Mini 1582: Formerfish's First Foray (Game Over)


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Post Post #325 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:07 pm

Post by Grib »

@massive

Oh, I don't know about that. I'd say Hiding with possible scum to out them is
definitely
worth trading your life for. Hiding with a townread is useless, unless they turn out to be scum.

I highly doubt Shinobi chose to Hide with shinyskarmory, which means Shinobi Hid with scum. Based on Shinobi's post, the FoS falls heavily on you.
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Post Post #326 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:09 pm

Post by Formerfish »

Vote Count 2.5


Fat_Tony- bjc
Boonskiies- Grib, Fat_Tony, Octopus (L-2)
theelkspeaks- Drew-Sta
massive- Tattletale, Boonskiies, Grib (L-2)

Not Voting: massive, theelkspeaks

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch
(expired on 2014-07-11 23:35:00)
Last edited by Formerfish on Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #327 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:14 pm

Post by Tattletale »

My experience with Shinobi's personality is coloring my read here: I think it is much more likely he would target massive after posts like . I would target scum.

massive, if you chose not to bring it into the discussion, despite allegedly believing it might implicate me (one of your suspects), then I think a more likely hypothesis is that you felt it would be dangerous to discuss.
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Post Post #328 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:16 pm

Post by Tattletale »

In post 121, massive wrote:If you're town, the mechanics of Grib's role DON'T MATTER. If you're scum, you need to know how high in the nightkill pecking order he needs to be.

That, to me, makes the scum Oka / shiny / Boon. My problem now is that I start to see connections between them (see shiny's Post #63 where Grib's voting pattern is suspicious but Boon's first-post bandwagoning "might be noob town", Boon voting for Oka but later saying it's "not a strong [feeling of scumminess]") -- but that's immaterial.

When you guys decide you want to run one of them up, I'm witcha.
In this post you built up a theory in which OkaPoka, shinyskarmory and Boonskies were all suspect for asking about the mechanics of Grib's role.

You used this as a part of your argument to vote OkaPoka, who flipped Vanilla Town. shinyskarmory was killed in the night and also flipped Vanilla Town, refuting your theory.

You have nevertheless continued working through those three names, albeit coming up with new reasons to do so. This implies to me that the targets of your "scumhunting" were premeditated on day 1.

What makes this even more exciting is that you entirely leave out Octopus, who asked Grib about his role only a few posts above your own.
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Post Post #329 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:18 pm

Post by Tattletale »

In post 323, bjc wrote:
In post 317, Tattletale wrote:
In post 311, bjc wrote:Okay. I'm a VT.

I was honestly hoping to get NK'd last night but I guess they didn't believe my hint, haha.
Would you say your panic about being the focus of a wagon was genuine? In context, your soft-claim looks like a knee-jerk reaction to coming under the smallest amount of pressure.
No because I'm not an idiot.
Meaning what?

I'd like to do a quick sanity check. Do you think Boonskies is scum?
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Post Post #330 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:22 pm

Post by bjc »

Under the assumption that both Boon and massive can coexist as scum buddies... Yes.
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Post Post #331 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:23 pm

Post by Tattletale »

In post 326, Formerfish wrote:
Vote Count 2.5


Fat_Tony- bjc
Boonskiies- Grib, Fat_Tony, Octopus (L-2)
theelkspeaks- Drew-Sta
massive- Tattletale, Boonskiies, Grib (L-2)

Not Voting: massive, theelkspeaks
By the way, today may not be the day for this, but the double hammer that was discussed D1 may be worth doing at some point. It effectively gives the town an extra lynch. It has to be done on a day with an odd number of players, and the later we wait the more likely it is Grib will be shot (if town).
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Post Post #332 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:29 pm

Post by Drew-Sta »

In post 316, Boonskiies wrote:Grib has that second vote he could easily put on me. Not so sure I'm scum now, are you boys and girls?!!?!?!!?
I'm more worried about bjc's infatuation with hammering. I have ISO'd you again and do think there's a link between you and ILF (TT).

