NY 165: A Large Normal (Game Over!)

[Serene]

Is SafetyDance null? Or town?

Why are you calling AP scum for trying to lynch someone you claim is the SK... WHILE COMPLAINING THAT NO ONE WILL HELP YOU LYNCH THE SK



get to stepping with that bullshit, man, your reads are fabricated as fuck

[Serene]

It's obviously not jailkeep or scumblocker, or lots of shit would have been blocked by now.

like all these nights we've only had one kill?


or the fact that you claim to have blocked Stubbs and then decided NO WAIT SOMEONE ELSE MUST BE A KILLER

[penguin_alien]

THEN WHY ROLEBLOCK

he's not even looking for mafia, he's SK hunting

This does make sense--if there is an SK, it stands to reason that they're likely concerned about Mafia numbers at this point and are shooting for scum. So why impede them?

All the same, I still like the Stubbs lynch. Does anyone have a town read on him, and if so, can you elaborate a bit?

[Serene]

by the way, calling us SK is pretty fucking stupid when you consider cephrir is the only 100% confirmed not-mafia / not-vig kill, and we thought he was fucking town

if we were the SK gunning for mafia, we have plenty of other people that were higher up the scumlist at that point than ceph

[Serene]

This does make sense--if there is an SK, it stands to reason that they're likely concerned about Mafia numbers at this point and are shooting for scum. So why impede them?

that's not the point i'm making at all

what i'm saying is that mafia have a tendency to hunt for the SK because they've mentally discounted the fact that they know the person cannot be mafia with them. it's selective scumhunting, and it's always greasy as hell

ie- they want this person lynched, but their inside knowledge biases them from calling them mafia

[Serene]

my question at WHY ROLEBLOCK? was more aimed toward the fact that he's claiming to have roleblocked a TOWNREAD that had CLAIMED VANILLA

[Shadi1337]

Serene, your claim means nothing if he read you scum then he roleblocks you. The funny thing is indeed the fact that he townread you and yet did it. He could be unsure and wanted to confirm you or something.

As for Crab, if he gets lynched then Rift needs to be tunneled next round. Only thing that makes me unsure about that is that Rift is a good player and will deal with eventual questions well.

Rift since when did you think Crab was scum? Don't recall seeing that.

Crabd, the only meta argument you have brought in about me was that I admitted when I was wrong, that cannot be the only thing as that was rounds ago. So what have I done recently that makes me look town according to what you've seen of me meta-wise? There was the reaction testing you did, was there more, but I hadn't been reaction tested like that before so that part couldn't have been meta.

[Rift Adrift]

Rift since when did you think Crab was scum? Don't recall seeing that.

My read on Crabd plummeted after tracking him to orcinus on night 3. My initial reads list that day, I dropped him to null because I was torn about whether to out the track immediately or let the day develop and see if his play lined up with his night action. When DOMO suggested we mass claim, my biggest concern was outing protective roles, but I decided mass claim was the right thing, and I agreed that Crabd should go first because I wanted to see if his claim would match my track.

It did. But, I wouldn't expect him to claim something that could be contradicted by another PR.

Serene's bombshell about fake claiming masons with Dramonic cratered further efforts to sort him.

I should have pushed him harder on day 5, and it came down to worry about my paranoia affecting my reads. I wound up putting too much effort into re-sorting Serene and not enough effort into the other big question marks. The DOMO-->AP replacement totally changed how day 5 developed and ended.

I have a ton of paranoia about Crabd and I've tried to factor that into my reads and not go after him irrationally. But, his play since day 4 just doesn't feel right. He's guarded, and he's not pushing people the way he did earlier in the game. That could be due to coming under more suspicion. But, town is pretty close to do or die here and his play doesn't make sense to me as town in that mindset and that mode of play.

[Shadi1337]

And did you see his play flawless or good with no mistakes prior to D4?

Fyi, I am satisfied with your answer but I want that part covered too.

[Rift Adrift]

And did you see his play flawless or good with no mistakes prior to D4?

Fyi, I am satisfied with your answer but I want that part covered too.

Flawless? No. But I had a decently strong town read. On late day 3, I thought orcinus came off better for their encounter than Crabd did, but I thought the timing was bad - Crabd couldn't really respond until later on the day most of orcinus' csae-building took place. I focused on the player I could read better - orcinus, and Syr focused on Crabd during all that, and then we compared notes. We decided to track Crabd that night in part due to orcinus' case on him.

[StubbsKVM]

Scum: Crabd, Serene, SafetyDance

Scum might not have paid attention and tried to kill Rift, who was still under protection by BS. Or something else.

Either way, I'm fine with lynching any of these 3

[StubbsKVM]

Well, it at least explains why Koopa got shot before Rift.

[BROseidon]

All the same, I still like the Stubbs lynch. Does anyone have a town read on him, and if so, can you elaborate a bit?

Right now it's PoE. Stubbs and Shadi both look sort of bad, but I have much stronger scumreads on Crabd, Serene, and SD, and AP's play today has completely reversed the townread I had on the DOMO slot. If I'm wrong in any of those, Stubbs and Shadi are the first two I'm looking at (unless it's Crabd in which case I'll look at Ank).

