NY 165: A Large Normal (Game Over!)

[Shadi1337]

If there was a doctor, they damn well should come forward. They'd be directly countering baby spice: from their point of view, she'd be confirmed scum

Well I suppose you have a point, but idk; a doctor is a very valuable town member?

How do you figure letters was being bussed when there was a cop guilty on him? That's not bussing, that's just Follow The PR. There was no other lynch option that day

Rephrase.

It's hard to call anyone out for bussing when there's a cop guilty. Scum has no choice but to follow the cop. Can't redirect the wagon, can't derail it, so being on it is the only option.

Ok, TY!

[BROseidon]

Okay I'm caught up.

I agree with DOMO that the most suspect claim is Crabd's, and that Rift isn't 100%, but I think we also can't take Ank's claim to be 100% true. It's more likely true than false, but there is always the chance it was a fakeclaim with a hardbus. TKO is confirmed because otherwise the Stevie kill is unaccounted for, and BS is confirmed assuming nobody counterclaims a protective role because TKO claimed the Orc kill and we only had 1 kill last night, which means we are missing 2 kills. Logically, this means that BS/RA/Serene have been on the receiving end of 2 NKs.

I think that lynching out of the VTs is the way to go today, and within that group I think Baezu is the way to go, although I'd be okay lynching Stubbs or Shadi, too. I don't want to lynch Serene, penguin, or DOMO.

VOTE: Baezu

[DOMO]

Hmm... I just thought of something... does anyone know if a scum RB'er would be able to block and kill on the same night? I'm under the impression they can't, but I'm not sure.

Point is, if scum RB'er cannot kill and block same night, then if crabd is scum RB'er, he could not have shot orc unless he didn't block him.

Rift tracking crabd to the orc kill might not be so incriminating after all.

[BROseidon]

Hmm... I just thought of something... does anyone know if a scum RB'er would be able to block and kill on the same night? I'm under the impression they can't, but I'm not sure.

Point is, if scum RB'er cannot kill and block same night, then if crabd is scum RB'er, he could not have shot orc unless he didn't block him.

Rift tracking crabd to the orc kill might not be so incriminating after all.

Typically scum can't use both a PR and the factional kill. I couldn't in Xenoblade (which is why Orc got cross-shot).

Crabd could have also just killed Orc, although the way he claimed his action in response to RA would require that to have been a planned claim.

[Rift Adrift]

Hmm... I just thought of something... does anyone know if a scum RB'er would be able to block and kill on the same night? I'm under the impression they can't, but I'm not sure.

Point is, if scum RB'er cannot kill and block same night, then if crabd is scum RB'er, he could not have shot orc unless he didn't block him.

Rift tracking crabd to the orc kill might not be so incriminating after all.

I didn't out my track of crabd until well after he claimed his role and night actions.

I would expect scum-Crabd to take a potential track or watch into account in his role claim, so it doesn't at all clear him in my eyes.

[Baby Spice]

Vote Baezu

[Baezu]

I actually think Serene's claim is fake. Not saying he's scum, but I don't think he's VT.

Same goes for DOMO. 6 PRs for town sounds like too little for a 24 player game but I've never played one with so many people. Maybe some people are trying to protect against a nk by claiming VT.

And is this based on gut? The ones you think aren't telling the truth about their VT claim but could still be town? If it is, try to explain it; if it isn't gut where are you getting it from?

I was just thinking that if I were a doctor, for example, I may claim VT so as not to give scum a clear option of who to target. So why wouldn't someone is a similar position do a similar thing?

I didn't say your logic behind lying about a claim was bad or anything; it just seems like you are pointing towards specific people and I wonder why. Did they (soft) claim before? Have they done the same in previous games?(meta) did they seem to see themselves as a bit more useful than a simple VT?

I'm not going to talk about any ongoing games so for now please take my reads for what they are. Thanks.

