Open 529 -- Picking Simplicity -- Game Over

[don_johnson]

well, odds of overlapping targets or crosskills is increasing, so there's that. didn't foresee the kingmaker scenario. it makes no sense that you are alive right now. but I'm glad that you are. I need to reread your posting yesterday. we really need to get input from our lynch pool. do you think maenara could be sk? tbh, if they are, I'd rather they win than an incompetent scum team. I'm kind of willing to just bet mae is town here. I don't think an sk would be putting themselves out there and am more inclined to think one of our lurkers is holding that card.

[penguin_alien]

I pretty much have to assume all my reads are lousy, given the Mafia didn't bother with me.

I don't know the exact numbers, but if we lynch Mafia, each scum has a 20% chance of killing the other scum and a 20% chance of overlapping.

[don_johnson]

quick iso of JS makes me think he is one of the mafia.

of course, reading antihero quick leaves the same impression, but I see them as more likely pair with AA9. which contradicts the JS read.

antihero isn't bad, but the lurking allows them to keep their reads consistent. and their reads were wrong. ugh.

p-edit: I'm betting on you and mae. if one of you is sk/scum, then I'm giving up.

mae: where you at?

[don_johnson]

fuck. I'm getting paranoid. I forgot maenara replaced TNE.

I think antihero is 100% anti-town. I'm making him my default lynch. aptil is gut town after iso. AA9 makes more sense as a partner if antihero is mafia, but there could be a link to maenara there too.

fuckity fuck.

fuck.

[don_johnson]

I really hate that this game is so long.

[Titus]

Titus sits down to her nightly vodka glass. She feels as if someone had just kicked her chair in the back. She felt some pain but the liquor blurred most of the pain. Her eyes begin to fade out as she starts the process of dying. Sometime later, a figure broke into her house. It was dark. The figure was wearing all black. She starts to get up to say hello and realizes she's bleeding... and there's a bullet. "Shit" she mumbles under her breath. "Hey you, you must be Skull's replacement! Grab me the bandages I keep in the closet!" Titus starts fumbling in that direction but the SK stabs her. She falls to the floor knocking over the vodka onto his shoes. "Damn you serial killer. Bah!"

The lights fade out for Titus, she fights the scum no more.

[don_johnson]

AA9/antihero for mafia.

JS for sk.

vote: jacobsavage

its the only thing that truly makes sense to me atm.

mae: get in here and reconvince me of your towniness.

[don_johnson]

bah.

unvote

now I just convinced myself that js is mafia.

i'll address this in the morning with some fresh coffee.

can my townies please put forth some effort?

[penguin_alien]

AA9, you said you towned it up when you replaced in. I know you often have good reads that don't get followed; where are you standing on things ATM?

SK kills:

mastin2
Wake88
Skullduggery (likely null as doctor, although an odd choice given that Mafia almost certainly had to kill Skull to get to the cop)
Rainbowdash
Titus

Question is, what do these players have in common to make the SK target them? No, I don't have an answer right now, but I'd like other people's thoughts.

[penguin_alien]

I take that back; Skull didn't claim doc, so that likely didn't cause the SK to NK her.

[Maenara]

p-edit: I'm betting on you and mae. if one of you is sk/scum, then I'm giving up.

mae: where you at?

It's half past six in the bloody morning. At the time of your posting, it was 4 AM.

At any rate, I mostly want to know why your tone has totally changed. Yeah, fair enough, up the creek without a paddle if we end up in a kingmaker tomorrow, but occupational hazards and whatnot. You've been aggressive until today; why are you suddenly going for morose/hopeless/whatever? It's a big change. Not gonna believe it's coincidental.

And yeah, we bloody well need to hear from the lurkers now. Antihero, Aptil, ArcAngel, Jacob; it's time to be active. There's no way we can lynch anyone not amongst these; leaving four lurkers out of six people is absolutely preposterous.

More input at a saner time of day.

[aptil]

VOTE: antihero- this should have been done yesterday .

[Maenara]

Aptil: Tell me why we shouldn't lynch Jacob.

[Maenara]

I mean, by all means, if we could lynch all of you today, I would; that'd leave only me, Johnson and Penguin alive, which would probably be a town win. Alas, we only have a single lynch. And the way I see it, right now, you and Jacob are mafia together, which makes you a less preferable lynch than the SK, but on the other hand, you're also a safer bet. If we lynch either of you, I'm betting that the SK will shoot the other person, if only to avoid the risk of getting killed in return. Might even finish up the game for us with a crosskill.

Or you could tell me why we shouldn't lynch him. Your move.

Incidentally,

@MOD, if a SK and a Mafioso endgame one another, is it a Mafia win, Serial Killer win, or tie?

[aptil]

Well from yesterday's vote it is pretty clear that all the scum were on the jmo wagon.

