieves the mason claim. Fenix says that he doesn't, but let's ignore that part of the story for now and focus on the rest, he continues

Bulba and I have been going back and forth on this in our conversations.

What this indicated is that they have been actively discussing whether the masons are scum or not. As far as I can Bulba thinks that they are town, but he is willing to entertain the idea that they are scum. So this leads me to believe that Fenix has presented in their qt an argument that is fairly convincing to Bulba.

Bulba continues:

What makes it fake? Fenix doesn't think that Serene's mason claim is legitimate and thinks that he's scum. I've had to remind him countless times that scum masons do not exist in normal games, but he's adamant on pursuing Serene. Personally, I think discussion can't hurt, so I've given him the okay to push Serene a little bit, but that we are not going to vote for them. I figure he can do his thing, and I can do mine, and in the end we'll discuss our results and find scum.

More evidence that Fenix pushed a Serene case in the qt.

We both thought that Serene might be scum yesterday until they claimed. Fenix still thinks they're scum, while I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and look elsewhere for now. I've kept Fenix off of them for the most part since their claim. He pushed me hard on it. When d2 was about to start, he wanted to tango with Serene so bad. I finally consented, but said that we were not going to vote them.

and more, which is close to a repeat of the last bit.

This part was said when I requested details of their conversation. Notice that it indicated that Bulba consented to let Fenix tango with Serene at the start of day 2. Before we look at the content of those posts, what I would like to point out is the complete absence of any real details about their conversations. At the very least, I'd expect them to have revealed some of the reasons that Fenix thought made Serene scum, especially since he wanted to tango with her. This makes me believe that these conversations never happened. Now looking at Fenix's posts from the start of day 2, there are two interactions with Serene prior to this one is the accusation of them putting words in Ank's mouth, and some rolly-eyes at another comment about Ank. These are both comments that to me look like pot shots to discredit the slot, and what they don't look like are comments made by someone who has spent the night convincing his hydra-partner that Serene is scum and that he should go after them.

1.) Rift Adrift asks me a question in a way where you're going to try and take the wording of my answer and ride it into the ground. How many times does someone have to point out, I thought their claim was bullshit from the start? Point. Blank. PERIOD!

2.) Bulba is taking the mason claim at face value and wanting to look elsewhere. I, however, like him, will not let something go once I have a sniff/read/feeling on it. I want him to focus on our other reads while I get the chance to focus on what my gut is telling ME.

3.) I kept going "Bulba, I've got this feeling, let me RUN with it," because of my feeling/read. He focuses one direction for scum, I go another. What's the problem here?

4.) We had Serene at a null in our original reads (Bulba wanted him as null/town, I wanted him as scum. Compromise for a null read). You can go back to day 1 and see that. I was seeing Serene as scum at the start. This was even BEFORE the claim even came in.

5.) Those conversations did happen, via skype and telephone. I just kept on him, let me go... Let me go... LET ME GO... My gut is SCREAMING for *list of reasons*... All he had to do was say, "ok, go!" Once those words were said, I'm always one to tango with someone. I tangoed with Bulba as scum, and I've tangoed with him as town. He KNOWS my dance skills (and is a great partner I might add). I was entertaining company yesterday, so my song to hit the dance floor was delayed. We know each other VERY well and know how the other likes to play and discuss this game nightly.

Translation: "I know what's really going on, but I need to make something up quick to justify this wagon that I hopped onto."

This misrep alone should be enough defence.

I didn't just hop onto this wagon. I started it. I didn't like your stevie vote, same with zdenek, I see two people enter the 2nd day with no regard for what happened overnight. So I attack you both. You respond with an attack on me, saying I need to be quicklynched if it turns out to be multiball. I see this as an attempt by someone who knows it's multiball to get a mislynch when confirmed. And here you're saying I'm trying to find reasons to justify hopping on a wagon that I started with what I see as good reason.

This...

You, however, entered into the thread today with a determination that you KNEW it was multiball. You seemed to want to get in on the spec action early and drum up some town cred for scumhunting, which is more in line with scum motivation, rather than town motivation.