[Baezu]

There was a missing kill on n3. Babyspice claims she protected serene n3. If we're to assume that the protection lasts two nights, then babyspice self protected on n2. It seems that one of the following happened... serene was attacked and protected, babyspice was attacked and protected, or crabd shot the same person as koopa. I think it's looking likely that crabd is scum.

vote crabd

I've been saying this for most of the game

[Baezu]

Vote Baezu

Any particular reason?

[Serene]

1) Why would you say you think we're not a PR but probably not scum? If you think we're a PR, keep your mouth shut about it. Or shoot us tonight if you're scum

2) I dunno bout DGB or Head 3, but I'm not in any other games right now anyway (and in fact am again contemplating retirement)

3) I would absolutely 1:1 myself as a doctor against a scum claim

4) Not claiming a PR in this slot would be pretty fucking stupid since scum won't kill us for reasons I've mentioned (or they tried and failed) and no one would believe us if we changed our claim, and for that matter we sure as hell wouldn't have claimed VT after admitting that we weren't masons.

[DOMO]

so it doesn't at all clear him in my eyes.

No it certainly doesn't clear him, but I'm less sure if he's optimal lynch for today. I can't see scum RB'er being the only weapon they have, we had town BP too. So I doubt killing off scum RB'er today guarantees protection for babyspice.

If we don't kill crabd today, then rift should seriously consider tracking him.

I've been saying this for most of the game

But it's a flawed position based on the fact that if crabd is scum roleblocker, than he's probably not the one doing the killing. So it looks like crabd did indeed block orc, regardless of his alignment.

On another note, I'm going to be away on holiday for most of the next month, at the very least two weeks of it, probably three. Therefore

I have asked the mod to find a replacement for me

. My apologies for this guys, I only expected to be away for a week when I signed up, plus I was expecting to be hydra, so I didn't expect it to be a problem.

Here's my thoughts on those who remain...

Ankamius - claimed cop, cleared babyspice and nailed TMT, very probably honest.
Baby Spice - cop cleared, claimed white mage, protected rift, spice, serene, rift, very probably honest.
Baezu - claimed vanilla, brian hollywood's replacement, baezu made that recent "thanks mafia" comment which pinged pretty hard, probably scum.
BROseidon - claimed vanilla, seemed scummy as hell to me through days one and two, has been much better since, leaning town.
KingCrabd - claimed RB'er, blocked bluba n1, shadi n2, orc n3, stubbs n4... I'm leaning scum on crabd based purely on his claim, but the orc track isn't as incriminating as first appeared. He needs to be analysed carefully, his ISO is too big for me to bother doing this now.
penguin_alien - claimed vanilla, previous owners of this slot metalsonic, slandaar and marquis. This slot will need to be analysed carefully too, it's hard to get a read when the slot changes hands so often. I'm pretty much null here.
Rift Adrift - claimed tracker, tracked orc n1 (went nowhere), slandaar n2 (nowhere), crabd n3 (visited orc, as claimed), jon n4 (nowhere). The missing kill on n4 on a night where a claimed tracker was protected, it looks like rift was targetted and this increases the chances of her claim being honest. Heavily leaning town.
Shadi1337 - claimed vanilla, pretty large ISO, I'll have to leave him to you guys and my replacement. I'm leaning scum based purely on numbers.
StubbsKVM - claimed vanilla, missing kill looks bad for him since crabd claims he blocked him, but with rift protected and likely target, he's not confscum. Plus, crabd could be lying about his n4 block, expecting rift to track elsewhere. Again, leaning scum based on numbers.
Thirdkoopa - claimed vig, claimed his shots, not countered. Town vig 100%.
Serene - claimed mason unclaimed mason claimed vanilla... I have no fucking idea what serene is or what they're smoking.

Lynch pool from my pov is baezu, BRO, crabd, penguin, shadi, stubbs, serene. Throw my slot in there and we're facing something like 4 scum in a pool of 8.

I'd say if there's 4 scum then most likely they appear to be baezu, crabd, shadi and stubbs, but BRO, serene and penguin all could be scum. If there's scum outside of this pool, then I feel we need to get lucky to win.

I'll remove my vote for the benefit of my replacement,

unvote crabd

I feel that's the best I can leave you with. Again, my apologies for replacing out. gl town.

