titus: an sk claim might stay jmo's execution. it is something maenara and I discussed. that's what that is about.
jmo: so you are voting titus with me, but your latest post seems to be attempting to implicate maenara and myself. looks a little desperate. you have not been a scum read of mine, but maenara's case of "indifference" is pretty convincing for sk. couple that with this latest turn, and I don't see how I can defense your lynch. no one seems to be going for the titus case. if you are scum, I would have to rethink my titus case.
In post 2252, Titus wrote:Maenara: Why does the last part make you think town? Conflicting with town doesn't make someone town.
Sure it does. Place multiple opinionated, outspoken, aggressive people in enclosed confines, and give them reason to be suspicious of one another. Who do you expect to be engaged in the loudest disagreements; the people who know what's going on, or the people who suspect everybody of being out to get them?
Now she's in purple, now she's the turtle~
"I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it."
And @Leashing, I still think it could work. If he claims SK and the kill doesn't take place as we direct it to, then we lynch him tomorrow without compromise. It's that simple. We can tell who the SK attacked, after all, so there's no chance for mafia to hide there - not to mention that even if there were, the
real
SK would then be able to finish them off. It gives us an extra lynch, and I see literally no way it could backfire on us, except if something outrageously inane happened, like a VT CCing SK.
Now she's in purple, now she's the turtle~
"I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it."
In post 2251, don_johnson wrote:jmo: so you are voting titus with me, but your latest post seems to be attempting to implicate maenara and myself. looks a little desperate. you have not been a scum read of mine, but maenara's case of "indifference" is pretty convincing for sk. couple that with this latest turn, and I don't see how I can defense your lynch. no one seems to be going for the titus case. if you are scum, I would have to rethink my titus case.
OR you're scum and are just going to try to lynch me.
I was throwing that out there so that everyone can look at you two once I'm dead and gone. Of course both of you will just say that I was horrible townie and that I should have been lynched no matter what. It bothered me that Manera still ignored my post about her twice. Shes got me blocked off as permanent scum and there is no retraction to that. But I just wanted to let you know that the above reasoning you gave, made you look shitty. I'm not desperate, I've got nothing to lose. I still don't see why potentially WIFOMing scum would be hurtful to town.
Assume jmo is the SK and we leash him. He is then not in our lynch-x2-pool. 7 people left.
Every townie knows themselves to not be scum. 6 people left.
My Probability Theory & Statistics course doesn't start until tomorrow, but that
should
, even to my addled mind, be 1-(2/3)*3/5 = 1-6/15 = 9/15 chance of hitting at least scum
at random
. And honestly, I should hope that we could play above random.
P-EDIT:
@jmo: No, I'm telling ArcAngel to actually read the thread, at least the last few pages, or GTFO. Not because of you. Because of her. Specifically. There's a chance I might have been willing to restate things for someone else, but I've had it with ArcAngel not reading things.
Now she's in purple, now she's the turtle~
"I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it."
And about your damn post about me, I told you, I didn't read it the first time around, and I forgot it after that. Coming back to it now, after you've said what you have about the vote-jumping, it's obvious what you mean, and it's also obvious why you're wrong.
Now she's in purple, now she's the turtle~
"I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it."
I will do that anyways.. I asked you becuz you asked me to vote JMO. If you hadn't asked me to sheep you, I would haven't asked at all.
Next time.. Tone it down girl!!!
In post 2258, Maenara wrote:And about your damn post about me, I told you, I didn't read it the first time around, and I forgot it after that. Coming back to it now, after you've said what you have about the vote-jumping, it's obvious what you mean, and it's also obvious why you're wrong.
In post 2247, Maenara wrote:. Yes, of course I bloody did. In case you forgot, the whole
point
of the end of that day was that we were running out of time, and were desperate to just get
some
lynch through. I freaking tried for ages to get BoroPhil lynched, but it just so happened that Rampage, Johnson and Stål were three of the most active people at the time, and all of them preferred Aptil to BoroPhil, so I jumped in an attempt to get
some
lynch through. It wasn't as if Aptil wasn't a viable freaking candidate as well.
Of course, all this would be apparent to anyone who had read the thread, but at current time, this seems to mean
nobody
.
Now she's in purple, now she's the turtle~
"I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it."
Assume JMO SK and 2 mafia left. Nine players alive.
Assuming we leash JMO, then he has 2/8ths or one in four shot of shooting scum if shooting at random.
If he shoots town and we mislynch and the mafia don't shoot JMO or the SK(worst case scenario), then we are left with 2 mafia, SK and 3 town. That's not an ideal position at all and leaves us in a position where we cannot lynch JMO or we are endgamed. We just don't have the bodies to leash him. I cannot get behind that plan.
titus: you are so obvscum to me that its ridiculous. there is no downside to leashing sk at this point. sk is gunning for scum and scum is gunning for sk. if claiming sk is jmo's only chance for survival, then one of three things happen. 1) jmo claims sk but is town. 2) jmo claims sk but is scum. 3) jmo claims sk and is sk.
1) jmo does not get lynched. scum nk's him, elminating a town liability but not wasting a lynch. if we run someone else up and get an sk counterclaim, then we will likely believe we have two scum(anti-town faction) caught, as a townie is unlikely to cc sk, however, jmo's alignment could very well be determined through the resulting discussion if he is in fact town.
