NY 170: Georgetown II (Game Over)

[Thor665]

I also don't even recall him being loud or proud about his ABR bus, but I don't recall his vote moving or even twitching either.
Which, y'know, defeats the purpose of the bus and also prevents it from looking like a desperation/distancing bus.

[Thesp]

I really feel like all of your commentary shouldn't just be taking him off the table "anytime soon" but rather simply off the table.
Listen to yourself - you're saying he was hard defending ABR...and then quick reversed suddenly?

Like...seriously, what do you think his scum plan was there? "Have to defend ABR, must protect him, watch as I crush Thor's case...oh, Thor has a case? IMMEDIATE BUS!"
I don't even understand the motivation you're pegging him with here.
Clarify?

You keep referring to this case of yours that you think converted inHimshallibe - can you quote it for me? I can't find it. I suspect it may have been lost in the Great OM NOM of '014, and could be the source of confusion in our perspectives. Page 64 onward is where I'm looking at.

(The motivation would be to slip onto the wagon on D2, then he comes out D3 on ABR as a planned "let's make this thing into a bus". After the Bulbazak lynch, he does indeed call himself confirmed. In any case, please read pages 64 and 65, and imagine someone not being aware of any pages in between, and let me know what you think.)

I believe it's not unreasonable that there may have been a scum plan for someone to look townie by bussing. (The "*confirmed*" quote early today has struck a cord with me for whatever reason, though it probably shouldn't.) I'm not ready to call anyone cleared forever in this type of game.

That said

, it's really only likely I'd look more at that if it came down to an endgame with inHimshallibe. It's still significantly more likely that inHimshallibe isn't scum with them. I don't think it's worth considering him scum right now.

I'm hesitant to even spend this much time on it because I think it might be distracting, but if it helps you ascertain my motivations, then so be it. (I mean really, we're fighting over

just how much

we think inHimshallIbe is town, rather than who scum is.)

What are your thoughts on RainbowDash today, Thor665?

[Thor665]

So you didn't think the interaction looked organic...but didn't even know where the interaction happened.

1579 and 1671 would be the interaction.

I've also already expressed my thoughts on RBD as recently as 2433 (posted...yesterday) Did I do something that made you think my reads had changed between now and then?

[Thor665]

I mean really, we're fighting over just how much we think inHimshallIbe is town, rather than who scum is.

My perception of you is not that you're presenting him as a town read in any way, shape, or form.

[Thesp]

So you didn't think the interaction looked organic...but didn't even know where the interaction happened.

1579 and 1671 would be the interaction.

I've also already expressed my thoughts on RBD as recently as 2433 (posted...yesterday) Did I do something that made you think my reads had changed between now and then?

It's not your

interaction

with inHimshallibe that I thought looked inorganic, it's his

switch

that felt that way (which came well before 1671, and I didn't see 1579 as earth-shattering, but I may be wrong). Also again, as noted earlier, I don't think I can say his switch felt inorganic because I am not privy to the lost posts.

My question about RainbowDash was perhaps a crass way to try to change the focus of our conversation from someone we both think is likely to be pro-town onto someone I think we should lynch, and to see if we could try to get some momentun on lynching RainbowDash today. I think you and I are spinning our wheels with each other on inHimshallibe at the moment.

[Thor665]

Conversely, I feel like you might be setting him up for potential lynch and am trying to see if I can discern legit town attitude in that discussion or not. I'll admit I don't feel happy with what I've found thus far and it's frustrating because you feel skeevy in this interaction.

[Thesp]

Conversely, I feel like you might be setting him up for potential lynch and am trying to see if I can discern legit town attitude in that discussion or not. I'll admit I don't feel happy with what I've found thus far and it's frustrating because you feel skeevy in this interaction.

When would this "potential lynch" be? I've got three people clearly listed well ahead of him. I've stated it's really only a consideration if it ends up in an endgame with him, and even then I'm not sure. It all stems from a question I had to you to help me try to ascertain

you

a bit better (even though I think you're still likelier town as well), otherwise I wouldn't even be talking about it. I guess I don't know what else to say.

[Thor665]

I felt I instigated this discussion because you listed him as a scum read.

[Thor665]

Looking back, I feel vindicated in my belief but feel you can be vindicated in yours as well. Meh. I just have a negative knee jerk towards questions that go nowhere apparent. Carry on.

[Aegor]

So, does anyone have any strong feelings about anything else today, or can we proceed with the lynch?

Thesp, are you strongly opposed to a non-kab lynch?

Does anyone vehemently oppose the PJ lynch?

inHim, do you have anything you want to say?

[Thesp]

Thesp, are you strongly opposed to a non-kab lynch?

