Aronis
Started off in #187 by voting Muffin, calling SSK and Fourtrouble town while calling (in #203) Muffin, Selkies, and Katsuki scum. None of these are explained. The only things that had happened so far in the game were the RVS bantering, FourTrouble's Katsuki vote based on Rule 6, and the beginning of the Selkies wagon. In #228 says that the only reason he has those scumreads is because they "seem suspicious" (this is after SSK asks him if it's just because those players had the most votes). In #280, when asked to elaborate by Katsuki, Aronis repeats the "Rule 6 being anti-mafia" thing being suspicious for Katsuki, and implied a Katsuki-Muffin scumteam because Muffin had an unexplained town-read on Katsuki. He then unvotes, without any explanation for why, since he just gave a reason (weak though it may be) for Muffin to be scum. Also note the lack of explanation for a Selkies scumread, even though that was directly requested. In #293 he says the reason he unvoted was because scum would discuss that in their day-QT, and thus drops his reads. In #391 Aronis outright says he's just trying to blend in, because he's not used to MafiaScum play. In #603, he votes Selkies for joking and making a lot of clutter posts (neither of which are scummy; Aronis even says joking isn't an "obvious scumtell", but it's not even slightly scummy, it's null). #642 is a post-by-post defense against Notscience's attacks. OMGUS votes Notscience in #660, without reasoning. Switches to Ross in #677, again without reasoning. In #685 he says he had a NULL read on Ross, he just wanted to move off of a Notscience vote because that wasn't going to go anywhere. Also says he voted Notscience not because he thought he was scum, but because he thought Notscience was an idiot.
Aronis has been scummy to the point of being goofy, but his scumtells are all explainable by the fact that he's brand spanking new (joined Jan. 19th), and he's playing exactly how a dumb newbie would. Unexplained vote switching, OMGUS votes, voting for people he specifically did NOT have a scumread on, etc. are all behaviors of a total newbie. Aronis is at best a VI, and I would be totally ok with a policy lynch on him, because heaven help us if we go into LYLO with him still in tow. However, I cannot honestly say he's any scummier than any other newbie (though this is because I have an incredibly difficult time reading newbies).
Null/VI
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Bert
Replaced in in #299. First vote was on Fourtrouble in #313, saying that he didn't buy FourTrouble's explanation for switching to Muffin from Katsuki (because of Muffin's defense of Katsuki because of the Rule 6 thing, Muffin was here and Katsuki wasn't). Questions the Muffin wagon in #314, basically saying Muffin hasn't been present enough to warrant a wagon. In #327 he proclaims null reads across the board except pro-town Muffin (and maybe scum FT), and null-scum on Aronis because of weird Muffin vote/unvote. In #358, says FT asking for everybody's thoughts on Ross (before giving his own) didn't feel "sincere". There were also a few comments here and there about Ross and Goodfather appearing townie, but says Ross might just be his "2007 playstyle". Also scattered around a lot is discussion about VisCon 1523 or something, where apparently Bert did badly. In #431 votes Ross because Ross's comment about "I think we'll find scum" felt cautious. Also says that 90% of his reads are gut, and demands that we don't ask him about them. In #440 he goes ahead and lists his reads anyway. Sigh. Only scumreads are Ross and FT, so at least there are no contradictions, and his explanation for those reads also meshes with what he stated earlier. In #474, he says that what he doesn't find convincing about the Muffin wagon is FT's argument that it was scummy for Muffin to say Katsuki was too scummy to be scum because of Katsuki's argument about Rule 6 being unfair to scum (also of note, writing this sentence has given me a nosebleed). All the while he is saying why he gets FT's reasons for doing pretty much everything, including FT's Aronis and Kenny townreads. There was some back and forth here, but I can't follow it. Next vote was on Katsuki in #504, with reasoning (I'm guessing) being Katsuki saying Selkies is scum because it's in their role PM. Disses Ross's argument about Katsuki not being scum because scum would not check out on D1 (#525). In #680, says the Aronis and Katsuki wagons are easy to latch onto. I don't know what this means; does that mean they are easy wagons, and thus we should vote for them? Or that they are easy wagons, and thus scum would vote for them? In #689, says he has a 50/50 read on Katsuki and Aronis both, but saying they are both conventionally scummy, while switching his vote to Selkies. In #690 he upgrades the 50/50 to gut-town reads on both. In #699 he goes ahead and switches to Aronis (a townread) because he proclaims a town read on Cabd and Notscience (the two people who were pushing him for an Aronis lynch). In #750, after he has ONE vote on himself, he warns the town that he will self-hammer at L-1. I would lynch just for this.
