Space Monkey Mafia: GAME OVER!

[Fritzler]

Fritz, could you explain why you wanted to know my answer to "If Kleb is scum, who will you block?" I stated it earlier, and I said that I'd make it clear before we went into night so that the town could get info from a nightkill (or lack thereof).

oh, the same thing, that way if you turned up dead as a roleblocker we'd have one confirmed person

[dahen]

Fritz - If Glork turns up dead, then we know that the person Glork blocked didn't make the kill. But that doesn't confirm much unless we only think there is one scum left. Is that you?

Klebian - thanks for the PM answer. It was indeed what I was looking at. VitaminR hinted so heavily at this with his "missed the first round" that I thought anyone would be able to write that weapons might be a difference as you did. Your answer was now enough accurate that I believe that you have the Gorilla Soldier PM.

Since I believe that PJ also has this. This means that if we're looking for a two-scum setup with the assumption that SMs don't have our PM then it must be Fritzler+Glork, but as PJ said, they would have won by now. Frizler as only scum doesn't make sense, so the only possible option from the PM analysis is that Glork is the only scum. This can be good to know if we have a choice tomorrow, but I'll leave the PM's aside now.

We have all said that two scums are likely and based the reasoning on that. That's good. But I think that we also should take a look at the situation if we have only one scum left. In that case if we lynch right we win, but what happens if we mislynch? I'm not saying that is more important then looking at pairings; just that it shouldn't be neglected completely.

We will be 4 with 1 scum left tomorrow. A mislynch then and we lose. No-lynching at that point would bring us to 3 with 1 scum. Who would be left? I believe that PJ and myself would be killed, the rest is dependent on our lynches of course. Could you give this some thought while I drive to work?

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

klebian: 3 (Glork VitaminR dahen)
Glork: 1 (klebian )
VitaminR: 1 (petroleumjelly)

Not voting: Fritzler

With 6 on the bridge it will take 4 to lynch!

[Glork]

Unvote

I'm still pondering PJ's plan. It definitely makes the most sense from his perspective, but the only reason I'm balking is because I still find Kleb/Fritz to be more likely than Kleb/VitR.

[VitaminR]

Except I don't think it is Klebian + Dahen. So there is no point in me including it in the scenarios I think are reasonably feasible.

True, but it also means that you don't have an argument. In fact, you have no argument against me at all other than the fact that you think I'm scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Well, I do have this strange habit of voting for people when I think they're scum.

[VitaminR]

That doesn't bother me (in fact, I think it's a strategy I might try too), but you are presenting your case as if you have evidence, as if it follows logically that I'm scum.

It's a bit misleading.

[petroleumjelly]

Believe it or not, I have mentioned other reasons why I think you are scum. But in any case:

1.) Nightson never did anything. If you expect me to make a compelling case from

nothing

, you can just prepare to be disappointed. So far as I'm concerned, Nightson was a lurking Space Monkey trying to stay out of the way and let the town self-destruct.

2.) You have replaced in on the

last day

. I don't expect anybody replacing in at this juncture of a game to do something so blatantly scummy that they'll get lynched for it. So expecting a compelling case against you is also unreasonable.

Fact is, from my perspective, you fit in with most of the possible scum-group pairings. So I want you dead.

[VitaminR]

I know, PJ. I'm just trying to make that clear.

[petroleumjelly]

How about you tell me what you have done that is

pro-town

? This can apply to anything Nightson has said as well.

[VitaminR]

Slowing discussion down when I got into the game. We were almost looking at a pretty rushed decision there.

Other than that, I've tried to have an objective look at the evidence and not be daunted by the reputations behind them. I've tried to make the right decision and I think I have, but we can't really tell yet.

I think I've been fair in addressing the accusations of me. I haven't dismissed your points and I've tried to give explanations or alternative points of view where I can.

[VitaminR]

As for Nightson, there are four posts that were made after he realised he wasn't scum.

They are:

I was on vacation/couldn't log on to MS for most of day three. But it doesn't really matter because I could have been just laying low because I didn't want to get any suspicion on me. Doesn't matter.

Sorry for scarce posting, I've been busy and sick. I'll post a big post today.

Yes I am sick (you can see a picture of the weird cyst on my arm that is now red and yellow if you want proof, or the five bottles of pills I'm now taking) and coupled with being busy with school I find my time for mafia to be severely curtailed. I don't want to have to ask for replacement because I know there's precious few replacements to be had since the crashes. But my contributions are going to have to be when I have time and when I'm coherent enough to post.

Tonight I'm feeling decent so I think I can manage to post in at least a few games.

Post coming tomorrow (just to reassure people that I'm here)

Wanted to separate these, they are from four different posts. Can't really tell anything from this.

