Micro 200 - Two Chances (Game Over)

[Xegarus]

I would really like to hear more from DBK, Madi and absta.

[absta101]

If people don't agree with Xeg's list, we could do it alphabeticaly.

absta101
DBK
Dr
Evil
Madi
Xeg

Two lists from two different players. I prefer Xeg's list.

[absta101]

I was mistaken.; no lynching is relatively fine.

You forgot to respond to my other point. Why did you vote Madi because of some spreadsheet and not his actual play?
---

The reason I choose Xeg's list is because it's the Mod's list and i've never been in a game where scum are next to each other in the official list.

[Empking]

You forgot to respond to my other point. Why did you vote Madi because of some spreadsheet and not his actual play?

The spreadsheet is a representation of his play. If focusing on the medium gets in your way of seeing the message, then you should stop focusing on the medium.

[absta101]

What?

[Xegarus]

The spreadsheet is a representation of his play.

Ha bs.
The spreadsheets are one persons opinion of others. Not a representation of anyone play.

[Xegarus]

The reason I choose Xeg's list is because it's the Mod's list and i've never been in a game where scum are next to each other in the official list.

If the roles are randomised, then it would not matter.

[Xegarus]

I just remembered that when town gets lynched, they essentialy become a confirmed town and still play.......
Well that changes everything.

Is that what you were reffering to emp in your "didnt account me" thing?

Cause if it was, you could have said so.


Also

In post 302, Empking wrote:
Going 'its all hypothetical 'its completely hypothetical' and 'its all just theory' is trying to pretend you were just clearing your throat.


Sorry? I dont quite understand what you mean by that.
Can you elaborate?

You have a act for not doing what i ask you.

[Empking]

I just remembered that when town gets lynched, they essentialy become a confirmed town and still play.......
Well that changes everything.

Is that what you were reffering to emp in your "didnt account me" thing?

Cause if it was, you could have said so.

It was and I assumed that before you set up speculated you knew the set up. Your reaction supported my first assertion that not mentioning me was gratuitous scum play rather than ignorance.

Also

In post 302, Empking wrote:
Going 'its all hypothetical 'its completely hypothetical' and 'its all just theory' is trying to pretend you were just clearing your throat.


Sorry? I dont quite understand what you mean by that.
Can you elaborate?

You have a act for not doing what i ask you.

Sorry, my computer froze after I wrote a reply to this. I mustve not posted it. The amount of detensifiers seemed to try and make it seem like you were giving it less support than your actions gave it.

[Empking]

The spreadsheet is a representation of his play.

Ha bs.
The spreadsheets are one persons opinion of others. Not a representation of anyone play.

It's a subjective representation but its still a representation. The literal other perspective is why it was so useful.

[absta101]

Even if Emp was to flip town, there would still be no reason for him to be in the list.

[absta101]

Actually, I take that back.

[DrDolittle]

no the list is a shit idea.

[Xegarus]

It was and I assumed that before you set up speculated you knew the set up.

I only read the setup wiki during sign up. Its been over 2 weeks since.
The Role PM's and the rules dont mention this part so i forgot about it.

The amount of detensifiers seemed to try and make it seem like you were giving it less support than your actions gave it.

I was trying to make it clear that it was all just theory and was open to change and debate.
I am completely supportive of a similar plan. I am also perfectly fine with absta's variation.

It's a subjective representation but its still a representation. The literal other perspective is why it was so useful.

The spreadsheet is a representation of his play.

But you clearly stated that it was a representation of someones play here.
Its one persons view on other people. This view means absolutely nothing until we get a flip. Its essentially another form of read.
If i was to say Player A is top scum read. Would that be enough to convince you to vote that person? I should hope not.
I understand that this situation is apples and oranges to each other. But apples and oranges are still fruit.

[Xegarus]

no the list is a shit idea.

Why?
Just saying its shit tells us nothing.
My plan works. But it has a flaw. I feel that it is worth the risk to still go through with it.
Another flaw i have just remembered is that what if we dont all follow it.
If the majority were to agree to my plan but one to disagree. If that one does not follow it, it potentially could seriously fuck the whole plan up. I feel that even one person not following would mean that we would be in the exact same situation as not having a plan at all. Cause then scum can say what ever and we would have no way of being able to find out.

[Xegarus]

also, this

Dr, wtf are you taking about?
Its like you went full retard.
Wtf is 315 and 316 about? Can you not read? Did you not see the part where only one scum would intimidate?
You said my plan was actually scummy? How? The obvious possible flaw that I pointed out my self?

You have yet to answer my questions. If you cant tell which questions i want answered, its the last 3.

[DrDolittle]

First, Empking is town. So Empking is town
As long as two scum line up, rather than 3, in your list of 7, scum can muck up the investigation so that at most a townie ends up investigated. The probability in a random line up that 3 two scum line up is 31/35. 31 out of fucking 35. and you still maintain its a good idea?

