Newbie 1449: Return of the Van [Game Over!]

[Nobody Special]

Also, I don't offhand recall playing with you-scum, but I am positive I've modded you-scum. And this is it, I'm pretty sure.

I need to go look (but that won't be until late tonight).

[Grimgroove]

Let me help you:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Grimgroove

I've been non-town in a total of four games. You were involved in none of them.

You are comparing my behavior to something that doesn't even exist, namely a game where I was scum and that you were involved in.

[Trisania]

^Regarding your previous game where you hinted at being PR:

I couldn't even tell you were already crumbing. And the so-called "soft claim" you did in this game is way too obvious to be your style of crumbing. So you're obviously not the doctor.

[Untrod Tripod]

Votecount 2.2

Cervantes - 1 (Trisania)
Grimgroove - 2 (thiscantgowrong, hayatoBL)
Nobody Special
hatatoBL
thiscantgowrong - 1 (Grimgroove)
Trisania
WBOCampfire1104

Not Voting - 3 (Cervantes, Nobody Special, WBO)

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch. Deadline is 11/28 at 5PM EST.

[WBOCampfire1104]

Hello. Sorry I've been absent for the last couple of days. While trying to catch up, my browser crashed when trying to open page 10, but none others. Could someone please sum it up? I saw people thinking I was with GrimGroove - I haven't had any interaction with him, just me stating he has good posts. Not going to vote now. If FoSs still count, I still have some on Cervantes and hayatoBL.

Un-FoS: hayato and Cervanes

[Untrod Tripod]

Cervantes is getting replaced.

[Grimgroove]

prod dodge, but nothing much going on here. Don't know what people are waiting for here.

[hayatoBL]

@ Grim
Now, I understand how to do soft claims. If I hadn’t been looking for Town Deputy’s crumbs, I wouldn’t have seen it! A good one.

Well, if you could have soft-claim so well, it would mean that you weren’t soft-claiming in this game at all.


UNVOTE: Grimgroove

I’ll reassess and put my vote elsewhere, later.

About that statement in bold: I was reminding you where we didn't finished discussing.

@IC\SE
I don’t get it. Shouldn’t one always vote with the intention to lynch? That’s why I was against 2nd choice votes.

@NS Why would you vote Grim and then unvote it, after you realized that it was L-1?

[Nobody Special]

Because I don't want the day to end this early, and that allowed scum to potentially quickhammer.

[Grimgroove]

Let me help you:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Grimgroove

I've been non-town in a total of four games. You were involved in none of them.

You are comparing my behavior to something that doesn't even exist, namely a game where I was scum and that you were involved in.

Nobody Special, please respond to this. you claimed to be postive that you modded me-scum. And you even claimed to see resemblances with my scumplay here.
Yet you haven't seen my scumplay.

VOTE: Nobody Special

Call it a motivational vote. Do you have any other reads on people? You don't want to end the day, but you're not doing much to move it forward either.

[Trisania]

UNVOTE: Cervantes

Because he is getting replaced, which obviously explains that his inactivity is due to real-life concerns, and not because of trying to stay under the radar as scum. I also want to see how his replacement plays and observe how he interacts with us before scum-reading him.

Which brings me to the next person that I'm suspecting: GIF/Nobody Special. No offense to NS, but your predecessor's post didn't contribute much to scum-hunting. His posts were mostly IC-related. Though I was at first shifting from Null to Town reads on him, I somehow ended up suspecting him instead, because the contents/weight of his posts haven't changed even until his last post as player. And when you came to replace him, you just lurked and didn't give much opinions on anyone except Grim, who for me is town.

So I'd like your reads on everyone, so I'd get an idea on your view on this game.

[hayatoBL]

@NS
Grim is on L-3 now. Why aren’t you voting him? And if scum quick-hammer, we can get scum next day. So what are you afraid of?

@Tris

VOTE: Trisania

a) You posted a bunch of reads on Post 118. Yet, you vote 14 posts later (your own post), which is on post 180. I think that’s fear. Fear of making enemies. You say your opinion is still ‘subject to change’. But when you vote on ZF, there was no change. You sticked to your reads on Post 118.

b) On post 210, you said TNE’s “I-don’t-care-attitude” can be both scum and town. But on post 267 you say, that same attitude convinced you of his innocence. You’re being inconsistent and I think, you were trying to get a halo-effect by defending a town player.

c) Before you voted on Cervantes, the last time you read him was a town read which was on Post 118. And suddenly, you scum read him on Post 241. Your reasons for it is:

@hayato: My town read on him "yesterday" was more than real world days ago.

It changed when he said this

:

Was away from home last few days. Catching up atm.

