Open 535: Enemy of My Enemy

[beastcharizard]

It isn't like I said I was a little suspicious of Mind's slot way back when they got the result on me or anything. Oh wait I did.

I would prefer the Aegor lynch because I trust town more than I trust WW. I also think I know the scum so there is my possible false sense of security in the LYLO situation.

If we are going for crazy ideas why don't we just lynch me? People seem to think I am scum, even though I am not, and when i die you all just follow my wonderful reads. Aegor kills Bubba or Mindgamer and mafia kills Aegor thus leaving the village in a wonderful situation to win by lynching the other mafia i mentioned that isn't dead.

[Mindgamer]

Unless you build convincing cases, no one is going to follow your reads.

You trust town more than werewolf, yet werewolf has 100% motivation to lynch/shoot mafia whereas town has two mafia among its five members... If you trust town's 60% potential over the werewolf, you're likely falling for a fallacy of group identification. I think for this reason you might very well be town.

My next post will include a summary with my scum suspects.

[beastcharizard]

If we don't lynch WW I am only willing to lynch bubba. Yes I suspect you but bubba play today has just struck ever nerve I have about him being scum.

[bubbajack8]

VOTE: beast

For ignoring that a lynch on the WW is a bad idea, and completely scum motivated yet trying everything to get it done. For trying to pair up me and Mindgamer on the basis we agree that we shouldn't lynch the wolf which is in fact town motivated.

How's this for a nerve? What other "nerves have I hit" besides not wanting to lynch the WW and giving TOWN a better chance.

[erneiz_hyde]

Sorry I'm late.

OK, so BC gets a result and Aegor actually claimed WW. Now he makes a proposal to not lynch him today and try to lynch maf instead. I don't really buy it. If we actually lynch a mafia today, he will not kill the other mafia nor will mafia kill him because that will result in automatic town win (he already claimed WW after all). It's a ploy to dwindle the number of townie, because scums can make kill as long as there's one member left.

Beginning a day in 2-1-1 is an auto town lose period. The game only continues to determine which scum wins or if they're draw.

[erneiz_hyde]

EBWOP: Actually, it really boils down to a 1 on 1 scum duel, with the two townies as mere bullets to manipulate, if we ever end up in 2-1-1.

It was a nice try on his part, but anyways, for good measure, I will put him back on L-1.

Vote:Aegor

3-2 and 2-1 lylo may be hard, but that's our better option than leaving him alive and, I dare say, inevitably end up in 2-1-1.

[bubbajack8]

Beginning a day in 2-1-1 is an auto town lose period. The game only continues to determine which scum wins or if they're draw.

Aegor posted about this already and I'm going to quote from that page.

Four-player endgame: Two Townies, one Mafioso, and one Serial Killer.

This is the endgame that's being explained. Take out SK and put in WW.

Yomi Level 1

In these situations, if the Townie votes for anyone it is tantamount to suicide - the scumteam they don't help destroy will just endgame them.
Thus, the Town will always lose.
Thus, the situation seems hopeless...
Yomi Level 2

As with most dilemmas, the correct response for the Townie(s) is to take a third option and No Lynch. There is absolutely nothing the scum can do in this situation but follow suit.
At Night, the dilemma shifts to the scum. The only way for either scum to win is for them to shoot the other scum. But if both scum do this, then the Townie(s) will be the only player(s) alive, and the Town will win. This is a disheartening outcome so late in the game!
The other option, shooting the Townie, is clearly suboptimal. Going with the three-player example above, if the Mafioso shoots the Townie and the Serial Killer shoots the Mafioso, the Serial Killer wins (and the Mafioso feels dumb afterward). Thus, to the scum, the choice is between giving victory to the other scum or the Townie.
It is worth noting that depending on the moderator, if BOTH scum shoot the Townie, the result is a draw. Since a draw is less than a win, there is no real reason to not shoot the other scum. (Or is there? See Caveats below.)
Thus, the Town will always win.
But now the situation seems hopeless for scum...
Yomi Level 3

As with most dilemmas, the correct response for the scum is to take a third option and agree during the Day to lynch the Townie(s). With only scum left in the game, they either leave with a joint win or shoot each other at Night to get the draw. This can be applied iteratively in the five-player and six-player scenarios until they work their way down to the three-player case.
Thus, dilemmas that are as stated should always result in the two scum teams drawing.

Those are the options. However.

The above strategy does not work for the four-player endgame shown above. This is because the Town players have veto power over the lynch of either of their own. Thus, the scum are forced to take the option at Yomi Level 2. In this scenario, the Prisoner's Dilemma (and Prisoner's Gambit) comes into its own.

and what was Yomi 2?

