Open 552 - Hope Plus One (GAME OVER) Town wins

[Belisarius]

Beli, so you have nothing to say about what I said about not claiming? Are you just going to ignore me?

Second, why does Lia of all people stand out to you?

I answered your first question in 890, and I answered Lia when she asked your second question.

[BoroPhil]

so you think the best move on day 2 after being on a dreadful day 1 lynch is to be the 4th vote on a wagon when neil hasn't posted yet?

This is the coaching post. When do town ever care where they're positioned on a wagon? Scum do, though, and they care where their partners are.

sorry, so by coaching, you think I was offering advice to my scum partner in the thread?

your argument is totally false anyway, the '4th' bit is irrelevant, the fact is there was already votes on neil, he hadn't posted yet, and dr.pants piled on regardless.

it's moot anyway now as I think pants is town

[Belisarius]

the fact is there was already votes on neil, he hadn't posted yet, and dr.pants piled on regardless

Right. And instead of attacking Pants for the scummy vote, you castigated him for making a bad move from a scum perspective which is neutral from a town one.

[uctriton00]

Beli, so you have nothing to say about what I said about not claiming? Are you just going to ignore me?

Second, why does Lia of all people stand out to you?

I answered your first question in 890, and I answered Lia when she asked your second question.

I retorted in 893.
890 = you say that we can narrow the lynch pool by sacrificing a doctor
893 = having both doctors alive is what keeps this game going, else it gives scum of 1 still a fighting chance

I want to know what your reaction to what I said in 893 is

And I need to iso lia, brb

[Tr1ckster]

Which means we'd lynch one of the pink ones, and Trickster scans another giving us a bigger edge on PoEing. However since trickster wants to do whatever the hell he wants this is going to be harder than it looks (and yes i'm still annoyed at your comment the other time that you didn't want to cooperate)

'k. Let's get this straight.

You.Cooperate.With.Me.

Not the other way around.

That said, I don't think your idea is a bad one. I do fail to see why Shadi is not on that list.

I have vonflare town.

- He seems to think the way I do (this is almost the same way Trickster seems to be town-reading me).
- Post 869 ("Moonlight tried to deflect attention away from his hammer") is a town observation to me.
- Post 792 screams townie to me. He reacted in the "us" rhetoric, which I don't see a scum saying (especially when they might be on the verge of rage quitting and concluding this game is a farce, and would likely just be sitting there crossing their fingers hoping their teammate didn't get modkilled)

Hm. Yes. I like vonflare as well.

Anyways, my analysis is as follows.

2 scum left.

11 alive.

Either Beli or Neil is a doctor and the other one is scum. This will be sorted out by tonight's night actions.

Sakura and I are conftown.

That leaves:

1 scum.

7 candidates for the last position. Those candidates are:

uctriton00, Dr Pants, Shadi1337, vonflare, Zephyrus, Lia, and BoroPhil

Uct and VF think like me. I doubt either is scum. So they're low on the suspect list.

Dr Pants, Shadi1337, Zephyrus, Lia, and BoroPhil

Lia is smart. She's got good insights, and is either talented scum or town.

Dr Pants, Shadi1337, Zephyrus, and BoroPhil

Beli says Boro and Pants are likely scum together, but if either he or Neil is scum, that leaves only one scum slot open. Which means (for now) they're both lower priority.

Shadi1337 and Zephyrus

So that's my reverse pyramid.

I say we lynch Shadi today and I investigate Zephyr tonight.

Tomorrow we work our way up the pyramid if either of these is wrong.

Tomorrow we should know whether or not Neil or Beli are scum based on the NKs. If one of them is NK'd, I will be macho and there will be one doc left.

If that doc doesn't claim, we have to assume that the remaining of the two doc claims is truly doc.

If there is a doc and he does claim, we have confirmed scum in the other one.

So then worst case scenario we have four confirmed town and two unrevealed scum on D2, but the ratio of scum to unconfirmed town is 2 to 5. And we can use PoE among other things to nab the last two scum.

Best case scenario, we lynch scum right now and I investigate scum tonight.

Anyways.

That's my thoughts on the matter.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shadi

I'll go work on a web of flips.

[uctriton00]

I'll go work on a web of flips.

If by web of flips you mean who is what by what is what, be proof positive of it before posting it (I've done one before, but that's because we had the game locked with confirmed PRs and there was no way we could lose). Otherwise you don't want to tip your hand to scum of how to escape the game, if they simply follow your map.

[uctriton00]

I also like Lia now; her 2nd post was pretty damn good
I can filter out the rest too but I think Lia is town enough

[Sakura Hana]

That said, I don't think your idea is a bad one. I do fail to see why Shadi is not on that list.

Moonlight said scum probably spread their votes D1, now that moon flipped scum this may have been a misdirection and scum was probably all on the lynch wagon, the pink names make reference to the ppl on that wagon.

[Sakura Hana]

Either Beli or Neil is a doctor and the other one is scum. This will be sorted out by tonight's night actions.

Why must only 1 of them be scum?

[Belisarius]

893 = having both doctors alive is what keeps this game going, else it gives scum of 1 still a fighting chance

I'm fine with waiting for a CC as well. I didn't argue against waiting because it is an acceptable course.