Bert has made basically constant references to past games, acting as though he's been laughably scummy, saying he's been regularly policy lynched, and most recently saying that he's prone to self-voting at L-1. This all stinks of appeal to emotion to me, because "woe is me, I get picked on so much because I am bad". It happens often enough (at least once every 10 of his 80-some odd posts) that it seems calculated. There's just no reason for him to hammer down his VI history so much if he were a townie. Mentioning it once, maybe twice, sure, if you're the self-loathing type, but over and over and over again? It looks intentional. The alternative is that Bert is really just that defensive, but he's doing it with 0 or 1 vote on him. NOBODY should be that kneejerk defensive. Overall this is scummy to me because it's putting too much effort into not getting lynched compared to trying to actually scumhunt. As for the gut reads, I don't like them, because it's easy for scum to fake them if the site as a whole says they're OK, but since it's just a playstyle thing I will let them pass. The Ross and FT votes at least had some reasoning behind them, and they were consistent, but the Aronis vote is pathetic, and seems sheep-y. Sure, Aronis is an easy policy lynch, but JUST after professing a town read? AND after saying that we wouldn't get any info from the lynch? That just smells of opportunism. Also, the circumstances behind his Aronis vote make me wonder about a Bert/Cabd/Notscience connection, though at this point I am unsure of other evidence; will watch for further developments.
As a side note Bert, you need to talk less and with more substance. You are way, way too chatty, and it's clogging up the damn thread. It's nearly impossible to tell which of your posts are worth looking at and which aren't. Condense, at least.
Leaning Scum
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Cabd
Votes Selkies in #27, looks like a RVS vote. Confirmed later during the RVS chatter. #227, Goodfather townread without reasoning. #233, Aronis vote, again without reasoning. #237, defends his Aronis vote by saying that Aronis being new does not preclude him from being scum, and implying that Cabd has some special newb-reading superpower. Activity takes a nosedive about now, to the point of calling
himself
out in #368. Lots of active lurking, presumably because of illness. In #520 we finally see some reasoning for the Aronis vote, that being that Cabd "didn't like the entry" or SSK's defense of Aronis that Aronis is just new. #547, Cabd calls out people on the Selkies wagon, asking for reasoning (all but Katsuki). People on the Selkies wagon at this point were Muffin, Kaboom, Goodfather, and Katsuki. After this there's a bit of back and forth with Muffin about Muffin's Selkies read, but doesn't post any analysis (just some "waiting for your wallpost" type posts). In #646 calls out selkies wagon again, specifically Kaboom, Goodfather, and Aronis (who had just joined it). In #697 says "Really, bert?" to Bert's explanation that the reason he doesn't want an Aronis vote was because there would be little information gained from the lynch. This is one of the two (very slight) pushes that makes Bert switch his vote to Aronis (see above). In #713 says that some of ffery's (who is one of the Selkies heads, I've gathered (I r such a gud detektiv)) responses seem "off", specifically quoting Selkies' #703. In #719 Cabd does not answer Selkies question about the Aronis vote except that "he's scum".Cabd's play has been consistently lurky (though at least some of it with good reason), but has not done a whole lot even when present. He questioned the people on the Selkies wagon, about their reasoning, but never followed up. I would give Cabd townie points for calling out his own lurking in 368, but given his overtly hostile reaction to the suggestion that it was intentional, I'm not sure this is townie, because any such pressure would have just led to that reaction. Cabd also seems to want reasoning for votes, but gives very weak reasons himself, such as voting Aronis because he "didn't like the entry". What the hell does that even mean? That's basically a non-response. It's equivalent to saying "because I think he's scummy" (which, note, he did in #719). The SSK-defending-Aronis-because-of-newness thing is at least a genuine reason, but seems too weak to carry a vote to me, especially considering there are other people doing more scummy things. Ultimately this is a null read, because the lurking combined with the odd mix of towntells (wanting to know the reasoning from folks on the Selkies wagon) and scumtells (having crap reasons for his vote on Aronis, minor potential for a connection with Bert) kind of just makes a big bowl of meh.
