Mini 1543--Natirasha's On Parole!(Game Over)

[Natirasha]

Vote Count 3.2.6

MafiaSSK(0):

Cabd(0):

Selkies(1):

Bert

zMuffinMan(0):

notscience(0):

The Goodfather(0):

Nachomamma8(1):

Guyett

Bert(1):

Aronis

Aronis(2):

MafiaSSK, The Goodfather

Guyett(1):

Nachomamma8

No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(4):

Cabd, Selkies, zMuffinMan, notscience

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2014-03-09 21:00:00)

[Bert]

notscience notscience NOTSCIENCE not science nots cien ce notty notscience notscience notscience

[Natirasha]

Oh yeah, prodding Aronis. This is technically his third prod, but I'm not particularly interested in finding replacements so I'm issuing a one-time reprieve.

[MafiaSSK]

I think we probably are all together. It's hard to call Nacho for sure due to not a lot of data.

Meant you and Cabd as a scumteam potentially. Cabd tossing that theory of me-scum out because of the lack of a NK is just like tossing out random stuff to see if it goes well with others, and that's while seeming to have no other real suspicions of his own today.

I also wish he had revealed what his intentions were during the steps he took during that super-awkward "dance." Doesn't it seem really inconclusive?

If we were a scum team, Cabd would probably have bussed me, with my full blessing. That's actually a pretty minor point for town-Cabd though. As scum, I don't believe he'd concoct a voluntary fake-claim that makes his continued survival a question mark.

I wouldn't expect Cabd to give up anything specific about what he's looking for in a dance. It's an arms race.

Actually, if you'll recall, Cabd did vote you at the start of D2 and then stopped without any type of reasoning for or against.

[Selkies]

If we were a scum team, Cabd would probably have bussed me, with my full blessing. That's actually a pretty minor point for town-Cabd though.

Maybe, maybe not. Definitely a moot point. Where has he made a genuine push on someone for a lynch so far?

IMO his day 1 push on Aronis was genuine. His day 1 push on me was genuine. I think his early day 2 push was a reaction test, though I didn't think so at the time. I'm not sure what he was looking for from me, but if he hadn't found it, he wouldn't have backed off. His SSK push was genuine.

Why do you think the pushes haven't been genuine?

He saw the wagon, and looking back most realized that it wasn't going anywhere if he didn't hop on. His "sorting" of you was long-winded, which lead to indifference and indirectly derailed the wagon as we joined other wagons in hope of a deadline lynch.

Someday, Cabd and I will be on the same scum team again. I'm not going to tell you any more about what to look for when that happens.

As scum, I don't believe he'd concoct a voluntary fake-claim that makes his continued survival a question mark.

Cabd isn't predictable, and he has a history of fakeclaiming, so.... no, I don't buy this.

SELL

. Also, your townread on him was super sketchy. You rambled through your "philosophies" about town-cabd and announced him as likely town on Day 1 without much of a reason.

Re the bolded, no. If you're town, then you engage him and you figure him out. That's not what you're doing here. As far as my sketchy day 1 read, I don't plan to ever go into detail about how I develop an early read on him.

Don't you think something's off about him pawning some bullshit case on me due to NKA? And he's not even voting me or saying anything to make me think he's reanalyzing me.

This bit has some meat to it, but not necessarily scum meat. I'm kinda waiting to see where he goes with it.

I might say more later. This feels really close to stomping through a line of questioning.

[Selkies]

I think we probably are all together. It's hard to call Nacho for sure due to not a lot of data.

Meant you and Cabd as a scumteam potentially. Cabd tossing that theory of me-scum out because of the lack of a NK is just like tossing out random stuff to see if it goes well with others, and that's while seeming to have no other real suspicions of his own today.

I also wish he had revealed what his intentions were during the steps he took during that super-awkward "dance." Doesn't it seem really inconclusive?

If we were a scum team, Cabd would probably have bussed me, with my full blessing. That's actually a pretty minor point for town-Cabd though. As scum, I don't believe he'd concoct a voluntary fake-claim that makes his continued survival a question mark.

I wouldn't expect Cabd to give up anything specific about what he's looking for in a dance. It's an arms race.

Actually, if you'll recall, Cabd did vote you at the start of D2 and then stopped without any type of reasoning for or against.

Yep. My above reply to Bert covers my thoughts on that.

[Bert]

Why do you think the pushes haven't been genuine?

agree to disagree, but i will elaborate on it when i have time tonight. i wanna get this game moving again though since it is sleepwalking ever since outage

If you're town, then you engage him and you figure him out. That's not what you're doing here.

well i have commented about his read on me and i got nothing out of him, he kinda just ignored it for the past week so....

I'm not going to tell you any more about what to look for when that happens.

good cos the self-meta on "if cabd and i were scum together" wasn't compelling

[Bert]

IMO his day 1 push on Aronis was genuine. His day 1 push on me was genuine. I think his early day 2 push was a reaction test, though I didn't think so at the time. I'm not sure what he was looking for from me, but if he hadn't found it, he wouldn't have backed off. His SSK push was genuine.

Why do you think the pushes haven't been genuine?

This post is in response to the above quote in #2804.

Cabd, do you have any serious reasons for your selkies vote?

Nope!

How was this push on you genuine on D1, ffery?? He basically voted you a couple of times with absolutely no reasoning whatsoever except to "sort you", and then let go. Plus, his vote wavered and it's not like he held it there until you produced something. He latched on and off twice, and extremely early on.

Then, his Aronis push was based on "I didn't like your first set of posts." He never quite explains why other than calling Aronis's opening cheeky and not excusable for a newbie.

Spoiler:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aronis

Oh hell no we're not.

Then you're way behind this game.

Talk to me about Aronis plz.

