Open 535: Enemy of My Enemy

[Aegor]

Replacements: PLEASE help kick-start our discussion.

[beastcharizard]

Now pwople participate and get of DP. It's so fucking obvious he's not scum.

It is? How?

[bubbajack8]

Omfg. Read. I've explained it.

[beastcharizard]

I must have missed it. Can you point me to the POSTS where you did?

[Aegor]

Just ISOd. Bubba switched from 50/50 on DP to strong townread with no justification.

[thenewearth]

Zekrom25 replaces erneiz_hyde

[bubbajack8]

Just ISOd. Bubba switched from 50/50 on DP to strong townread with no justification.

8 is odd, Burke, are you assuming that scum would give the results to other scum?

10 I see no need for a second RVS vote. Also, this defeats the purposic of having the Amnesic PRs.

29Scumpost. "Wait is this serious" captain obvious post. Rational just made my scumlist.

37 Why is this a scum tell?

38 again, what is to be gained by faking stupidity?

50 Jingle hydra has a point, this is the fake dumbtell that actually matters.

53 this is hypocritical from the guy who called a "fake dumb tell"

59 feels rather odd to me. I hate seeing the "Why arent you voting x or y" from TvK because while it sounds like contribution when its really not.

63 Obvious joke taken seriously by bubba. Discredit much? This post just pretty much tried to make Team 9 look bad without actual scumhunting.

Early town reads: Team 9, Jordan

Im not even sure if RM is serious with the OMGUS accusation or not.. SMH

80 So Shockwave, youre not going to explain what made you uneasy about 60 and just claim gut? Furthermore, if you think TvK is scum driving attention away from his scum buddy, you kinda have to say why you think TvK and Team 9 are scum together.

87 Seriously, people take things wayyy to seriously in RVS

I completely disagree with Jingle's whole "RVS must have a small hint of truth".

97 Alright TvK. Is town too.

99 Holy crap this hyde post is scummy as hell. Comments on post 62 uselessly, its fake contribution. His analysis of the TSO unvote is terrible, because RVS wagons make up a wagon, you must keep them there? First you have to tell us why the wagon is good to begin with. Then. I ask you this, why is a wagon good when it is built up from RVS votes instead of legit votes? And the opportunistic comparison of players without explanation. Horrific. Lastly, his whole "clearing" of RM with the whole "red herring idea"

VOTE: erneiz_hyde
Sheep me.

Meh, I kind of like beastcharizard's attack but i think Banakai's responses are genuine.

Also lurking entails I've actually been following the game.

Holy crap, RM. Be FUCKING useful dammit.

And Banakai bought it as a legit scum claim. Now it looks scummy but would you guys think ACTUAL scum would do that?

Scum reads:
erneiz
Bubba
RM
Shockwave

How can DP be scum if DB was town. This is town. I mean I can't get over how town DB sounded.

You don't call this justification? Get outta here.

I must have missed it. Can you point me to the POSTS where you did?

ffs.

You realize that without the ww vote a lynch is damn near impossible right? there are 3 town players and it's 4 to lynch. If it's a "town only" lynch guess what. You're either A: Not going to get a lynch, or B: Get a lynch with scum on the wagon. Guess which option is better for town.

NONE OF THEM. You are so anti-town it's ridiculous.

This is why DP is not a good lynch as well.

I can always hammer. But the town is responsible for getting to L-1. That seems perfectly reasonable.

And given that several players are MIA, entirely appropriate.

I swear it's like town doesn't even want to put fucking effort in to this game.

This game is in a shithole right now. no offense TnE

[Zekrom25]

i'm currently reading this

[Aegor]

Bubba, you still have not explained why DP is town. You simply asserted that he "sounded town."

[bubbajack8]

And No one's presented good arguments on why he's scum. You want to throw away a lynch on someone *I*'m personally not sure on you do that.

[Zekrom25]

Oh my god. I've figured this game out.

There's 2 scum on the WW right now. Otherwise Mind would have hammered. NO one would suspect someone on a hammer right now. So this makes everyone not on the wagon town.

Town: Mind, Daniel, bubba
WW: Aegor.

Since I think JD is town by POE erniez is scum.