- ILF appears to be buddying you.
- An attempt to bus Boon / distance given Boon was getting attention at the time.

For Boon:

- Links Shinobi and ILF; they kill Shinobi so that Boon can make the claims that he is very surprised by the kill (see my point 2 in ), which is distancing and allows him to claim ILF isn't mafia (the semantic shit he pulled)).
, - Distancing from ILF
- wants to kill Shinobi not ILF first; given we know now Shinobi was town, its basically viewed by me as protecting his mafia partner
- Complete flip flop on ILF's read to town, which seems to have been the desired result. Kill the perceived mafia partner in an attempt to clear ILF's name and then move from there.

UNVOTE: theelkspeaks

I am intending to vote Boonskiies, but concerned what bjc's behaviour means. I don't know why he wants to hammer. It concerns me.

I'm believe Boon is mafia. The 'too obvious' concern has melted away for me once I paired ILF's and Boon's interactions via ISO (IMHO) and when I formed the theory based on their interactions.

What do people think of this?
In post 321, Grib wrote:
In post 319, Tattletale wrote:I appreciate this, because I was looking at you as a possible massive partner based on his choice to unvote you on page 12.
This looks like you are happy to lynch him instead of yourself, which would imply you are not partners.


Your ISO seems to have no end of odd mistakes in it, all the same.
Bussing is a thing.

Boonskiies is just latching onto other people's reads. He claims his two scumreads are bjc and Fat_Tony, does absolutely fuck all to push for their lynch, and then votes massive. Granted, the "massive accidentally killed Shinobi" scenario makes sense, but it still bugs me.

In post 320, Tattletale wrote:
In post 318, Grib wrote:Walk me through the "obvious" part. Make the discussion happen.
Hider is a 2-shot role that dies when targeting scum. He died, on a night when there were two kills. I would expect him to use one of the shots. He would have crumbed his strongest suspect and then tested them.
Man I love having two votes.

Second Vote: massive


Hey massive. What say you.
In post 322, massive wrote:Optimal hider play is to hide with someone they think town, not that they think scum. They generally aren't TRYING to get killed. That was my first thought of the day and unfortunately Shinobi's only contribution to who might be town was ILF "because gut." That's another notch against ILF (sorry, Tattlerale) but wasn't anywhere near conclusive enough to bring up. In any event, I figure I'm actually the LAST person Shinobi's would hide with.
The bolded I agree with, Grib. What do you think of what I have posted?
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Post Post #333 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:57 pm

Post by Fat_Tony »

Situation - wait, first; UNVOTE:

Situation - bjc is behaving actively anti-town, will never get NK'd unless there's a vig, and even then seems just as likely to flip town as scum because his play is always this horrible from what I read about him.

You know what? I actually believe Boon is town. Sort of. I believe he COULD be town. I've unvoted. Drew, if you still want to vote for Boon, there's your chance. I have no intention of pushing anyone to L-1 with so long left before deadline, barring a solid scumslip.

If we can't find consensus pre-DL, bjc is assuredly the best last-minute lynch. He is either least valuable townie or scum - so we either win, or lose as little as possible. We should bear this in mind if the day goes late.
Fatter, but still not Tony...

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Record as scum: 1-0 from 1 games (Mini 1584, werewolf). But I'm totally town this time, I promise.
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Post Post #334 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:09 pm

Post by Drew-Sta »

In post 333, Fat_Tony wrote:Situation - wait, first; UNVOTE:

Situation - bjc is behaving actively anti-town, will never get NK'd unless there's a vig, and even then seems just as likely to flip town as scum because his play is always this horrible from what I read about him.

You know what? I actually believe Boon is town. Sort of. I believe he COULD be town. I've unvoted. Drew, if you still want to vote for Boon, there's your chance. I have no intention of pushing anyone to L-1 with so long left before deadline, barring a solid scumslip.

If we can't find consensus pre-DL, bjc is assuredly the best last-minute lynch. He is either least valuable townie or scum - so we either win, or lose as little as possible. We should bear this in mind if the day goes late.
I'm less inclined to go back to night immediately as well, but it is
very
telling you believe Boon is town given I've just given evidence that your slot and his appear linked. The unvote confirms it to a point. One of the reasons I held off was to see what your reaction would be to my post and see if you agreed or not.

