NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)


User avatar
mathcam
mathcam
Captain Observant
User avatar
User avatar
mathcam
Captain Observant
Captain Observant
Posts: 6116
Joined: November 22, 2002

Post Post #1350 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 3:58 am

Post by mathcam »

[quote"MBL"]@cam, I understand that you think the cases presented on undo are thin. What's your personal analysis of his play?[/quote]

Not much. I have a general "I don't have a read on him, so lean scummy" opinion, and haven't mentioned him in my notes much. I haven't done a full ISO to gather opinions, but I feel like I already have sufficient targets today, and if someone wants to sway my vote elsewhere, I'm happy to listen to arguments. I just don't think the argument is there yet.
STD wrote: Pretty sure I wrote that, not inhim.

Have you made this stance known at any point in day 2?
Oops, sorry. I kind of mix you two up sometimes -- I think I might have even wrote that in the way-old thread about scammers you always mistake for other scammers.

And...maybe? I think it's gatherable from my interactions with DGB today (and I would have thought relatively obvious at all).
STD wrote: How likely do you think a DGB-ABR pairing is?
Not.
sotty wrote: Did you control f? We had a little back and forth early in the game about VitR. Post 145 though 149. Also, what's so interesting about it?
Yup. I don't understand the last question -- how
isn't
notable when one player hasn't mentioned another for the whole game? I agree this is somewhat mitigated by conversations with you that didn't involve him writing your name.
User avatar
Green Crayons
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Green Crayons
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7612
Joined: September 21, 2002
Location: Richmond, VA

Post Post #1351 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 4:01 am

Post by Green Crayons »

@ABR:
In post 1344, Albert B. Rampage wrote:
Unvote, vote Untrod Tripod
Stop doing this.

-----

@mathcam:


(1) If you couldn't vote either ABR or DGB, who would be your next two lynch candidates and why (not requesting fully fleshed out cases -- unless if you want to do so -- just a general sentiment about your suspicions)?

(2)
In post 1339, mathcam wrote:4) Found an interesting quote:
GC, in post 1156 wrote:Bookitty isn't scum.
A little suspicious -- uncharacteristically declarative for GC, I think. How do you know? (I realize that there was a lot of context in that post before that quote, but I'll let you make that case instead of me).
At first I thought this was something I posted at the end of D1, but upon review I see it was a part of a long post about why a Glork vote is correct. Which makes much more sense, because by that point in time I had already espoused that view that Bookitty is town and further justifying that point in the post in which this statement was made would be a weird aside.

At any rate: Bookitty is town because (A) the suspicions of Seol -- based on 4 total posts at the beginning of D1 -- do not hold up, and (B) I find Bookitty's overall play, including her response to late D1 pressure and her D2 explanation of her D1 suspicions/play, indicative of a town alignment.

-----

@undo:
do you still believe that Bookitty is scum?

-----

UNVOTE: Glork, for now.

VOTE: inHim, because:

(1) Because LML did this w/r/t Narishasha:
In post 372, chamber wrote:You keep calling Nat the VI wagon this game, but he wasn't. Nat was never going to get lynched for those votes, they were just forcing him to participate or replace out. The VI wagon this game has been an is on MafiaSSK.
(2)
In post 539, undo wrote:
De Zorblag


<snip>

I also don’t like Zorblag's jump on the Porochaz wagon. About Green Canyons, Zorblag insists “That’s how I would play as scum”; about Porochaz, he says “I know that he's busy, but I don't feel like he's caring.“ Zorblag seems to suggest GC is scummier than Porochaz, but between the active poster and the lurker, he chooses the latter to vote. Indeed, lurkers are less likely to give you trouble, while GC is well able to present a strong defense.
(3) Because inHim replaced in on , LML was lynched on , but inHim didn't want to post until . Conveniently not having to weigh in on the LML/Bookitty dueling wagons.

(4) Because there's a running theme with this slot:
In post 200, Natirasha wrote:Yeah I don't really feel like reading the thread.

chamber who do I vote?
In post 1005, inHimshallibe wrote:Highly unlikely to read D1 right now.
Also, this solidifies inHim's refusal to weigh in on the LML/Bookitty dueling wagons. Like, it's fair if you don't want to read all 35 pages of D1 -- because that really sucks -- but this is an outright refusal to even look into LML's play.

(5) Because inHim hasn't said anything about the LML's scum flip. (The only arguable post, , states it in a conditional tense -- as if inHim is saying
if
there's anything to glean from LML's flip, then maybe it would be good to say that CTD is scummy.)
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
User avatar
undo
undo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
undo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1141
Joined: March 27, 2007

Post Post #1352 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 5:11 am

Post by undo »

This looks like fun! Let’s take a look at this express wagon.

1. MBL
: his post , which led to his vote on me, looks like a legitimate effort at scumhunting (even if its conclusion is wrong). Probably town.

2. Glork
: repeats the case (which I had already responded to) he had made earlier to vote me. Apparently he was reluctant to start the wagon on me, so he jumped on it as soon as MBL gave the lead. May be scum.

3. chamber
: He probably just wants to see my back. Sorry, chamber, I’m going to stick around for a little while longer.