[DrDolittle]

First, Empking is town. So Empking is town
As long as two scum line up, rather than 3, in your list of 7, scum can muck up the investigation so that at most a townie ends up investigated

positive

. The probability in a random line up that

3

two scum line up is 31/35. 31 out of fucking 35. and you still maintain its a good idea?

sorry typed too fast

[Xegarus]

Finally, some real discussion.
True, worst case scenario is that we lynch town and that 2 of the 3 scum are together.
But best case scenario is that we lynch scum and that the 2 scum are spread out.
I see no way that emp is not scum.
I'll ask one more time, why is emp town to you?


We all have our biases on who we would view if we were to not discuss it at all. But i'm certain we would overlap and leave big gaps for scum to just crawl in and manipulate. This is why i personally do not like the idea of us just doing what ever.

[IceGuy]

Vote Count

Empking (3): Xegarus, Evil Regals, Madi
Madi (3): Empking, Does Bo Know, DrDolittle

Not voting (1): absta101

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline is July 27th, midnight CEST.

@MOD
The scums have to choose an intimidate target. Can that target be a scum?

-

Intimidation

: One scum player must intimidate another player

(this includes fellow scum players)

every Night. If you do not submit an action, it will be randomized.

[DrDolittle]

Just read the last three pages. Do you see any scum motivation? In fact, do the whole Emp ISO - There is no scum motivation lying behind any actions.

Re: Madi-vote, voting based on a spreadsheet is perfected reasonable. I voted partically regarding the spreadsheet. DBK also voted partically regarding the spreadsheet. The fact that all three of us reached the same conclusion, based on abasta's reasoning, is that we are all scum?

Now, onto "plan". If Empking is town, to NOT reach your worst case senario, it would be less likely than throwing a dice and hoping a six comes up. Even if all three/two scum (which empking is scum) are kept separated (your best case senario), what if the scum claims that the townie which has been intimidated was not intimidated? So we'd still just have 1 guilty that is unverificable in any means


However, if the investigation is kept arbitrary, then even if there is big holes scum can not plan for it. If we can catch scum trapped in the outlayer, we've got scum. So essentially, we are putting this chance in our own judgements instead of putting the chance as luck prescribed by some list. Another benefit would be the mass results phase tomorrow, for which we could get contradictory results. This is the real power of the investigation, rather than the actual results.

[DrDolittle]

In post 281, DrDolittle wrote:Comments on the spreadsheet - agreements/disagreements?



I'm pretty null on the spreadsheet thing. How you behave towards someone else is different than how it appears to me, to you and to everyone else. What are we basing these likely unlikely statuses on? Absta makes a good point on the unknown alignment thing. All this practically means nothing until an alignment is revealed. I don't think the spreadsheet should be used as reasons to vote for someone as they are completely subjective. Its just a read.

Would you care to make a spreadsheet? I think interpersonal communication is a pretty overt and objective subject. DBK and I differed only on 4 accounts. I would be surprised if your sheet was significantly different.

[Xegarus]

Would you care to make a spreadsheet?

No. The spreadsheet shows who you think is likely to be scum partners together. Not who is scum. And unfortunately i don't see any point in doing so apart from after we get a flip. I cannot come up with any reads of partners together due to their interactions as interactions can be faked and also faked easily in this set up with the day talk. My reads are all i can truly give you. Once we have a flip, then i maybe able to do the spreadsheet cause then certain interactions can have motives.
I hope you can understand that.

Also Dr, your probability ratio of 31/35. Could you go through the maths with me please?
I'm not exactly good at maths so i would just like to understand how you came to your conclusion.
Also could someone then verify if the maths is correct or if everthing had been taken into account?

[DrDolittle]

I actually prefer if you can do it now as so you can't manipulate your thoughts depending on actually who gets lynched, but I understand if you want to reserve your opinions.

So we have 3 scum 4 town. We use complementary counting to determine probability of no two scum touches.
We have 4! ways to arrange the town in any order.
Then we need to fit the 3 scums in the 4 gaps between the 4 towns in a circle
There are 3! ways to arrange the scums
There are 4 ways that the already arranged scums can fit in the 4 gaps.
Thus there are 4!*3!*4 ways for an arrangement and there are 7! ways in total to place the people.
Thus probability of no two scum touches = 4!*3!*4/7! = 4/35, and probability of there exists two scum touches = 1 - 4/35 = 31/35 > 5/6, which is the dice rolling analogy.

[DrDolittle]

The only mistake here would probably be the rotation element, so a fix could be as such:

So we have 3 scum 4 town. We use complementary counting to determine probability of no two scum touches. Lets Fix Empking Town so that Rotation errors will not result
We have 3! ways to arrange the other towns in any order.
Then we need to fit the 3 scums in the 4 gaps between the 4 towns in a circle
There are 3! ways to arrange the scums
There are 4 ways that the already arranged scums can fit in the 4 gaps.
Thus there are 3!*3!*4 ways for an arrangement and there are 6! ways in total to place the people (since Emp is fixed).
Thus probability of no two scum touches = 3!*3!*4/6! = 1/5, and probability of there exists two scum touches = 1 - 1/5 = 4/5, which is still pretty significant.