NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Sotty7]

It's mafiaSSK. I could have told you he wasn't going to finish this game before it started. I think calling his replacement anything but null is simply incorrect.

Pretty much this.

Bookitty-Scum wouldn't have referred to herself as the best lynch. The writing was on the wall well before that post, certainly that she was one of two very likely lynch candidates. I know you're aware of this, so don't even try to pull that over my eyes. FoS: CES

Is this BooKitty meta you have or just your assertion?

[Porochaz]

Page 16

At the risk of not writing anything down the whole page, yos has given me major town vibes this section. (especially this page) he has posted things as I've thought them which makes it annoying for me on my reread. Post 399 by LML makes me no happier with him. The only other thing of note was Save the Dragons point on Zor replacing in. He would have read the thread at the very least on a neutral ground so to put too much focus on his rereads, is meh.

As an aside, cause I've just thought of it now. (ie. its not in my notes) there was no posting from SSK or undo in this section. As such a lot of my notes are based on LML (as I believe others are as well). I worry about it, even though undo announce his v/la, because Im pretty certain my vote will go on LML at this point (spoilers). However, I should be aware that just cause I have no notes on those two, doesn't mean there shouldn't be notes on those 2 especially since I find them suspicious. (and CTD)

UT as well, but then hes playing similarly to his meta in the game I just played with him and he hasn't done anything that has me worried...

Page 17, its worth noting that in regards to me at least the spreadsheet has an error. Im not sure about anyone else. As others have said, this is quite an obvious replacement to any scumhunting. It seems very easy, and I believe it's what LML is doing, to use it to have an easy well of information to make baseless cases and use it to go "look the spreadsheet tells me so". At this point in the game, you could probably twist anything out of that spreadsheet and call it a reason for voting.

Sotty is a pain for me. No offence. I have a gut scum read on you, a lot of your early posts striked me as off, and it was a post on page 17, (I didnt write down many post numbers in this section) that made me go "there are a lot of good points in here". My gut is usually wrong, I've learned not to listen to it in recent games. But I am struggling to get beyond the initial "here's a scum post" mindset. 411/412 were the posts, it's very clear your thought processes are in the scumhunting mindset.

PJ made post 417, and looking back on it now, hes not coming to the conclusion I came to but we are on the same lines, but Im noticing a hypocrisy with LML that he has voted both Tigris and StD (and FoS'ed SSK) with his stance on the Nat policy wagon. I don't really get his impetus for those votes. Especially because his latter play has been more about this analysis than actually scumhunting. 371 where he states vote reads are more important than tell reads day 1 doesn't match his earlier play.

I think that came out garbled...

Page 18,
GC's point on Zorblags question being a loaded one is a good point. I'm not happy with page 19's response either. He knows he has been called out on what was a blatantly scummy question and goes more on the attack, 460 is a particularly bad post. There are better ways of seeing if someone is paying attention. What is the town motivation in asking that question the way he did?

428, Glorks post, makes me sad as well. Because I disagree with a lot of it. I don't know how he got almost a 180 on my reads at this present moment... whereas yos's 434 sums up my feelings perfectly in regards to LML

My point in 442 against yos, whilst I think fair, is null and void at this point, considering yos has been playing exactly how I expect him to for the past few pages. I do still think the fact that he made a bigger deal of it than necessary but had I read the whole thread I wouldnt have made the point, I guess it highlights a problem with reading the way I am.

Page 19, LML's point 1 is simply wrong. Others have said it. However he

must

know its wrong, a large amount of votes wouldn't be lynching votes, context in regards to votes is everything and especially this early on, negating that is so bad. However, I've spent so much time on this already.

Hey, it's Booky. Missed you. <3

Also highlights I've forgotten seol was in this game.

Unfortunately Booky, seems to have missed the case on LML. It's not the VCA thats particularly scummy, its the of combining that with anything else and the conclusions he comes to. (I think UT said similar.

Page 20, Im not sure if its because Im not as engaged as usual but there isn't much here. I can't pin down any thoughts on PJ, the way he structures his posts should be ideal for me, but I struggle to make sense of them at times, but as such 485 is pushing me towards town with him. Im starting to see the thoughts behind what he is writing down, which makes me happy.

