NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)


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Post Post #1325 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 11:47 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

Yosarian2 wrote: I think there's a lot of people who have wanted to lynch undo for a while, but just never really saw a chance.
I don't doubt that. I'm trying to be cautious because I too am not opposed to an undo bandwagon (not sure I would go so far and say lynch quite yet), but the way it just sprung, with a couple people who haven't even breathed undo's name so far gives me pause.

Early day 1 I thought that undo was a little bit more reactionary and less invested in volunteering thoughts, and that his volunteered thoughts were intentionally away from major town events going on. I kind of changed course after I didn't quite like your suspicion of him and I'll admit that he's kind of flown back under the radar in favor of other targets.

I'll take a look at his ISO soon but I'm still hesitant to give up on DGB.
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Post Post #1326 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 11:51 am

Post by Green Crayons »

Also an undo-vote is the first alternative that sprung up after the DGB wagon, which I'm sure has something to do with its sudden rush of popularity.

I haven't really been keeping up beyond skimming for the past day or two. I'll make a point of actually reading sometime this weekend.
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Post Post #1327 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 1:18 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Most important first:
@DGB:
I am keeping good thoughts for you. As someone who has been dazzled by the accuracy of the scumputer, I respect you as a canny player. But you're also a friend. So please take care of yourself.

I'm going to do a reread this weekend (I may have said this before). I like MBL's posting and I was already suspicious of Undo, but I want to check on some things for myself.
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Post Post #1328 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 1:18 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 1189, Save The Dragons wrote:I think I'll reserve further judgment until undo gives the analysis, though.
Ok, undo's analysis is in. Actually, it was in like 36 hours ago. What's your take on 1) him giving townreads and 2) his "distancing" analysis? And what's your take on undo's play around deadline D1 and early D2?


@undo
, this is more what I think when I think "distancing":
In post 237, Save The Dragons wrote:I also kind of want to know how he(LML) feels about my rational for chasing after undo.
STD attempts to draw town's attention to the fact that he's chasing undo, even though he's not voting undo anymore, he's voting LML. STD also attempts to draw town's attention to his involvement with LML, but it's a weird question, because why would STD's #1 suspect particularly care about STD's reason for suspecting his #2 suspect?

Weird interactions like that, where you see "interaction" but can't really place the town motivation for that interaction are what I'd call distancing. STD had a lot of interactions with undo and LML (is in undo's "often interacted with LML" list) but unvoted undo after 20 hours to revote Seol, and unvoted LML after 3 days to vote Zorblag.

Interestingly, both the undo unvote and the LML unvote were accompanied by jokes, hinting at a guilty conscience or need to distract:
STD wrote:undo: vote: undo, redo: vote: Seol

wait, that's not right.

Unvote: undo, Vote: Seol
STD wrote:Unvote, Vote: Zorblag

I'm number 1!
So yeah, that's a little more what I think of when I think "distancing". What do you think, undo and STD?
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Post Post #1329 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 2:24 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 1328, MrBuddyLee wrote:
In post 1189, Save The Dragons wrote:I think I'll reserve further judgment until undo gives the analysis, though.
Ok, undo's analysis is in. Actually, it was in like 36 hours ago. What's your take on 1) him giving townreads and 2) his "distancing" analysis? And what's your take on undo's play around deadline D1 and early D2?
You're right. I overlooked his most recent postings. I'll try to get to this tonight or tomorrow.
In post 1328, MrBuddyLee wrote: STD attempts to draw town's attention to the fact that he's chasing undo, even though he's not voting undo anymore, he's voting LML. STD also attempts to draw town's attention to his involvement with LML, but it's a weird question, because why would STD's #1 suspect particularly care about STD's reason for suspecting his #2 suspect?
A) I do only have 1 vote. But more importantly:

B) His first point against me was that my question with undo was strange. I'll admit the very beginning of day 1 I was keeping my cards close to the chest. When I realized that wasn't getting me anywhere, I decided to say fuck it and open up. I gave an explanation and he didn't say anything about, and I wanted a response. The fact that he didn't give one helped push me over the edge to vote for him.

Here's the posts that lead to that quote:
In post 110, LoudmouthLee wrote:What's more telling, however, was Undo asking a legitimate question, and STD running to defend Albert's lack of substance.

<snip>

Vote: Save the Dragons
In post 113, Save The Dragons wrote: Then undo comes along. He blazes over the (again to be fair, only 3 legitimate) wagons and his eyes narrow to the aforementioned post like a teenage boy starting at a pair of boobies and having the rest of the world just dissapear around him.