4. CES
: Don’t know.
Voted me because chamber, his inseparable companion, did it?
Yeap, apparently .

5. 6. Yosarian and Porochaz
: They’ve been having bad feelings about me since Day 1 but were unsure about acting upon them. This wagon was an opportunity to scratch an old itch, even though they don’t even know exactly why they suspect me. They’re probably town.

7. Untrod Tripod
: Now this was an opportunistic jump. UT had never expressed any suspicion on me before (if anything, he has defended me twice – once in response to a Porochaz suspicion, and once more recently in response to Glork’s attack of my DGB vote). This 7th vote “just to get the game going” seems an odd one out. Can be scum.

~~~~~

Now for some particular issues raised:
MBL wrote: @undo, please explain your "distancing" analysis. Was your intent to find "distancing scum" in the group of people who interacted least with LML? Can you please explain how that kind of distancing (essentially ignoring) is more effective distancing than interacting a lot with LML?
Yes, that was my intent. But hey, you are voting me because you considered I was the one of the players who most ignored LML and the LML wagon Day 1, right? (Your exact words: “undo avoided giving his opinion of LML all day, was not around/willing to hammer”). I take it, then, that you too are trying to find scum among the people who interacted least with LML. Therefore I’m sure you understand my intent perfectly.
Glork wrote: your response (saying you don't care about wagons, and that it's subjective) is like the biggest cop out ever.
You think? I reckon it’s a suitable response to your case, which is the most effortless one ever (“Hey look! We’re on Day 2 and he jumped on two big wagons both days”) :roll:
Glork wrote:You cited your issues with MafiaSSK's opinion on a large wagon versus a spread of votes.

Yet your own voting behaviors fall into the same "scummy" theory that led you to go take a critical eye towards MafiaSSK to begin with.


[…]

The focus of your analysis and behaviors and votes fly in the face of the very theoretical argument that led you to MafiaSSK. You don't want a spread of votes. You don't want parity. You don't want to look elsewhere and discern multiple players' alignments.
^^lol. I see you’re one of that kind who likes to distort the facts into sensationalist formulations.

MafiaSSK voted Tigris because she(?) didn’t jump on your wagon. I repeat: he VOTED someone because that person chose not to hop on the largest wagon at the time (which, on top of all, was RVS). His theory was that large bandwagons are always “guaranteed information”, and those who don’t jump on large bandwagons are likely to hurt town by depriving it of that information (something like this).

What I said was (to paraphrase): “I disagree completely -- MafiaSSK’s theory seems to be against the search for multiple targets. That kind of thinking potentially hurts the town and it surely is counterproductive in such an early stage of the game”.

You’ll noticed I NEVER said I was against bandwagonning back then, and conversely I have NEVER expressed suspicion on someone for not bandwagonning in my most recent posts.

Basically, I didn’t like MafiaSSK defending bandwagons as the only way to gather information as opposed to vote spread. To you that means I’m not morally allowed to bandwagon? Seriously, do you even realize the huge mammoth fallacy in your logic?
Glork wrote:or even
revisited mathcam after he replaced MafiaSSK
. You could be delving deeper into my behavioral patterns, given you have expressed "mixed feelings" on me.
I actually did that.
You’re throwing crap at me and you didn’t even read my posts? Also, who said I am not looking into you?

UNVOTE: DGB
VOTE: Glork

Using grossly fallacious, sensationalist arguments against someone to try and make him look bad is something town would never do. Glork is an experienced player and he knows how to use rhetoric in his favor – he just made the mistake of underestimating me. LML did the same thing against PJ Day 1 and I should have been more severe about that back then.
User avatar
undo
undo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
undo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1141
Joined: March 27, 2007

Post Post #1353 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 5:27 am

Post by undo »

ABR wrote:Untrod Tripod's vote on undo wasn't town.
Does that mean you are positive I’m town?
mathcam wrote:Not much. I have a general "I don't have a read on him, so lean scummy" opinion, and haven't mentioned him in my notes much. I haven't done a full ISO to gather opinions, but I feel like I already have sufficient targets today, and if someone wants to sway my vote elsewhere, I'm happy to listen to arguments. I just don't think the argument is there yet.
Hey mathcam. I appreciate you being a pondered and reasonable person about this wagon, but you did FoS me Day 1 (because you felt I had twisted your words, if I am not mistaken). How has that evolved into a no-read?
GC wrote:@undo: do you still believe that Bookitty is scum?
I have skimmed through her Day 2 posts. The roleblocker-crumb justification is valid but it doesn't clear her -- plus she does say she had catch that before entering the game, so she's definitely not a safe townread for that.

And I still don't like her over-emotional, self-deprecating tone ("I was paranoid on the subject :( "; "I feel really stupid now"; to cite some Day 2 examples). I actually think that tendency is harmful both to town and herself; if she is town, she should really make an effort to cut down on it IMO.
User avatar
Sotty7
Sotty7
That Damn Good
User avatar
User avatar
Sotty7
That Damn Good
That Damn Good
Posts: 6744
Joined: October 7, 2005
Location: Minnesota

Post Post #1354 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 5:31 am

Post by Sotty7 »

In post 1350, mathcam wrote:
sotty wrote: Did you control f? We had a little back and forth early in the game about VitR. Post 145 though 149. Also, what's so interesting about it?
Yup. I don't understand the last question -- how
isn't
notable when one player hasn't mentioned another for the whole game? I agree this is somewhat mitigated by conversations with you that didn't involve him writing your name.
