Mini 1582: Formerfish's First Foray (Game Over)

[Boonskiies]

About to be wagon'd so you falsely claim a PR? Scum.

[OkaPoka]

How'd you know he falsely claims?

[Formerfish]

Vote Count 1.6

bjc

- Shinobi, I Love Fairies, Boonskiies (L-4)
OkaPoka- massive, Grib (L-5)
I Love Fairies- bjc, theelkspeaks (L-5)
theelksspeaks- KittyMo, Grib (L-5)
KittyMo- Octopus, OkaPoka (L-5)

Not Voting: Drew-Sta

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes for a lynch
(expired on 2014-07-03 00:22:00)

[OkaPoka]

BJC, you were at L-5...

You weren't about to be wagoned, you were ways away.

[I Love Fairies]

How'd you know he falsely claims?

Because a real TPR wouldn't claim unless they were actually about to be lynched. Even when being wagoned, a TPR is not justified in RCing until they're at L-1 (L-2 if it's suspected we have someone notorious for quickhammering).

There's basically one consideration that I can think of that would be considered townish if someone RCed early, but given how unlikely I feel that situation is I don't think this is the case.

Boy, I sure do wish I could vote bjc again!

[Boonskiies]

Damnit I was doing so well too!

I apologize! I was actually trying not to do that! Haha.

It's ok, I was bathing the baby and electronics don't mix with water.

______________________

So, everyone. There was absolutely no reason to claim a PR if he was town, and if he was playing as a town member, I believe he would have realized that. I believe we should wrap up day 1 with this.

[Boonskiies]

Plus, the lurking play style fits better as scum anyhow.

[OkaPoka]

I want to know how he was so confident in false claiming. I know it might be scummy to quick claim, but Boon doesn't mention it AT ALL.

I think Bjc, and Boon are scum.


Bjc is definitely scummier, but Boon is still suspicious.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BJC

[Drew-Sta]

Prod dodge. Writing something now.

[Boonskiies]

I want to know how he was so confident in false claiming. I know it might be scummy to quick claim, but Boon doesn't mention it AT ALL.

I don't mention his quick claim? I completely made my assumption due to him claiming, no matter if it was near his lynch or not. It made no sense to to claim where he is unless he's scum. I may not have referred directly to the 'quick claim', but it's what was implied.

[massive]

Why is it likely that boon is scum?

Sure. To me there's two things:

1. Avoids hammering or pressuring ILF despite claiming ILF and Shinobi are scumbuddies. Persists on voting Shinobi despite the biggest reason being "he jumped to ILF's defense" -- while Boon isn't quite so heavy-handed as he acccuses Shinobi of being, isn't this sort of the same thing he's doing, by trying to distract attention away from ILF and onto another candidate? Even after finally going from "ILF is highly likely scum" in #81 to "not really sure [about ILF]" in #83, he still remains steadfast about trying to pressure Shinobi, while undermining his own argument (which is all predicated on ILF being scum in the first place!) (Note that he goes back to the scumbuddy argument in #98.)

There's two parts to this. One, if he's actually suspicious of ILF, and thinks Shinobi is her scumbuddy, why not keep the pressure up on ILF? She's obviously going to crack like a walrus if she's scum, and probably out her whole gang. Why switch to Shinobi there? Especially while promising to hammer ILF if necessary?

And also, if you want to move pressure off of ILF and onto someone else, it's really easy here to make a better argument : That of Shinobi being scum who wants to look good by protecting a townie. Sticking to the scumbuddy theory is weird exactly BECAUSE he ends up destroying it himself, and is forced to "let up" on Shinobi when he finally sees it's getting him nowhere.

2. The "too townie" read on Grib. I may be biased because to me it's obvious that Grib is town. But even if I was unsure, even if I was only 80% sure Grib was town, under no circumstance would I worry that my read was TOO townie. It reads as though Boon is willing to entertain some possibility that Grib is scum, if he hears other people are willing to follow that path. He does jump very quickly to the Oka wagon, but still doesn't have strong feelings of scumminess towards him.

And again, that's more because I just can't see any way Grib isn't town. Boon is less culpable of trying to figure out how Grib's role works, Oka and shiny are the biggest ones there, however.