You pulling off appears more like protection of him given you have just pulled off him with almost zero evidence to the contrary of what I have posted and you didn't want bjc to hammer and expose the issue.

I propose the theory that Boon and Fat_Tony / ILF are a mafia team. I will back my theory with my vote.

VOTE: Boonskiies

I'm happy to be swayed on this but I believe the evidence I've presented seems fairly sound. If someone can poke some holes in it and tell me where you think I'm wrong, I'm happy to alter my vote.
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Post Post #335 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:40 pm

Post by Drew-Sta »

Fuck.

I just quoted and and read Fat Tony's post as TT. Genuine misunderstanding there.

Completely disregard 334. The replacements and phone posting have seen me mix up two slots.

I do still believe Boon is mafia. I believe my theory of Boon/TT team is accurate. My post in 334 is in error and should be disregarded.

Sorry Fat_Tony.
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Post Post #336 (ISO) » Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:10 pm

Post by Fat_Tony »

I was going to say.
Fatter, but still not Tony...

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Post Post #337 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:40 am

Post by Octopus »

In post 296, Grib wrote:@Octopus

Yes. One vote. I'm trying to be careful about other people hammering. We have so much to discuss, no?
Ok, just curious as to whether it was a time limited ability..
In post 298, Boonskiies wrote:If I get lynched today, and flip town, might I add, scum will get another kill in the night,
and there's either a Vig or an SK in this game, as two people died in the night last night.
I die, I flip town. Then scum kills a town member. that leaves the vote count 3 scum, 4 town. BUT WAIT!!!!!!! There's another night kill happening. If that last night kill goes wrong, that's 3 scum, to 3 town, and game over.
So you didn't bother to find out what a Hider does, or maybe you just didn't care?

Ok there is a slim possibility of there being a vig or sk, but it's unlikely given what we know.
In post 283, massive wrote: (not to mention #73 now reads A LOT like ILF coaching Boon)
post 200 looks a lot like you coaching ILF, just sayin'.

In other news, I really don't understand why people come onto this board to play this game but spend game days going "I have no reads" or "I'm better after a lynch" and not participating. What's the point of even playing then?
QFT


To be honest though I'm now less inclined towards ILF/TT being scum. TT's posts are looking good at this point, it may have been ILF's level of play that was ringing bells, but that said I don't like this.
In post 308, Tattletale wrote: bjc also needs to claim NOW after that #YOLO hammer. I do not abide soft claims.
Asking for an unforced claim is more helpful to scum than town, IMHO.
In post 287, theelkspeaks wrote:Tattletales, willing to comment on your predecessor's play?
I don't like this.
In post 284, Boonskiies wrote: God fucking damn. How many times do I have to say? I can think people are scum without thinking they're scummy. Now I'm thinking Fat/Octopus are scum buddies for lack of paying attention to what people are actually saying, and just wanting the lynch. Puts me at L-1. Pfft.
In post 300, Boonskiies wrote:Fat Tony and Bjc are my scum reads. If I was scum, I would have tried to make a wagon on one of my scum brethren to try and get a lynch on them, and then it would seemingly clear my name. I even have done that in one of my most recent games.
How come I fell off your scumdar?
I didn't post anything between, what changed your mind?
In post 325, Grib wrote:@massive

Oh, I don't know about that. I'd say Hiding with possible scum to out them is
definitely
worth trading your life for. Hiding with a townread is useless, unless they turn out to be scum.

I highly doubt Shinobi chose to Hide with shinyskarmory, which means Shinobi Hid with scum. Based on Shinobi's post, the FoS falls heavily on you.
How would it out the scum? An NK is an information barrier, without
a priori
knowledge of who the hider's target was then the reason for their death can only be speculation, it's equally as probable that they targeted the NK as they did scum.