And yes, your method for finding the real scum was flawed, if you just look for scum tells from people from days 1-3 you aren't going to find the real scum you're just going to find everyone who thought they were scum. In fact if you aren't getting any scum vibes, it just means they're good at hiding their scumminess. If you want to say that you think I was acting like someone who knew what was going on then make that case, but just making cases based off traditional scumtells for the first three days is pointless at best and distracting and scummy at worst.

This is pro-townish, it's not a bad point.

The don't seem that scummy to me so he's probably scum. Seriously, I'm horrible at reading Glork, when I think he's sure to me mafia he's town and when I'm convinced of his townieness he turns up scum. So with that grain of salt, I'd say the one thing that did strike me as kind of scummy was the way he talks about the possibility of you being scum. (Not because you can't be scum but because he seems to want to cast suspicion on you without actually taking a stand on it)

That's not terribly big post but I'm afraid I don't have a great deal more to contribute right now. I think that there's a lot of information that we simply don't have because the first three days were spent with everyone thinking they were scum, then with the MC lynch we didn't learn much because MC was such an easy lynch.

However Thok's investigation results make up for the information lost at least partly.

I'm a little sketchy on the number crunching (head is starting to hurt again) but even with three scum left we would need two straight mislynches to lose. With only five candidates to choose from, it seems unlikely hat we'll hit the only two townies among the five unconfirmed. Hopefully of course, we'll have no mislynches.

Right now I'm actually leaning towards fritz likely being scum. I'll review his posts and then probably make a vote.

Fairly useless as a post. He only makes one observation, on Glork. I suppose that's sort of useful. He doesn't give reasons for his suspicions of Fritzler.

So, to summarise, I think he did very little that was pro-town.

[petroleumjelly]

Let's see...

Klebian + VitaminR

Klebian + Glork

Unlikely

Klebian + Dahen

Unlikely

Klebian + Fritzler

VitaminR + Glork

VitaminR + Dahen

VitaminR + Fritzler

Unlikely

Glork + Dahen

Unlikely

Glork + Fritzler

Pretty much impossible

Dahen + Fritzler

Unlikely

Really, it comes down to this

1.) Either Klebian or Glork are scum (unless VitaminR + Dahen); and
2.) Either VitaminR or Fritzler are scum

I think lynching one of Klebian or Glork today is fairly stupid.

->

A.)

If we lynch Klebian as town, then Glork is scum, and the game ends automatically (assuming two scum, naturally).
->

B.)

If we lynch Glork as town, then the scum will win (since town will have no method left in which to stop a kill).

Lynching one of VitaminR or Fritzler is the play today.

->

A.)

If we lynch VitaminR as town, then the town still has the

chance

that Glork is town. And if that is true, then so far as I'm concerned, the scum are {Fritzler, Klebian}. This would give Glork a 50% chance at role-blocking correctly.
->

B.

If we lynch Fritzler as town, then the town still has the

chance

that Glork is town. And if that is true, the scum are {VitaminR, Klebian}. This would give Glork a 50% chance at role-blockng correctly.

But

Unvote: VitaminR

for discussion purposes.

[petroleumjelly]

EBWOP:

I suppose I'll change this to make VitaminR happy.

-> A.) If we lynch Klebian as town, then

if

Glork is town, he still has a chance at blocking scum {VitaminR + Dahen}.

^ Fact is, Dahen + VitaminR seems fairly unlikely, but not

so

unlikely that I would cross it off the list entirely. I'm more in the mindset that if Klebian is town, Glork is scum.

[VitaminR]

Thanks, PJ.

Why are klebian + dahen & Glork + dahen unlikely, btw?

Did I miss something?

[Glork]

PJ can correct me if I'm wrong, but he seems to be of the mindset that because Dahen tried to use flavor-confirmation, he is more likely to be pro-town.

On the other hand, I would argue that if the scums have a Soldier PM (or, at the very least, heavy Gorilla flavor) -- which is likely, given that Klebian, Dahen, and VitR have all cited accurate Soldier flavor and Glork/Fritz is impossible as a scumpair -- then it would make sense to use that flavor proactively. See if you can get a townie to slip up (and go for mislynch) and see if you can get your partner (and yourself) "confirmed."

I should make it clear that I think that Dahen is more likely to be pro-town than Fritz, Klebian, or VitaminR, but *not* because of his confirmation behavior. That's something that I would absolutely have tried myself if I were scum with Soldier flavor/PM.

[petroleumjelly]

Hold it, Glork.

If Space Monkeys

are

given Gorilla flavor, I would expect (since I definitely would have done this had I been in such a position) for at least one of them to "crumb" being a Gorilla Traitor. And since you keep calling Dahen a "deliberate player", I can imagine he had plenty of time before placing his crumbs to think over how to place them, and how they could affect perceptions of him later in the game.