Yomi Level 2

As with most dilemmas, the correct response for the Townie(s) is to take a third option and No Lynch. There is absolutely nothing the scum can do in this situation but follow suit.
At Night, the dilemma shifts to the scum. The only way for either scum to win is for them to shoot the other scum. But if both scum do this, then the Townie(s) will be the only player(s) alive, and the Town will win. This is a disheartening outcome so late in the game!
The other option, shooting the Townie, is clearly suboptimal. Going with the three-player example above, if the Mafioso shoots the Townie and the Serial Killer shoots the Mafioso, the Serial Killer wins (and the Mafioso feels dumb afterward). Thus, to the scum, the choice is between giving victory to the other scum or the Townie.
It is worth noting that depending on the moderator, if BOTH scum shoot the Townie, the result is a draw. Since a draw is less than a win, there is no real reason to not shoot the other scum. (Or is there? See Caveats below.)
Thus, the Town will always win.
But now the situation seems hopeless for scum...

Town always wins.

[erneiz_hyde]

.........

oh wow, that's eye opening. But then, I don't really get what's stopping the scum to do option Yomi 3 and make everyone dead. They don't want to lose either, so a draw with all townies dead seems to be good enough results. or worse, both of them don't NK and then we're at a standstill.

[bubbajack8]

This can be applied iteratively in the five-player and six-player scenarios until they work their way down to the three-player case.

the Town players have veto power over the lynch of either of their own.

2 town, 1 maf 1 ww. At that point it's a nl. I doubt we get here, but it's auto town then.

[erneiz_hyde]

I mean, they can just agree during the day to NK both townies resulting in a draw. sorry, I guess that's still in yomi 2. So, what's stopping them then? I certainly don't see a situation where town can auto-win when both sides of scum is still going.

[Aegor]

I mean, they can just agree during the day to NK both townies resulting in a draw.

In which case one of us can turn against the other and win the game because the other has NKed a townie.

[Mindgamer]

I mean, they can just agree during the day to NK both townies resulting in a draw. sorry, I guess that's still in yomi 2. So, what's stopping them then? I certainly don't see a situation where town can auto-win when both sides of scum is still going.

There is no situation where town autowins. 2/1/1 or 1/1/1 are anyone's game. They're dependent on what the scum choose to do at night. Prisoner's dilemma can be applied to this situation though. Imagine you're scum:

In the situation the opposing scum decides to shoot town:
- If you decide to shoot the opposing scum, you win.
- If you decide to shoot the town, you draw.

In the situation the opposing scum decides to shoot you:
- If you decide to shoot the opposing scum, neither of you win.
- If you decide to shoot town, the other scum wins.

If the other scum decides to shoot town, it's better for you to shoot him since you'll end up with a win rather than a draw. If the other scum decides to shoot you, it's better for you to shoot him since you're preventing the guy that betrayed you from winning. So as an individual, shooting the opposing scum is always the best option for you no matter what the opposing scum decides to do.

Ergo, the scum will end up shooting eachother. However, the mafia in this game can prevent this Prisoner's Dilemma from occurring by simply shooting Aegon tonight. The remaining mafia will still be in a favourable 3-player lylo then. There is no guarantee that the mafia will behave rationally (people can be dumb), but if we assume rationality Aegon will be shot tonight if we don't lynch him. That's why not lynching Aegon is our best strategy for today. At the same time, Aegon still has incentive to play to his win condition (and indirectly help us) because we can't assume rationality and mafia may decide to shoot town tonight anyway.

Understand?

[bubbajack8]

Ergo, the scum will end up shooting eachother. However, the mafia in this game can prevent this Prisoner's Dilemma from occurring by simply shooting Aegon tonight. The remaining mafia will still be in a favourable 3-player lylo then. There is no guarantee that the mafia will behave rationally (people can be dumb), but if we assume rationality Aegon will be shot tonight if we don't lynch him. That's why not lynching Aegon is our best strategy for today. At the same time, Aegon still has incentive to play to his win condition (and indirectly help us) because we can't assume rationality and mafia may decide to shoot town tonight anyway.

Exactly why I said I doubt we'll get there.

[thenewearth]

Vote Count

Mindgamer (0) -
bubbajack8 (0) -
Daniel Bryan (0) -
beastcharizard (1) - bubbajack8
erneiz_hyde (0) -
Aegor (3) - beastcharizard, Jordan_Downey, erneiz_hyde
Jordan_Downey (0) -

Not Voting - Mindgamer, Daniel Bryan, Aegor

4 people's voices are needed to lynch

(expired on 2014-01-10 21:30:00)

[bubbajack8]

Oh my god. I've figured this game out.