Seeing that I'm voting for RainbowDash, I'm going to say no. I disagree with a petroleumjelly lynch and stated my reasons for doing so. I can quote them again if needed. I would like to see any non-voters come around and pick a vote.

[Aegor]

There is no need to restate your reasons; I already responded to them and received no response from you.

[Sotty7]

I'd like for PJ to post again at least. More from HS would be good too.

[Thor665]

@Mod - on that note can we get a petroleum prod (rimshot) it has been over 48 hours since his last post here. We are actually only about 2 hours away from your 60 hour mark as of this post.

[petroleumjelly]

No prod necessary, I've been busy the last couple nights. Going back to rereading now.

[HighShroomish]

I voted Aegor for continuity. I didn't have any one else that I felt was scummy. Until now.

UNVOTE
VOTE: SCOTTY

You were practically a non-entity until this game day. You say you aren't useless because you were on both wagons, but I've barely even noticed you all game, but I guess that feeling is mutual.

[HighShroomish]

Also, I apologize to everyone for being so apathetic this game. It's not my normal play, especially this far into a game.

[petroleumjelly]

Actually, I am going to start with an argument for why I am Town. I will stick with the Rule of Three.

I.

Chevre's Reaction Towards emogirl123

Many people seem to think Chevre was scum based on his reaction to emogirl123 on Day One. I disagree -- his reaction to her overall was fairly pro-town, even though his original vote on emogirl123

was not

very good.

As emogirl123 was being wagoned, Chevre put her at L-2 with this vote. At that point in the game, players were hypothesizing various scumteams (Nobody Special posited Sotty7 and emogirl123; Bulbazak posited Garmr and emogirl123; emogirl123 posited Sotty7 and Bulbazak). Chevre voted emogirl123 on the logic than emogirl123 flip would be particularly informative, and emogirl123 was actively not making sense. He explains in more detail in Post #314, Post #323, and Post #325.

Please actually reread this portion of the game. You can actually see how confused Chevre is by emogirl123's play. The culmination of this confusion is his eventual unvote, which is one of the more Town posts at the start of the game:

I know. I'm just fucking confised

I don't care that it's misspelled, I have had the same reaction.

I've been staring at the ceiling for like minutes, so confused by emogirl.

And it's not really that she self-voted, because I never know what to do with that. It's that she has yet again, when someone has tried to start a counterwagon to that of her own, she has gone against it. First with Maenara and now kabooooom. I don't see scum doing that.

Unvote: emogirl123

, not that I'm really pleased with emogirl's play, it's not feeling very town and it's wrecked any semblance of usefulness that Day 1 can possibly have. I do still think that lynching her would make for interesting relationship analysis, but there is no longer that same scummy feel due to her denial of two potential counterwagons to her own.

Emphasis added. Chevre's thought-process makes clear that he does not like emogirl123's play. But it also makes clear that Chevre is actively trying to determine emogirl123's alignment; he explains in detail how emogirl123's play, while confusing, does

not

make sense from a scum perspective. This causes his unvote. Chevre is the only player to unvote emogirl123 for this reason.

Furthermore -- and this should be obvious -- scum who want to distance themselves from a bad vote would simply vote for another player without drawing so much attention to the process of unvoting. It would have been the easiest thing in the world to vote any other player, and doing so would silently and effectively remove himself from the emogirl123 wagon.

Instead, Chevre is immediately attacked after his unvote. As his wagon climbs and nears completion, Albert B. Rampage tries to solidify it in Post #504, arguing that the Town cannot just keep letting wagons die off. This should heavily infer that at that stage of the game, the serious wagons were probably all on Town (the only two real wagons at that time having been emogirl123 and Chevre).

II.

Chevre's Vote and Nightkill Analyses

Please stop and

read

the following two posts from Chevre: Post #1023 and Post #1118.

Now try to imagine how scum-Chevre would go about writing these posts (or if scum-Chevre would attempt to write these posts in the first place).

In the Vote Analysis, he gives a fair reading to all votes, and makes a list of the most suspicious votes in order: Sotty7, Albert B. Rampage, emogirl123, Zekrom25 (RainbowDash), and Garmr (Thesp).

This is near the start of Day Two. Note that Chevre pretty much manages to encapsulate what the gamestate looks like now, Day Five -- the players currently up for lynching are Sotty7, RainbowDash, Thesp, and myself. The other two players on the list included a scum and a town. The list is admittedly missing Bulbazak, but it should be clear that Chevre actually, in retrospect, did a very good job of narrowing his suspicions. A Day Two list of five players is unlikely to snag all three scum players. Calling the analysis "IIoA" (or whatever) would be to ignore the conclusions he drew from the information compiled.

