NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[inHimshallibe]

Aight I'm here. Sup homies.

[DrippingGoofball]

Good catch of a fake crumb, actually.

For the non-claim... I had to learn

La cigale et la fourmi

by heart, those English kid things are foreign to me.

[inHimshallibe]

Good catch of a fake crumb, actually.

For the non-claim... I had to learn

La cigale et la fourmi

by heart, those English kid things are foreign to me.

Please tell me what's going on.

[Yosarian2]

How did you get roleblocker from hickory dickory dock?

What's that? Where did he say that?

Wasn't there something about a mouse and a clock? I thought messing with the clock movement.

He was referencing the nursery rhyme

"Hickory, dickory, dock,
The mouse ran up the clock.
The clock struck one,
The mouse ran down,
Hickory, dickory, dock."

I thought it was a pretty obvious attempt to imply he was the doc, while not actually claiming doc. It was also an obvious scum desperation tactic; a real doctor would either claim or not, but wouldn't play games like that.

[DrippingGoofball]

I get that now.

[inHimshallibe]

Highly unlikely to read D1 right now.

D2 reads = DGB town with me not trusting UT or PJ based on attack of DGB.

[Yosarian2]

petroleumjelly, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, Kublai Khan, Porochaz

Two of these players bus'ed LML yesterday, and are currently going after me, the easy lynch-du-jour.

This obsession with trying to figure out "who bussed LML" seems totally backwards. It's possible a scum or two bussed him, or it's possible none did. Either way, since town had a cop in this game, we're probably looking at 4-5 scum in a 22 player game, and odds are there were more scum off the LML wagon then on it.

Being on the LML wagon doesn't clear anyone, but I'm not reading anything into LML comment about being "bussed" either. That could just as easily be a scum going down in flames trying to mislead the town as anything else.

[DrippingGoofball]

I am reading into it. You bet I am. I am combining what must be the fact of about two scums on LML's wagon at the time he complained about it, and the players going for my lynch today.

[Glork]

1.)

Glork, answer my questions. Ignoring them does not make them go away.

2.)

Glork, acting like your late and "reluctant" vote on LoudmouthLee is a point in your favor is doing you no favors. At that point in the game, if you are scum, you could not suddenly "see the light" and attack LoudmouthLee for credit. So your only choice if you wanted

any

Towncredit was to vote LoudmouthLee but to act unhappy about it.

Your other options as scum (which would not gain you

any

Towncredit) would be to be simply shoot for a No Lynch, either by being conveniently absent

or

by pushing a wagon doomed to failure (i.e., Untrod Tripod and Kublai Khan and possibly even Bookitty if we got too close to the deadline).

The fact that you are trying to shine the spotlight away from players who were sticking their heads in the sand is legitimately baffling. That is a

perfectly

good place to look, and somewhere I have looked at myself.

Any scum can bus any partner. Any scum can defend any partner. It's really that simple. There are advantages and disadvantages to both.

1) DGB's nonsensical verbiage isn't a scumtell either. Move along.

2)

I realize that's self-meta and probably won't be believed, but I need to say it.

That's really all I have to say about that. I couldn't be fucked to care if you personally think it's a point in my favor.

[Glork]

Either way, since town had a cop in this game, we're probably looking at 4-5 scum in a 22 player game, and odds are there were more scum off the LML wagon then on it.

Being on the LML wagon doesn't clear anyone, but I'm not reading anything into LML comment about being "bussed" either. That could just as easily be a scum going down in flames trying to mislead the town as anything else.

Point of clarification: Vanilla Cop determines whether its target had an ability or not. It does not determine alignment. There's no indication at this point as to whether or not there is a regular cop in this game.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB's nonsensical verbiage

LOL Have some respect for your elders, young man!

[mathcam]

Okay, I've reread pages 1-20 (and 35-), and while I'm sure there's lots of things happening between 20 and 35, I'm exhausted and have ample thoughts for a post:

1) I agree there's very little to be read into the "bussing slip," intentional or not.
2) PJ, I apologize -- I missed your questions before. Hopefully this post will address the first one. The second seems...patronizing? And possibly now irrelevant. As to the "didn't really see it" line, I meant exactly that -- other people seemed to find him extraordinarily scummy, and it appears they were right. I saw nothing definitively scummy from him, but instead a rather neutral level of scumminess that still rose to the top (the top 5) by virtue of a lot of other people appearing townish.

In any case, I've updated my list significantly given new information. Here's a rough organization of my reads. I'm not sure I can justify every single one of them.

