Open 520: Stacking the Deck Part II - Game Over...Mafia Win!

[Mutleyddmc]

So you don't think the traitor got hit?

I would personally pick 3 too. But the last game they went for 0 and it worked. Scum could have looked back and followed.

[JasonWazza]

Why would it be more likely the traitor got hit then a Roleblocker? (i don't believe it would)

[Saki]

Saki

Are you scum

No.

Can we lynch mutley?

Mutley do you promise not to quickwagon me?

[Mutleyddmc]

Why would it be more likely the traitor got hit then a Roleblocker? (i don't believe it would)

Didn't say more likely. I beleive it is jsut as likely though. I don't think any roleblocker should claim either

[Mutleyddmc]

Saki

Are you scum

No.

Can we lynch mutley?

Mutley do you promise not to quickwagon me?

I promise you my heart

[Saki]

If that happens one more time I'm blacklisting you.

[Mutleyddmc]

Also actually it is probably more likely that the traitor got hit if you think about the set up

[Mutleyddmc]

If that happens one more time I'm blacklisting you.

on going game we will discuss it after its finished!

[JasonWazza]

What's the chance that the traitor is the most likely town, compared to the roleblocker hitting the most townie scum?

P-Edit: not really

[Mutleyddmc]

Well say mafia do what the original game does that means 2 PRs. and a traitor as set up.

We have an IC. so that leaves 1 other PR. from a option of 5. So 1/5 chance role blocker is in.

But guranteed traitor is in. So yer more likely really.

[JasonWazza]

But that's assuming that the scum a) read the last game, b) followed the same strategy KNOWING the last scum team picked it.

[Mutleyddmc]

Yes but still. Thats a start.

Then if you take 1 extra etc. I still think its jsut as likely if not more likely for it to have happened.

[JasonWazza]

Given the idea of a traitor, i don't believe he was hit.

[Mutleyddmc]

What do you mean by that?

[JasonWazza]

The idea of the traitor is to be slightly scummy so that you get out of being shot at.

[Mutleyddmc]

Maybe scum thought the traitor was doing that to hide a PR

[Sakura Hana]

That reminds me, considering how bubba was acting he could've been the traitor in mafia's eyes, and i think we should FoS people that seemed like they wanted to save him but without interfering much.

[Mutleyddmc]

Sak why you no kill Tammy!!

[Tammy]

Vote Count 2.01

Saki (1) - Sakura Hana,

Not Voting (10)- elleheathen, fuzzybutternut, JasonWazza, jsmith1234, Mutleyddmc, notscience, qwertyuiop, saki, Soundsofmusic, TheGreatOne

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

The deadline is Thursday, August 29, 2013, at 4:25 PM CDT (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2013-08-29 17:24:38).

[Sakura Hana]

Sak why you no kill Tammy!!

Not this again... i already feel bad about that :<

[jsmith1234]

Actually,

you're

assuming that this supposed 'townieness from awestfie's slip' couldn't have just as easily come from an unrecruited mafia as it might have from town. Smaller odds, sure - still a possibility.

Great point, thanks. I revise my earlier point about Saki and now only think he's likely clear of being mafia goon.

I'm also inclined to agree with Jason's idea of having the roleblocker claim and outting their target. Yes there is a risk that we both have a roleblocker who whiffed their RB

and

mafia shot their traitor, but I think the likelihood of this occurring is small enough that it's worth taking the risk of having roleblocker claim. Not only do we have a high chance of lynching mafia today, but as Jason said, the roleblocker still has a chance of getting the 2nd mafia goon the next night. Plus, they could out their desired target before the day ends, so if a kill does occur the following night, we at least know their desired target is clear of being a goon.

If mafia decides to fakeclaim roleblocker, then we trade their fake target for one of them, which I think is fine.

If nobody claims, we now have more information about what the possible setup is, and can probably assume mafia lovetapped their traitor.

Regarding setupspec, not only did mafia elect to take 0 buffs last game, but they were partially basing that off of a discussion where it was argued that taking no extra roles was optimal play for town. I agree with that idea as well. So by pure likelihood, I would think we most likely only have 2 PRs. Of course we have no info to confirm that, and it's not a very high likelihood, but as more claims and night actions come out, it's worth keeping in mind.

[Mutleyddmc]

so now if no roleblocker comes out, the mafia kow for sure they hit their traitor and that three isn't a roleblocker.

I don't think a claim should happen

[bubbajack8]

Obligatory.

Fuck you, told you so, Bah post.

Oh and to go even more with the I told you so.

You guys are basing scum 2 on a flip that hasn't and

won't

happen.

You realize a bah post has no in game info AND you don't get a bah post if your lynched right?

I realize the no in game info, and I didn't feel I included in-game info.

No Bah! post for getting lynched? );

no, you're dead. No talking.

[jsmith1234]

Btw in my earlier post I meant to say taking no extra roles was optimal play for mafia.

@Mutley: Yes, but town would also know that. Plus, mafia knowing traitor isn't such a huge benefit for them imo. Oftentimes, not knowing who your partners are as scum is beneficial since you don't have to worry about any subconscious interaction tells. If it's confirmed mafia know who their traitor is, we now have an additional potential link for future scumhunting. I agree that having roleblocker claim comes with risks, but I think the potential benefits outweigh the potential costs. It isn't a clear-cut move so I can understand if the rest of you are averse to it, but I am all in favor of it and would recommend it barring any other counterarguments that sway my opinion.

[Mutleyddmc]

OK I am the roleblocker and I blocked the IC.......................