Mini 1543--Natirasha's On Parole!(Game Over)

[Guyett]

I'm struggling with a 2 day hangover so I'll deal with this tomorrow

[Natirasha]

Vote Count 3.2.3

MafiaSSK(0):

Cabd(0):

Selkies(0):

zMuffinMan(0):

notscience(0):

The Goodfather(0):

Nachomamma8(2):

Guyett, Bert

Bert(1):

Aronis

Aronis(1):

MafiaSSK

Guyett(1):

Nachomamma8

No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(5):

Cabd, Selkies, zMuffinMan, notscience, The Goodfather

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2014-03-09 21:00:00)

[Guyett]

Vc is wrong, bert isnt voting me

[Cabd]

Possibilities on how this went down:

Scenario A: Scum roleblocker, town doctor, town nurse, town vig
Vig targets aronis
Roleblocker blocks vig
Doctor targets vig
Scum shoots vig (?)

Scenario B: Scum doctor, town nurse, town vig

Vig targets aronis
Doctor targets aronis
scum shoots.... ?



So from a probability standpoint, A makes sense, so from there, it stands that whoever scum thought I was gonna shoot is one of them, and a needed/valuable player. Otherwise, why roleblock AND kill me? I must have been a threat to them, such that blocking the doctor and shooting me wasn't enough; lest they lose their PR. You know who that suggests? Bert.

[Bert]

Good luck with that

[Bert]

biggest threat to Bert if Bert's scum: Selkies

Unless you think they're scum with me (you're townreading that hydra)

the nightmare scum team that town doesn't want to see (this is if paranoia is shining brightest): Ffery, Cabd + one of nacho/muffin.

Ffery or Nacho would be dead by now if I were scum

[Bert]

also who would actually shoot at a vig that was the obvious protect???

it all suggests SSK to me

[Guyett]

One of my posts got eated so I'll try replicate it. I'm kinda leaning towards Cabds option A there

I think SSK was left alive as he's lynch bait. Not sure why he wasn't roleblocked though :/

So Cabd and SSK are prob town.
Scum Nurse doesn't make sense in a setup where there's a compulsive N2 Vig. So Goodfather is out of the lynch pool.

One of the neighbours could be scum and in that scenario I'd be leaning towards Aronis but I suspect both are actually town.

This leaves {Selkies, Bert, notscience and Nacho}

I'm very confident that Nacho is scum and Selkies is prob scum for the manner of the wagon dispersals. Not sure between ns, bert and possibly one of the neighbours

[Bert]

I seriously doubt Cabd is even a vig, for the way he softclaimed so obviously on D1. He may be scum or another PR.

I need to reset because I'm having a hard time seeing how town-Cabd can be so wrong about reading me. Only thing is his read on me in 1436 (past game) was so terribly wrong on Day 1 that it's possible...but that was his first game in-game with me. Ffery has a much better track record (past) of reading me, and has shown transparency in doing so in past games

Plus, Nacho and Ffery are both townreading me, as are almost everyone except Muffin (who has a 2 game track record to speak of where he had me as scum the entire time in one, and as town in the other because I went suicidal (?))

If I were scum, Cabd would be threat #3 or 4. Notscience is pretty good at reading me too, all things considered.

[Bert]

ETA: Nacho has shown paranoia about Cabd, whereas Ffery hasn't shown much at all.

[Selkies]

I don't even

ou mean the wifom where I cited the very game you've brought up here as one example of the sorts of kills I favor as scum?

you're using NKA as a reason that you're town, right? it's not a tell

If you read through the first game that Cabd linked and find the Night 1 kill announcement you'll find a kill that matches the third criteria - my partner and I killed a player who claimed vanilla town at the end of day 1.

this supports what rationale of yours?

[Bert]

I don't remember why I said that.

But Cabd is using NKA of last night to use against me, so I'm using it in defense of myself in saying why it doesn't implicate me.

[Bert]

^in the post above, I'm referring to this:

So from a probability standpoint, A makes sense, so from there, it stands that whoever scum thought I was gonna shoot is one of them, and a needed/valuable player. Otherwise, why roleblock AND kill me? I must have been a threat to them, such that blocking the doctor and shooting me wasn't enough; lest they lose their PR. You know who that suggests? Bert.

[Selkies]

I keep the paranoia mostly on the inside these days. When I'm town, anyway. There are 3 paranoia inducing players in this game.

[Guyett]

who would they be?

[Selkies]

Cabd, I can see your scenario A fitting other players given your late day 2 posts.

[Cabd]

Me, nacho and notsci, would be my assumption.

[Cabd]

Cabd, I can see your scenario A fitting other players given your late day 2 posts.

I'm listening.

[Selkies]

nacho, notsci.

[Selkies]

At least from the perspective of there being a possibility you'd target one of them.

I think I'd fit a vig target too, though probably only I would see your late day 2 play encompassing it.

[zMuffinMan]

So from a probability standpoint, A makes sense

no it doesn't

[zMuffinMan]

Scum shoots vig (?)

this part, specifically

why would scum shoot the player who was 100% going to be protected if they know there's a town doc

[Aronis]

I had posted my case on Bert earlier. Grrr.

Short version of it, Ik gave Cabd a Vig pool of me SSK and Bert, so scum bert freaks out bc he might be shot and blocks and shoots at Cabd.

[Bert]

That theory is flawed, Aronis.

[zMuffinMan]

oh, also, i think my post got eaten, or maybe i thought it but didn't post it... no lynching isn't the worst idea here

i'm trying to figure out why there was no night kill last night

-> it wasn't accidental, the day starting early suggests whatever happened last night was a conscious decision
-> shooting cabd if mafiassk is town makes no sense because he was pretty much guaranteed to be targeting cabd
-> only conclusion i can really make here is there was an intentional no kill for whatever reason

lack of claimed investigative abilities means scum probably don't feel in any immediate danger so can play around with a no kill gambit for whatever wifom purposes they were aiming for. couple possibilities here:

-> mafiassk is scum and the no kill thing was an ill-thought out gambit to be like "hey there's no other reason for no kill occurring last night so i must be town who protected cabd!"
-> cabd is scum, similar reasoning
-> scum WIFOMZ trying to get us paranoid about stuff, potentially trying to get a mafiassk lynch, i dunno

side note: i do not believe the scum team has a full role blocker

or if they do, and this game is anything other than 11:2, then holy fuck at nati's sense of balance

anyway, tired. will read stuffs tomorrow