NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Glork]

Re: Chamber and GC, I think you're both half-right.

We're all smart enough to know that both scums and towns can take actions that are contradictory to their alignment. I'm not saying that LML's analysis and subsequent vote of UT eliminates the possibility of him being scum, but it's something I'm having a harder time seeing in Hypothetical-LML-Scum's grand scheme of things.

"I'm having a hard time finding the motivation for scum-LML to make this case" doesn't mean "I think it is impossible for scum to take this action." I meant exactly what I said. I wanted to hear the logic behind LML's attackers as to why

they

think scum-LML would do it.


To be frank, if LML-scum were to make this kind of attack and really stick to his convictions when questioned about it, I'd expect UT to be scum. Earlier in the game, UT was suspicious of LML among others, but didn't really pursue the optino very heavily, which could be a possible distancing link. Coming out of the break, LML tried to show that he was putting forth the effort to vote for UT, and he defended his vote when people questioned his argument's validity. I could potentially see that coming from LML trying to put some distance between himself and a scumbuddy, so that if one of them eventually died, it would lower suspicion on the other one.

Unless I missed something, I don't think anybody's addressed this possiblity. People seem to think that LML as scum would make a bad analysis vote on UT, and have implied that he has some grand scheme, but nobody seems to be willing to complete the train of thought and actually take that argument to its likely logical conclusion(s). All I'm getting out of the attacks (and the responses to my criticisms) are "no, this vote lacks context and therefore it's from scum."

I think that the arguments as presented by Yos, PJ (caveat: haven't read his last couple of big posts yet), et al, are insufficient. They're attacking the bad vote, and when I ask for the reasoning behind the bad vote, I'm extremely dissatisfied with the answers.

Right now, I don't think LML is scum, and I don't think UT is scum either. And I don't think that the people going after LML are all town. There are almost certainly scum riding this train.

[Green Crayons]

chamber:

I'm assuming Glork meant to say what he said, and that he meant what he said. And, with Glork, its not a matter of interpretation, since his post is abundantly clear about what he was saying. Especially so since he challenged my explanation that LML's action is not mutually exclusive with scum play.

I don't think Glork (or anyone) is stupid, so if I have given you that impression, that's my bad.

I do think LML is scum, and that Glork is town. I therefore want Glork to vote LML, and I don't want an incorrect theory (LmL's vote is mutually exclusive with scum) to stop him from doing so. Hence my follow up and my "dumb" question. If Glork wants to clarify that he didn't mean what he actually wrote, he can do that -- you know, by answering my question.


As for your larger issue with my play, I ask questions from players so that they can clarify their positions. I do this because I don't fully understand what they are getting at, or because I want to make sure my understanding is correct before I make further town/scum conclusions. (In fact, I did exactly this with LML.). So to the extent you thought I asked you something because I thought you were saying something dumb, I can verify the I was asking you because

I really didn't understand exactly your point or what you were saying

, and I was trying to get over my own lack of understanding.

[Green Crayons]

(Didn't read Glork's post, since posting from phone.)

[Yosarian2]

To be frank, if LML-scum were to make this kind of attack and really stick to his convictions when questioned about it, I'd expect UT to be scum. Earlier in the game, UT was suspicious of LML among others, but didn't really pursue the optino very heavily, which could be a possible distancing link. Coming out of the break, LML tried to show that he was putting forth the effort to vote for UT, and he defended his vote when people questioned his argument's validity. I could potentially see that coming from LML trying to put some distance between himself and a scumbuddy, so that if one of them eventually died, it would lower suspicion on the other one.

My impression of LML's posting isn't that he "really stuck to his convictions". After all, he hasn't really done any follow up, or made any additional points against UT, or really tried to convince anyone else to vote him. It looks more to me like he made a vote based bad reasoning to create the illusion of scumhunting, and then spent a lot of time defending his actions after he was attacked for them.

Compare and contrast his UT vote with his PJ case. I think LML is actually trying to lynch PJ. Note that PJ actually has a bandwagon against him, and is also probably a more significant threat to LML at the moment. I don't think LML was actually trying to lynch UT; I don't think he really cared one way or the other, he just wanted to look like he was doing something. The style of attack is quite different.