[Zorblag]

Just a quick post to handle a prod, but I'll get something to you this afternoon. Or I'll have decided that I was wrong about the game being reasonable for me to play (it's just much less fun filtering playstyles from content to figure out who's scum than I remember, and more of a chore. I think that my overall priorities for time have changed more than I realized; I should possibly open up the spot for someone who would give you more and get more out of it.) I'll think about it over my 5 hour long class this morning and be back one way or another this afternoon.

-Ryan

[Glork]

It's mafiaSSK. I could have told you he wasn't going to finish this game before it started. I think calling his replacement anything but null is simply incorrect.

Pretty much this.

Bookitty-Scum wouldn't have referred to herself as the best lynch. The writing was on the wall well before that post, certainly that she was one of two very likely lynch candidates. I know you're aware of this, so don't even try to pull that over my eyes. FoS: CES

Is this BooKitty meta you have or just your assertion?

I feel like I've already explained this, but for repetition's sake, it's a little bit of both.

Part of it is a Bookitty personality thing. (I won't say meta because it's been years since I've played with her.)

Part of it is strategy. There is an increased likelihood that caught scum D1 are more likely to try to take someone down with them, rather than rolling over and just going "yeah lynch me" with no attempt to get any value for their team. Maybe if the D1 caught scum was inexperienced or downright

bad

, but I'd wager that a majority of players reading this post are nodding their heads in tacit agreement. D1, scum probably aren't going to just go quietly into the noose. Do you disagree, Sotty?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

She's clearly not given up if she's scum. She's not going quietly into the noose; she's very clearly trying something.

[Bookitty]

About VitaminR's question about CES's question; I'm not sure what I'm supposed to respond to in this. Obviously the absolute best lynch for today is a scum lynch. If a wagon built on someone I have reasonable suspicions regarding that wasn't PJ, I'd move to it because that would be a better lynch than a confirmed townie. (I'm confirmed to myself, I'm not saying you should consider me that way.) I'd obviously support a PJ lynch because that's my most confident suspicion. By mathcam's figuring, I'd put it at 40%.

I feel like there has been more real discussion of reads since I asked to be lynched. I didn't really expect that. My primary reasoning for saying, yes, lynch me, was that things were dragging and we needed a lynch to actually give people solid information. A lot of the commentary that stood out to me amounted to people saying "I don't feel _______ is sincere." Some of that was directed my way, though not all by a long shot. One sure way to prove sincerity is to flip town. Everything the townie said can be read with the knowledge of their alignment.

If we're not going to lynch scum, lynching a VT is the next best thing in my opinion. Not just any VT, but someone who has given reads and who has put information out there for the town. The negative side to that is something mathcam pointed out, which I hadn't thought about, but which I don't think overrules my primary point. I do tend to be active and to post a lot and to put a lot of information out there for town to evaluate; however, I'm not the greatest scumhunter, and my contributions tend to be most useful in the later game where logic plays a role. (People who have played with me can verify this, I suspect.)

A scum lynch is best (Captain Obvious is obvious). It would give us links to other scum and would provide lots of information to use going forward. A town lynch that doesn't out a powerrole and that offers at least some information to town is second best. Worst is outting a powerrole or just having the game stagnate because people can't come to any conclusion; the last part is primarily why I wanted to push my lynch, get town moving again and keep this game active.

I still think my logic holds, even with the increased activity now.

[Albert B. Rampage]

do not lynch bookitty

[Bookitty]

Also, not related to the previous; I've played with DrippingGoofball quite a bit in the old days and I know she's an accurate scumhunter. In one game I played with her and Adel she spotted the scum pretty much 1-2-3. She's worth listening to when she's town, and I think she is here.

[Green Crayons]

do not lynch bookitty

Still agree.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Also, not related to the previous; I've played with DrippingGoofball quite a bit in the old days and I know she's an accurate scumhunter. In one game I played with her and Adel she spotted the scum pretty much 1-2-3. She's worth listening to when she's town, and I think she is here.

*cough cough*

[Bookitty]

I <3 you, ABR I have to call them like I see them, though. I think the game was Picking Simplicity, if that helps anyone.

[Glork]

She's clearly not given up if she's scum. She's not going quietly into the noose; she's very clearly trying something.