Probably pro-town: Chamber, Sotty, StD, inhim, PJ, Yos
Slight pro-town read: MBL, KK, GC, VitR, Glork
Not sure: CTD, DGB
Slight scum: UT, undo, CES, BooKitty
Leaning scum: ABR, porochaz

BooKitty was "leaning scum" (again, still mostly suspicion inherited from Seol) until Day 2, where I agree that her revelation about the role-blocking crumb. I agree with PJ that this explanation has some holes in it, though it's an awfully convoluted ploy for a scum to hope to play for some advantage. So slight town bump there.

I'm not sure what to make of DGB -- I think I might actually feel completely the opposite of Glork, that with the seeming inevitability of LML's lynch, DGB might have thought to distance herself from a LML scumflip by doing something so blatantly pro-LML to cause Glork's reaction. Of course, this argument is dripping with WIFOM, but to me it's enough to mitigate any pro-town boost I initially gave her from being so blatantly pro-LML right before the lynch in the first place. I had her as pretty pro-town yesterday...today, not as much.

ABR is probably a pretty controversial element of my list. But here's where I found going through Day 1 with LML-scum knowledge very interesting. I could totally envision a scum ABR making all of his posts with the idea that he'd get on the LML wagon fast and hard enough to give him some credibility later if LML ever got lynched, but never push hard enough to ensure that the lynch happened. The meta he employs makes this very doable -- he can be on an LML wagon and be very insistent about it without anyone taking him seriously, because he contributes essentially nothing in terms of an argument. And then he was quite happy to abandon that wagon in favor of greener pastures that don't get his scumbuddy LML lynched. His waffling between ABR and LML looks, retroactively, like someone who wants to appear anti-LML, but would really prefer to lynch someone else. After his first exodus from the LMLmobile, he gets back on (seemingly reluctabtly) only after prodding by VitR. My only real concern about this argument are the two times where ABR actually does defend LML's posting (posts 309 and 454), which seems slightly off. Nonetheless, reading day 1 with an ABR-LML pairing in mind felt like a very natural fit.

Porochaz hasn't posted enough to get a solid read, but he, like LML, has done nothing to me that seems pro-town. I'm a little surprised by his absence on other people's scumlists -- perhaps there's an argument I was forgetting? In fact, I even found his drunk post a little scummy, though I can't seem to be able to articulate why.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Yep, it's confirmed. mathcam is scum. Bookitty, fetch me some rope.

[MrBuddyLee]

While I don't think we should necessarily go after LML-busers today or those that LML bused, I think it's important to make it clear that

busing his scumpartners

has historically been a huge and even

pathological

part of LML's play. I posted this last Tuesday, about twelve hours before LML "slipped" that he was being bused:

I will also state for the record that in the game I replaced him as scum (Himalayan Mafia), LML bused tidus_of_zanarkand and DGB mercilessly. On DGB:

You seem to be very buddy buddy with DGB. I implore you to look AWAY from your friendliness and lynch her, Lloyd. She masically SLIPPED. I quoted it and pounced on it RIGHT AWAY. I have referenced said quote a HUNDRED TIMES.

I'm even willing to bet my mafia life on it.

Overstating confidence in one's guilt is, apparently, scummy.

I will be pretty shocked if one of the three people LML went after aggressively is not scum. UT, StD, PJ:

I still feel strongly that one or both of UT and STD is scum. Look at the patterns.

I'm nearly positive that PJ will flip red

StD was mentioned in 10 LML posts, and LML found StD WAY more scummy than most people did. That's an outlier, and deserves to be looked at carefully.

We can debate whether or not LML was bused, and use that as supporting evidence for more solid theories. But based on LML's history and psychological make-up, I think it's less debatable that he was almost certainly busing one or more of his scumpartners. In a "high stakes" game like this, I think he hoped to gain towncred and make it to the end by bagging a partner early.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Lay down your votes, fools.

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

Bookitty seems more reasonable now, I can more see where she might have been coming from. If true, her thought-process was not particularly well thought-out.

2.)

Glork, however, does not seem much more reasonable. Why are you resorting to cursing to emphasize your points? And you are again avoiding answering my questions by waving your hand at me. To repeat myself:

->

a.)

Why are you not voting for VitaminR?

->

b.)

Why have you spent more time arguing against wagons as opposed to arguing for your

own

preferred targets?

->

c.)

When you argue against wagons, why are you continually arguing against the weakest possible form (strawmanning) to do so? When MafiaSSK was being wagoned, you falsely acted like the wagon was based solely on theory. When LoudmouthLee was being wagoned, you tried to emphasize the discussion on "why would LoudmouthLee vote Untrod Tripod" as opposed to "why would LoudmouthLee write up this Vote Count Analysis?" And now with DrippingGoofball you are acting like those voting her are doing so because she defended LoudmouthLee, when the stated reasons against her obviously include other aspects of her play.

3.)