(It's also possible his UT vote was distancing, sure; I don't disagree with that. I don't think LML flipping scum here would tell us much about UT's alignment one way or the other.)

[MafiaSSK]

2.)

MafiaSSK, where are you?
]

Hi. I'm here. Interest me.

[DrippingGoofball]

We can skip all these arguments and vote Porochaz!

[Save The Dragons]

Dear MafiaSSK,

Several pages ago and prior to the Great Tiger Attack, you voted CES because you claimed that he was scumbuddies with CTD. I don't think I can find a single person that truly agrees with this sentiment. While I do find his tunnel vision noteworthy, it hardly seems damning.

In the several pages that followed, am I to understand that above anything else that has happened, this is still the number 1 most interesting event and most likely tell of scumminess?

If you still think CES is scum, what else you got, and if not, what now?

Also, what is your opinion on Seol/Bookitty?

Sincerely,
STD

[Sotty7]

Zorblag keeping pressure on Porochaz after he started to post and give opinions on the game seems pretty harsh. The reason he got Zor's vote was his lack of content now he provides such content you're going to call his motivation into question? Damned if you do damned if you don't. If you don't like the content at least pull something out of it to argue, the whole you dismissing it was pretty funky and I even hate pbpa's.

That doesn't clear LML, but it does make me suspicious of PJ, given his minimal approach to contributing to the game so far.

Is LML a town read for you at this point? I'm getting the real feel of having your cake and eating it too so I would like you to clarify your opinion on him.

[chamber]

chamber, what is your issue with Bookitty? I feel like she's been pretty on the money with her posts about PJ (especially Post 495 is basically exactly why I'm voting PJ).

Confirmation bias. I found her posts weird prior to realizing she replaced seol, and after learning that was just like, eh weird probably means scum then.

[chamber]

I think vote count analyses are mostly useful later in the game. However, they are great tools for town because they are based on facts, not theory. While you and I might look at the same VCA and derive different conclusions, we're going to have the same facts. So while I don't agree with LML's vote on Untrod Tripod (try saying that fast, yikes) I don't think LML is scummy for having provided information, arriving at some conclusions and placing a vote based on those conclusions.

@PetroleumJelly: In a game this size with this many players, wouldn't it make more sense NOT to put in the effort to do that analysis if LML was scum? I think it would be pretty easy to blend in with the pack and not make too many waves. VCA data is verifiable by town and can be used throughout the game to catch scum, though I think it's really not that useful until later. Why would scum make an effort to tell the truth to town when they could generally just coast? This line of argument seems fabricated and could be used against anyone, town or scum, who put in effort to provide data. To paraphrase chamber's tagline, it's as if you're saying "content is scummy."

She repeats herself a little too much, which I always find suggests nervousness (but town can be intimidated too), but also she's talking about the objective facts in VCA like they matter somehow? Or that it matters that LML was the one to gather the data at least? But the entire game is just disagreeing interpretations about facts. PJ doesn't think 'content is scummy', he thinks this specific implementation of the content is scummy. Its just -odd-.

[Bookitty]

Is LML a town read for you at this point? I'm getting the real feel of having your cake and eating it too so I would like you to clarify your opinion on him.

LML is a null-leaning-scum read for me. The scum part is:

He pulls his vote off STD and then votes UT for the EXACT SAME thing. His VCA actually shows that. I realize he's only got one vote, but why switch it at the point he does and then blame it on his VCA? That's not reading honest to me. STD ducked my question on that, but I would be interested to know how STD sees that move. To me, it was the scummiest thing LML did all game and it made me look hard at STD as a result.

