Disclaimer, if you at any point in this post start thinking about wifom, stop reading or dont respond to my post.
Long post, maybee last post. Read it or dont read it, I dont care. I do this for myself to know that I did what I could.
Some basic stuff first, I will be using probability to end up with my solution, thus there will be no "its him, its not him", but an end result, in %, of every player to have a certain role. Since this is a open setup we know that from start any given player has a
20 % chance to be scum (4/20)
5 % chance to be SK (1/20)
75 % chance to be town (15/20)
So if i say that someone is less likely to be scum I mean that the players actions has made the likelyhood drop from the original mark. Try to think of it like that which has happened in this game occurs the exact same way 100 times. Then try to think about how a players actions, thus far, has affected his/her chances to be role x.
-----
For example, player
X
is
25 %
chance to be scum (4/20)
5 % chance to be SK (1/20)
70 %
chance to be town (15/20)
According to these numbers
X
is likelier to be town than scum
X
has been scummy this game, not towny. (He/she is no longer at 75% chance to be town)
-----
Maenara
In my eyes she is the one that made the day 1 lynch of BoroPhil happen. She advocated it loudly.
I am sure some of you will think "ah, but that is the perfect scum play, I bet maenara is scum" and this is not the approach we should take. We have to ask ourself "how likely maenara is to bus a teammate like this", and not "how good of a scum play this is".
Now if a player is known to bus teammates hard, couse this is some curbstomp bussing if so, then we cant really rule it out, or atleast not take away as much likelyhood % from the scum culumn. I have been trying to read old games of her but she apparantly never rands scum. No matter, i will just assume that she is "normal" when it comes to bussing, thus coming to the conclussion that this makes it unlikely for maenara to be scum.
Really the only occassions I see this happening in is if Borophil realizes at the start of the game that he cant play, and instead of subbing out he and maenara plots some sort of bussing scheme to make the most out of it.
I also think that maenaras general "I am smarter than you" attitude further increases her likelyhood to be town.
Conclusion: Maenara is
Scum 5%
SK 5%
( I would say that this has dropped abit too but whatever.)
Town 90 %
Titus
Titus has been a core town player of mine since the early game. Unlike Maenara its not a distinct moment or action but it has more or less been an "overall tone and approach" thing. I have disagreed with her about alot of things, but I have belived that she belives what she is preaching. However, 2 sentences doesnt really do this, truly epic, post justice, so I started reading some of her past games to get a feel for how her scum game differs from her town game.
(When I read games I try to read it without knowing the players alignment, making notes along the way, then after a few games i try to see if I can draw any conclusions). I "read"(past tense).
Titus is, as town, a fucking beast of a woman, and unfortunately taken. She swears, calls people idiots. This description is not fair but I am not trying in any way to make Titus out to be some sort of evil spawn, this is just what I made notes of when I read the games that later turned out to be town. (I find it superduperultrahot).
So, wtf am I talking about really? I am talking about how I percieve her mindset. Let me demonstrate.
(Before you open the spoiler and go "ah shucks, svenskt is retarded wtf I am not reading this", I have bolded and enlarged the important parts, skim throu it.)
rather than be pro-town, you'll always be playing anti-town. You should know I don't go for easy. I go for scummy.
In post 181, Titus wrote:That fence makes no sense unless I totally misunderstood his statements.
*grabs gun and proceeds to shoot self in foot*
CC says he doesn't understand why people are voting for me but says everything I say sounds contrived. If that is accurate, it would be a damn good reason to vote me.
Later he says Titus and ns are slight scum and town reads respectively. Yet, if he has me as a scum read, then why can't he understand people voting for me?
The post is utterly incoherent to the point where I'm highly suspecting buddying.
In post 200, Titus wrote:@Stubbs/Elyse, Elyse is totally misreading my emotions. She is mistaking anger for nervousness.
I don't handle idiotic statements well
, benefit or penalty to myself. Hence why I highlighted the obvious errors in CCs posts. Elyse also highlights my chainsawing/opportunism vote call out as scummy which makes no sense. This is before he has any opportunity to defend himself. The game has progressed beyond RVS stage. The response by Elyse allows the group to move the game backwards and at the same time discredit me and boost a player who hasn't posted at all. Elyse also says I'm eager to divert attention onto anyone else. Again, that's total bullshit. I don't know whether Elyse is trying and just totally reading me wrong or deliberately misreading me.
In post 206, CuddlyCaucasian wrote:This is probably going to be a rude post since I'm pissed off from school.