DrippingGoofball not understanding the implied Doctor claim I can believe.

But DrippingGoofball gave the definite impression that LoudmouthLee had breadcrumbed Roleblocker with his Hickory Dickory Dock poem, which is very difficult to believe. Especially after quoting my Day One post where I noted that LoudmouthLee essentially claimed Doctor, but suddenly acts confused when

Glork

mentions on Day Two that LoudmouthLee claimed Doctor.

4.)

mathcam, for the record, my questions still pending to you are:

->

a.)

Can we see some of your "little +1s and -1s" (i.e., your notes). I question whether they really exist.

->

b.)

Please explain in your own words why you "saw the arguments" against VitaminR on Day One?

What

arguments? I fail to see how this question is patronizing. I want to see

your

reasoning and not somebody else's reasoning. I explained as much Post #821.

I also do not like the fact that you answered Yosarian2's question of who you would pursue of Bookitty flips

Town

with "if Bookitty flips

scum

, VitaminR will be a point of interest." You didn't answer the question at all. And if you "see the arguments against VitaminR" then VitaminR should be a "point of interest" independent of Bookitty's alignment. Or were you saying that you "saw the arguments against VitaminR...

in the event Bookitty is scum

"?

I am basically failing to understand what your entire line of thought was in terms of VitaminR. I see that you now have a slight Pro-Town read on VitaminR, but that should not make it more difficult for you to recount what you originally saw against him.

~

5.)

Prepost Edit: Nice of you to chime in again, MrBuddyLee.

In the Himalayan Mafia game both you and DrippingGoofball have mentioned at length, you emphasize that LoudmouthLee hard-bussed two of his partners. Given that both you and DrippingGoofball are intimately aware of this game of LoudmouthLee, what are your thoughts on LoudmouthLee doing the same thing in this game? You both apparently remember it very well -- why do you not think LoudmouthLee would not similarly have that game on his mind? Does he strike you as a creature of habit who cannot adapt for an invitational game filled with Oldies? Does the fact that this game is not (and likely never was going to be) a Mountainous game change how you think LoudmouthLee might approach this game? Did you feel like he was

actually

trying to get anybody lynched besides me?

I can see and understand the argument that LoudmouthLee may well have been bussing a partner. He certainly could have been. But your argument that it is practically a necessary part of his play to feed his own ego (or "need to be right") gives LoudmouthLee very little credit. Do you have experience of LoudmouthLeescum beyond Himalayan Mafia you are drawing from?

What are your thoughts on DrippingGoofball?

[MrBuddyLee]

What are your thoughts on DrippingGoofball?

For someone who adamantly refused to lynch LML, I'm finding her relatively ait at the moment.

@DGB

, how did you arrive at your solid town read of STD earlier this weekend? Has your opinion changed since then? Based on what evidence?

@PJ

, what's your take on the interactions between LML and STD? Do you agree that LML's aggressive suspicion of STD was an outlier, and if so, how do you interpret that?

[MrBuddyLee]

I remember LML as someone who can bus hard as scum and my first thought was that he might have doing his best on his pj attack in order to create distance between them.

a hard bus (by LML) is reasonable to conclude, especially based on past performances.

Eons ago I played with LML and we were both scum. We bus'ed each other insanely all of day 1 and I ended up being the lynch.

Unless someone wants to provide evidence to contradict, it appears that LML buses more aggressively and more commonly than average. I wasted a little time just now trying to support/undercut these claims, found a game where he bused the mafia godfather day one (lol), and couldn't find a ton more evidence either way. I do recall doing this once in the past re: LML and coming to the conclusion that he was a ruthless buser.

As for whether he'd change it up for this game to be crafty, he didn't exactly seem on top of his game as scum, so it'd surprise me if he was that proactive. You go with what got ya there, and to an extent, busing is a foundation of his play.

His case on you was a disaster, PJ. His cases on STD and UT were vastly overblown. On STD in particular, he really wanted it known that he found the guy suspicious, even after he moved his vote. He stated high levels of confidence of scumminess based on lousy cases, and I think that implies that he 1) may have thought his cases were better than they were and 2) that he had inside information that one or more of his targets were a bingo. The less likely alternative imo is 3) he was making knowingly bad cases on townies and repeatedly drawing attention to them knowing that behavior would expose him to a lynch soon.

[Porochaz]

The mouse ran up the clock.
The clock struck one. The mouse ran down.

So you're not going to claim, but are you going to imply (i.e., essentially claim) you are a Doc(tor).

I would not suggest anybody give opinions on his claim, as doing so will only help scum hunt for power. Votes, please -- we have very little time.

The mouse ran up the clock.
The clock struck one. The mouse ran down.

When I see a riddle or a puzzle, my brain shuts down.