The town part is:

I've read the game several times over the last few days. I still don't have it down, but I guess that's normal for a large game. But I notice that LML is the target of choice for a lot of people with not a lot of reasoning. I hadn't thought about it the way Glork did, but the truth is that Glork is a better scumhunter than I am. (I'm sure those who have played with me before will back me up on this.) I just gave my reason for thinking he might be scum; so far as I recall, I'm the only one who noted that exact thing. (I could be wrong on that, but I don't remember reading anyone on LML's wagon and saying, AHA, you think what *I* think.) The reasons given aren't as good as that one in my eyes, which makes me think that some of the people on LML's wagon are scum without real motivation except finding a convenient wagon. Which, in turn, makes me think that LML might be town after all.

[Yosarian2]

2.)

MafiaSSK, where are you?
]

Hi. I'm here. Interest me.

...

I don't know if you noticed, but this town is clearly not going to tolerate lurkers. We already made that point once, with Nat. Contribute something.

[Save The Dragons]

@bookitty

I'll admit in 498 I kind of wander around with the ball a bit and kind of leave the stadium behind. LML's justification for switching seems to be

1) UT's bandwagony
2) UT jumped on nat.

I don't really think the first part is a scum tell. I've been pretty friendly with my vote myself. Therefore I find your second question to me a bit silly.

I suspect he is willing to vote for someone bandwagony, and picked up on the VI thing. Voting me probably didn't have a lot of traction so I'm guessing that may have something to do as well.

The part that you seem to ignore is the fact that he didn't just post that excel sheet, said "look at dem facts" and switched his vote. From his post voting for UT has something to do with UT's voting for Nat.

[Glork]

As an aside, I'm willing to give SSK the Natirasha treatment for his most recent post. There's a lot going on, and implying disinterest is a really great way to skate by as scum.

[petroleumjelly]

BooKitty:

1.)

Content is not scummy.

Bad

content is scummy. The fact that LoudmouthLee was relying on "facts" (i.e., "X voted for A, then B, then C") is irrelevant -- what is relevant is the conclusions he was drawing from those facts. His conclusions did not take into account actual game circumstances beyond "this vote was on somebody who has been wagoned."

2.)

I had "posted eight times" because I post about once a night (or sometimes the following morning). I cannot afford to contribute more time than I already do.

3.)

I asked Tigris questions to get a feel for her play. I even explained this as I was asking Tigris my questions.

Her answers did not arouse my suspicion. I also skimmed the posts of her last game (Newbie #1441, which I referenced while asking my questions) where I had personally noted that one of my annoyances with Tigris (her use of nervous-sounding filler words such as "anywho") is something she does as Town. I think had she continued posting at a similar rate and with a similar amount of openness I would have ultimately been able to get a good read on her alignment.

4.)

What do you think your main contributions have been so far?

What do you feel you've learned from your questioning? Do you still think MafiaSSK is scum? Is it likely he is scum with LML?

Reading the game for the second and third time, I'm seeing a lot of heat and smoke from your posts, but I just don't see a lot of light.

I cannot think of a non-condescending way to decline to answer your bolded question, so I am simply going to decline to answer it.

My lines of questioning:

->

a.)

My Tigris questions have led me to think I could eventually get a good read on Tigris had she not replaced out (see above).
->

b.)

My question to MrBuddyLee on Sotty7 was to see if I could get reasoning from MrBuddyLee (I remember him being tight-lipped in the past which makes him difficult for me to read) on a player I would normally have trouble getting a read on.
->

c.)

My questions to VitaminR (the "weak" v "strong" push) was to see if I could get him to agree with my stance through a Socratic line of questions. Given that I feel the direction I was going was pretty obvious, his refusal to answer my questions (or least to admit "I see where you are going with this, but I disagree") strikes me as being purposefully slippery. His point ("MafiaSSK was outclassed,

therefore

I suspect the attackers going after an 'easy target' and do not suspect MafiaSSK") is simple but flawed given the realities of this invitational game.
->

d.)

My questions to Yosarian2 and chamber concerning LoudmouthLee (and VitaminR) were attempts to see what other players whose posts I have liked so far (and

no

, I do not have Townreads on either chamber or Yosarian2) think about players I think are scummy. Their answers have not helped me get a more nuanced read on LoudmouthLee (or VitaminR). That said, I

am

interested in chamber's theory that LoudmouthLee may have

purposefully

made a bad Vote Count Analysis (potentially for reactions?).