He hasn't posted anything since then, even short comments on the wall posts. True, he could have been really busy. But as I said, he could have requested for a replacement days ago if that was the case.

I will revise my vote once I see someone else more scum read-worthy.

Tell me. What is there in Cervantes’ post, which makes you change your read from town to scum?

@ Grim
A motivational vote? It lost its effect the moment you call it a motivational vote… Let’s concentrate on the scum reads that we have. Like, why not Tris?

[Grimgroove]

Nobody Special is a scumread. Maybe him being motivated can change that, but I'm very happy with my vote right now.

[Grimgroove]

Tell me. What is there in Cervantes’ post, which makes you change your read from town to scum?

wh y dindt you ask the same question to thiscantgowong?

[Trisania]

@hayato:
a) What's wrong with not voting sooner? I wasn't in much of a hurry, and I just wanted to post my opinion on other people. Of course the reads are subject to change: the longer the day drags on, the more a person's posts indicate his/her alignment. I changed my initial vote on TCGW because he gave justifications on his innocence. He was able to defend himself despite having a lot of voters. This made him townier than ZF, who didn't post much except sheep a wagon and hammer TNE. If he had defended himself, I would have changed my vote. I don't fear making enemies; I wouldn't have given the OMGUS vote on ZF if I feared attention.

b) No, I wasn't inconsistent. You asked me what I think his alignment was, and I said he might be town, though I didn't stress on it. And it was reinforced by the fact that he was consistent on being rude and uncaring on his impending death.

c) It made me think Cervantes was merely lurking after he posted that.

[hayatoBL]

Tell me. What is there in Cervantes’ post, which makes you change your read from town to scum?

wh y dindt you ask the same question to thiscantgowong?

@Grim
TCGW didn’t vote for Cervantes because of that post.

[Trisania]

^That's quite a shallow and scummy reason, the same way you find my reason for voting Cervantes as scummy.

If it helps you understand my PoV, this was how I analyzed Cervantes:
Was inactive = probably busy iRL
Showed up and posted that post = ok, prod dodge. He'll probably post some reads soon
Didn't post anything anymore = someone (Grim, I think) commented Cervantes was lurking

The comment made sense, and since lurking is more or less a scumtell, and since he hadn't made significant posts as if trying to go under the radar, I considered him scum.

And I unvoted him to give his replacement a chance to prove himself town.

I can't help but feel you're tunneling me, hayato.

[Untrod Tripod]

fferyllt replaces Cervantes

[fferyllt]

hi guys!

catching up

[fferyllt]

Also, I don't offhand recall playing with you-scum, but I am positive I've modded you-scum. And this is it, I'm pretty sure.

I need to go look (but that won't be until late tonight).

Are you thinking of the River City newbie game? He was town in that one. Replaced cAPSLOCK.

[fferyllt]

^Actually, I doubt Grimsgroove is mafia, since he did that shrink act which sort of implied he is Doc. However, that would be unlikely because claiming that role this early is suicidal and just asking the mafia to kill him. He can't also be mafia claiming doctor, because it's also too early for them to be doing that, since it would only cast suspicion upon him. Therefore, he is likely to be just a VT.

This kind of speculation written "out loud" is not a good idea if you're town. Scum don't need any help narrowing down the list of players who might have power roles.

[fferyllt]

@thiscantgowrong:

Anyway, I'll unvote you eventually, I'm just waiting for that one thing that will tell me you're town.

This sounds like you already know he's town.

[Trisania]

^No, more like he's almost town, but not quite, so I'm waiting for something to prove it.

[fferyllt]

Nobody Special is a scumread. Maybe him being motivated can change that, but I'm very happy with my vote right now.

I could be biased because I was reading day 1 with the knowledge of TNE's alignment, but I really didn't understand the impetus of his wagon.

And, I am surprised GiF voted him. Really surprised. There's other stuff I don't like about GiF's play as well.

NS can't answer for any of that, but this isn't a situation where I'm willing to let a replacement start at null.

If NS is scum, who is his partner?

[fferyllt]

Both votes on Cervantes today are very weird considering the motivations that precede them.

No reaction to this?
Last chance...

Missed it the first time, but rather than directly talk about that I've been thinking a bit so I'll share that.

The more I've thought about it the more I think the case against Cervantes is weak. The lack of response in this case is probably not a scum tell and IRL stuff is the most likely explanation. But I've been thinking about the zipperflesh NK.