[Maenara]

That's a pretty audacious statement.

Which two of me, Johnson and Penguin are scum? And of those two and AH, who's the SK?

[aptil]

I have already stated antihero as scum and dj as sk . The way you are defending antihero from yesterday makes you his most likely partner.

[don_johnson]

mae: I think you are needing to work on your reading comprehension. my tone is pretty consistent with yesterday. I don't think its good gameplay to succumb to paranoia in the late stages of mafia games. that's kind of the opposite of hopelessness. but whatevz.

aptil: the more I look through antihero the more they read mafia. the pairing with mae is certainly a possibility, but AA9 works as well. your pick for sk is wrong. lynching mafia isn't going to be ideal today, so we need to work that out. I have already laid out my sk theory so I'd like to see yours. also, please answer mae's question.

[ArcAngel9]

I am convinced that aptil is not scum now

so that leaves the two scum were munching in jmo wagon... that would be..
Antihero, Maenara, penguin_alien, don_johnson

I feel maenara is town.
so the final two scum is between don, penguin and anti


i ll go with don first.

VOTE: don

[Maenara]

Oh, hell yes.

Don's the SK.

VOTE: don_johnson.

Swap me for ArcAngel, and I'm all aboard your reads list, Aptil.

[don_johnson]

way to out yourself.

vote: Jacob savage

I think I had this right last night. aptil, take a look at the AA9/antihero connection please.

p-edit: mae, nope.

[Maenara]

Tone completely different from yesterday, way too many comments on night kill interaction between mafia and SK, far too happy to go along with leashing jmo yesterday.

Pretty damn sure he was expecting jmo to survive, follow the directions of town's second vote, thus further implicating jmo (Of course, he was one of the most audible townies, so he'd be mostly in control of the vote anyhow, and would even get to get other people's feedback on it; he did want to hit mafia, after all). He stabbed Titus, expecting the mafia to do the sensible thing and kill the confirmed townie (just listen to his constant frustration with the "incompetence" of the mafia team - not a very appropriate sentiment for a townie, methinks?), ignoring the fact that to the rest of us, Penguin isn't 100% confirmed. He was hella suspicious of Titus yesterday, too, which fits perfectly with the fact that he stabbed her; in this meta, nightkilling the person you were gunning for during the day has become so very un-scummy that it's gone full circle and become the thing for scum to do, once more.

Truth be told, I was suspicious yesterday, too. So why was I so adamant that we lynch jmo? Well, duh, he was just as bad (seriously, begging for a lynch, just freaking read his posts), and it wasn't as if I was

sure

about DJ. This way, the only risk we took was losing jmo, and frankly, not a big loss. And most of the people suspicious of DJ, Titus (the apparent leader of the wagon, who'd've thunk) aside, seem to have survived.

Yep, we be nailing this one.

[don_johnson]

Tone completely different from yesterday, way too many comments on night kill interaction between mafia and SK, far too happy to go along with leashing jmo yesterday.

not sure what "tone" you are referring to. "leashing" sk is a prudent discussion to have at that point in a game. not sure where you get "happy" out of it.

Pretty damn sure he was expecting jmo to survive, follow the directions of town's second vote, thus further implicating jmo (Of course, he was one of the most audible townies, so he'd be mostly in control of the vote anyhow, and would even get to get other people's feedback on it; he did want to hit mafia, after all).

I voted jmo. so whatevz.

"mae"] He stabbed Titus, expecting the mafia to do the sensible thing and kill the confirmed townie (just listen to his constant frustration with the "incompetence" of the mafia team - not a very appropriate sentiment for a townie, methinks?), ignoring the fact that to the rest of us, Penguin isn't 100% confirmed.

PA is 100% confirmed imo. its common sense. not sure where you get "frustration".

He was hella suspicious of Titus yesterday, too, which fits perfectly with the fact that he stabbed her; in this meta, nightkilling the person you were gunning for during the day has become so very un-scummy that it's gone full circle and become the thing for scum to do, once more.

^^ interesting theory. works both ways. so whatevz.

Truth be told, I was suspicious yesterday, too. So why was I so adamant that we lynch jmo? Well, duh, he was just as bad (seriously, begging for a lynch, just freaking read his posts), and it wasn't as if I was

sure

about DJ. This way, the only risk we took was losing jmo, and frankly, not a big loss. And most of the people suspicious of DJ, Titus (the apparent leader of the wagon, who'd've thunk) aside, seem to have survived.

there is really no case here. good luck on getting another double kill.

Yep, we be nailing this one.

no. you're pretty much screwed.

[don_johnson]

ya know what? a mislynch will encourage a crosskill. I think that's our best bet.

unvote, vote: don_johnson

PA and aptil: good luck.

[Maenara]

What
No JOhnson what no don't
/