~

I still believe MafiaSSK has a good chance of being scum. I can see him being scum with LoudmouthLee, but I really have no reason to suspect the pairing in particular. They are independently scummy.

Update: Actually, looking over their posts again, the pairing actually looks quite plausible. While LoudmouthLee initially FoS'd MafiaSSK, he has declined to push MafiaSSK in the slightest. Since the initial FoS, he has only talked about MafiaSSK in the context of (i) Tigris' vote on MafiaSSK and (ii) the fact that MafiaSSK was a bandwagoned player. And the only mention MafiaSSK has made of LoudmouthLee was to question why Save the Dragons voted for LoudmouthLee.

~

Please explain what you mean when you say you are seeing a "lot of heat and smoke" from my posts.

[CrashTextDummie]

Was prodded, but I remain V/LA until late tonight. I have time to fully catch up tomorrow.

[Patrick]

Votecount

LoudmouthLee (3) -- Green Crayons, Yosarian2, petroleumjelly
Kublai Khan (1) -- MrBuddyLee
MafiaSSK (2) -- CrashTextDummie, undo
Bookitty (4) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- MafiaSSK
petroleumjelly (5) -- Albert B. Rampage, Save the Dragons, VitaminR, LoudmouthLee, Bookitty
Porochaz (2) -- DrippingGoofball, Zorblag
Yosarian2 (1) -- Glork

Not voting: Kublai Khan, Porochaz, Untrod Tripod
22 alive, 12 to lynch.

[undo]

No time for a long post, so I’ll just leave some quick notes for now. Tomorrow I’ll be able to do a thorough read of the last pages and post a more complete analysis.

@Yosarian

I'm equally confused by people like Glork for apparently expecting me to stick with a page 5 suspicion for the rest of the game, and claims to find it opportunistic that I switched to a better suspect when I had more information. Just weird play, I don't get it.

That last post of pj really sets alarm bells ringing for me, particularly the opportunistic jump on LML

Are you equally confused by VitaminR for apparently expecting PJ to stick with a page 3 suspicion for the rest of the game, and claiming to find it opportunistic that he switched to a better suspect when he had more information? Is VitaminR playing weird?

@LML

He is pushing names into an Excel document and focusing on the outliers in one direction (lots of vote changing) but not the other direction (lack of vote changing).

If you would have read my posts closely (which I assume you haven't, because this is sloppy mistake #2 from you), you would have read this:

d) Why not let everyone else do that? You guys can go after the lurker tells (I don't believe in them) and I look to actively scum hunt.

That was the reasoning as to why I don't like lurker tells.

LML, you know good and well that lurkers ≠ people who don’t change their votes a lot (vide: me, for example). Since I know you’re aware of this, I can only assume you’re purposedly ignoring this fundamental difference just to make PJ look bad, which doesn’t seem very honest (and looks OMGUS).

---

Meanwhile, MafiaSSK is looking worse and worse by the clock. Some pages ago he was all posting long texts defending eccentric theories more backed by “belief” than reason. Now he’s lurking and asks us to entertain him.

Also, hey Bookitty! Good to see you here. I can’t help but notice your entrance in the game was rather inconspicuous, though, without the customary après-reread analysis wallpost. I’d really like to hear your reads on people.

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

MafiaSSK, why do you believe the scum in this game do not have daytalk?

2.)

MafiaSSK, what do you think of LoudmouthLee?

3.)

LoudmouthLee, what do you think of MafiaSSK?

4.)

LoudmouthLee, is there scum on my wagon?

5.)

LoudmouthLee, for the record, I actually spent a fair deal of time just now skimming over some of your latest games (admittedly several years old). I have indeed noted a fairly consistent pattern of you deciding that "X scum are on Y wagon" without really bothering to look at what other players are doing with their votes. While I don't agree with the concept, I will no longer consider it a point against you.

So now the question focuses on whether you are actually doing this:

It is of my opinion that content matters much less than analyzing voting patterns.