Without knowing Shinobi's motivation in hiding, you really can't say who he would have targeted, if he chose to hide for his own survival then I would have listed shinysk as a good choice, from his participation I wouldn't have thought he would be a particularly likely NK target. Then again, why would Shinobi have thought he would be targeted?
In post 331, Tattletale wrote: By the way, today may not be the day for this, but the double hammer that was discussed D1 may be worth doing at some point. It effectively gives the town an extra lynch. It has to be done on a day with an odd number of players, and the later we wait the more likely it is Grib will be shot (if town).
This would be hard to pull off with "the jolly hammerer" in town.

In post 281, Fat_Tony wrote:(Had I noticed this, I would have unvoted btw)

Theory - exactly one of Octopus and Boon is scum. If I ever get chance to reread d1 I'll work out who.
You now think that Boon is town?
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Post Post #338 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:34 am

Post by massive »

In post 327, Tattletale wrote:massive, if you chose not to bring it into the discussion, despite allegedly believing it might implicate me (one of your suspects), then I think a more likely hypothesis is that you felt it would be dangerous to discuss.
But therein lies the problem. I DON'T think it implicates you. I bring it up because it's the only thing he said about really any other player besides me, and even that wasn't well-formed. As I mentioned immediately following his vote on me (and I've mentioned more than once in reference to Octopus), I'll be really curious at the end to know what the heck it is in #200 that's either super-scummy or makes people want to misread / misinterpret it.
In post 328, Tattletale wrote:You have nevertheless continued working through those three names, albeit coming up with new reasons to do so. This implies to me that the targets of your "scumhunting" were premeditated on day 1.
Do I read this to say that Boon is NOT acting scummy, that I should NOT be focusing my attention on him, that there should NOT be five or six people who say they are willing to vote for him?
In post 328, Tattletale wrote:What makes this even more exciting is that you entirely leave out Octopus, who asked Grib about his role only a few posts above your own.
My post #121. The quote you are referencing is in Octopus's post #117. And the answer is, I don't know. Either I didn't see it up above the fluffy bits in that post, or it didn't resonate as potentially scummy because Octopus had just replaced into the game and looked like he was actively scumhunting (see the three posts from 117 up to my post 121). I also didn't call out ILF for her silly "oooh so THAT'S why Grib is double-voting" comment in #113, but I suspect you don't want me to comment on that.
In post 337, Octopus wrote:post 200 looks a lot like you coaching ILF, just sayin'.
Well I guess I should be happy I've gone from "forgiv[ing] blatant self-contradiction" (#246) to just coaching. The crappy part about #200 is, now that ILF has been replaced, we'll never get good answers on the legitimate questions in that post.
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Post Post #339 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:01 am

Post by bjc »

In post 333, Fat_Tony wrote:Situation - wait, first; UNVOTE:

Situation - bjc is behaving actively anti-town, will never get NK'd unless there's a vig, and even then seems just as likely to flip town as scum because his play is always this horrible from what I read about him.
O RLY?
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I am literally panicking right now because
I'm a fucking VT
and it really looks like I'm gonna get lynched and that scares me. I'd like to survive past Day 1.
"
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Post Post #340 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:29 am

Post by Grib »

In post 337, Octopus wrote:How would it out the scum? An NK is an information barrier, without
a priori
knowledge of who the hider's target was then the reason for their death can only be speculation, it's equally as probable that they targeted the NK as they did scum.

Without knowing Shinobi's motivation in hiding, you really can't say who he would have targeted, if he chose to hide for his own survival then I would have listed shinysk as a good choice, from his participation I wouldn't have thought he would be a particularly likely NK target. Then again, why would Shinobi have thought he would be targeted?
Why, hello, doubtcast.

I can't know for certain what happened last Night. But Shinobi had an ability that could potentially out scum (you know what a Hider does so I don't know why you're asking how a Hider could out scum?), but he was limited to 2 shots. It would be very, very stupid to use that ability with the full intention of keeping yourself alive, full stop. That would make more sense for a scum!Hider. He voted massive, promised to explain his vote later, but Oka was hammered out of nowhere. So if you want to talk about prior knowledge, I say it's very likely that Shinobi's target was massive. Shinobi died, which means he either targeted scum or shinyskarmory. It would appear to me it is much more likely he targeted massive.