2) real sk is likely to target jmo for nk at some point, or will be over the top in trying to get jmo lynched. this also applies to scenario one. in fact, titus' insistence to lynch jmo regardless of claim is a HUGE scumtell imo. a jmo mafiaflip would obviously dispel my scumtitus theory, but at this point I believe more likely than not that jmo is either sk or town. unlikely to be scum. so #2 kind of leads into number 3.
3) jmo lives, scum nk's him, ridding town of the sk. chance of lynching mafia today increases, jmo most likely takes a shot at scum at night, because sk's usually don't try and assist mafia. a cc means we have caught scum. etc. if jmo is in fact sk, then mafia will be urgently trying to get him lynched to avoid getting stabbed at night.
if jmo is town or sk. titus is most assuredly scum.
can we lynch titus first, assume jmo is sk and ask him to stab JS/Aptil/AA9?
that may be a little confusing, but I think you should be able to get the point. if jmo is scum or town claiming sk, sk will be gunning for him. if jmo is sk or town claiming sk, scum will be gunning for him.
I'm not one to suppose what the scum and the SK will do. That worst case scenario I presented is beneficial to both town and the SK. The scums, provided that JK is telling the truth, can NK him whenever they want. If JMO is lying scum, we've stopped him from killing because we lynched him. If JMO is town, we gain a hell of a lot of information and the pieces start to fit together.
I'm not risking getting into another game like Dr. Who's Last Great Time War.
We lynch the scummy anti-town player, First. Period.
that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. your basically saying we should avoid "thinking" and just lynch an anti-town player. our goal is to win. by not speculating on what scum and sk will or will not do, we allow them to aid in making our decisions which increases their individual chances of winning. which is pretty fucking anti-town. so by your own thought process, we should be lynching you.
unvote, vote:titus
jmo, if you are sk, stab into aptil/JS/AA9/antihero, k?
now would you all just please for the love of all that is holy, please please please please please just listen to me?
HELL NO! I NEVER EVER EVER SAY AVOID THINKING. That's one hell of a misrepresentation.
Stating the worst case scenario, lynching the SK to avoid it is VERY FUCKING PRO TOWN.
You just seem hellbent on not lynching JMO. You basically backed off from wanting his claim once it was clear I was going to want him lynched, regardless of what he claimed given the nature of this setup. We cannot afford to leash the SK. Period.
I agree with Titus here. Whilst I would have supported leashing earlier in the game the fact that its 6:2:1 mean that we wouldn't be able to lynch the SK tommorrow: 3:2:1 -> 3:2 at Night -> Scum win)
JS, your math is wrong and does not take into account the obvious variables. see below.
titus: your insistence on sk hunting makes it obvious you are scum. your ties to rachmarie which began long before she started airing her personal problems and continued for the duration of this game, make it obvious you are a likely partner. jmo's behavior is much more sk-like than mafia-like. maenara's inability to flex on that lynch is mildly suspicious, but his agreement to not lynch with an sk claim makes perfect sense. by lynching the sk, town is doing the mafia's dirty work and making a mafia win way more accessible. if we lynch mafia, town's chances of winning increase exponentially due to the near certainty of a crosskill or at the very least, one anti-town faction taking care of the other at night. thus leaving town only one lynch to win. there is no misrep here. you are asking us to ignore useful thought processes. I am not nor have been "hell-bent" on not lynching jmo. in fact, I placed him to L-1 and left him there long enough for anyone to hammer. his "I may be the sk" claim is good enough for me to proceed with lynching more likely mafia candidates: namely you.
its not a misrep. you just said it yourself. but whatevz.
you still have not addressed the breadcrumb issue which should be evidence beyond a shadow of a doubt that I am not mafia. seriously, why do you keep ignoring the interaction with me and skull, the breadcrumb, and the obvious mutual understanding.
hint: its because you are scum. you are pushing jmo over me because you think he's the sk, and by lynching the sk, you can save your nightkills for townie players like me, maenara, and sven. sorry, but I can't let that happen.
Maenara: please address this situation. your inflexibility here is increasing my paranoia about you, and I have been really getting into the idea of you me and sven as a fantastic town core to move forward here. if we lynch the sk, we are giving scum the upper hand in a big way.
My townreads include Mae (who's been productively scumhunting this entire time), Sven (the rage quit looks genuine to me, and it's something he probably wouldn't do as scum), don (it looks to me like he really believes in this Titus read), and jacobsavage (gut).
scream at me all you want but jmo is scum, and now he's muddying the waters with all the SK crap (which, as groupscum, he would completely have incentive to claim with the asinine "leash the SK" argument floating around).
The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success.
@Johnson, I'm not sure what you want me to address. I think you're town, so I'm obviously not going to go along with Titus' little escapade, but I don't want Titus lynched either, yet. Yeah, they're feeling
massively
off today, but they've been doing solidly until now. JMO crucially hasn't been willing to claim SK, so the whole leashing plan sorta is going down the drain.
I think perhaps the most important thing to focus on would be Jacob's completely stupendous course of action there, in voting for you. Jacob, there is no way that Johnson is today's lynch, and if you're so in agreement with Titus, why aren't you voting for JMO?
At the moment, I'm sorta mostly waiting for a replacement for Stål. Missing out on your just-about-confirmed townie is sort of a big deal.
Now she's in purple, now she's the turtle~
"I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it."