Interesting is just such a vague way of characterizing it though. I guess my question really should have been do you find it scummy? Unless it's just something you want to remember for later I suppose depending on flips. Eh it just rubbed me the wrong way considering you have me as town.

Unvote, Vote: inhim


GreenCrayons case is pretty excellent. Having just re-read the part of the game were Zorblag replaces in I can agree with him being pretty damn scummy. The biggest thing I noticed is that Zor started with a roundabout attack on GreenCrayons with this here:
In post 416, Zorblag wrote:@Green Crayons: Would you say that you're following the game on the whole fairly closely? Who is the scummiest of the players that you haven't particularly talked about so far?
At this point of the game GC had been one of the top contributors so the question of asking him had he been reading closely just struck me as completely insincere. GC was voting for LML at this time and was perhaps a little slower than most when it came to coming back after the crash but nothing really noteworthy. I can't help but feel this was a potshot fired at one of LML's biggest pushers at this point in the game.
In post 460, Zorblag wrote:
In post 425, Green Crayons wrote:
@Zorblag:

In post 416, Zorblag wrote:
@Green Crayons:
Would you say that you're following the game on the whole fairly closely? Who is the scummiest of the players that you haven't particularly talked about so far?
(1) Yes.
(2) This is a loaded question that would be asked by scum.
@Green Crayons, it's really more an attempt to get some evidence that you're paying attention to the game, but I guess thanks for calling an attempt to get a feel for your game scummy?

Your answer on it's own was particularly uninspiring, but the rest of that post and the posts that you've made since then actually do make me think that you are paying attention to the game and trying to determine alignments. The fact that you're now laying out some town reads and not quibbling about language in the posts that you make, but really examining what the motivation for the overall tactics used (for, say LoudmouthLee) does more to assuage my concerns than any direct answer to a question I might have asked would have. I'd still be happy to hear what you think of scummy play beyond what you've mentioned, but it's now more possible in my opinion that you actually care about figuring out alignments in this game.
His response to GC's abrupt reply is to simply back away giving the reasoning that his other posts look better. In reality there is little difference between GC post that I can see. I just seems like a convenient excuse to move away from a perhaps more dangerous player while keeping his pressure on Porochaz who was still trying to catch up with his pbpa. I said at the time and will say again, the fact he continued to pressure Poro at this point was very harsh and it felt like he was trying to justify why he was still there without actually taking any of the content Poro was producing and sorting though it. He just dismisses it.
In post 460, Zorblag wrote:@Porochaz, is there any reason that I shouldn't think that you're spewing some superficial reaction to the game now that you've got some votes on you? I know that you're busy and have other things on your mind, but you've got enough experience at mafia that there's no way you should have expected a post by post analysis to give you a concerted read on players which is what you should really be interested in if you're town and trying to find scum. Right now I'm seeing effort to show effort, but I'm not seeing town who cares about the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh
I'm also very much not a fan of inhim skipping the end of day one.
User avatar
Sotty7
Sotty7
That Damn Good
User avatar
User avatar
Sotty7
That Damn Good
That Damn Good
Posts: 6744
Joined: October 7, 2005
Location: Minnesota

Post Post #1355 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 5:33 am

Post by Sotty7 »

The only thing that still concerns me about Bookitty is that she seems reactionary lately. This just could be because she doesn't have time to re-read which I can understand. I would like to see that change though once she gets a better grip on the game.
User avatar
Porochaz
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
User avatar
User avatar
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
Oh, Prozac
Posts: 9317
Joined: September 6, 2007

Post Post #1356 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:29 am

Post by Porochaz »

13 units of cider, sitting on a wall,
13 units of cider, sitting on a wall,
Thats not enough, to make Prozac fall.
So he will drink more and then post for you all.
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
User avatar
Patrick
Patrick
Rantbuddy
User avatar
User avatar
Patrick
Rantbuddy
Rantbuddy
Posts: 7475
Joined: May 3, 2006
Location: England

Post Post #1357 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:38 am

Post by Patrick »

Votecount

DrippingGoofball (3) -- Kublai Khan, Save the Dragons, CrashTextDummie
Glork (2) -- VitaminR, undo
CrashTextDummie (1) -- inHimshallibe
Albert B. Rampage (3) -- petroleumjelly, DrippingGoofball, mathcam
undo (7) -- MrBuddyLee, Glork, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum, Yosarian2, Porochaz, Untrod Tripod
Untrod Tripod (1) -- Albert B. Rampage
inHimshallibe (2) -- Green Crayons, Sotty7

Not voting: Bookitty
20 alive, 11 to lynch
Primpod 11:13 pm
chamber can you please come to ukmeet
i would love to finally touch your face
User avatar
Porochaz
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
User avatar
User avatar
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
Oh, Prozac
Posts: 9317
Joined: September 6, 2007

Post Post #1358 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:36 am

Post by Porochaz »

17.2 units of cider, sitting on a wall...
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
User avatar
Porochaz
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
User avatar
User avatar
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
Oh, Prozac
Posts: 9317
Joined: September 6, 2007

Post Post #1359 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:37 am

Post by Porochaz »

15.2 actually. Maths is hard.
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
User avatar
Save The Dragons
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