So you're not going to claim, but are you going to imply (i.e., essentially claim) you are a Doc(tor).

I would not suggest anybody give opinions on his claim, as doing so will only help scum hunt for power. Votes, please -- we have very little time.

We can still elect Untrod Tripod for TOWN MAYOR!!!

Looks like I raised someones ire.

Anyway I am unable to make as full a post as I like because work but considering pj explicitly stated what LML was doing in

the very next post

and you referenced it and pj's reply

2 posts later!

Even without knowing the rhyme - which you know, you could have looked up, but I'll accept you didn't - you can't miss it, it was in a post you directly replied to!!!

[Porochaz]

3 post later but still, same point.

[mathcam]

-> a.) Can we see some of your "little +1s and -1s" (i.e., your notes). I question whether they really exist.

Now

that's

patronizing. Would me now posting a series of "Player X, +1, Player Y, -1" really alleviate your concerns that these things existed at the time I posted it? How would you know I didn't just add these retroactively? In any case, what's your suspicion? That I entered a 22-page game and took no notes on the game at all? I also think I made it clear that the process of +1/-1 was an oversimplification of my actual notes structure. But lest I be accused of being obstructionist, here's my list:

Tigris -1
Glork +1
VitaminR -1
GC +1
ABR -1
Tigris +1
Yos2 +1 (comes in, votes, and leaves)
Seol -1
UT +1
PJ +1
CES -2
CTD +1
Glork +2
chamber +1
undo -1
Yos +1
ABR +1
Shanba +1
LML -1
STD +1
LML +1
ABR +1
Chamber +1
DGB +1
Zorblag +1
Yos +1
DGB +1
STD +1
Boo +1

I have no doubt that someone who cared enough could find an inconsistency between the aggregate numbers and how I voted yesterday -- let me emphasize again that I don't have a numerical scumminess formula, or anything of the sort, and that these are just emotional assignments that came to me as I read.

I withdraw the "patronizing" remark with regard to the second question -- I forgot that that was in reference to something I said. The initial argument I suspect I was referencing was Yos's from post 108. On first read, this was compelling, as it was one of the few arguments that early in the game that actually had an argument to back it up (that is, a specific and not implausible scenario constructed in which VitaminR could be scum and which explained an action that Yos found dubious) . On my most recent reread, I came down on the other side, thinking there were too many jumps for the argument to be entirely plausible. That doesn't mean it wasn't a good argument, just that I don't find it compelling enough to put too man -1's in Vit's column because of it.

[mathcam]

I meant to add one more comment about my scum assignments from two posts ago, particularly relevant given the current discussion. One of the reasons I have UT as slightly scummy is because of LML's "attack" on him. At the time, LML was not a definitive lynch for the day, but was looking increasingly likely -- enough so that LML was probably thinking about how to best exit. His argument against UT was essentially nonsense, and may have simply been an attempt to distance UT from himself, especially given how short-lived his vote was there. I don't think this quite fits the mold of bussing that the current discussion is on, but I found it noteworthy.

ABR: I don't think I understand how my post solidifies my scumminess for you. Could you elaborate? Or is it entirely OMGUS?

[mathcam]

Sorry for the triple post -- I see that I still missed a point of PJ.

I also do not like the fact that you answered Yosarian2's question of who you would pursue of Bookitty flips Town with "if Bookitty flips scum, VitaminR will be a point of interest." You didn't answer the question at all.

I did not have an answer, so I answered a closely related question which I thought might be informative. I don't really see how you can find this as deceptive. Clarification: when you say "You don't like" something, do you mean that you find it scummy, or that you find it disagreeable? Or is there a difference for you?

[DrippingGoofball]

he can be on an LML wagon and be very insistent about it without anyone taking him seriously, because he contributes essentially nothing in terms of an argument. And then he was quite happy to abandon that wagon in favor of greener pastures that don't get his scumbuddy LML lynched.

Rest assured that if ABR was scum, he wouldn't half-ass bus LML. He'd be all in.

[DrippingGoofball]

While I don't think we should necessarily go after LML-busers today or those that LML bused, I think it's important to make it clear that busing his scumpartners has historically been a huge and even pathological part of LML's play. I posted this last Tuesday, about twelve hours before LML "slipped" that he was being bused:

I don't recall the name of the game, it was one of the earliest ones I played on the site, and it was not Himalayan Mafia. It was yet another game.

LML & I were buddies.

Day 1, he bus'ed me so hard and so aggressively, I reacted in anger by bus'ing him as hard as he bus'ed me. We both staked out mafia lives on the other being scum, LOL. I ended up the Day 1 (or maybe Day 2?) lynch, and he coasted to victory on the basis of how hard that bus was, he was wrongly conftown all game.