There's 2 scum on the WW right now. Otherwise Mind would have hammered. NO one would suspect someone on a hammer right now. So this makes everyone not on the wagon town.

Town: Mind, Daniel, bubba
WW: Aegor.

Since I think JD is town by POE erniez is scum.

Town: Mind,

Daniel, bubba, JD

Scum:

beast,

ernie
WW:

Aegor.

I could be dead wrong with Mind just playing a good scum game, and JD COULD be scum. But I doubt that. Colored is what I'm 100% confident on. Notice ernie and Mind aren't colored. I'm not 100% on them, but I'm pretty confident.

[Jordan_Downey]

UNVOTE: Aegor

Your logic is flawed bubba. Scum wouldn't quick hammer here, because they have two more LYLO's to live through and it's fairly obvious that town discussion is called for so their hammer would be suspicious. Even if they would, DB can't be cleared by that considering he simply hasn't been here since the day started. Unless I'm missing some reason as to why you have zero suspicion of DB.

@ Mind- your entrance leaves no doubt in me of my townread on your slot. What are your reads?

@ Aegor- your goal here is known. ^Same question.

-Jingle

[bubbajack8]

Your logic is flawed bubba. Scum wouldn't quick hammer here, because they have two more LYLO's to live through and it's fairly obvious that town discussion is called for so their hammer would be suspicious. Even if they would, DB can't be cleared by that considering he simply hasn't been here since the day started. Unless I'm missing some reason as to why you have zero suspicion of DB.

I psuedo cleared DB due to the fact he hasn't been here, and it's pretty obvious (to me) 2 scum are on the wagon. And a 3/2 lylo is pretty hard for town. I would think scum would want that. (and WW gone)

[Jordan_Downey]

But quicklynching here would be a scumclaim, leading to a 2 and 1 LYLO. You might still be right, but I think you may be counting your chickens before they hatch.

[bubbajack8]

I'm just saying they could have hammered. Even if it was a scum claim it still would be leading us to lylo.

[beastcharizard]

Really? How is your vote on my not scummy? You are mad I found your team. I am sticking to my guns and lynching anyone but the WW helps mafia way more than lynching WW. Mafia has to play near perfectly to get the win. I am more than capable of making a case against you tomorrow but I want the WW lynch today no matter what.

You are mafia and I am 100% certain of it.

[bubbajack8]

If I'm mafia throw a vote on me. Even a townie lynch *can* be better then a fucking WW lynch.

[bubbajack8]

How is wanting to let the WW live so that town's chances of winning scummy beast? Like seriously. I'm the most town player here right now. JD and Mind are playing exceptionally well as town as well. How the hell am I scum with Mind and not JD? I've said JD is town since like Day 1. Mind comes in and agrees with me AND the WW's idea, and he's auto scum for it? For just AGREEING with something someone you think is scummy said? What kind of logic is that? It's not there. All 3 of us are town. You're pissed I'm trying to get the lynch off the WW. Because the WW lynch is better for scum like I've said A THOUSAND TIMES. If you are seriously town then pretend for ONE MOMENT I'm town. Read what I'm saying and don't discredit it just because "I'm scum". Listen to the logic I've presented. Read through it again.

[beastcharizard]

Having 1 kill tonight is better than having two kills. The fate of the village is in the villages hands if we lynch the WW and in the WW/Mafia's hands if we don't. Who do you trust more? The scum or the village? Personally I am for the village controlling our own fates rather than someone who isn't even trying for a village win.

I thought Team 9 was possible mafia because they got the result on me. I said that after they claimed their result. I said them saying their result made me suspicious of them and that claiming their result was null at best. That is the slot that Mind replaced in to.

If you were town I wouldn't have to pretend you were town. I take that as a scum slip but for the sake of the arguement I will pretend you are town. Pretend you think I am town, then who do you think the remaining scum is?

[bubbajack8]

THE WW HAS TO KILL THE MAFIA TO WIN FFS.

How is getting a result alignment indicative Like EVERYONE here agreed it wasn't.

Read my other post. I already said who I think scum is. If it's not you it would be mind and ernie.

[beastcharizard]

And they have less than a 50% chance of hitting scum if we keep them alive. They ALSO need to kill TOWN to win. If we happen to lynch mafia then they don't have to shoot for mafia at that point because then they automatically lose so they would shoot for town.