So,

Shinobi

, what made you single out Boon over any of the other people we've been discussing?

----

aaaaaaand look what happens while I'm posting a text wall. The bjc wagon is a little ridiculous, don't you think? Say what you want about him being a horrible player (and I will), him screwing up and "claiming" isn't anything at all (as he's already shown he can't be trusted to act in the town's interest no matter which side he's on), and trying to get a wagon going on him because of it is ludicrous. ESPECIALLY OkaPoka, who "wants to know how he was so confident in false claiming" --

there's absolutely nothing that so far indicates he IS false-claiming, and even if you want someone to step up and counterclaim him, WHAT EXACTLY WOULD THEY COUNTERCLAIM?

-- and I especially love the fact that not a mere six posts prior to that, he was hoping he could railroad Boon for the "how do you know he's false claiming?"

Man I have never been so happy for my vote in a looooong time.

[massive]

DON'T CLAIM PR.

PR attracts scum to target you, unless that is what you want.

THIS is the truest thing Oka has said in this game. Hrm, wonder who's targeting the claimed PR? Ha.

[shinyskarmory]

Sorry for my low level of activity, I've been pretty busy in real life and haven't had as much time as I would have liked to play.

Regarding Grib and responses to my post about how to read his doublevote, I admit it's all meta. However, meta is a good way to get information to act on, especially on Day 1 when we have nothing else to go on other then people's posts. I'm pretty convinced that he is town now, though that opinion can always be reversed by additional information.

After looking at BJC's posts, I think he's done a very good job at not saying anything at all. His posts are one-liners and generally just taking snarky cracks at people who attacked him. I think he's an okay lynch today, although I'm going to leave him unvoted for now to prevent mafia from jumping in and hammering.

My favored lynches at the moment are:

BJC (He seems like a fairly good choice for reasons stated above and by others)
Shinobi (I'm REALLY not a fan of "I'm pretty content to be in the shadows" in his 7th post)

We could also use today's lynch to test Grib's doublevote. With his unique type of doublevote, a double hammer is theoretically possible as outlined by the wiki here: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Doublevoter. We can push our two most favored votes to L-1, and have Grib hammer them both. If he refuses, we can lynch one of the two without his help, then lynch him the next day if they come up scum. This would allow us to both confirm Grib's role as well as giving us twice as many chances of hitting scum. However, we also run the risk of losing two villagers right off the bat before night 1 even begins.

I know it's a risky plan, but I believe that it's an idea worth considering. Tell me what you think-I like this option, but I'm not committed to it and I'm willing to go for a regular lynch as well.

[OkaPoka]

I like this idea.

But I want BJC and Boon to be lynched.

Grib won't refuse. Refusing is scummy.

[theelkspeaks]

Some more questions I didn't have time to post earlier.

@elk:

I'd like an answer to this also.

Snip->

Hey elk, would you say it's OMGUS if you vote for someone voting you, 100% all the time, regardless of context?

@ILF:

->

I didn't say I thought Kitty to be mafia necessarily, just that I find her slightly more likely to be mafia than anyone else in the thread.

Why?

@shiny:

Can you expand on your reasoning in post 94 as to how the double vote count is handled is indicative of Grib's alignment?

And... for some reason the emphasis I added to Kitty's post earlier went in the wrong place, it should have been on the first sentence.

I would say that it's OMGUS voting to always vote someone who is voting you, regardless of the context in which they were voting you. On the flipside, it is not always OMGUS to vote a person who is voting you if, for example, you think their reasons for voting you are scummy, but you need to be careful. Not sure which you were asking, your wording was ambiguous. In this particular case, I found ILF's vote's reasoning lacking, and felt that ILF was committing an OMGUS vote.

As for my late entry with my first post, I rely on email notifications of site PMs, and unfortunately the one for my role PM for this game got nabbed by my spam filter, so I missed my role PM until the Day had started by a little.

I think the mechanics of the doublevoting role are of interest to legitimate townies, because I could also believe that a scum would fake an unconfirmable/unconfirmed doublevoting role to get conftown status, to comment on the discussion in #121

[Shinobi]

UNVOTE: bjc

Can we not be bandwagoning the PR claims on day 1? I really don't care if he's scum or not at this point since he basically resolves himself in time.