Null
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FourTrouble
First vote was on Katsuki in #32, reasoning being the Rule 6 thing. Posts reason in #134, that being that scum would be more interested in attacking an anti-scum rule (this is crap reasoning as has been mentioned by many players many times). Starting in post #159, FT begins bickering with Muffin over the Rule 6 Katsuki vote, leading to a vote on Muffin at #178, reasoning being that Muffin was present, with the underlying reasoning being that Muffin was defending Katsuki for making a pro-scum argument about Rule 6, so by association Muffin is scum. This goes on for some time. At post #336 there is the switch to Ross (while calling Selkies town without explaining why). The Ross vote is unexplained, but later FT asks for other people's thoughts on Ross before he will give his own. In #327 says Selkies, SSK, Bert, and Goodfather are town, but doesn't say why. In #341 he says his Muffin vote was because Muffin was overcompensating in the Katsuki defense, going so far as to say Katsuki was TOWN because of that argument. In #414 he gives his reason for voting Ross, which boils down to Ross using IIOA, and that Ross's posts seem "fake". Also calls out Ross for saying we should go after easy lynches because they (Aronis and SSK) "could" be scum. After defending his delayed-reasoning for the Ross vote, he calls a Ross/Muffin/Katsuki scumteam in #449. Posts a full list of reads in #457 consistent with past reads. Strangely claims that one post is all that is necessary to determine a read - unless it's a major screwup I don't think that's true, but whatever. Most posts since have been consistent with this without adding much. In #633 he responds to Notscience's post-by-post calling out Aronis. In the response he effectively just calls Aronis "weak town", saying weak townies spend their time trying to survive as well, rather than scumhunt. His defense boils down to Aronis being stupid, and therefore town, somehow? (as above, I say Null/VI). Spends a lot of time after this asking other players for their reads.
I'm getting a town lean from all of this. Yeah, the Katsuki/Muffin thing was stupid, but considering how long FT kept it up, and considering how controversial it wound up being, it seems town, because scum would have let go eventually, while FT still stands by it. This is probably just FT being stubborn, but scum have a strong reason to NOT be stubborn, so town points. I also like the constantly demanding people for reads thing, it keeps people on their toes. The only major gripe is the Ross non-explanation-for-vote thing, which just seemed very weird. As I said before, I don't think FT was stupid enough to do something that overtly scummy if he was scum, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, especially since he did follow up with (at least seemingly-though-out) reasoning later. FT's reads have also been remarkably consistent, which is a plus.
Town
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Idiotking
This would be kind of pointless.
Hell if I know, I didn't read my PM
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Kabooom
Joined at #254, gave an unreasoned vote for Selkies in #355, actively refused to scumhunt in #435, and proddodged in #612.
Lurker is lurking.
Null/Anti-town
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Katsuki
Made the oft-mentioned statement that Rule 6 was anti-scum in #24. Voted Selkies in #253, no reasoning. Said SSK's defense of Aronis based on newness was "interesting". Blatant active lurking ever since.
Lurking is bad. ACTUALLY SAYING YOU ARE GOING TO INTENTIONALLY LURK FOR MULTIPLE DAYS is worse. Also, voting. What do YOU think my read is?