Going on what happened yesterday, who would I have chosen to kill? The two most important elements I can think of (since no PR has been claimed as of yet) are eliminating skilled scum hunters and not drawing attention to scum players (maybe in the best case putting attention on a town player). So to go down the list:

Hayato has mostly been involved in asking questions without definitively stating who he suspects as scum. This hasn't really led to any bandwagons and mostly just seems to cause fights between him and the person he questions to no other effect. Not a threat, though also not likely to draw attention to any particular target either.

Trisania has been active and voting, but has primarily followed the lead of other already established bandwagons. Not really a threat though might put a little attention on zipper or myself due to her earlier distrust of us.

WBO has also pretty much just followed the leads of others, so null on the threat consideration, maybe light suspicion put on myself due to the vote he cast against me earlier, but like Tri it's kinda weak.

I also have mostly followed bandwagons caused by others and so also pretty low on the threat scale. As an added bonus (one Tri seems to share) I'm good at getting suspicion drawn to me. Killing me might bring attention to Cervantes given my stubborn voting of him the last game day.

GiF is a game veteran. Along with Grimsgroove he's been very influential towards directing the votes of other players and starting lynch wagons. Once he starts getting accurate scum tells that's incredibly dangerous. Killing him doesn't attract attention to anyone in particular (maybe zipper?) but does eliminate a potentially powerful town player.

Grimsgroove is similar to GiF in this regard. He helped form the nucleus of the previous day's lynch, and killing him may not leave an obvious target for scum hunters (his main focus yesterday being TNE and calling most of the newbs as town).

Cervantes did start a bandwagon (against me) so has some influence when he speaks up but hasn't for some time. I've also called that scummy the previous day meaning he could be viewed as a potential lynch target for day 2 and thus useful for scum as a distraction. Killing him might have attracted attention towards me due to his accusations against me.

And finally, zipperflesh. Zipper had some potential for danger, he was able to focus suspicion on Cervantes and Trisania for a time. And he was willing to be decisive and be the hammer of a lynch vote. Killing him would perhaps make either Cervantes or Tri more obvious targets due to his accusations against them.

The above doesn't really address your premise, which was that scum would kill someone that doesn't point to them, and preferably points to someone who is town. Who does the zipperflesh kill point to? Is that person(s) somewhat cleared in your mind as a result?

Given these options, I would probably have killed either Grim or GiF last night unless one of them was my scum partner.

A common kill strategy is to eliminate threats. Threats include players who are on the right track, players who are likely to figure things out (which usually translates to experience, but not always), and players who could be PRs. If scum have an experienced player among their team, then eliminating other experienced players is sometimes avoided because being the last experienced player left in the game can look a little suspicious.

Another common strategy is to kill someone who was in the middle of the pack suspicion-wise because that sort of kill can sow a lot of confusion.

As a point of interest, I find that night kill analysis doesn't get a lot of traction at MS. I think there's value to it, but I guess maybe at some point in the past kill-obfuscation was so intense here that "NKA is a waste of time" became axiomatic.

I don't think both are likely to be scum. They kind of budied up a bit against TNE and for the innocence of newbs like me or Tri. I don't think scum would make in the minds of the other players as the two team members as on a team, not in a newbie game where the newbs might be too inexperienced to think that's not what scum would do. So which one do I think is more likely scum?

Experienced players might do this precisely because it's counterintuitive. It's less likely to happen on day 1 of a newbie game. IME the play complexity increases in newbies over time due to replacements and people warming up to the game.

GiF mostly worked with fairly short explanations for his reasons for suspicion or lack thereof.

That's GiF's style. It's not alignment indicative. The stuff that is indicative is his lack of scumhunting and (IMO) his vote on TNE, especially since it wasn't deadline driven.

Zipper and TNE exhibited similar tactics and both are now known as town making me think that might be more of a town than a scum tell.

I don't know about zipper, but TNE's short-on-explanations style is not alignment indicative.

Grims isn't as long as what I pull but seems a bit more comprehensive.

I need to review some of his newbie games, because some players do play differently in Newbies, and I have only one Newbie game with him. My experience is that he plays forcefully and works pretty hard to make his preferred lynches happen. He also interrogates pretty intensely, which I didn't see too much of in day 1.

That could be an attempt to seem more transparent and therefore more town. His activeness in trying to find scum should be supportive of town-ness, except that if it's directed away from scum it can seem town while being rather anti-town (and the three votes he put down were against two people I know to be town, zipper and myself, and one maybe town, GiF which his death could be very bad if he's town). So right now, Grimsgroove is my big suspect.

Maybe. If I were making a scum case for Grim right now, I'd probably base it on his relatively soft day 1 approach. But, I dislike GiF's day 1 play even more, and I wouldn't expect a hypothetical scum-Grim to take such a strong stand against a partner on day 2.