Buuuuuuut she's not. And beyond the WIFOM of "giving up" to be lynched, there's not really a reason to conclude that this is scum behavior.

[VitaminR]

Vote: LML[\b]

[Yosarian2]

((As a sidenote, mafia is a hard game and I don't think I would ever assign a >50% chance of being scum to anyone, like, ever. Beyond cop investigations or role information or whatnot.))

This is a side note, but it's not really that hard to get to 50%. If 25% of the people in a game are scum, and then person X does something that you think scum are about twice as likely to do as town (say, a scum might do it 40% of his games while a town might do it 20% of his games), then that gives you a Bayesian possibility of about 50% that that person who did the scum tell is actually scum. (If 20% of the people in the game are scum, as may be more likely here, then need a slightly stronger tell to get up to 50%, but the idea is the same).

The difficulty is then translating that into a correct lynch in a case where a quarter of the people in the game are actively trying to sabotage the town's chances.

[Yosarian2]

do not lynch bookitty

This is still correct.

[Sotty7]

I feel like I've already explained this, but for repetition's sake, it's a little bit of both.

Part of it is a Bookitty personality thing. (I won't say meta because it's been years since I've played with her.)

Part of it is strategy. There is an increased likelihood that caught scum D1 are more likely to try to take someone down with them, rather than rolling over and just going "yeah lynch me" with no attempt to get any value for their team. Maybe if the D1 caught scum was inexperienced or downright bad, but I'd wager that a majority of players reading this post are nodding their heads in tacit agreement. D1, scum probably aren't going to just go quietly into the noose. Do you disagree, Sotty?

Yeah I do cause it really depends and to defend someone from a day one lynched based on this is pretty crappy. The flip side of this strat is that BooKitty hasn't played for a long time and ScumBookitty could feel overwhelmed and play the lynch me card. It's not at all unreasonable so I am trying to figure out why, out of everything else she has posted you have latched on to this point to beat back her wagon because it is probably the weakest point out of all.

Post 513 has you getting ready to jump on the Bookitty wagon but you end up putting a vote on PJ instead. What made you vote there and give BooKitty the pass at that point even before the claim?

Also, not related to the previous; I've played with DrippingGoofball quite a bit in the old days and I know she's an accurate scumhunter. In one game I played with her and Adel she spotted the scum pretty much 1-2-3. She's worth listening to when she's town, and I think she is here.

Does that mean you think UT is scum as well?

[CrashTextDummie]

Catching up.

Post 370 pushes Shanba over the edge and into my so far meager town pile along with StD.

You keep calling Nat the VI wagon this game, but he wasn't. Nat was never going to get lynched for those votes, they were just forcing him to participate or replace out. The VI wagon this game has been an is on MafiaSSK.

Dislike chamber's characterization of MafiaSSK as a "VI wagon". Not that I agree with LML's characterization of Natirasha as a VI wagon either, but I think it's mostly a misapplication of the term in the case of the latter.

I donno, maybe it's just because I've played with her so many times, but this feels like town-DGB play, specifically.

Also, frankly, declaring this many people town as scum is likely to screw you over in the long run. It's not a good scum strategy to have as many town reads as she does, because you'll probably have to go back on some of them eventually in order to get enough lynches to win.

When has DGB ever been shy to change her reads on a whim? As scum in particular, she's prone to make 180s on her town reads, particularly when they start voting her.

It may not be good scum strategy to declare too many people town, but DGB has never conformed to to what is generally accepted as "good strategy" so your assessment of her play feels majorly off.

Post 411: Sotty joins the town pile. Not for this post specifically, it's just the latest of her post-crash posts that reminds me of a recent town game we shared.

The combination of RL excuses and the posting style prior to said excuses smell of scum avoiding the game.

I don't know if I'm a softy, but this (and Zorblag joining the chorus) strikes me as callous and opportunistic. I don't think Porochaz is the only player (or even the worst) with a lacking level of engagement, but the dude announced the death of a relative. A reasonable course of action would be to give him some time to ascertain whether his "avoiding" of the game is actually scum motivated or the result of his RL tragedy (which would be more than understandable). The fact that he even remained in the game is mildly town telling to me given his apparent lack of enthusiasm in playing a scum role in the last Oldy game.