In a bit sure. I just didn't like the entry, nor did I like the "omg cut him slack" out of left field from SSK, reminds me of "we the purple" where I did that shit to the zazzier alt scumbud.

I think you're scum because of your first set of posts.

I'd still like for you to talk about your Aronis read.

He's scum. What of it?

The pushes look more random than accurate. He doesn't really ask Aronis anything, and it doesn't look like he is looking hard. The votes don't really apply pressure. Limited discussion + huge suspicion = doesn't mesh. This is totally different from my problem with your (Ffery's) play. I'm surprised he's not re-evaluating that read either considering part of Aronis's scumminess is playstyle (like Katsuki's).

The only suspicion that he has had coming into today is "Woah, Bert is probably scum after lots of thinking about the night actions." No follow-up, no pursuing other targets or questioning. If he really thought I was scum, why wouldn't he be wagoning me by now?

Just couldn't resist fake claiming PR could ya?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ssk

His SSK push was genuine.

How? He latched onto the wagon only after SSK claimed to have protected you Night 1. Before that, when others (including me) were busy wagoning him and pressuring him, he didn't really join in. He barely did anything to "push" enough so that you would think it's genuine.

[Selkies]

Cabd's posts that I thought indicated that he was seriously considering me as scum started with these two.

Am I missing something?

I'm waiting for you to give your reads list, it's been absent this entire day phase and it worries me deeply.

I'm starting to regret derailing the selkies wagon earlier, ffery, so if you're town you need to be

really

town right now.

And that led straight in to his initial stance on day 2.

I don't know precisely what changed his mind about me early day 2, but I did not get the sense that it was an unequivocal town read, and I felt like he was testing me in other interactions, not just the end-of-day dance. I don't expect that I'll find out what changed his mind until after whatever it is ceases to be a town-indicator for me. And that's exactly how I feel about my own markers for his town and scum games.

Re Aronis you missed the most explicit posts about his day 1 reasons. They were in an exchange with SSK about him.

The SSK push nearly got SSK lynched and did force him to claim.

It's about the timing and tempo of the game. Bert, I think you can see it even though you don't like the lack of walling about it. Cabd was basically calling the wagons on day 2. People followed and let him because of the timing. And maybe because he was bleeding vig tells and had been bleeding them basically since his first post of the game where he said his votes counted 3 times as much as anyone else's. That kind of assertiveness is often a PR tell and it affects the game state whether the player crumbs or not.

It should be for him to answer this stuff, but you keep addressing it to me.

I think most players have disconnected from this game a little due to the downtime, loss of posts, and time off-the-clock while waiting for them to reappear. It's past time to get back into this.

[Selkies]

No, I'm misremembering. The reason Cabd came down on SSK like a ton of bricks was the combo of trajectory on me with claiming to have protected me.

[Bert]

It should be for him to answer this stuff, but you keep addressing it to me.

It's ok cos I don't expect him to answer that stuff anyways (if he wanted to, he would have a week ago), plus you are familiar with his play as you hydra with him

That kind of assertiveness is often a PR tell and it affects the game state whether the player crumbs or not.

The crumbing just seems so....unnecessary...it's like Venmar crumbing Doc or Wake88 crumbing tracker so hard on D1/D2 in 1526. A Vig is dead meat if there's a roleblocker or scum wants him/her killed. It's risky to do such things, but I've seen it all I guess - ruins the role's utility...it's safe for scum to do, as they know there's no SK due to Nat saying 3 vs. 10 at the beginning of the game?

Cabd's personality is quite assertive, so sheer confidence isn't really a sign of a PR for him is it?

Re Aronis you missed the most explicit posts about his day 1 reasons. They were in an exchange with SSK about him.

Oh I recall it now that you said it. Missed it when looking through...see it now, will quote it in a bit

[The Goodfather]

No, I'm misremembering. The reason Cabd came down on SSK like a ton of bricks was the combo of trajectory on me with claiming to have protected me.

I think he specifically said that he didn't like that ask protected he had a weak read on you. He said it didn't make sense since you were not his strongest town read. Something like that

[Selkies]

Cabd's personality is quite assertive, so sheer confidence isn't really a sign of a PR for him is it?

Not all by itself, no.

[Cabd]

Cabd's personality is quite assertive, so sheer confidence isn't really a sign of a PR for him is it?

Not all by itself, no.

Bert, you'd have better luck walking into fort Knox than getting data from her on how she goes about reading me.

[Bert]

Why is that?

[Cabd]

Why is that?

Coke doesn't go posting it's secret formula on Pepsi's facebook page.

[Aronis]

I like the reasoning against Cabd, but then I'm always changing opinions and wishy-washy.

[Aronis]

Why is that?

Coke doesn't go posting it's secret formula on Pepsi's facebook page.

Maybe the problem is that she doesn't have a formula and decides using this method:

If she is scum and Cabd is town, then read Cabd as scum.

If she and Cabd are scum, then read Cabd as town.

If she is town, roll a ((insert number of players) Example 13 then minus herself, so 12) sided dice, then depending on the number of scum (example 3), so in this case if it's 1, 2, or 3 Cabd is scum, if not Cabd is town. I cracked the code!

And so I guess that is her formula then? I'm confusing myself.

[Selkies]

My general field theory: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _Algorithm

How it applies to a particular player in a particular game is the "art" part.

[Bert]

^interesting article - thx

[notscience]

BERT

I WILL POST TOMORROW

THIS I SWEAR

[Bert]

I liked the town-model and scum-model explanations re: article.

[Bert]

BERT

I WILL POST TOMORROW

THIS I SWEAR

[MafiaSSK]

So this is boring.

Let's have a discussion.

I say Aronis is scum. You say what?

[Cabd]

I could see myself voting there today yes.