So why is his vote still in the RVS?
From my viewpoint it looks like you've taken statements out of context, made your own context of "well, it must be scum motivated because I personally can't identify the town motivation." Let me know if you still can't find any town motivation.
In post 1328, MrBuddyLee wrote: Interestingly, both the undo unvote and the LML unvote were accompanied by jokes, hinting at a guilty conscience or need to distract:
Interestingly, half the things I've said in this game are either tongue in cheek, sarcastic, or jovial in nature. Is it possible that this hints at the fact I'm just
an annoying
a humorous player?
In post 377, Save The Dragons wrote:
Unvote, Vote: Zorblag


I'm number 1!

<snip>

Vote: PJ


If later in the day we all decide to lynch LML, please, please, please don't be surprised if I jump on that wagon hardcore.
Part of that <snip> includes my suspicions of PJ. Voting for Zorblag was a joke. I suppose that you're more concerned with the unvote, but honestly I wasn't sure that LML was going to get lynched at that time, so I moved on to another target, with that stipulation at the end (that I realize may look even more like distancing, but once again I had one vote).
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Post Post #1330 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 2:40 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 1329, Save The Dragons wrote:You're right. I overlooked his most recent postings. I'll try to get to this tonight or tomorrow.
Very much looking forward to this, thank you. Also looking forward to undo's comments on the type of distancing STD is noticing in his own posts, and why that type of distancing gets no play in undo's "distancing analysis".
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Post Post #1331 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 3:28 pm

Post by VitaminR »

I wish I was as convincing as MBL apparently is. That undo wagon grew rapidly out of nowhere and doesn't seem based on very much.
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Post Post #1332 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 3:32 pm

Post by Sotty7 »

In post 1322, Save The Dragons wrote:Hmm. I'm not convinced undo is town, but that's a lot of sudden undo hate.

At the moment I still like DGB better.
Agree with this. In related news my town read on CES has dissipated to pretty much nothingness. His vote on Undo was the worst. Not around to actively post in the game but just happened to be around to wagon Undo. Yeeeeeeeah....

MBL's more recent postings are more of what I remember from him. Makes me feel better, not on board with his vote but the question to STD about his fixation on LML's reaction to his Undo vote during early day one was a good one.
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Post Post #1333 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 3:41 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

And the answer?
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Post Post #1334 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 3:56 pm

Post by Sotty7 »

Reasonable for sure. Your explanation posts have all tended to be excellent. Early day one when you were voting with little to nothing out there you felt scummy, but as soon as you started to detail your reads I felt a lot better because it felt a lot like natural scum hunting. I just remember seeing what MBL saw in your post asking about LML's reaction to your Undo vote. It makes me feel like MBL is also actively scum hunting and not just sitting back like I thought he was.
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Post Post #1335 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 4:12 pm

Post by chamber »

CES's vote for undo was completely alignment neutral, I could have told you he would do that before he did.
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Post Post #1336 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 4:15 pm

Post by Sotty7 »

You know what you could be right. It was just bad timing for me as my read has been changing and he pops up like that. I'll cop to some bias there.

Chamber, what's your opinion on CTD?
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Post Post #1337 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 5:02 pm

Post by chamber »

townish I guess? I don't have a particularly well developed opinion on him.
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Post Post #1338 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 5:12 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 1331, VitaminR wrote:That undo wagon grew rapidly out of nowhere and doesn't seem based on very much.
What's your take on undo's play overall, other than "agree with Glork" and "wagon not based on much"?
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Post Post #1339 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 5:36 pm

Post by mathcam »

1) I agree with the alarm at the speed at which this undo wagon arose. I agree with Yos's diagnosis that this is representative of some latent undo-scum-feelings that have surfaced because of the opportunity, but it is precisely this potential opportunism that gives me pause. I myself don't find the arguments against undo particularly compelling -- in my mind, these consist of (1) suspicion of his data dump, which I find to be not-unhelpful (and not a claimed substitute for actual scum hinting), and (2) his absence of significant comment on the LML-wagon. The latter has some merit, but not enough to switch my vote.

I feel like many of the same people would have voted for Sotty had the opportunity arose...just general suspicion of people they don't feel like they have a great read on. While I can somewhat sympathize with this behavior, I think it only has merit when there aren't genuinely suspicious players around (which I feel we have).

2)
inhim wrote:Nothing in this post definitively implies you think she (DGB) might be scum. Do you think that's a possibility?
Absolutely. I'm the first admit that I find her play style essentially unreadable, but I think she has done so many anti-town things recently (stance on LML, outing her perceived cop, the debate with ABR) to make her lynchworthy completely independent of any reads.