[Serene]

Why are you not questioning the continues survival of town power roles, cop innocents, and universal town reads?

Continual survival of all the claimed prs, innocents, etc, is bothering the hell out of me.

Who is in your lynch pool?

personally, I'd rather lynch among the VTs

but dram's town flip has me so demoralized, right now I intend to pretty much coast until DGB gets back to Canada anyway


what i REALLY need to do is go back and read parts of the game and maybe my hydra QT

but honestly that hydra QT has like 500 posts in it

[Serene]

I have no fucking idea what serene is or what they're smoking.

greatest hydra everrrrrrrrrrrr




although judging from our play, i'm coming to the conclusion that the sum of our parts is less than um... the whole of

wait, how does that saying go




we're better individually than together

[Rift Adrift]

so it doesn't at all clear him in my eyes.

No it certainly doesn't clear him, but I'm less sure if he's optimal lynch for today. I can't see scum RB'er being the only weapon they have, we had town BP too. So I doubt killing off scum RB'er today guarantees protection for babyspice.

If we don't kill crabd today, then rift should seriously consider tracking him.

I've been saying this for most of the game

But it's a flawed position based on the fact that if crabd is scum roleblocker, than he's probably not the one doing the killing. So it looks like crabd did indeed block orc, regardless of his alignment.

On another note, I'm going to be away on holiday for most of the next month, at the very least two weeks of it, probably three. Therefore

I have asked the mod to find a replacement for me

. My apologies for this guys, I only expected to be away for a week when I signed up, plus I was expecting to be hydra, so I didn't expect it to be a problem.

Here's my thoughts on those who remain...

Ankamius - claimed cop, cleared babyspice and nailed TMT, very probably honest.
Baby Spice - cop cleared, claimed white mage, protected rift, spice, serene, rift, very probably honest.
Baezu - claimed vanilla, brian hollywood's replacement, baezu made that recent "thanks mafia" comment which pinged pretty hard, probably scum.
BROseidon - claimed vanilla, seemed scummy as hell to me through days one and two, has been much better since, leaning town.
KingCrabd - claimed RB'er, blocked bluba n1, shadi n2, orc n3, stubbs n4... I'm leaning scum on crabd based purely on his claim, but the orc track isn't as incriminating as first appeared. He needs to be analysed carefully, his ISO is too big for me to bother doing this now.
penguin_alien - claimed vanilla, previous owners of this slot metalsonic, slandaar and marquis. This slot will need to be analysed carefully too, it's hard to get a read when the slot changes hands so often. I'm pretty much null here.
Rift Adrift - claimed tracker, tracked orc n1 (went nowhere), slandaar n2 (nowhere), crabd n3 (visited orc, as claimed), jon n4 (nowhere). The missing kill on n4 on a night where a claimed tracker was protected, it looks like rift was targetted and this increases the chances of her claim being honest. Heavily leaning town.
Shadi1337 - claimed vanilla, pretty large ISO, I'll have to leave him to you guys and my replacement. I'm leaning scum based purely on numbers.
StubbsKVM - claimed vanilla, missing kill looks bad for him since crabd claims he blocked him, but with rift protected and likely target, he's not confscum. Plus, crabd could be lying about his n4 block, expecting rift to track elsewhere. Again, leaning scum based on numbers.
Thirdkoopa - claimed vig, claimed his shots, not countered. Town vig 100%.
Serene - claimed mason unclaimed mason claimed vanilla... I have no fucking idea what serene is or what they're smoking.

Lynch pool from my pov is baezu, BRO, crabd, penguin, shadi, stubbs, serene. Throw my slot in there and we're facing something like 4 scum in a pool of 8.

I'd say if there's 4 scum then most likely they appear to be baezu, crabd, shadi and stubbs, but BRO, serene and penguin all could be scum. If there's scum outside of this pool, then I feel we need to get lucky to win.

I'll remove my vote for the benefit of my replacement,

unvote crabd

I feel that's the best I can leave you with. Again, my apologies for replacing out. gl town.