Scum/Actively Playing Against Win-con If Town
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MafiaSSK
Bunch of RVS chatter at first, though a decent point about how Selkies-town shouldn't be classifying players as strong/weak. Said Katsuki was giving Nat pre-game advice about Rule 6 rather than being scummy (post #131), but then sheeps FT's Katsuki vote in #135. In #166 sheeps Muffin's counterargument about Katsuki Rule 6 thing and goes back to voting Selkies (was the RVS vote). Reasoning (per #172) being gut. More chatter. Says Muffin is town in #202, later says Muffin is overdefending Katsuki, and votes Muffin (following Selkies' reasoning) in #231. Defends Aronis from Cabd's attack in #236, saying Aronis is new, and thus town? I guess? Later in #240 says the defense was just because new people wouldn't explain their scumreads (oh come on, you can't ALL be new, people). Note that Cabd's vote was unexplained, so why did SSK assume that was the reason? #263 was the start of our little adventure, ultimately leading to a wallpost that I assume was supposed to be impressive in length. Basically lurked until #467, when he said he wasn't going to respond to me anymore (so I guess that's lurking too). Nothing much since then, still seems pretty intent on Muffin and nobody else.
I still don't like the sheeping, because it's weaksauce and lets you coast without scumhunting. And coasting is what SSK has been doing pretty much the entire game. Has ONLY focused on Muffin the entire time, from what I've seen. Defense of Aronis was strange, not just because of how unwarranted it was, but because he automatically assumed Cabd was voting because of the lack of explanation for scumreads. It seems overeager, and thus scummy. While I share the view that Aronis is newbie and thus his scumtells seem to largely be newbie mistakes, I don't think this absolves Aronis of anything; I'd be OK with an Aronis policy lynch. SSK seems to think otherwise. Town props for not breaking under my pressure outweighed by general scumminess.
Leaning Scum
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notscience
Replaced in at #600. Votes Aronis in #615, doesn't give a reason beyond quoting Aronis' out-of-nowhere Muffin vote (though it does sort of speak for itself). Calls out SSK's defense of Aronis as being lynchworthy if Aronis flips scum. Calls Katsuki town for also calling out SSK and asking why people think she is scum. #616, calls me out for posting IIOA (which I admit is something I have a tendency to default to on D1, though if my #261 counts as IIOA this post is gonna make him shit bricks). Also doesn't seem to like policy lynches. Asks why there aren't any wagons on me or Aronis. Seems to inexplicably take a liking to Bert without showing any reason why that should be a thing. Votes Aronis again in #621, just to be double-sure, I guess. Does a post-by-post analysis of Aronis' play in #629, with the takeaway being "He's hardcore lurking and trying to sit in the background and push popular wagons in an attempt to blend in and survive". More explanation of thoughts in #730, in response to questions from FT. More stuff, later calls folks out for not posting a lot.
I hate to say it, but this looks town to me. Very prompt catch-up post, latches on to Aronis immediately and doesn't let go, actually posts reasons for his scumtells (at least when asked) and the reasons make sense. My major complaints are playstyle/gametheory complaints (for example, I like policy lynches by preference, but he seems to think it's scummy) (also I don't like people who make a lot of very little posts, I like few, big posts), and obviously those aren't scumtells. The only big, potentially legitimate issue is the kneejerk Bert and Katsuki town reads, but I'm trying to shelf my bitter hatred of gut reads for this game, else I go mad. However, treating Bert like they are obviously town together is obnoxious, and is a major factor in my thinking there is a connection. Other than that though, everything seems perfectly town.
Town
Will post reads on Ross, Selkies, Goodfather, and Muffin tomorrow/Saturday, but as it sits (before I determine those reads), I would lynch Aronis on policy, Bert for actively calling attention to past bad play as a ploy to woo town into thinking he's town, or Katsuki for just generally being awful. SSK would wait until I saw an Aronis flip, due to a major part of the case against him being the silly Aronis defense.
Some games in the past I've been in have had 6-7 people or more that you would consider VI/anti-town/playing against WinCon, if we were to use what you used in your first reads list. So it's hard to lynch them all and hope to have a good win rate... There are all kinds of players and playstyles.