Town: Mind,

Daniel, bubba, JD

Scum:

beast,

ernie
WW:

Aegor.

I could be dead wrong with Mind just playing a good scum game, and JD COULD be scum. But I doubt that. Colored is what I'm 100% confident on. Notice ernie and Mind aren't colored. I'm not 100% on them, but I'm pretty confident.

@bubba why did you provide a self read ?

[bubbajack8]

To show how confident I am in the colored.

[beastcharizard]

Are you still confident in those reads? If yes then why are you not voting me?

Also, at one point you entertained the idea that DB/DP could be scum but now that it doesn't look like that lynch is going to go through you are backing down from it. You are fence sitting. You are not trying to make a strong point that they are town.

[bubbajack8]

They've changed little. I also said earlier it was EH + (beast, DP) As I reviewed DP again I noticed he wasn't entirelly scummy.

Oh yes I'm fencesitting the past oh

300

posts.

[thenewearth]

Vote Count

bubbajack8 (0) -
DoctorPepper (2) - Jordan_Downey, beastcharizard
beastcharizard (0) -
Zekrom25 (1) - bubbajack8
Aegor (0) -
Jordan_Downey (1) - DoctorPepper

Not Voting - Zekrom25, Aegor

4 people's voices are needed to lynch

(expired on 2014-01-29 20:30:00) (On hold)

[beastcharizard]

You are. But I don't want you lynched because you are the most vocal person in the thread.

If we aren't going to decide on a lynch together can we no lynch? I know it is a risk but we don't auto lose if we no lynch.

[bubbajack8]

4-2-1 now. (I can fucking count! )

ww, maf kill town.

2-2-1

ww kill maf maf kill town

3-1-1

Maf kill ww ww kill maf

4-1

Maf kill town ww nk (and vice versa)

3-2-1

I'm sorry but can you point out the good solution that is most probable?

[beastcharizard]

You still can't count. It is 3-2-1. We have 6 people alive at this time.

WW, Mafia kill town.

1-2-1 mafia wins

WW kill mafia, mafia kills town

2-1-1

No lynch is forced hoping for crosskill

Mafia kill ww, ww kills mafia

3-1 MYLO so we would probably no lynch at this point to narrow down the suspect pool.

Mafkia kill town/ww nk (or vice versa)

2-2-1 MYLO but we would have to lynch to have any shot at winning.

Mafia kills WW, ww nk

3-2 LYLO

WW kills mafia, mafia nk

3-1-1 go for a scum lynch to have WW cornered. Could No lynch and hope for crossfire though.

We already put all hope of winning on the shoulders of the WW by not lynching them when I got the guilty so we have to hope they hit scum. At that point it is most likely prisoner's dilemma because they one that doesn't shoot the other one loses no matter what. So it is a mind game. If WW shoots town then town loses no matter what. If we lynch wrong here, we pretty much lose no matter what as well. We would need the WW to shoot mafia in every scenario to even stand a chance so if we can't agree on a lynch then I see no problem with a no lynch.

Lynch town today:

2-2-1

WW, mafia kill town(not same person)

2-1 mafia wins

WW, mafia kill same town or someone NKs

2-1-1 mafia wins

Mafia kills ww, ww kills mafia

2-1 LYLO

mafia kills WW, WW nks

2-2 mafia wins

WW kills mafia, mafia nks

2-1-1 No lynch pray for crossfire

We lynch mafia:

3-1-1

WW, mafia kill town (not same person)

1-1-1 town doesn't win

WW, mafia kill same person or someone NKs

2-1-1 Pretty much we have to no lynch to have a shot at winning

Mafia kill WW, WW kills mafia

2 town wins

mafia kills ww, ww nks (or vice versa)

3-1 MYLO/no lynch to narrow down suspect pool

We can't lynch WW because that is auto scum win.

[bubbajack8]

Wow. I'm a dumbass.

Anyway this is What's going to happen if we no lynch: 3-2 LYLO

[thenewearth]

Misaka Mikoto replaces Doctorpepper

yay railgun

I will give you 5 days extention.

(Yes 5 days)

So both can get a chance to get comfy.

