Open 544: Tit for Tat (Game Over)

[KingdomAces]

Vote Count 2.22

Hayate Yagami (4) - neil1113, Ankamius, Saki, Titus[L-1]

neil1113 (3) –Hayate Yagami, MTD, jon_h61
Ankamius (1) dopog


Not Voting (1) –Lorantheceae

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2014-02-16 20:32:00)

[Titus]

@dopg/Loran, I find that post as a reads reversal post. If I am wrong, my position isn't cemented kinda deal. I hate those, but they aren't alignment indicative.

[neil1113]

Dopog: I'd strongly recommend you reready our view of Hayate. Basing your decision (main decision) off of playing style (scum wouldn't do this...) is dangerous. Everybody's playing style is different, as town and as scum. Assuming somebody is town because of your assumption of playing style doesn't seem to be the best way to develop your reads...

As for extension, we have 24 hours left. That's our "extension" I believe.

[jon_h61]

I still think the vig should go ahead and shoot me, it'll completely cut off that line of speculation from them/(him, if I'm right and I think I am) about me gambiting. It's a pretty crappy line of reasoning to go down, but if neil gets voted off the island and I get vigged it'll give scum a lot less places to hide.

[MTD]

I still think the vig should go ahead and shoot me, it'll completely cut off that line of speculation from them/(him, if I'm right and I think I am) about me gambiting. It's a pretty crappy line of reasoning to go down, but if neil gets voted off the island and I get vigged it'll give scum a lot less places to hide.

I think vig should shoot you

only

if we lynch neil and he is town or if we lynch hayate and he is scum.

[Saki]

enough of this day

VOTE: Hayate

[jon_h61]

Saki id already voting Hayete.

@ Titus

If

neil would flip scum Today, who would you be leaning towards as to the last scum?

[jon_h61]

um I'm wrong. That's a lynch.

[jon_h61]

Aurgh I guess that's why we get vote counts, so we don't make these kind of stupid mistakes that's L-1, I believe.

[Titus]

@Jon, what I'd be doing is I would be looking through the VCs to determine who voted Neil and why. I have no intentions of doing that pre-flip as it would take a lot of time, especially for an assumption I believe to be false. I'd be looking for someone who did everything in their power to avoid voting neil without defending him hard (what I am doing). Scum will rarely bus in this scenario IMO, so that's who I would be looking at. Gut says Hayate or Ank though.

Way to ruin a hammer gambit man.

[jon_h61]

I'd almost bet all the scum's on Hayete.

[jon_h61]

Sorry, next time I see one I'll keep my mouth shut for awhile/

[Titus]

Jon, similar question. Suppose neil is town, who would you look at for scum?

[dopog]

Gonna push that post back further poops
Really weirdly busy weekend.

@neil: I dunno I don't think it's posing style. More the way (my perspective obv) the way the towniness manifests itself in style, word choice, level of aggression. I hope that's not what the read is based off of (ps) cause that just leads to scumreading people you dislike. I'll think about it blah blah blah

Cya then

[neil1113]

Sounds good Dopog.

Also, I saw the gambit, that's why I didn't respond or say anything. I was waiting to see if anyone bit. (Bit? Bite? Bited? Grr...)

[dopog]

hi!!!!!!

@Titus: So basically the cele post seems to discredit the vote, whereas MTD could maybe be seen as geniune inquiry. Perhaps very similar to what I said before rather than even consider the vote cele is just saying "it's not much of a reason". Discrediting another vote with apathy/dismissiveness rather than - "that's not a good vote - x is town" or even without attempting to look into the vote reads scum behind it! If you want specifics I guess the "even less then mal" and "wanted a wagon to join, then unexplained vote" bits seem to paint motives onto a player (saki) in order to say the vote on another player (mala) is "without reason" (unexplained) "don't worry about it".

@Ankamius: When you were catching up on the thread (I'm looking at #374) what prompted you to make the notes you did? Also I guess if this question makes sense at what points during the game has MTD been in your top two scumreads? Also could you flesh out your read on saki pleaaase?
Danke

[Titus]

@dopog, A player discrediting a vote with something that is true is a null unless selective. A player casting a bad vote doesn't necessarily mean their alignment either. So sometimes it is best to leave a guide post to an odd vote. That is what it looked like Ank was doing. MTD's attack bothers me more, but his later game confusion looks townie.