[Rift Adrift]

All the same, I still like the Stubbs lynch. Does anyone have a town read on him, and if so, can you elaborate a bit?

Right now it's PoE. Stubbs and Shadi both look sort of bad, but I have much stronger scumreads on Crabd, Serene, and SD, and AP's play today has completely reversed the townread I had on the DOMO slot. If I'm wrong in any of those, Stubbs and Shadi are the first two I'm looking at (unless it's Crabd in which case I'll look at Ank).

Who are you still reading as town?

[Rift Adrift]

[quote="In post 5210, StubbsKVM"]Scum: Crabd, Serene, SafetyDance

Scum might not have paid attention and tried to kill Rift, who was still under protection by BS. Or something else.

Do you see Serene and Crabd on the same team?

[BROseidon]

All the same, I still like the Stubbs lynch. Does anyone have a town read on him, and if so, can you elaborate a bit?

Right now it's PoE. Stubbs and Shadi both look sort of bad, but I have much stronger scumreads on Crabd, Serene, and SD, and AP's play today has completely reversed the townread I had on the DOMO slot. If I'm wrong in any of those, Stubbs and Shadi are the first two I'm looking at (unless it's Crabd in which case I'll look at Ank).

Who are you still reading as town?

You and PA.

[Rift Adrift]

quote tag faiul. final line is my question.

[Rift Adrift]

All the same, I still like the Stubbs lynch. Does anyone have a town read on him, and if so, can you elaborate a bit?

Right now it's PoE. Stubbs and Shadi both look sort of bad, but I have much stronger scumreads on Crabd, Serene, and SD, and AP's play today has completely reversed the townread I had on the DOMO slot. If I'm wrong in any of those, Stubbs and Shadi are the first two I'm looking at (unless it's Crabd in which case I'll look at Ank).

Who are you still reading as town?

You and PA.

For me it's you, PA and shadi (though Syr may disagree re shadi).

I'd like to POE one more person into not-scum-and-not-SK but I'm not sure it's doable.

[PeregrineV]

Vote Count 6-1

(as of Post 5217)

KingCrabd (3)

- BROseidon, Ankamius, Serene

Serene (1)

- KingCrabd

Not Voting (6)

- AngryPidgeon, penguin_alien, Rift Adrift, SafetyDance, Shadi1337, StubbsKVM

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline:

Thursday, September 19 at 10am Central Time ((expired on 2013-09-19 10:01:01))

Replacing:

No one

Prods:

None

V/LAs:

None

[PeregrineV]

@MOD: Can mafia with other actions submit both an action and factional kill on the same night in this game?

What is this, Road to Rome?

In general, players may only perform a single action in a given actionable time period, unless their role PM states otherwise.

[BROseidon]

All the same, I still like the Stubbs lynch. Does anyone have a town read on him, and if so, can you elaborate a bit?

Right now it's PoE. Stubbs and Shadi both look sort of bad, but I have much stronger scumreads on Crabd, Serene, and SD, and AP's play today has completely reversed the townread I had on the DOMO slot. If I'm wrong in any of those, Stubbs and Shadi are the first two I'm looking at (unless it's Crabd in which case I'll look at Ank).

Who are you still reading as town?

You and PA.

For me it's you, PA and shadi (though Syr may disagree re shadi).

I'd like to POE one more person into not-scum-and-not-SK but I'm not sure it's doable.

I'm less sure on Shadi, since he been coasting this whole game. I think a Crabd scumflip would be good enough to put Ank there. BP+OP Doc+Tracker+2-shot Vig+2 shot Cop seems like reasonable power.

[Rift Adrift]

I forgot Ank :/

He has posted so little I forget he's playing at times. But, given confirmation of both his investigations I'm thinking town.

The main problem with Serene's refutation of Crabd's recent posts and his targeting them for a block rests on an assumption that they were still in his townpile after the day 4 debacle.

I don't think that assumption is valid.

But, I don't really believe Crabd's defence makes him town, either.

The mistake he made about how strongly he defended Baezu is meh. I am actually more likely to make that sort of mistake as town because as scum I'm usually pretty compulsive about checking my prior posts for what my stances have looked like before making statements like that.

I'm finding reasons to waffle. And I don't want to waffle the wrong direction again.

[BROseidon]

Serene's assumption isn't valid because of how much of the game is sorted as non-SK. Unless the SK is ninja or you're lying, it's not PA. Unless Crabd is lying about his RB's (which I don't see why he would be if he's SK-hunting), we know it's not Shadi or Stubbs. That doesn't leave many places for the SK to hide.

[Ankamius]

SK hunting is not in our best interests at all right now. It really shouldn't be difficult to find out who it is with a little more information, so there's no real point in doing it right now. Either way, a Crabd lynch at minimum gives us some good info.

If he's a town roleblocker, then Serene and Stubbs are our targets tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

...

That was meant to be a preview hit.

Anyway, if he's scum roleblocker, then the SK is likely one of those two. I'd bet on Stubbs.