In the Nightkill Analysis -- easily one of the

most Protown posts of the entire game

-- Chevre discusses what the Yessiree nightkill would mean for various players. What is interesting about this post is that it almost completely rebuts his earlier Vote Count Analysis. Chevre decides that the nightkill points most towards emogirl123, OhGodMyLife (HighShroomish), and possibly Matias. He expressly thinks Albert B. Rampage is more likely to be Town because such a nightkill would be "too obvious," which also to a lesser extent applies to Brian Skies (Thor665).

The only arguable "thread" connecting the two anayses would be Chevre's continual suspicion of emogirl123. But otherwise these two posts emphasize the lack of a plan or overarching strategy, and Chevre's honest attempts to find scum.

What is especially important here is how much Chevre believes the nightkill points

away

from Albert B. Rampage being scum. Stop and consider: is that a post scum would write? It draws attention to the nightkill, and given that we know Albert B. Rampage was scum, that would be a

bad idea

for scum. Scum are

far

more likely to simply not mention the nightkill unless it is actually favorable to get the Town to mull over it and wonder,

hmm

, why

would

the scum kill Yessiree? A perfect example of why it is a bad idea for scum is Tony PF's reaction -- voting for Albert B. Rampage. The reason this could happen was because Chevre was giving an honest and complete view into the nightkill; Occam's Razor suggested Albert B. Rampage was scum.

Putting the game in further context, recall that at the end of Day One, Slandaar and Albert B. Rampage had a back-and-forth where Slandaar essentially tried to make sure Albert B. Rampage was lynched on Day Two. The scum would then be able to discuss their strategy on Night One. The chances Chevre (as scum) would approach Day Two in the manner he did pretty much does not make sense; I cannot easily make an argument for why he would make the choices he did. Scum would know and expect Albert B. Rampage would be drawing some fire.

III.

My Entrance into the Game

I will be blunt. I am a highly experienced mafia player. I have replaced into tight situations as scum and pulled off wins from them. My entrance in this game, however, is completely inapposite to scum play.

Basically, I replaced into the game just a few days before deadline. If I am scum, I would have noted straight away that my partner was the top candidate for lynch. In that situation, while there are several ways each can be done, the two most basic choices are (i) bussing my partner or (ii) diverting the lynch of my partner. My play fits with neither of those situations. As scum, I would pretty easily be able to assess the situation and act on it. However, my play (as did Chevre's) evidences the

lack of a plan

. That's because I

didn't

have a plan -- I was trying to read the game as quickly as my time allowed and determine who

I

thought was scum before the deadline hit.

It has been suggested I was "stalling." Stalling

for what

? For Bulbazak to be lynched, and then for me to get what would obviously be no Town credit, and an obviously unsatisfying entrance into the game? I

know

how to make myself "look good" if I am of a mind to. But my play in this game is not concerned with such an objective.

I

could have

tried to argue for No Lynch, but I did not. I

could have

spent more time actively arguing for

any

counterwagon to Bulbazak, but I did not. While I did end up voting for RainbowDash, I did so hours before deadline, because that was when I finished reading the game. If I were actually trying to stop a Bulbazak lynch, I would have picked somebody, argued the case with more of a plan, given time for players to change their minds, etc. I could have acted first and justified it later. It's easy to do, and it's easy to make it look natural. My reads, on the other hand, have come from reading and thinking about the game -- not from necessity.

Perhaps the biggest indicator that I am Town (not that I expect players to actually know much about my play) is how clear it is that I did not have a plan for how to approach the game. As scum, I

always, always

have a plan. (Of course I try not to make it obvious that I have a plan, but my play nevertheless is usually more confident and straightforward, precisely because I already know what I am going for long-term and I can adjust my play accordingly). This game I do not.

[HighShroomish]

I've never seen town give so many fucks about their appearance, PJ. Never.

[kabooooom]

Also, I apologize to everyone for being so apathetic this game. It's not my normal play, especially this far into a game.

appologies accepted! Make sure you dont play like this in any other game! XD

actually I appologise to everyone as well. This is not how I play.

[petroleumjelly]

I've never seen town give so many fucks about their appearance, PJ. Never.

Explain.

[kabooooom]

Pj- what about the accussations emogirl made on chevre??

surely if you are town those accussations must be wrong, so prove them wrong.

[petroleumjelly]

Pj- what about the accussations emogirl made on chevre??

surely if you are town those accussations must be wrong, so prove them wrong.

Which accusations are you concerned with?

[Thor665]

Going back to rereading now.

Is this part still on the docket? I'm just wondering how long the PJ town case discussion will be and when the more interesting stuff will show up.

[kabooooom]

Pj- what about the accussations emogirl made on chevre??

surely if you are town those accussations must be wrong, so prove them wrong.

Which accusations are you concerned with?

its there between ABR aabd bulb lynch before page 90. Thats all I know.