User avatar
User avatar
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

Protection unnecessary

Posts: 22991
Joined: April 26, 2004
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: WA, USA

Post Post #1360 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:54 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

I'm going to preface this with:

1) I remain unconvinced that the actions performed by DGB were town. As far as I'm concerned, the case has already been made, rebutted, and the verdict is in. I understand that this wagon is losing steam though so I'll be reassessing and seeing if there's anyone else I feel strongly about.

2) 7 votes in 21 hours is very fast for this town. I think Yos may be right, that this nagging suspicion on undo lay in the minds of several people, and thus the wagon occured, but why wait until MBL posted to vote? Anyone else could have made undo a viable option.

Also, let me know if I got it wrong, but here's who they were voting before they switched to undo.

MBL-voting no one.
Glork-voting ABR.
chamber-voting mathcam.
CES-voting mathcam.
Yos-voting CES.
Porochaz-voting DGB.
UT-voting DGB.

3) I'm starting to have doubts that MBL is town. I felt like his attack against me was driven with a lot of information taken out of context, but since I'm caught in the crossfire I'm more interested if other people see it the same way or if I'm just jumpy. I am mistrustful of his "hovering" around. Of the KK voters, I do think DGB is probably more likely to be scum, though, so I don't really have anything concrete.

I mention those three things because my look at undo is a bit affected by those pieces. Looking at undo's post has lead me to a conclusion that I think he's town, but those three things helped.

Anyway,
In post 1245, undo wrote: On to my analysis of the most LML-distanced players:
undo seems to be choosing "distanced" players as defined by players who had as little interaction with LML as possible. I don't know if I love this approach; in a game with 22 people, it's inevitable that people aren't going to form connections with everyone. However, I don't fault him for selecting a subset of players and trying to determine if any of them are scummy, since a few players began day 2 that way.

I would be suspicious if his argument was "this LML distanced ness is the only reason I find XXXXXX to be scummy." Looking at the names provided, however, he says the following in his post (my commentary in paranthesis):

chamber and CES buddy.
In post 1245, undo wrote: From the last days of D1 and on to D2, [CES] has been more consistent and helpful, though.
(btw, I'd love to see an example selected by undo of this.)

Inhim/zorblag slot is suspicious because of zorblag voting for porochaz to be the 2nd on a wagon instead of voting for GC. (I'm not sure how I feel about zorblag)

Inhim didn't do much at all and hasn't really been active. (fair enough, but inhim did finally give a reason for his action. still, i'd love to see someone like zorblag back in that spot).

He points out that Glork does seem to quickly change his mind about Bookitty (looking back, there's no post from PJ or Bookity between glork's statement that he's willing to vote either and then deciding to vote PJ, he was not voting for Bookitty at this time, his vote was on Yosarian.)

His first paragraph on DGB states that he finds a scumpairing unlikely.
His second says that she almost always writes "____ is town." (I disagree with his use of the words 'almost always,' but everything else he says about DGB I agree with. I find it hard to fault him for landing on that wagon for that reason, and thus from my point of view I don't think undo's landing on the biggest wagon was disingenuine. But I can't really fault Glork for that opinion, I don't think he's wrong to have it).

----

As for the rest of undo's play, at the begining I was a little surprised he was more interested in trying to get ABR to talk then to make any form of opinion on any wagon going on. It's the same thing that gave me pause when I saw his , posting just to post but not presenting information.

One thing that struck me D1 was his dealings with Yos. I didn't like Yos's attack, how it started with mentioning something about voting DGB by way of homage meant something. I thought his responses were solid.

I liked his point about the consistent appeal to emotion from bookitty's posts.

I like his responses to glork, kind of the same thing with Yos's attack. I'm not sold on the attack so I think the response is fine.

----

I think undo's town. I feel confident that DGB is scum.
User avatar
Save The Dragons
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

User avatar
User avatar
Save The Dragons
He/Him
Protection unnecessary

Protection unnecessary

Posts: 22991
Joined: April 26, 2004
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: WA, USA

Post Post #1361 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 9:26 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 1350, mathcam wrote: And...maybe? I think it's gatherable from my interactions with DGB today (and I would have thought relatively obvious at all).
STD wrote: How likely do you think a DGB-ABR pairing is?
Not.
The reasons I ask this is...
In post 1082, mathcam wrote:Seriously, DGB? Now you're taking a ridiculous stab at identifying a cop
and
outing said cop at the same time?
No vote/FOS...doesn't mean much on its own.
In post 1085, mathcam wrote:Here's what I'm saying appears to have been your thought process: You thought you found a cop with a guilty investigation, and instead of going back and trying to make an argument against that guilty person, you decide that the best plan of action would be to out your perceived cop. How does that even resemble a sensible plan of action?
This post implies you're viewing her from a town mindset, asking her about her plan of action.

implies that you dislike her meta, but it's an argument against that playstyle in general.
In post 1178, mathcam wrote:DGB preferring a no-lynch to lynching LML was completely nuts, regardless of her alignment.
Here you imply that her crazy behavior is not indicative of alignment.
In post 1180, mathcam wrote: On the other hand,
outing
the cop is publicly posting this suspicion. I find both of the steps of DGB's process in this instance to be pretty indefensible.