^^ Town as fuck

Thanks, DOMO. Enjoy your holiday.

(I have gone back and forth on you partly because sometimes your paranoia has looked over the top - and yes, that's ironic coming from me. Putting together a comprehensive reads/gamestate wall before replacing out, though. Town. As. Fuck.)

[Rift Adrift]

Why are you not questioning the continues survival of town power roles, cop innocents, and universal town reads?

Continual survival of all the claimed prs, innocents, etc, is bothering the hell out of me.

Who is in your lynch pool?

personally, I'd rather lynch among the VTs

but dram's town flip has me so demoralized, right now I intend to pretty much coast until DGB gets back to Canada anyway


what i REALLY need to do is go back and read parts of the game and maybe my hydra QT

but honestly that hydra QT has like 500 posts in it

That is where I am leaning. And Baezu, Stubbs and Shadi have all made cringeworthy posts this game day. Baezu's was objectively the worst. I'm trying to factor how she plays as town into that judgement.

Kuribo I have a lot of respect for your mafia skills. Don't coast until DGB gets back.

@Crabd, you never got back to me about Baezu meta from those 3 games I linked. Any thoughts?

[Rift Adrift]

Why are you not questioning the continues survival of town power roles, cop innocents, and universal town reads?

Continual survival of all the claimed prs, innocents, etc, is bothering the hell out of me.

Who is in your lynch pool?

personally, I'd rather lynch among the VTs

but dram's town flip has me so demoralized, right now I intend to pretty much coast until DGB gets back to Canada anyway


what i REALLY need to do is go back and read parts of the game and maybe my hydra QT

but honestly that hydra QT has like 500 posts in it

That is where I am leaning. And Baezu, Stubbs and Shadi have all made cringeworthy posts this game day. Baezu's was objectively the worst. I'm trying to factor how she plays as town into that judgement.

Kuribo I have a lot of respect for your mafia skills. Don't coast until DGB gets back.

@Crabd, you never got back to me about Baezu meta from those 3 games I linked. Any thoughts?

[BROseidon]

Have fun on holiday!

And yeah, what ffery said >.>

I'd also like to point out that Baezu replaced Brian Hollywood who was also scummy as fuck.

[StubbsKVM]

Rift, what post by me are you refering to exactly?

[KingCrabd]

I have recent shadi as scum data from vengeball two, and it does NOT fit his play here.

Stubbs, however, the "why me" in 4792 paired with 4662/4663 makes me okay with that wagon. Rift, meta on baezu?
You have more data than me.

VOTE: stubbs

And what are we going to do about serene?

[StubbsKVM]

What the hell are you talking about Crabd, I am simply asking what Rift is referring to, because he didn't mention this earlier.

[Shadi1337]

I have recent shadi as scum data from vengeball two, and it does NOT fit his play here.

Stubbs, however, the "why me" in 4792 paired with 4662/4663 makes me okay with that wagon. Rift, meta on baezu?
You have more data than me.

VOTE: stubbs

And what are we going to do about serene?

Elaborate. I'm not gonna say ur analysis is wrong or anything unless I find something critically wrong with it. Just curious as of where you base your analysis and what exactly you're juxtaposing in the style I have here and had in vengeball.

[Baezu]

I've had a crazy shit day after being stranded in the airport last night. I will do a comprehensive reads list tonight.

[PeregrineV]

Vote Count 5-4

(as of Post 4796)

Baezu (3)

- Shadi1337, BROseidon, Baby Spice

StubbsKVM (2)

- Thirdkoopa, KingCrabd

Serene (1)

- StubbsKVM

Not Voting (6)

- Ankamius, Baezu, penguin_alien, Rift Adrift, Serene, DOMO

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline:

Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 11am Central Time ((expired on 2013-08-31 11:01:01))

Replacing:

DOMO

Prods:

None

V/LAs:

None

[penguin_alien]

Mod: I will be V/LA for hopefully only 36 hours dealing with a family crisis. If I need to extend it I'll update you. Thanks.

[Ankamius]

V/LA Friday to Tuesday