Let me ask you a question... if it's multiball, wouldn't it be better for the scum if town didn't consider it? If I'm scum and I know it's multiball, I want to be able to hide behind my legit scumhunting for longer without town knwoing that scum are legit scumhunting. So if anything, it's a town tell. There's little scum motivation for wanting town to be aware that scum are actually scumhunting, is there? Town cred is lost, not gained.
I do not know if it's multiball, I suspect it is. There's reasons for that which I'll get moaned at if say it... let's just say multiball is fresh in my memory. The night kills did not make sense to me from a vig point of view. Maybe I'm wrong. But they seem like shit vig targets to me. Two scum kills made more sense. Thus, I speculated. I speculate a lot. Well done for spotting a rev tell.

I'm pretty sure I'm defending against scum here.

Ok. So, i'll entertain you with a question as well. Let's entertain a fact here.

Why come in and throw down a, "well we're in multiball because if it were a vig, then his targeting was bad"? IF there's a vig in play, how do we know his targeting was horrible or what their thought was behind their target? Think about it for a second. No one in their right mind is going to throw away the theory of multiball with 2 kills coming in. Hell, I saw both kills and told Bulba as soon as the thread opened up we MIGHT be in multiball. He threw down that it might also be a vig. We went, eh, let's just hunt. You came in determined that it was already multiball.

-Fenix

[Cephrir]

"Looks like multiball" != "is multiball"

I don't see the scum motivation in pretending to suspect Serene, seeing as there is no chance it will ever amount to anything.

[Serene]

I don't see the scum motivation in pretending to suspect Serene

Here's to scum hoping that Serene won't be watched or doc-protected.

[Zdenek]

5.) Those conversations did happen, via skype and telephone. I just kept on him, let me go... Let me go... LET ME GO... My gut is SCREAMING for *list of reasons*... All he had to do was say, "ok, go!" Once those words were said, I'm always one to tango with someone. I tangoed with Bulba as scum, and I've tangoed with him as town. He KNOWS my dance skills (and is a great partner I might add). I was entertaining company yesterday, so my song to hit the dance floor was delayed. We know each other VERY well and know how the other likes to play and discuss this game nightly.

and the reason that I don't believe you is that you didn't start off the day with *list of reasons* or even give them when I asked about your conversations.

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

That's what I was looking for. I've played one game with Mastin prior to this one, and he was scum. He didn't make any sort of appeal like that to another player who was reading him as scum. I didn't run across anything like that reading old games. I think it's maybe something directly related to someone he presumed to be part of Serene.

Regarding the meta on Calcifer, both heads, is it possible it could change due to them playing together?

I was more interested in whether the AtE we saw d1 in regard to Serene was more in line with town Mastin or scum Mastin.

-Bulba

I need to stop doing this...

Only took me once, I don't know what your problem is

So calcifer is the hardest to lynch scum read that you have

Shouldn't we sort of not let that kind of scum reach endgame

I'll let you use your phenomenal powers of persuasion and non-garbage play and outstandingly accurate reads to summon a Calcifer wagon. Show me how it's done, teach.

Or you could stop d-riding and if you REALLY think Calc is scum maybe...

So a richly detailed meta analysis, using the most up-to-date numerical methods and a well-thought-out design has demonstrated that the combined Mastin/Nacho hydra Calcifer is town.

Facts are facts, I must tip my hat and bow to science.

UNLYNCHABLE, yes, and for cause! Calcifer is our official unlynchable townie. He's an invaluable asset to the town.

OH... My... God...

-Fenix

I don't understand what your motivation is for pointing these out, if Serene is mason claim

[Zdenek]

I'd be totally willing to put everything else on hold to lynch ^.

[Rift Adrift]

Regarding the meta on Calcifer, both heads, is it possible it could change due to them playing together?

Yes, it could. When I wrote the post you were replying to, I added some Calcifer games to my list of meta-dive projects.