There's always the chance that he Hid with shinyskarmory, but I doubt it. There's always the chance that there is a Serial Killer in this setup and they shot Shinobi, but I doubt it. There's always the chance that the moon is made of cheese, but I doubt it.

My guess is that the scumteam is trying to play it safe with the NK's, rather than getting rid of people who would be difficult to mislynch. shinyskarmory was a very safe kill.

Are you suddenly afraid of lynching massive For Some Reason? You were sold on a massive/ILF scumteam a while back, no?

@Drew-Sta

Boonskiies/ILF scumteam? Maybe. There are too many scummy players and it's super annoying.

Boonskiies: flailing and whining and unhelpful.
bjc: unhelpful and hammering. sigh.
theelkspeaks: lurky lurky lurksack.
massive: the only blow against him is Shinobi's death. more discussion here, please.
Octopus: defense of massive when it really looks like massive could be scum. again, more discussion here. if I'm wrong, let's sort it out.

We're not lynching bjc. He's too easy of a bandwagon and he's probably town. If we lose to scum!bjc, whatever.

Also,
In post 322, massive wrote:Optimal hider play is to hide with someone they think town, not that they think scum. They generally aren't TRYING to get killed. That was my first thought of the day and unfortunately Shinobi's only contribution to who might be town was ILF "because gut." That's another notch against ILF (sorry, Tattlerale) but wasn't anywhere near conclusive enough to bring up. In any event, I figure I'm actually the LAST person Shinobi's would hide with.
I hate this post. If your ability could potentially out scum, the optimal town play is to try to die. Our wincon is to kill scum, not ensure every townie's survival.

I'm giving Shinobi the BOTD and assuming he targeted one of his scumreads. Anything else would be a waste of time.

@everyone

Let's put Boonskiies' death on hold for a second and talk about massive and Shinobi. Would Shinobi target a player nobody was really paying attention to in order to survive? Or one of his scumreads, one he didn't have time to elaborate on, in an attempt to out him?
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Post Post #341 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:47 am

Post by Grib »

I'm just going to share my reads now, to show where I stand.

OkaPoka
Shinobi
shinyskarmory
Grib

theelkspeaks
bjc

Fat_Tony
Drew-Sta
Tattletale

Boonskiies
Octopus
massive

Me, bjc, theelkspeaks: not getting lynched. Fat_Tony, Drew-Sta, and Tattletale: not getting lynched toDay unless scumslip/compelling evidence.

For now,

Unvote

Second Unvote
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Post Post #342 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:57 am

Post by Octopus »

No problem with a massive lynch here. I have, after all, been promoting this very idea since my first post of the day. It's just that Shinobi's play could hardly be described as pro-town so for me all bets are off as to his actions.

Speaking of which...
In post 338, massive wrote: Well I guess I should be happy I've gone from "forgiv[ing] blatant self-contradiction" (#246) to just coaching.
No you haven't
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Post Post #343 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:00 am

Post by massive »

I have nothing further on this. None of us know Shinobi's night target and he didn't die from hiding with me. If he died because he hid with me, then it's because scum targeted me overnight and he died and I didn't.
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Post Post #344 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:01 am

Post by Fat_Tony »

In post 337, Octopus wrote:
In post 296, Grib wrote:@Octopus

Yes. One vote. I'm trying to be careful about other people hammering. We have so much to discuss, no?
Ok, just curious as to whether it was a time limited ability..
In post 298, Boonskiies wrote:If I get lynched today, and flip town, might I add, scum will get another kill in the night,
and there's either a Vig or an SK in this game, as two people died in the night last night.
I die, I flip town. Then scum kills a town member. that leaves the vote count 3 scum, 4 town. BUT WAIT!!!!!!! There's another night kill happening. If that last night kill goes wrong, that's 3 scum, to 3 town, and game over.
So you didn't bother to find out what a Hider does, or maybe you just didn't care?