When the voting patterns lead you to choices, that's when you compare content.

I have not seen you put your own Vote Count Analysis into context (or "comparing the content"). I realize you are not currently voting for Untrod Tripod, but could you explain whether (and if so, how) you actually compared Untrod Tripod's (or Save the Dragons') voting patterns to their content?

6.)

LoudmouthLee, why do you believe that Save the Dragons' meta does not involve hopping on bandwagons? Save the Dragons essentially actually asked you this same question in Post 285.

7.)

LoudmouthLee, unfortunately I did not happen to notice any situations where you have similarly argued against a Town voting to get a player to

act

instead of voting to get a player

lynched

(e.g., the Natirasha situation). Can you link me to a game where that has happened before? If you don't believe (or can't remember) if it has come up in a game before, please say so.

[Sotty7]

He pulls his vote off STD and then votes UT for the EXACT SAME thing. His VCA actually shows that. I realize he's only got one vote, but why switch it at the point he does and then blame it on his VCA?

Isn't this pretty much the exact reason that PJ is voting LML? The VCA's are at least an important pillar of his case of right now combined with the lack of context supplied with the VCA. Your entrance into the game seems to try to defend LML's VCA by saying scum wouldn't work to provide such content and as such PJ's vote is overly opportunistic because of it. In this quote though you basically agree with PJ but then defer to Glork's "superior" scum hunting abilities by saying this wagon on LML is too easy. I just don't see how you can vote PJ if this is your true opinion on LML with your initial read though.

If you truly believe that someone on LML is opportunistic scum why am I seeing no content on Green Crayons or Yos? It's just a laser beam focus on PJ despite having read the game several times according to you. Doesn't add up.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Bookitty's stances on LoudmouthLee feel really arbitrary, especially in the context of some of the other things she said. That's a slot that could use some lynching.

[Untrod Tripod]

vote Bookitty

[Bookitty]

BooKitty:Please explain what you mean when you say you are seeing a "lot of heat and smoke" from my posts.

Your explanations actually make a lot of sense to me. However, the Tigris explanation and your results are nowhere in the thread that I saw. If it's valuable information, shouldn't you share your findings with town? Do you intend to make a similar investigation of the person who replaced into her slot?

The "Socratic dialogue" with VitaminR reads completely like smoke and mirrors. Reread it for yourself and I think you'll see exactly why.

I ask a lot of questions as part of my playstyle too. And no, you don't need to worry about being condescending, I don't have a huge ego about my scumhunting prowess. I replaced into a game you modded back in the Dark Ages, and my scumhunting abilities haven't changed much since then. But when I do try to make an assessment of someone's alignment (as you say you are doing) I share the results of my findings with town. That way there's this transparency that makes it easier for other people to understand my motivations.

I don't like you saying that you were giving LML a wide berth and then suddenly springing your assessment on everyone.

Do you feel that the scumtell I mentioned before is the one you were picking up on?

It wasn't really clear to me from the wording of your post.

I REALLY want an answer to the bolded part, please.

Also, hey Bookitty! Good to see you here. I can’t help but notice your entrance in the game was rather inconspicuous, though, without the customary après-reread analysis wallpost. I’d really like to hear your reads on people.

Hi! Yeah, I replaced in late on a Friday night and I WILL do it but I've been really busy and I've been posting in between other things that have to get done. I have reread the thread on the go on my tablet; one of those posts takes a long time actually sitting in front of the computer with multiple windows open, especially in a game this size with so many people to consider in ISO and drill-down and all that stuff.

If you truly believe that someone on LML is opportunistic scum why am I seeing no content on Green Crayons or Yos? It's just a laser beam focus on PJ despite having read the game several times according to you. Doesn't add up.

I just got here. Do you truly expect someone who replaced in late on Friday night to have had time to do what you suggest?

[Glork]

As much as it pains me to say, I'm pretty fine with a Bookitty lynch.

[DrippingGoofball]

CES is town.

I'm sure the towntell is involuntary, LOL. He slipped up.