Why are klebian + dahen & Glork + dahen unlikely, btw?

1.) Because I have seen many people bus their partners, and I have had to bus useless partners in the past (*coughGLORKcough*). As such, I have attained somewhat of a feel for what busing via trying to get one's partner to make a mistake you can hammer specificially (to make yourself look more protown in the process) looks like. I don't think the interactions between Klebian and Dahen support this.

2.) I find Glork + Dahen unlikely based on their general interactions; it's easy to see connections (each of them calling each other town, etc), but the way Glork expressed not knowing Gorilla Role PM's while Dahen

did

(and particularly, that Dahen was the one pushing that agenda) suggests to me that they would either have to be very well coordinated [certainly possible, but with my experience with Glork-scum, he sucks at coordinating with his partners this intricately] or not working together at all. I find the latter much more probable.

[Cardinal Ibelly]

Also, let's have a raising of hands:

How many people have forgotten that Klebian was

investigated innocent

by Thok? You realize that by voting Klebian, you necessarily think:

A.) That there is a Godfather; and
B.) That the Space Monkeys were given Gorilla role PMs

This seems to be largely not part of anybody's analysis of the game any more except mine, so I wanted to make sure that's brought back to your collective attentions.

[petroleumjelly]

^ That's what I get for thinking about things while trying to make vote counts in other games. Apologies.

[Glork]

I'm confused now, PJ.

Earlier (yet still after we postulated that Space Monkeys could have Soldier PMs), you stated this:

And if Glork is scum, then Fritzler is not his partner, which pretty much leaves Dahen (which is more than possible, but the whole "let's compare role PM's" skit makes me doubt that), or VitaminR (making him the correct lynch again).

You stated that you thought that Dahen's role/flavor comparison bit made him more likely to be pro-town.

That is exactly the sentiment that I said you had expressed, and I pointed out that scum would probably try to do this if they had a Soldier PM.

Yet now you're stating that you would

expect

somebody to have breadcrumbed a Traitor role -- which I completely agree with. In fact, I think I even said something along the lines of "If Space Monkeys expected Gorillas to think they were Traitors [role PM or not], I would guess that at least one would breadcrumb having been a Traitor."


Could you make your stance on Dahen more clear? I have no idea what you're trying to say. You defended him based on the "role comparison" bit, and when I said "I think PJ thinks Dahen is pro-town because of the flavor comparison, but that's not why I think he's pro-town, because I would expect a decent scumbag to try this," you're telling me to "hold it"?

[petroleumjelly]

Nope. I'm confirmed innocent. I get to say whatever I want. You're the one who has to watch what you say, not me.

So what do you think of Dahen?

[Glork]

I was just confused as to why you'd say "hold it, Glork" and then proceed to agree with me. I figured it was mere carelessness, that maybe you misinterpreted my post or didn't read it carefully. Despite what you say, being a confirmed innocent doesn't give you a license to say "whatever you want." You seem to be a little careless today, considering you made up attacks against me based on "inconsistent claims" that I never made, and I wanted to check your logic here. I don't care if you don't spell out what you're thinking to me or not; I just want to make sure that you're staying on the ball.


Re Dahen:
Post 1041 is a pretty good start. I also just stated that I find Dahen to be more pro-town than VitR/Klebian/Fritz right now, and I've said at least twice that I find Dahen's play to be somewhat similar to the end of Mini 358. Unfortunately, as I have also pointed out, I don't have a decent Dahenscum frame of reference to help balance my opinion of him. My stance regarding Dahen should be abundantly clear if you're paying attention to what I say.

[petroleumjelly]

Oh? I'm more on the ball than you think.

I agree that Dahen is probably pro-town, so by mere process of elimination, I'm looking at a scumgroup of Fritz, Twito, and Nightson unless there are Godfather-esque factors involved (in which case, I'm actually looking at Klebian now, rather than PJ, as I'm less confident that scums would be given a full Gorilla Soldier PM). Out of everybody, I'm most comfortable with a Nightson lynch, followed by lynches on Twito and Fritz.

Glork, you never once talked about Dahen whatsoever (after the Gorilla revelation) until this post. So you started off by saying Dahen is "probably pro-town" with no reasoning behind it.

Your other posts about Dahen looked like this:

In other news, I'd

REALLY

like to hear from Dahen soon. I know he's had limited access recently, but he has been surprisingly quiet as of late.

Dear Dahen,

You posted in nearly all of your games in the past day, yet you seem to be neglecting this one. Why is that? Do you not like us? Are you hoping to lurk your way to victory? What are your thoughts?

XOXO,
Glork

Dahen, where is your post?

Then when asked about Dahen, we have:

I think that his earlier hint-dropping is a huge plus for him, and I think that he's attempted to be much more helpful than either Nightson or Fritzler.