I reject the stipulation that only PRs are keeping this town going, though. So far our PRs have been more a liability than helpful

[Sakura Hana]

Either Beli or Neil is a doctor and the other one is scum. This will be sorted out by tonight's night actions.

Why must only 1 of them be scum?

Rephrasing this coz that sounds as if both are scum, but I meant "why can't both be town?"

[BoroPhil]

the fact is there was already votes on neil, he hadn't posted yet, and dr.pants piled on regardless

Right. And instead of attacking Pants for the scummy vote, you castigated him for making a bad move from a scum perspective which is neutral from a town one.

no, I attacked him for the scummy vote.

[Lia]

The problem with Neil-scum is that there aren't enough scum-slots left over, unless Boro was purposely trying to look like he was coaching in order to create an associative on a townie (Like I tried to do to Desperado in La Isla du Muerte). That's an outside possibility, since he couldn't have predicted Moonlight's self-destruct, but I don't see scum-Boro being machiavellian enough to think of it.

I've seen far, far more accusations of coaching in games than I've seen actual coaching. Looking at the conversation the "coaching" post was part of, rather than taking it in isolation, it looks more like pressuring and/or scumhunting to me.

Furthermore, if there's no counterclaim, you have to accept that Neil is telling the truth. With two claimed docs, no doc in their right mind would refrain from counterclaiming in order to generate a lynch pool of only three instead of 9.

We're not lynching a claimed doc today.

At first i thought Zephryrus was laying low because he was a doc... so now that that's no longer an issue

So you think Moonlight was heavy bussing?

[Belisarius]

no, I attacked him for the scummy vote.

You call that an attack?

Where was the vote? Where was the followup pressure? When did you try to court anyone's vote?

[Lia]

Vote: vonflare

[BoroPhil]

no, I attacked him for the scummy vote.

You call that an attack?

Where was the vote? Where was the followup pressure? When did you try to court anyone's vote?

no, you called it an attack. I quoted you. Again, you want to put words in my mouth.

my interaction with Pants was based on his 188 which annoyed me. but his responses, particularly 201 satisfied me to an extent. Scum would have probably pushed it more.

But, my focus was always Moonlight, my vote was on Moonlight, it stayed on Moonlight and Moonlight flipped scum. If you are town, you are very badly hunting down the wrong alley.

[Tr1ckster]

I'll go work on a web of flips.

If by web of flips you mean who is what by what is what, be proof positive of it before posting it (I've done one before, but that's because we had the game locked with confirmed PRs and there was no way we could lose). Otherwise you don't want to tip your hand to scum of how to escape the game, if they simply follow your map.

You're right. I'll wait on that. I'm practically guaranteed to be alive tomorrow anyways.

I also like Lia now; her 2nd post was pretty damn good
I can filter out the rest too but I think Lia is town enough

Agreed.

Either Beli or Neil is a doctor and the other one is scum. This will be sorted out by tonight's night actions.

Why must only 1 of them be scum?

Hm. Only 1 of them doesn't HAVE to be scum. That's just my assumption. And I assumed one of them is scum because it's relatively likely that one of them is and it works best with my calculations that way. But we'll find out based on the NKs tonight.

[Sakura Hana]

Either Beli or Neil is a doctor and the other one is scum. This will be sorted out by tonight's night actions.

Why must only 1 of them be scum?

Rephrasing this coz that sounds as if both are scum, but I meant "why can't both be town?"

[Belisarius]

no, you called it an attack. I quoted you. Again, you want to put words in my mouth.

I did

exactly the opposite

.

Here:

Right. And instead of attacking Pants for the scummy vote, you castigated him for making a bad move from a scum perspective which is neutral from a town one.

[BoroPhil]

jesus wept. I find it sooooooooooo hard to believe you are town.

[Sakura Hana]

Mafia 2014, where Town is scum, and Scum is town.

[Tr1ckster]

@Sakura

They could both be town or both be scum. I averaged because it made it easier. My guess is that not both of them are town, however.

[Sakura Hana]

[Zephyrus]

I say we lynch Shadi today and I investigate Zephyr tonight.

I like this, I get conftown tomorrow

VOTE: Shadi

[neil1113]

No no no no no no no no.

Dangitt!

FREAK!

Beli, you're a f#*@( doc?

That was not a part of my Gambit.

Listen to me really carefully:

WHOEVER THE OTHER DOC IS: DO NOT CLAIM / DO NOT TRY TO COUNTERCLAIM!

We need that doc to protect Beli, and Beli to protect Trick. Moon called my gambit out here which is why a couple posts later, I said I was so impressed with him. I was planning (before Sakura threw it out there) to finish the day, with the idea that both cops would switch what they did last night. And that would be that. I said I protected Trick last night on purpose, so that I knew Trick would be protect tonight by one of the docs at least.

I was simply trying to draw the night kill tonight, so that scum would have a 0% chance of killing a doc and off-setting the town.

Don't bother wasting a mislynch on me, I can be confirmed by Trick tomorrow for anyone who doesn't believe me.

What I

did not

expect, was the person we would focus on during this day phase, turning out to be a doc. That screwed my plan up, and I couldn't sit back and just pretend nothing happened, and wind up actually getting both docs outed today. That's playing against my win condition. If the second doc outs himself, we're screwed in terms of town power.

Dangitt.

UNVOTE: