Micro 269: See Nine Minus Minus (Game Over!)

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 2.08

[L-1] FuDuzn - Bulbazak, Titus, The Silver Bard, CherryDrPepper

[L-4] Titus - FuDuzn
[L-4] CherryDrPepper - Stuffed Crust

Not voting: BBmolla, TierShift

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is Tuesday, January 14, 2014 at 7:00 PM CST ((expired on 2014-01-14 17:00:00)).

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Stuffed Crust is V/LA until the end of January 25th.

[Stuffed Crust]

Why does Fu keep moving up and how is he higher than bard?
Would you say he's the same level of town as BB is?

SC you townreading Fu so strongly creeps me the fuck out.

Bard's play is solid, but I don't give a damn about claims. Fu's play strikes me as very town, especially in his claim and L-1 behavior. He's responding to pressure in a way that feels he's genuinely pushing his cases, beliefs, and so on. The speed of Fu's wagon compounded by the fact that EVERYONE seems to want to lynch him is further proof that he's likely town. It feels like a mislynch to me, so I'd rather focus on other players and discern their relationships and approaches to play.

I judge players solely on play, not on claims.
BBM's town via play and PoE on the claims--not because of the claims themselves, but because of all possible situations in which they could be true or false.

SC's reads are wierd as shit.

You're right, I should just parrot what everyone else reads, my bad. D:

[Titus]

SC's reads are wierd as shit.

Agreed. This whole I only judge the player not the claim is asisine. You cannot judge the player without judging the claim.

Wow, we're fucked if Bulba is town? What kinda shit is that?

[Bulbazak]

SC's reads are wierd as shit.

I'm not so sure that makes them scum, though.

[BBmolla]

SC's reads are wierd as shit.

I'm not so sure that makes them scum, though.

True. Town-Varsoon having ass backwards reads doesn't sound completely nuts.

But I don't know which head it is

[BBmolla]

Wow, we're fucked if Bulba is town? What kinda shit is that?

^Titus it's when you say shit like this that makes me think you're scum.

[TierShift]

SC don't you agree that Fu's latest posts have been a whole lot of AtE? How would you expect scum to act when they don't have any defense left?

[FuDuzn]

I didn't even have a chance for a defense, as soon as the day started I was basically strung up. Don't you think pushing so quickly for a lynch is scummy?

Tier, do me a favor and.play devils advocate. When I flip town who in your eyes will look the worst?

Outside of yourself I mean......

[Titus]

Wow, we're fucked if Bulba is town? What kinda shit is that?

^Titus it's when you say shit like this that makes me think you're scum.

I'll talk like that regardless. Look at our BB game.

[TierShift]

I didn't even have a chance for a defense, as soon as the day started I was basically strung up. Don't you think pushing so quickly for a lynch is scummy?

Tier, do me a favor and.play devils advocate. When I flip town who in your eyes will look the worst?

Outside of yourself I mean......

Hey, did you even notice that I was defending you a few pages ago? You're acting like I am the guy that has been pushing your lynch, while I gave you a shot to redeem yourself and you didn't take it.

If this is, next to an AtF, also a question, I would answer either Bulba or Titus since the rest on the long L-1 wagon is even less scummy.

[TierShift]

I guess Fu and SC are talking some kind of sense into me.

Update to the question:
If Fu flips town I'm sure I want to lynch bulba. I'm still not exactly sure about his sick tunnel, if it's scum trying to get everyone on the wagon or if it's just town tunneling.

The thing that keeps him high in my reads list is his claim.

What I just thought of is this:
Bulba was moderately scummy day 1.
If he is scum he would need the claim to not immediately die after perhaps getting Fu lynched, if you understand what I mean. (Read that sentence 3 times to understand.) What I mean with that is that if bulba is scum it would perhaps be smarter to claim now and have 35% of a CC (which isn't even that bad cause doc would die now too) instead of a guaranteed lynch a few days ahead.

I want everyone to tell me if they agree that bulba needed the claim as scum or not. I also want to know how much the claim clears him.

Don't get me wrong, I still wanna lynch Fu today. But I'm saying I think it's either bulba or fu.

[Titus]

TS, I want to make sure I understand your question.

1) Assume Bulba is scum
2) What would bulbascum do
3) Is it plausible that bulba's actions are scum actions?

[TierShift]

Yep you got it

[Titus]

I'm the 1-shot doctor. I protected BBMolla.

Vote FuDuzn

Let's make this happen.

\o/

If you're 1-Shot Protective you should claim who you protected imo

But that's your call

VOTE: Fu

Supposing, arguendo, that Bulba is scum, this is a risk. Scum Bulba would know that either a) they nked or b) attacked Molla and he can claim to heal BBMolla to conftown him and thus get a town vote to do what he wanted because he is the doctor.

If Bulba is scum, he will want to put off massclaim as long as possible to prevent the town from noticing there are too many PRs.

As for the likelihood, my gut tells me he's not one to take risks. Of course, his play makes sense if they feared the relatively decent position we are in now.

Two Bulbascum scenarios,

If scum attacked BB,

Claim doc on Bulba, force town doc to choose between healing or outing. If doc picks healing, BB can use it against the real doc, if he selects ccing, then the town may never get heals. Either way, town tradeoff.

If scum NKed,

Same position as above.


Overall, I can't say this is Bulbascum, there are advantages if he's scum but inconsistencies (Bulba doesn't gambit as scum but he isn't as likely to claim as town)

Blah. I think Bulba's risk averse though.


The likelihood of this depends on how

[Titus]

How you read Bulba's meta. I hate meta, but looking at the claim alone, that's what it boils down to

[TierShift]

I should have been more specific.
I'm asking whether you agree that bulba would have been lynched today or tomorrow without the claim and if claiming would have improved the situation in case of bulbascum.

[Titus]

Predicting who will be lynched is a weak point as it really is unpredictable unless a cop has a guilty. It boils down to what Bulba thinks though and not reality. I would say Bulbascum is smart enough to look at this as afaction game. If he thinks he is going down, then PR claiming makes sense. It gains his team positioning for very minimial cost. There is evidence for that given how quick he votes Fu.

If bulbascum doesn't feel like he's getting lynched, then this suggests a more methodical plan on scum to draw out the PRs. This likely points to the scums losing their nk. You'd definitely look for an analytical player as Bulba's partner if this was accurate.

[Titus]

Tiershift, do you feel as if Bulba thought he was prime lynchbait material?

[TierShift]

Okay, the first part of 641 was what I wanted to hear, thanks. The second part of that post is a little far-fetched, but who would that partner be?

I think there was definitely more than a little suspicion of bulba, but I don't know him or his confidence in his own abilities that well, so I really can't say.

Titus, why do you townread bulba so strongly? Would you see him as scum if Fu flips town? If yes, who's the partner?

[Titus]

Tier, I looked through Bulba's ISO. Does he tunnel more as town or scum?

[TierShift]

How am I supposed to know? You probably know better.

[Titus]

Got ninjaed.

Second part fmpov is either you, SC or Cherry. I would lean more towards SC due to the fact only one head is postingI think and he can blame everything else on the other head.

Tiershift, this conversation has weakened my read on Bulba a fair amount. I didn't really see any reason for Bulba to fakeclaim. I really wanted three conftowns as it puts us in excellent position. Given no cc, that is the logical thing to do but I see your point and it is valid.


Tier, I don't know your histoey with Bulba and I have never seen Bulba tunnel to my recollection.

[TierShift]

Thanks for reminding me that I was gonna ask that.

@mac: why aren't you posting?

What I'm trying to get clear in my mind is if the scumminess of the tunnel on possible town is offset by the towniness of the claim, so if more people want to help with that that would be lovely.

[Titus]

Agree. I would like as many eyes as possible to look our analysis.

[TierShift]

Ugh you feel unnatural just now.