Also, massive, I focused on boon because you focused on boon. You thought he was scummier but you didn't say why, so I don't know what happened to warrant that.

[bjc]

So of those that jumped on me after the claim, who is most likely to be scum: boon or shiny? I know shiny didn't officially jump on, but it's there.

[Grib]

Oh, come on. bjc is the laziest wagon I've ever seen.

I thought I was about to be wagoned.

I am at least 95% sure this is sarcasm. Also why is everyone assuming it's a fake PR claim? I just. Don't care for wine this early.

DON'T CLAIM PR.

PR attracts scum to target you, unless that is what you want.

I'm technically a PR. Scum hasn't done shit to me yet. But I'm waiting.

How'd you know he falsely claims?

Because a real TPR wouldn't claim unless they were actually about to be lynched. Even when being wagoned, a TPR is not justified in RCing until they're at L-1 (L-2 if it's suspected we have someone notorious for quickhammering).

There's basically one consideration that I can think of that would be considered townish if someone RCed early, but given how unlikely I feel that situation is I don't think this is the case.

Boy, I sure do wish I could vote bjc again!

Why are you answering a question that wasn't directed at you?

I want to know how he was so confident in false claiming. I know it might be scummy to quick claim, but Boon doesn't mention it AT ALL.

I think Bjc, and Boon are scum.


Bjc is definitely scummier, but Boon is still suspicious.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BJC

Oh, Christ, what even. Why are you suddenly so sure it's a false claim? Also you didn't ask ILF this question, and the fact that you're taking her answer and running with it is just. No.

Vote: OkaPoka

Second Vote: OkaPoka

Kill Oka with fire.

We could also use today's lynch to test Grib's doublevote. With his unique type of doublevote, a double hammer is theoretically possible as outlined by the wiki here: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Doublevoter. We can push our two most favored votes to L-1, and have Grib hammer them both. If he refuses, we can lynch one of the two without his help, then lynch him the next day if they come up scum. This would allow us to both confirm Grib's role as well as giving us twice as many chances of hitting scum. However, we also run the risk of losing two villagers right off the bat before night 1 even begins.

Wow. That's neat.

@Mod: What say you about this? Allowed?

A lynch occurs when a player has reached 7 votes.

So of those that jumped on me after the claim, who is most likely to be scum: boon or shiny? I know shiny didn't officially jump on, but it's there.

I'm going to be so disappointed if scum actually jumped.

[KittyMo]

uh so there's 12 players and 13 votes counting grib's 2 which is not enough to doublehammer (can't have 2 people with 7 votes on them simultaneously.) there has to be an odd number of people alive for that to work. I actually already got mod confirmation that doublehammering is possible though a couple of days ago; just wasn't relevant to bring up. perhaps that's part of why this is 12p and not 13p

[Grib]

I like this idea.

But I want BJC and Boon to be lynched.

Grib won't refuse. Refusing is scummy.

I'll vote for whoever the fuck I want. Scumpaint me harder.

[Grib]

uh so there's 12 players and 13 votes counting grib's 2 which is not enough to doublehammer (can't have 2 people with 7 votes on them simultaneously.) there has to be an odd number of people alive for that to work. I actually already got mod confirmation that doublehammering is possible though a couple of days ago; just wasn't relevant to bring up. perhaps that's part of why this is 12p and not 13p

Oh well. Good to know.

[Octopus]

@Kitty:

Thanks for clarifying those points for me. I'm finding it difficult to understand you sometimes, it may be the way you write things, or it may just be me.

@ILF:

Snip->

Asking "why" is why people had so much suspicion on me in the first place. I keep referring back to the post where I actually voted. That was my reasoning for thinking Kitty to be slightly more scummy than other people (and slightly more scummy = more likely to be mafia, in my eyes). However, I was incorrect with my analysis of her possible motivations and (unless she's lying) I'm in full agreeance that her explained reasoning is indeed townish.