New Deadline: (expired on 2014-02-08 10:47:00)

[Misaka Mikoto]

Okay. Instead of reading the last 30 pages for now (I will later), I think it would be a good idea to determine if we should even lynch at all.

So, as noted, it's 3-2-1 at the moment.

Whatever we do, town can not lynch the Werewolf. If we lynch a Werewolf, then Maf kill, it's 2-2, mafia win. If the Werewolf gets pushed to L-1, I think it's probably in their best interests to claim; scum will probably hammer even if you claim townie, either in the hope that you're lying, or in order to force the mislynch through. You'll probably get lynched just claiming VT anyway. Claiming Werewolf will get any town off your wagon, since it's a matter of life-or-death for the town in this scenario. REGARDLESS of what happens today, we are completely dependent upon the werewolf kill in order to salvage this game.

So if we lynch, there are three options-

We hit town: If we lynch town it's 2-2-1. And it will be completely dependent upon the NK- if Maf kills Werewolf and Werewolf kills town, it's 1-2, Maf wins. If Maf and Werewolf same-kill town, it's 1-2-1, Maf still win. If Werewolf kills maf and maf kills town, it's 2-1-1. Now, if we lynch town and both parties crosskill, it will be 2-1, and town will be at lylo and need to lynch correctly to win.

We lynch mafia today: it's 3-1-1. If both kills hit town, it's 1-1-1. If one kill hits Werewolf/Mafia and one hits town it's 2-1, lylo. If they both crosskill, town wins.

We lynch Werewolf: Auto-maf win.

Now, let's say we NL. 3-2-1 going into night. In which case there are the following options:

- Both hit town:
If both hit townies, then it's 1-2-1, mafia wins. If werewolf kill hits maf and Maf kill hits werewolf then It's 2-1 lylo. Now, if they hit same townie it's 2-2-1.

- Werewolf hits Mafia, Mafia hits town: Then it's 2-1-1 going into tomorrow.
- Both hit same town: Then it's 2-2-1 going into tomorrow. best option is to NL. If we lynch town in this scenario, then it's 1-2-1, maf wins. If we lynch werewolf in this scenario, it's 2-2, Maf wins. If we lynch Maf in this scenario, it's 2-1-1, and we pray that both parties crosskill for a town win.

- Mafia hits Werewolf, Werewolf hits Mafia: Then it's 2-1, lylo.
- Mafia hits Werewolf, Werewolf hits town: 2-2, maf wins.

So, if we lynch, amount of scenarios in which we can survive until tomorrow: 5/8
If we no lynch, amount of scenarios we can survive until tomorrow: 5/8

I'm sick and dizzy so my math may be off here, but looking at sheer possibilities, the amount of outcomes in which we lynch and survive to the next day are identical to the amount of outcomes in which we no lynch and survive to the next day. The thing is that if we lynch, we NEED NEED NEED to hit mafia. Otherwise a Mafia win is basically guaranteed.

Anybody correct me if my probabilities listing is off here; I'm not great at this sort of thing.

[bubbajack8]

Hey best, you think that slot's town yet?

[Aegor]

There are six players: 3v2v1. Clearly there is no disadvantage to lynching. We do not even need to lynch mafia since there is a chance I will kill mafia tonight. In fact, by lynching, we reduce the pool, which is good.

Really looking forward to the actual comments on the game from the replacements.

[Misaka Mikoto]

There are six players: 3v2v1. Clearly there is no disadvantage to lynching. We do not even need to lynch mafia since there is a chance I will kill mafia tonight. In fact, by lynching, we reduce the pool, which is good.

I don't necessarily agree. If we kill town today, then we are even more completely dependent upon you hitting scum than if we NL. No matter what, if you miss, we lose, if we lynch town. Whereas if we NL, we only lose if you both hit townies. And I must admit that I'd rather minimize the impact something completely out of my control has on my win chances. I'm not necessarily against a lynch for today, but I'd want an actual strong, convincing case on somebody before I pushed for it. If somebody has made such a case I'd love to see it.

[Aegor]

If you no lynch today, you are equally dependent on my hitting a scum -- if I miss, we lose. Mafia can guarantee that I must hit scum by nightkilling me.