Funny! Now hint-dropping means nothing, and I think "being helpful" in LyLo situations is a null tell. Scum are guaranteed to try to be as "helpful" as humany possible if it secures a win.

The only one I'd really give serious consideration to is the "Dahen might be a Space Monkey traitor" notion. I suppose we have to consider the possibility that scum might have recruited a traitor N4. That would certainly be throwing me in for a loop. I want to hear from Dahen on this matter.

Let's see... "let's hear from Dahen"! This seems to be a running theme for Glork.

I also doubt that the scums were given a sample Townie PM. Like I indicated earlier in the game, Stoof traditionally gives a Townie win condition, but I certainly don't expect him to give them any more information by which they could easily "confirm" themselves. We've had enough trouble discerning scum from town as is, and giving the sucms the ability to quote soldier-ness and traitor-esque flavor/clauses is a little overboard, IMO.

Hmm... so Space Monkeys

don't

have Gorilla PMs according to Glork...

And oh my! Look at this:

Now that I think about it, I suppose a very clever SM-Dahen might have gone "Hmm, I bet the townspeople all think that they're Traitors. I'll drop hints as if I'm one, too." But my gut is telling me that this is not the case. No offense to Dahen, but I don't think he's that clever; it's something I might have seen from, say, CES... but not Dahen.

I thought you

just said

you would

expect

Dahen to do this. Gee gosh willickers, I'd better check!

I should make it clear that I think that Dahen is more likely to be pro-town than Fritz, Klebian, or VitaminR, but *not* because of his confirmation behavior. That's something that I would absolutely have tried myself if I were scum with Soldier flavor/PM.

Well that's strange... first, you doubted that Dahen would be clever enough to drop crumbs and hence that made him more likely to be pro-town - but now it's apparently not a factor. And you are now citing "other reasons", which is left entirely vague. So let's find them.

There are two other things that make me think that Dahen is probably town. First of all, he hasn't played as though he's pseudo-confirmed, which is what I'd expect a scumbag to do. In his most recent analysis, for example, he included his own voting/posting records in his most recent analysis. His play also vaguely reminds me of Mini 358, the last game we were in together. His most recent post in particular reminds me of the way he would talk with Devo and myself, when he *was* a confirmed innocent.

1.) Dahen has not been investigated, so of course he is not going to act pseudo-confirmed regardless of his role.

Nobody

is or has acted confirmed except

me

, and that's because I

am

confirmed.
2.) Do you seriously think Dahen would play

differently

in this game given that you have had another experience with him in a very long endgame? If he is scum, he is probably going to try to match his play as consistently as possible as with that other game. Players do tend to try to act consistent with prior behavior so they are harder to read.

In other words, I don't really agree with either of your reasons here.

Basically, my conclusion, PJ: Based on Nightson's posts so far, I find it entirely possible that he's scum, but not enough to put him ahead of Friztler or Dahen right now, and certainly not enough to put him above Klebian. I will look at VitaminR's posts later.

Funny. You seem to have been giving the impression of Dahen being the most likely Gorilla up to this point, but here you imply that Nightson is not scummy enough to make him scummier than Dahen.

So far as your Post 1041 goes, you really have nothing to indicate why you think Dahen is pro-town.

To be frank, your posts are giving me the impression that you are trying to play up your past experience with Dahen so that he thinks you're town, while having also tried to make VitaminR/Nightson an "option" the entire game (you offered to hammer Nightson once - and it never happened), but only in such a way that you have completely avoided Nightson/VitaminR lynches the entire game.

[petroleumjelly]

Oh, right, I should make this more clear.

Do you or don't you think Dahen would be "clever enough" to drop Traitor hints as a Space Monkey?

[petroleumjelly]

Oh yes, let's go further. Sometimes my fingers don't type everything I'm thinking about, I thought I had made this clearer as well.

1.) Dahen has not been investigated, so of course he is not going to act pseudo-confirmed regardless of his role. Nobody is or has acted confirmed except me, and that's because I am confirmed.

Alternatively, Klebian

has

been investigated, and

he

has never once acted like a pseudo-confirmed innocent. Does that make him more likely to be town?

2.) Do you seriously think Dahen would play differently in this game given that you have had another experience with him in a very long endgame? If he is scum, he is probably going to try to match his play as consistently as possible as with that other game. Players do tend to try to act consistent with prior behavior so they are harder to read.

Additionally, since you have no "dahenscum frame" from which to work, I fail to see how playing consistently across two games can hold this much weight.

Note: To be honest, though, I know that I have also used one-game experiences in order to get reads on people (you might as well use whatever information you have), but judging a player on how they act in an endgame situation in particular seems particularly silly: scum are going to try to look as town as humanly possible in endgames, and if playing similarly to past games is what is necessary, it will be done.