Snip->

What I'm trying to understand here is what Drew-Sta pointed out, although really badly. If it's scummy to jump on a random band wagon then logically Boon was more scummy than Kitty. Boon 'randomly' placed Kitty on 3 votes (L-4), whereas Kitty moved you up to 2 votes (L-5, hardly a wagon). With your stated reason for voting why did you therefore find Kitty scummier than Boon? And didn't Grib do exactly the same as Kitty?

Not impressed with bjc's anti-town "acting-too-scummy-to-be-scum" shite. Seen it before, it was shite then, it's shite now.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Boonskiies

Inconsistent, almost heroic self contradiction, vote jumping to any wagon that looks even remotely like its going to go the distance.

[Octopus]

Snip->

This would allow us to both confirm Grib's role as well as giving us twice as many chances of hitting scum. However, we also run the risk of losing two villagers right off the bat before night 1 even begins.

This makes me suspicious. Grib's role is not in any doubt, have you looked at a votecount post?

[Drew-Sta]

Ok, this took longer than I thought to get to my computer and post. My little girl had a large day so needed a bit more TLC; I apologise.

Spoiler: My reasoning for Oka vote

My read since I last posted is, well... Oka just sticks out like a sore thumb. Seriously, I'm flabbergasted. Post 93 and post 104 are ludicrous. Either he is going for a reaction (possible), he is paranoid delusional (probable) or he is mafia (also probable). Boon joins in with post 105 then does a complete turn around in 111 right after Grib posts. These two are not good for town and their general thread management, the distancing they are doing then bouncing off each other is... well its not pro-town, I believe.

The only thing that made me doubt Oka as mafia is 149, where he makes a fairly panicked post (rightly) for bjr to not claim PR. But then he jumps right on bjc in 157 was the clincher. Oka, to me, reads mafia. His behaviour is simply not consistent or logical or town-positive. Grib's comment in 167 sums it up for me and his 'kill it with fire' is something I chuckled at...

VOTE: Oka

A few other things.

Spoiler:

KittMo

- In 96, there's a lot to think about in that. Your post reads town, and I'm content with your answer right now, but want to go back and iso the both of you and reread.

Boon

- re 98, her behaviour is still very sus. I am leaning more newb than anything, but want to go back and review her previous games. That will help me get more of an understanding of whether my suspicions are founded.

Grib

- re 110 and this quote:

I kept pointing out things you apparently missed. Stop missing things, is what I meant. In a gentle way.

It's probably nothing. But it'll be there if it becomes relevant later in the game.

Agreed, I do keep missing things and it is poor form. I'd like to justify it by saying I have to phone surf a lot due to my work, so skim too quickly, but this isn't an acceptable answer.

ILF

- This post 138 just... it doesn't read right. You just keep doing things that make me sit back and think maybe I don't have conf bias. Why bjc? What is it about him that has got you?

bjc

- Stupid, stupid, stupid is all I can say. This post 144 is horrible. What is interesting is who jumped

on

it though.

massive

- I got a strong townread on him so far. Post 160 is the reason.

My reads so far (in no particular order and a TL;DR summary):

Oka - strong mafia
bjc - dumbass, null
Grib - clever and leaning on town. Using the DV the way he is reads like town. If he's mafia, then he's got balls the size of church bells.
massive - strong town
theelkspeaks - leaning mafia
ILoveFairies - null and could lean either way depending on how I read her posts. Something is not right with what she keeps posting...
Shinobi - hardass, null
shinyskarmory - null
Octopus - liking his posts so far, leaning town
KittyMo - null to very slight mafia; she seems... a little too diplomatic.
Boonskiies - unusual, leaning mafia. He and Oka's interaction is... well, they remind me a bit of Statler and Waldorf.

[Drew-Sta]

What I'm trying to understand here is what Drew-Sta pointed out, although really badly. If it's scummy to jump on a random band wagon then logically Boon was more scummy than Kitty. Boon 'randomly' placed Kitty on 3 votes (L-4), whereas Kitty moved you up to 2 votes (L-5, hardly a wagon). With your stated reason for voting why did you therefore find Kitty scummier than Boon? And didn't Grib do exactly the same as Kitty?

Yep, agree. Well said, sums up what I was thinking that I couldn't articulate.