[Ankamius]

@Ankamius: When you were catching up on the thread (I'm looking at #374) what prompted you to make the notes you did? Also I guess if this question makes sense at what points during the game has MTD been in your top two scumreads? Also could you flesh out your read on saki pleaaase?
Danke

Saki read was null-town for the most part basically because I didn't have any real indication of what his alignment was. My ISO shows why. Just search for null-town in it.

Lately, it turned into a more townish read because when he actually

does

post content, it looks like it had enough thought put into it and not just whatever he could think of in 5 seconds. It would be easier for scum to do the latter than the former and it probably wouldn't amass as much extra suspicion as it otherwise would.

MTD being in my top scumreads is recent. My recent vote on him was partially for this reason, but partially because I wanted to see how he would react. If he had reacted a certain way, I would've written him off as town instead. You can probably guess that he didn't.

I don't understand the notes question.

[Saki]

um I'm wrong. That's a lynch.

@Jon, what I'd be doing is I would be looking through the VCs to determine who voted Neil and why. I have no intentions of doing that pre-flip as it would take a lot of time, especially for an assumption I believe to be false. I'd be looking for someone who did everything in their power to avoid voting neil without defending him hard (what I am doing). Scum will rarely bus in this scenario IMO, so that's who I would be looking at. Gut says Hayate or Ank though.

Way to ruin a hammer gambit man.

Also, I saw the gambit, that's why I didn't respond or say anything. I was waiting to see if anyone bit. (Bit? Bite? Bited? Grr...)

I'm questioning the motives behind these lines.
They all seem scummy as fuck.

UNVOTE:

[jon_h61]

@ Titus If neil flipped Town I'll probably be vigged.

Hopefully there's a dead thread. I'm just not looking forward to hearing about it being all my fault from neil if he flips Town.

But if I was alive Day 3, (and neil flipped Town) I wouldn't defend against a lynch from that point. I'd look deeper into Ank who sometimes looks Town and other times very scummy. Saki is just flipping a coin for me. I'm second guessing myself on your slot, but I seem to recall you said something similar about me. It'll suck if you're scum. For the longest time you were my strongest Town read. Hayette hasn't even checked the website in six days, so hopefully the fourth time is charmed. I'd re-re-ISO all the players in that slot.

The above is dependent on neil flipping Town, but I very much doubt that will happen.

I have MTD strongly Town. Loran is a close second. Dopog is redeeming Hop's slot somewhat, and I'd be interested in seeing more posts from him.

Tomorrow (Day 3) if someone would explain this gambit Saki was supposed to have done and what it would have gained Town, I'd appreciate it. Maybe I'm a little slow in my old age, I don't get it. Even if I'm dead I'll still read it, and keep up with the game.

@ MOD Is there a Dead Thread?

I don't see how that question is relevant.

[jon_h61]

@ Loren I followed along closely on your Tit For Tat game, and fast skimmed the others. I'm gonna bank on you being Town, it's all just an educated guess in the end. I enjoyed that game , by the way.

[neil1113]

So if I somehow get lynched today, and flip town, and you get vigged (and flip town), then the Mafia get their kill and so someone else comes up flipping town.... that's 3 dead townies in one phase. How is it not the smartest play to lynch Hayaki who will flip (scum), and then vig you who according to you should flip opposite (town), and then the Mafia kill off someone (town), so two townies die instead of three? If you believe the first is what's going to go down, wouldn't it be anti-town to place your vote on me?

Just curious.

[neil1113]

EBWOP: ^^^ The above post was directed toward Jon.

[jon_h61]

If I thought you were Town, if no one will budge I'll go and vote Hayate's slot.
This next day's gonna be interesting, no matter where I'm sitting. I'm going to wait for awhile longer.

Hayate, I ask for you're claim before I hammer. You got about an hour!

[jon_h61]

We have a couple of hours, anyone have any last words.

Especially the slots we don't hear from often. You know what I'd love. A game with no replacements, and everyone spoke at least three times a day.
That way I wouldn't have to worry so much about flooding the thread.

I have five pages of notepad on you of observations, they're just written as they came up over the game. You have a lot of notes, I'll put mine in spoilers if you do. At least a page or two. It'd end that path of suspicion on you.