3) I think GC comes out a little ahead in the GC vs. glork debate, but this seems so far from relevant at the moment that it's not worth digging to deeply into. We can revisit later if need be.

4) Found an interesting quote:
GC, in post 1156 wrote: Bookitty isn't scum.
A little suspicious -- uncharacteristically declarative for GC, I think. How do you know? (I realize that there was a lot of context in that post before that quote, but I'll let you make that case instead of me).

But most importantly:


5) I still think ABR is the best candidate. I think he was bussing LML, and got off the wagon any time he thought there was an opportunity to put focus elsewhere. (Note: I'm not attaching this to the argument that LML slipped when he said bussing -- that's irrelevant as far as I'm concerned). I think ABR's slip in 1144 was a genuine scum slip, since as PJ eloquently points out in 1166, the sentence doesn't even make sense if we switch the name out for the correct one (KK -- I don't understand why you don't find that argument convincing). Finally, I think his interactions with DGB today are absurdly anti-town. For example he did seem genuinely convinced I was scum, but then chose to vote DGB out of claimed spite? I find it much more likely he was taking advantage of the "easy target".
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Post Post #1340 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:03 pm

Post by Untrod Tripod »

In post 1339, mathcam wrote:I feel like many of the same people would have voted for Sotty had the opportunity arose
Image

got you something for what is apparently your new hobby
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Post Post #1341 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:20 pm

Post by mathcam »

Har har! I think if you read the posts today involving sotty, you'll find this less of a jump than I do.

In other news, 59 posts in this game, and not once have you even mentioned sotty. Interesting.
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Post Post #1342 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:24 pm

Post by Untrod Tripod »

wow great sleuthing

you've found the whole scumteam by looking at two unflipped players, one of whom hasn't mentioned the other by halfway through day 2
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Post Post #1343 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:26 pm

Post by mathcam »

Ooh, someone's pretty defensive. Interesting.
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Post Post #1344 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:51 pm

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Unvote, vote Untrod Tripod
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Post Post #1345 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:17 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

@cam
, I understand that you think the cases presented on undo are thin. What's your personal analysis of his play?
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Post Post #1346 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:04 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 1339, mathcam wrote: 2)
inhim wrote:Nothing in this post definitively implies you think she (DGB) might be scum. Do you think that's a possibility?
Absolutely. I'm the first admit that I find her play style essentially unreadable, but I think she has done so many anti-town things recently (stance on LML, outing her perceived cop, the debate with ABR) to make her lynchworthy completely independent of any reads.
Pretty sure I wrote that, not inhim.

Have you made this stance known at any point in day 2? "Go F yourself STD search my posts" is a valid answer, I just want to save myself some time since I'm already going through undo's posts which has me searching other people's posts to verify if his reads seem legit.

How likely do you think a DGB-ABR pairing is?

----

MBL, what do you think of the speed of the wagon built on undo, considering the other wagons in this game?

(I know I'm just wasting my breath because you're waiting for my post on undo to continue talking to me (or rather not talk to me) but I thought I'd ask anyway. It's coming.).

----
In post 1344, Albert B. Rampage wrote:
Unvote, vote Untrod Tripod
Hi ABR! I'm apparently a masochist, because I find myself asking you another question.

What's different about his votes than the other votes for undo?
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Post Post #1347 (ISO) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:09 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 1346, Save The Dragons wrote:MBL, what do you think of the speed of the wagon built on undo, considering the other wagons in this game?
Too fast on the face of it, but I have good feelings about at least a few of the votes on undo. I know Poro and Glork have spoken out about undo previously, gotta check on the rest.
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Post Post #1348 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 1:54 am

Post by Sotty7 »

In post 1341, mathcam wrote:Har har! I think if you read the posts today involving sotty, you'll find this less of a jump than I do.

In other news, 59 posts in this game, and not once have you even mentioned sotty. Interesting.
Did you control f? We had a little back and forth early in the game about VitR. Post 145 though 149. Also, what's so interesting about it?
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Post Post #1349 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 3:14 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 1332, Sotty7 wrote:In related news my town read on CES has dissipated to pretty much nothingness. His vote on Undo was the worst. Not around to actively post in the game but just happened to be around to wagon Undo. Yeeeeeeeah....
I was going to make a serious post about mathcam's approach to DGb and ABR because I felt I should but then I saw chamber vote for undo and it just seemed like the right thing to do.
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