Basically, I want to lynch one of the following people:
Seol (pending further contributions, possibly?)
VitR
Yos2
petroleumjelly
Maybe CES (pending ~reasons~)

That's a remarkably ambitious suspect list, featuring a rogue's gallery of some of the most proficient scum players in mafiascum history (PJ would probably disagree with me declaring him as such, but I digress). I personally don't have a solid read on any of these players and I have a hard time deciding whether this is a display of amazing scumhunting chutzpah or scum bravado. I know Glork is capable of the latter. Some posts later (#436, #437 in particular) look town enough that I accept the former as the stronger possibility though.

ABR is also playing to his town meta, from what I remember his town and scum game are completely different.

I've playing with town ABR recently and his play here is

nothing

like his play was there. My frame of reference is Red Wine mafia, where he was lynched as town on D1, gave reasons for his reads, made extensive arguments (by comparison), expressed doubt, showed engagement with people that went beyond trying to shepherd them to and from wagons, etc. Here, he has been directing traffic more than he has been scumhunting. 15ish pages of "lynch LML" followed by 15 pages of "don't lynch LML, lynch PJ".

People need to start explaining based on what meta they are giving ABR a pass on, since if your stance is "his town game and his scum game are totally different" then surely he must be scum here.

I have 10 more pages to read, I may manage that tonight.

[Bookitty]

@Sotty:

Are you even reading my posts? Please look at Post 643.

[Yosarian2]

It may not be good scum strategy to declare too many people town, but DGB has never conformed to to what is generally accepted as "good strategy" so your assessment of her play feels majorly off.

This is town DGB play. I have a pretty high degree of confidence in that.

Do you disagree, or are you just nitpicking?

[Porochaz]

To me at least ABR is way more aggressive as scum. As town, he usually stays with the short one liners, not really getting overly involved but still at least contributing a little. The last game I see we played together: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
where he is playing similarly.

[CrashTextDummie]

It may not be good scum strategy to declare too many people town, but DGB has never conformed to to what is generally accepted as "good strategy" so your assessment of her play feels majorly off.

This is town DGB play. I have a pretty high degree of confidence in that.

Do you disagree, or are you just nitpicking?

Yeah, I disagree. Though I would never profess a high degree of confidence in reading her.

Poro, I just took the most cursory of glances at that ISO, and I don't think it looks anything like his play here either. I'd also say he's plenty aggressive here, both in the certainty of reads he portrays and in the way he's trying to steer people to and from wagons.

[CrashTextDummie]

[*]Point #1: Natirasha

I am going to underline this, because you all (and yes, YOU ALL) should be considerably better than this. Voting is for lynching, not getting people to contribute. When people place votes on somebody to push pressure on them, the mentality changes. People no longer are looking for analysis. They're looking for defense. You've ALL been in this situation before. Think about it. When you're bandwagoning someone, they want defense of your actions. Then, they want to know why you aren't posting analysis. That all of your posts seem "defensive". It's circular. And it's a dangerous game that scum have been perpetuating for as long as I remember playing.

The defense of the Natirasha wagon has nothing to do with the fact that it had opportunity, and people JUMPED on it. Everyone who had read the thread knew what was going on. The votes were cast to generate suspicion on someone who had enough negative feelings from the town to move a wagon. I cannot be the ONLY person who sees this.

What radically old school thinking. I'm not sure I agree but I can follow the thought process and it looks pretty town to me.

It's been a busy week, but the good news is that my last tenure committee meeting of the academic year went well (all excellent evaluations and no issues of note.) I should have a bit more time to look at the game now. The beers are out and it's time to get back in the game!

The cheerfulness feels faintly fake. The rest of the quoted post is problematic for me as well. My general impression is that Zorblag was significantly more interested in scumhunting before he got a role in the game than after, and that doesn't bode well for his alignment.

pretty sure troll is town. So that's good.

Do tell why. You're still way too "internal" for my liking.

I have to stop here, will continue tomorrow.

[Kublai Khan]

Ugh. So much text. Im out od practice.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote CES

Let's lynch this guy instead.

[Albert B. Rampage]

VitR could very well be scum, I don't see why he would vote LML as town.