This is the first time you state that her action was suspicious. It is definately fair to say that just because you didn't say it didn't mean you weren't thinking it, but at the same time from another angle it seems possible that you started to express your aprehension for DGB when things looked their bleakest for her.

Your vote for ABR and this quote here:
In post 1229, mathcam wrote:Anyone have a quick reference to a game where DGB was lynched as town? I'd like to compare exit strategies.
Suggest that even though you found them both scummy. In a worldview where ABR is scum, if they're not partners, she's most likely town. Though it is fair to have doubt on DGB.
In post 1296, mathcam wrote:Still fine with either DGB or ABR lynch, still leaning ABR. That said, I have to admit a mercy kill for DGB has some merit, and it seems wasteful to have someone replace in, get caught up, only to be on the verge of being lynched with no plausible escape route.
This post does not imply you think she's scum.

It feels to me that you're either trying hard to paint her as town in your posts or that's something you already know.

Now I have to go back and look at your/MafiaSSK's posts more critically to see if I'm making sense or just reading too much into this.
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
User avatar
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
Slightly better than 50-50
Posts: 5219
Joined: March 2, 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Post Post #1362 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 9:55 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

@undo
: Glork slapped at you for not revisiting mathcam. He's wrong.. you did have a funny re-analysis of cam D1, and listed him your #2 suspect, possibly #1. Cam was not on the wagon that lynched scumLML--he was on its rival wagon. But you haven't touched cam D2. Considering that you hit cam for an unreasoned vote on the Bookitty wagon, and considering the Bookitty wagon was the alternative to a wagon on scumLML, why haven't you revisited mathcam earlier today instead of twaddling about with an abacus and allowing it to direct your focus (somewhat arbitrarily) away from mathcam?
In post 1245, undo wrote:The way he strongly defends LML, and the fact that LML stated Glork was a town read from early on, makes me think they are not scumpartners.
Have you balanced your current OMGUS suspicions of Glork against your earlier statements? You paid lip service to considering Glork's vote in your mental equations, but in a weird way:
undo wrote:Then Glork, who said he was not willing to lynch LML, immediately votes LML after the ‘bus’ slip, but it’s difficult to figure his alignment based on this move only.
So Glork was the player who made it 8-8 Bookitty vs. LML. He also drew attention to the "bus" statement instead of waiting for someone else to. It appears that LML drew up that post when it was either 8-6 or 8-7 Bookitty. Do you really think he planted "bus" for Glork to jump on and look like a hero when
LML wasn't even leading in votes and no-lynch looked like a distinct possibility
? Or do you think it's more likely that LML slipped and Glork spotted it and decided, "meh, maybe it's a slip and maybe I was wrong about him?"
undo wrote:Yes, that was my intent. But hey, you are voting me because you considered I was the one of the players who most ignored LML and the LML wagon Day 1, right? I take it, then, that you too are trying to find scum among the people who interacted least with LML. Therefore I’m sure you understand my intent perfectly.
Not really.. as I've mentioned before, I think LML is more likely than average to comment on a scumpartner. In the reverse, I imagine his scumpartners tried to talk about him when he wasn't in trouble and avoid saying too much damaging when he was in trouble. Taking all that together, you'd end up with a pretty average "distancing" number for his scumpartners by your count.

I do have to LOL at the fact that you fall into your own "prime suspect list" based on your own distancing analysis.
dialing in mildly protown reads since 2006
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
User avatar
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
Slightly better than 50-50
Posts: 5219
Joined: March 2, 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Post Post #1363 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 10:06 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Also, if Bookitty comes up town, it'd be really hard to make the case that Glork was scum protecting her all day. You'd have to add that protection of a townie up against a scum wagon to his "spot" of the "bus" and his willingness to post and vote in a possible no-lynch situation to sink his scumpartner. Plus your(undo's) statements that LML's interactions with Glork make them look like unlikely scumpartners.

All that being said, a Glork vote is a really ill-considered/scummy vote right now, imo.
dialing in mildly protown reads since 2006
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
User avatar
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
Slightly better than 50-50
Posts: 5219
Joined: March 2, 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Post Post #1364 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 10:21 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Hat trick!

I'll actually rephrase something from above. Your twaddling of the abacus today allowed you to direct your focus
entirely arbitrarily
from mathcam, your #1/#2 D1 suspect.

According to your "system",
cam was the #8 least-LML-interacting player yesterday
. But instead of including him in your analysis of players who interacted least with LML,
you made an arbitrary divide at #5
and
only analyzed the top five
. That allowed you to vote DGB and
say nothing whatsoever about mathcam
. Fascinating. And then you
used it as an excuse
for why you haven't analyzed mathcam yet:
undo wrote:I put my D1 suspicions on hold because of the huge piece of information that was LML's flip.
Hard to imagine that a town player would do that LML interaction analysis, see that his top suspect from D1 was in the top third of suspects based on interaction analysis, and then choose to divide those "interaction groups" in a way that allows them to NOT further investigate their top suspect.