People like you, Titus, are the reason I quit playing mafia games. I only joined this one because Bowser is modding and I like the theme. But I don't see how I'm supposed to have any fun at all when people call my posts idiotic and act like they've never made a mistake. It's usually just a few people, but these elitist jerks make me nauseous. /rant over
When I said I didn't understand why people were voting Titus, it was because they HADN'T GIVEN REASONS. Simple as that. I couldn't know if they shared the same opinions about him that I did, so I was just wondering, you don't have to insult me as a person for it. Regardless, Titus is continuing to give weak reasoning for any reads he has so VOTE: Titus
(Btw maybe instead of referring to posts as "bullshit" and "idiotic", you could show people some respect, and maybe they'll give you some in return, huh? How about "I don't see/don't understand the logic in your post, explain it more so I can be sure about my opinion before jumping to the first thought that pops in my mind")
I am sorry you felt insulted as a person from my post. Your post however was incoherent. That is NOT a personal attack. Rather it was a fact. I have made my fair share of mistakes and I do not mind being called out on this. I did say your statements were idiotic, and that may have been over the top. I apologize for that. However, bullshit wasn't directed at you. Calling someone out for lying/misrepping/saying something untrue inadvertently will all likely cause me to say the player is spewing bullshit. That however was directed at Elyse.
I apologize if this ruined your enjoyment.
My playstyle is direct and honest however. I take it as well as I dish it. Conflict helps me determine if people believe what they say. Please don't take anything on a personal level.
I generally don't put my gender in my profile because I find people view me as more credible if they think I am a man.
I do not wish to debate this point as it is irrelevant to the game.
In post 905, Titus wrote:@Elyse, Post 193 I replied to. So I didn't ignore your case at all. Yet, you claim I did.
That case is bullshit anyway
, right near ns's so called case. The cases boil down to me being upset with bad lynches.
THERE IS NOTHING ON ME BEING BEING PISSED THERE IS NOTHING ON ME! GO AHEAD!
I asked you to provide specific content. You dodge the question.
@NS, Cool, I can sit at the town table with ETL and Chkflip. Although Chkflip probably doesn't want to sit there because his slot's position on my scumminess. I am waiting your response on 902.
Also, are you seriously asking me what my case is on? What my latest post is based on in 901? I do not know what you mean by "this".
Summary, how does the above games stack up with this one.
So. I am quite shocked actually, Because this is not what we have seen in this game. I remember someone questioning her gender but I mean, all swearing and shit? Hm.
Okay so lets see what Titus has done this game.
(Going in with the thought that you MIGHT have found scum is dangerous couse you know, you start putting stuff where it fits, but I´ll do my best).
1. I remember when Loran claimed to have a scum in rach/titus/me/dj. Titus had rach as town, her read seemed wierd at the time. I couldnt understand how a villager had rach as anything above null, and if Titus was scum then she should push rach as scum couse its an easy lynch. But what if they were both scum?
Enter Titus, (try to vision the girl from all the qoutes I did.)
Rach, Titus, Sven, DJ - I checked one of you last night and it came up guilty, not fucking around this time. I'd like a complete list of your reads before I announce today's lynch. Thank you.
I saw the request for reads. I will be typing them up in a moment after I finish catching up. I'll do conclusions with brief sentences. If anyone wants elaboration, just ask. Ranking the possible guilties I would go
Stal
Dj
Rach
Titus
In post 1925, Titus wrote:aptil - Strong town read. Seems like a novice but I see logical thought. The fact she was bp's counter seems pretty town too.
Brian Skies - Leaning scum but may have site flaked.
Can we get a prod?
Don_johnson - Slight scum read. He is kind smooth.
Loranthaceae - The cop. Better have a guilty this tome or else.
JacobSavage - He is dangerously close to policy lynch levels. Null due to lack of content. Not happy here.
jmo16mla - This seems more like his town game rather than scum game. Lean town.
RachMarie - Seems town enough but needs to resolve the personal stuff.
Rainbowdash - Town town town
Skullduggery - Strong townlean here
Svenskt Stål - Scum. Associative tells. Opens Day 2 with an attempt to divert suspicion.
Manera - Earlier she looked scum but her role in BP's lynch was pretty town.
Titus - Town.
uctriton00 - Very slight town read. There's nothing great about what he is posting but I don't see anything too scummy either.
Summary
Maybee its the bloood I scent but NOTHING of this seems right, and I question some of it as it happends. She is obidient, she knows about rach having personal stuff (scum qt), she thinks Lorans guilty is "plausible". Yeah, this does not seem like the beast that is town Titus.
2 Lets take a look at what she thought about the BP lynch.
In post 943, Svenskt Stål wrote:I still dont agree on borophil but I dont have the stregth to make a large wall and i fear time is against me aswell. Making 10 players trust me and vote with me seems futile.
VOTE: borophil
How do you get from this to there is plenty of time?
Answer, it is not logical. Stal is trying to prevent his scumbuddy from being lynched.
In post 1051, Titus wrote:DJ, we will team up to get Wake or Stal tomorrow. Today, we need to get a lynch off. Wake won't have the juice. Sorry.
Summary
Okay this doesnt really make sense, she votes BP but its not her first choice... thats somewhat strange. I try to derail everything when I start pushing Aptil and what does she do? She argues with me. So this doesnt seem scummy, strange but not scummy. SK becaomes very much likely, also remembering her hardcharge on wake and that he was SK... Maybee thats some sort of something. Yeah.
Conclussion: Titus is
Scum 30%
SK 35%
(I think whatever she does as scum she does as SK, both have the same "omg I need to hide, dont kill me" mentality. Would also fit her BP stance better.
Town 35%
Fixed spoiler tags. ~~NS
Last edited by Nobody Special on Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