dialing in mildly protown reads since 2006
User avatar
undo
undo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
undo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1141
Joined: March 27, 2007

Post Post #1365 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 11:37 am

Post by undo »

MrBuddyLee, is the day over yet? I was going to look into mathcam before you came with your vote on me and started this wagon. That kind of rearranged my priorities, go figure.
MBL wrote:Or do you think it's more likely that LML slipped and Glork spotted it and decided, "meh, maybe it's a slip and maybe I was wrong about him?"
Close.

I was thinking more along the lines of "Man, LML messed up, there's no way he can get away with this one. Better vote him already and be done with it".
MBL wrote:I do have to LOL at the fact that you fall into your own "prime suspect list" based on your own distancing analysis.
I see you didn't understand my post at all. It was not a prime suspect list, it was a way for me to reduce the scope of analysis to a group where I considered there was a high probability of finding scum.
MBL wrote:Also, if Bookitty comes up town, it'd be really hard to make the case that Glork was scum protecting her all day.
It's not impossible, but why are you even bringing this up? What if she comes up scum? And if I get lynched/killed, flipping town, how hard is it going to be for you to save face? How does this kind of speculation help town?
MBL wrote:All that being said, a Glork vote is a really ill-considered/scummy vote right now, imo.
I can see how my vote can look like mere OMGUS to you, and I don't deny it may be somewhat biased. But not you nor anyone can seriously say that Glork hasn't made a consciously dishonest case against me. No pro-town player would ever do that. It's reason enough for me to vote him.

Apart from that, I was just ISOing him and I've noticed some interesting stuff. I will put my notes together and post about it tomorrow.
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
User avatar
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
Slightly better than 50-50
Posts: 5219
Joined: March 2, 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Post Post #1366 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 1:57 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

In post 1365, undo wrote:I see you didn't understand my post at all. It was not a prime suspect list, it was a way for me to reduce the scope of analysis to a group where I considered there was a high probability of finding scum.
undo wrote:I was going to look into mathcam before you came with your vote on me and started this wagon.
Nah, I understood your post just fine. And you're avoiding the part where I pointed out that you "reduced the scope of analysis" just enough to leave mathcam out--you had a perfect opportunity to analyze him and you dodged it by drawing an imaginary line at 5 instead of 8. You have to understand how scummy that looks, considering you voted Bookitty day one while making handwavey motions about mathcam being scum:
undo wrote:I thought whether I should keep my vote on mathcam or switch it to Bookitty. I still hold mathcam as a top suspect, because MafiaSSK theories+mathcam’s expressed reluctance to assuming his stances is a killer combo. But Bookitty has the most momentum going on, so VOTE: Bookitty. If a matcham wagon forms during the following days, though, I’m there. (Also, if someone was going to ask, I don’t think the fact that he is voting for Bookitty changes anything)
undo wrote:It's not impossible, but why are you even bringing this up? What if she comes up scum?
Then I look scummier, big whoop. The point I'm trying to make is that at some point, if you think there's a decent chance Bookitty's town, then Glork might not be the best percentage play on Day 2.


@VitR
, you know LML decently well. Do you think he'd agree to give up and post a fake "bus" post for a teammate to catch, a few hours before deadline, with him not even in the vote lead (6-8), with what appears to be a decent shot at no-lynch?
dialing in mildly protown reads since 2006
User avatar
chamber
chamber
Cases are scummy
User avatar
User avatar
chamber
Cases are scummy
Cases are scummy
Posts: 10703
Joined: November 20, 2005

Post Post #1367 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 2:05 pm

Post by chamber »

I know its the 2007 style, but you guys know that quote striping is extremely hard to read right?
Taking a break from the site.
User avatar
Porochaz
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
User avatar
User avatar
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
Oh, Prozac
Posts: 9317
Joined: September 6, 2007

Post Post #1368 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 4:36 pm

Post by Porochaz »

I had a point but its 4.30am and as you can imagine, Im quite drunk (although soberer than I thought I would be) so I will need to get sober Prozac to mention it tomorrow.

This useful post has come from drunkprozacinc.
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
User avatar
mathcam
mathcam
Captain Observant
User avatar
User avatar
mathcam
Captain Observant
Captain Observant
Posts: 6116
Joined: November 22, 2002

Post Post #1369 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 4:49 pm

Post by mathcam »

Chamber: What's the preferred method these days? I don't actually find it that bad.

StD: An excellent series of observations. I think this is highly reflective of my own opinions on DGB, which have oscillated at least as much in my head as they have in my public posts. There have been times where I've thought she was town making really really bad decisions, and times where I've felt less charitable. My current equilibrium seems to be that if I can't form a read on her based on her posting style (and I can't), I have to evaluate her scumminess directly based on those actions. Since I deem many of them to be anti-town, she goes near the top of my lynch list.

undo: Eh, it was a pretty mild FOS. I indeed felt you were twisting my words, but in the grand scheme of things, that's a pretty minor offense.

GC: I think my two next scum would be UntroTripod (see post 1181, and also his recent crazy-defensiveness on the previous page) and porochaz (though no good arguments come to mind as to why).

Sotty: Agreed, "interesting" was noncommittal. UT made a point about not being likely to vote you (if not undo), and that prompted me to look quickly through his posts about you. I found it interesting, but no, probably not scummy. That said, his follow up in which he took that as an attack I do very much find scummy.
User avatar
Sotty7
Sotty7
That Damn Good
User avatar
User avatar
Sotty7
That Damn Good
That Damn Good
Posts: 6744
Joined: October 7, 2005
Location: Minnesota

Post Post #1370 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 5:28 pm

Post by Sotty7 »

In post 1360, Save The Dragons wrote:1) I remain unconvinced that the actions performed by DGB were town. As far as I'm concerned, the case has already been made, rebutted, and the verdict is in. I understand that this wagon is losing steam though so I'll be reassessing and seeing if there's anyone else I feel strongly about.
DGB is still one of my top suspects and I would happily lynch her today. Moved my vote simply because inhim is another big suspect of mine I very much want to see him pressured to generate content from his posting rather than only having the replacements to look at.
In post 1360, Save The Dragons wrote:3) I'm starting to have doubts that MBL is town. I felt like his attack against me was driven with a lot of information taken out of context, but since I'm caught in the crossfire I'm more interested if other people see it the same way or if I'm just jumpy. I am mistrustful of his "hovering" around. Of the KK voters, I do think DGB is probably more likely to be scum, though, so I don't really have anything concrete.
I was having similar feelings when it comes to his hovering around, but when I actually directly asked him to explain himself, he did and in great detail. That did a lot to make me feel better about him and at least have him leaning a little town even if I disagree with his Undo push. MBL has attacks on you peppered though his ISO which ones in particular don't you like? I'm thinking maybe the more recent "distancing" argument but guide me in the general direction.

I've pretty much spent a lot of the last week reading up on the game when I can here. I have a big chunk of day one done with which has left me with a lot more town reads than I had initially. Glork for example has moved in slight town territory just because when I read his posts they just don't strike me as having the undertone of trying to save a buddy when it comes to LML. It just seems like he read LML as town and rolled with it from there. I found myself in a somewhat similar position in that I was willing to write LML's scumminess off as "Play style differences" I would like him to talk about his UT read today (or at least point to the post where he already has) as Glork on Day one seemed to think if LML was scum so was UT. I'm still working on this read but as of right now, I'm finding him pretty genuine.

CTD is a scum read of mine mostly because I can't get past the fact that one of Yos' and GC biggest points on LML was the way he changed his Tigris vote meaning. GC details it best here when he talks about post and pre weekend LML. He tries to lessen the meaning of his vote by referring to it as a dice roll, and while true he does later back up his vote with strong language, "I like my vote where it is" "I can't find two people scummy" Etc.

CTD caught UT in the first Oldy game with a similar tell. UT threw a bandwagoning vote on CTD which he later claimed was jokey when it really wasn't and as CTD pushes him on the matter he seems to crumple trying to assign meaning to it after the fact. He didn't get a lynch right away as UT's slot lived till day six.

I asked CTD about this during the first day.

Spoiler:
In post 577, Sotty7 wrote:
CTD
- What do you think of Yos post 568?
In post 748, CrashTextDummie wrote:
In post 577, Sotty7 wrote:CTD - What do you think of Yos post 568?
I think that midway through the post, he finally realized Tigris' name isn't Tigras! first On a more serious note, I think it's a solid piece of scum hunting on Yos' part and I'm beginning to lean town on him. Don't see it as a damning argument against LML though, I still haven't fully wrapped my head around his play.
In post 579, Yosarian2 wrote:Seriously, I wouldn't care if he random vote Tigris, and I wouldn't care if he voted Tigris because he thought Tigris was scummy. I also wouldn't care if he changed his mind. The way he's trying to have it both ways, though, feels scummy; it feels like he knew his Tigris vote was bad and was trying to distance himself from it, or else like he's trying to do a lot of tapdancing to make it look like his scumhunting was more honest then it actually was.
Oh I see what you're getting at now, Sotty. It's a remarkably similar argument to the one I made against MafiaSSK. I disagree with Yos' conclusions here mainly because I think the quote from LML's #302 is a sufficiently reasonable explanation for what was going on. I'd be interested in hearing Yos' thoughts on MafiaSSK in light of this post though.
In post 751, Sotty7 wrote:
In post 748, CrashTextDummie wrote:Oh I see what you're getting at now, Sotty. It's a remarkably similar argument to the one I made against MafiaSSK. I disagree with Yos' conclusions here mainly because I think the quote from LML's #302 is a sufficiently reasonable explanation for what was going on. I'd be interested in hearing Yos' thoughts on MafiaSSK in light of this post though.
So UT didn't provide an explanation as much as LML did and that's the difference?
In post 790, CrashTextDummie wrote:
In post 751, Sotty7 wrote:So UT didn't provide an explanation as much as LML did and that's the difference?
More or less. LML put his actions in a context that I can see as plausible coming from town whereas MafiaSSK kept trying to sell his Tigris suspicion as more legitimate than it was.


It could be that I wasn't being clear enough but he kept turning it round to his push on Mafia SSK when I was more thinking along the lines of why he hadn't joined in the voices pushing LML for this sin. CTD does say that Post 303 by LML was a reasonable explanation for what he was thinking. I want to know what was the difference between LML's responses compared to both SSK in this game and UT the apparent caught scum in the Oldy game. As of right now I am not seeing the distinction and combine it with CTD not really committing to a hard read of LML day one either way, I'm finding him very suspicious.
User avatar
Kublai Khan
Kublai Khan
Khan Man
User avatar
User avatar
Kublai Khan
Khan Man
Khan Man
Posts: 5278
Joined: August 5, 2008
Location: Sarasota, FL

Post Post #1371 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 6:25 pm

Post by Kublai Khan »

In post 1303, MrBuddyLee wrote:PJ made a vote-switch late yesterday that made an LML lynch more of a possibility. His vote simultaneously took the race from like Bookitty 9, LML 3, PJ 3 to 9-4-3. So in addition to the vote being critical to the building of the LML-wagon, it also removed pressure from the PJ-wagon. I've felt that LML bused a scumpartner, and PJ is one of the options in that direction. I am conflicted on PJ, and don't feel today is necessarily the time to focus on him. When people are lynching scum, you generally keep them around.
Is that it? It kinda sounds like you're taking the towniest of the people on the LoudmouthLee wagon and choosing to view their actions through a WIFOMy "must be bussing" filter.

What gives you such a strong feeling that LoudmouthLee bussed a scumpartner?
In post 1303, MrBuddyLee wrote:
KK wrote:
MBL wrote:Do you think scum wanted LML lynched, Bookitty lynched, or a no-lynch?
At what point in time are you asking? Scum-wants changed as the situation grew dire for them.
My question was in response to this comment of yours:
KK wrote:I don't think the attempt was to lynch. I think it was an attempt to create another option to further divide/demoralize the town and create possibility of no lynch.
So basically, I'm asking: do you really feel all three remaining players (MBL, Glork, DGB) from the KK-wagon were voting you to demoralize the town? I can understand "divide"--yes, offering you as an alternative was an invitation to step off other wagons. Of the three of us, only DGB showed a willingness to no-lynch.

I'll break my question down:
1) Do you really think my voting you yesterday and keeping that vote there until deadline-day was designed to result in a no-lynch?
2) Do you think Glork's switch to you 16 hours before deadline was designed to result in no-lynch?
3) Do you believe DGB found both LML and Bookitty too townish to vote for yesterday, or is that implausible?
4) Are you pretty sure that Bookitty is scum? Because if she's town, wouldn't it make more sense for one or more of scum-Glork, scum-DGB and scum-MBL to push for her lynch at 9-3 or 9-5 Bookitty instead of no-lynching or risking an LML lynch?
1. It's a possibility.
2. It's a possibility.
3. It wasn't implausible. When DrippingGoofball said a no lynch was preferred, I tried to ascertain how LoudmouthLee was so town in her view. She didn't answer until Day 2 started, so that answer is weak.
4. There is risk to pushing a competing wagon close to deadline. Maybe they hadn't laid down the proper groundwork for a BooKitty push. But.... It's really, really easy to push a competing wagon on me because I had mostly prod-dodged since replacing in. So it's super easy to shoot a vote on me with a rallying cry of "hey this guy didn't do much and jumped on a wagon towards the end of the day with no case" and maybe it catches on.

Examining those that voted me, only Glork fits that profile. You and DrippingGoofball both expressed early suspicion of the BooKitty slot while Glork declared it super-town. Glork voted me with the reason of "this guy didn't post enough, therefore scum". Plus Glork offered to hammer anyone else immediately after voting LML.

Shit.. Glork is fucking scum.

vote: Glork


--
I saw the undo wagon build. It's not a bad pressure wagon but it's a terrible lynch wagon.
Occasionally intellectually honest

Black Lives Matter
Get vaccinated
User avatar
Glork
Glork
Burdened by Proficiency
User avatar
User avatar
Glork
Burdened by Proficiency
Burdened by Proficiency
Posts: 14106
Joined: July 13, 2005
Location: Dance into the fire

Post Post #1372 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:05 pm

Post by Glork »

Except KK I made it very clear that I wanted you to post your contributions.
LESS THAN TWELVE HOURS AFTER I PRESSURE VOTED YOU, I MOVED ONTO LML. AND IT WAS THE VERY FIRST THING I DID AFTER YOU FULFILLED MY REQUEST FOR CONTENT.


Like holy shit. Context.
Green Shirt Thursdays


Get to know a Glork!
User avatar
Glork
Glork
Burdened by Proficiency
User avatar
User avatar
Glork
Burdened by Proficiency
Burdened by Proficiency
Posts: 14106
Joined: July 13, 2005
Location: Dance into the fire

Post Post #1373 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:12 pm

Post by Glork »

Also there was no "competing wagon" in you to push. I was the SECOND VOTE and made it very clear that I wanted you to contribute something that wasn't just a one-loner throwaway post about being called "she."

You say it's "really easy to push a competing wagon" on you but there was ONE FUCKING VOTE on you when I pressured you for content. Your argument is made up. The premise on which you suspect me (jumping a competing wagon) doesn't exist.
Green Shirt Thursdays


Get to know a Glork!
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
User avatar
User avatar
MrBuddyLee
Slightly better than 50-50
Slightly better than 50-50
Posts: 5219
Joined: March 2, 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ

Post Post #1374 (ISO) » Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:20 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

@KK
, what do you think of Glork's vote for LML that made it 8-8? Is that really the kind of play scum makes on a partner a few hours before deadline, when no-lynch is a more likely possibility? Please walk me through how that makes sense to you.

Glork also pestered you for a vote 16 hours before deadline, knowing full well that you suspected LML from an earlier post. Why the fuck would he do that as scum instead of shutting up and hoping for a nolynch?

Also, you think Bookitty is very town.. so from that perspective, do you REALLY think Glork's protection of her all day combined with the fact that the alternative wagon was scum combined with the fact that he was the vote that tied it up between Boo and LML, etc etc points to Glork as likely scum?

I mean, it's possible, but it really stretches likelihood.
dialing in mildly protown reads since 2006

Return to “Completed Large Normal Games”