Ok there is a slim possibility of there being a vig or sk, but it's unlikely given what we know.
In post 283, massive wrote: (not to mention #73 now reads A LOT like ILF coaching Boon)
post 200 looks a lot like you coaching ILF, just sayin'.

In other news, I really don't understand why people come onto this board to play this game but spend game days going "I have no reads" or "I'm better after a lynch" and not participating. What's the point of even playing then?
QFT


To be honest though I'm now less inclined towards ILF/TT being scum. TT's posts are looking good at this point, it may have been ILF's level of play that was ringing bells, but that said I don't like this.
In post 308, Tattletale wrote: bjc also needs to claim NOW after that #YOLO hammer. I do not abide soft claims.
Asking for an unforced claim is more helpful to scum than town, IMHO.
In post 287, theelkspeaks wrote:Tattletales, willing to comment on your predecessor's play?
I don't like this.
In post 284, Boonskiies wrote: God fucking damn. How many times do I have to say? I can think people are scum without thinking they're scummy. Now I'm thinking Fat/Octopus are scum buddies for lack of paying attention to what people are actually saying, and just wanting the lynch. Puts me at L-1. Pfft.
In post 300, Boonskiies wrote:Fat Tony and Bjc are my scum reads. If I was scum, I would have tried to make a wagon on one of my scum brethren to try and get a lynch on them, and then it would seemingly clear my name. I even have done that in one of my most recent games.
How come I fell off your scumdar?
I didn't post anything between, what changed your mind?
In post 325, Grib wrote:@massive

Oh, I don't know about that. I'd say Hiding with possible scum to out them is
definitely
worth trading your life for. Hiding with a townread is useless, unless they turn out to be scum.

I highly doubt Shinobi chose to Hide with shinyskarmory, which means Shinobi Hid with scum. Based on Shinobi's post, the FoS falls heavily on you.
How would it out the scum? An NK is an information barrier, without
a priori
knowledge of who the hider's target was then the reason for their death can only be speculation, it's equally as probable that they targeted the NK as they did scum.

Without knowing Shinobi's motivation in hiding, you really can't say who he would have targeted, if he chose to hide for his own survival then I would have listed shinysk as a good choice, from his participation I wouldn't have thought he would be a particularly likely NK target. Then again, why would Shinobi have thought he would be targeted?
In post 331, Tattletale wrote: By the way, today may not be the day for this, but the double hammer that was discussed D1 may be worth doing at some point. It effectively gives the town an extra lynch. It has to be done on a day with an odd number of players, and the later we wait the more likely it is Grib will be shot (if town).
This would be hard to pull off with "the jolly hammerer" in town.

In post 281, Fat_Tony wrote:(Had I noticed this, I would have unvoted btw)

Theory - exactly one of Octopus and Boon is scum. If I ever get chance to reread d1 I'll work out who.
You now think that Boon is town?
In 333: I say I think he COULD be town. I can see a world in which that is the case. I need to read through to ascertain if this is indeed that world.
Fatter, but still not Tony...

Record as town: 2-4 (33%)
Record as scum: 1-0 from 1 games (Mini 1584, werewolf). But I'm totally town this time, I promise.
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Post Post #345 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:06 am

Post by theelkspeaks »

Analyzing nightkills is a dangerous game to play, but can often lead to some accurate results. As others have said, the NK really only makes sense if we assume massive-scum, so that might be valid. On the other hand, Boonskiies seems to be lying through his teeth, and ILF's play was scummy, but I'll give ILF's replacement a chance to see if it was just mistakes or if there's scum motivation. God knows I've made enough mistakes even in my short mafia-playing career, and I'd hate to mislynch a townie just over poor play.

On the other hand, bjc is dangerously reckless, and I'm not convinced his "I AM THE HAMMER" style of play is a legitimate town decision. If we're going to have to choose between ILF and bjc in terms of antitown but possibly town players, I'd sooner lynch bjc than the ILF slot, as ILF has been replaced, and a rampaging hammer of "justice" is more likely to screw us over than basically any other play from a townie.
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Post Post #346 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:07 am

Post by Fat_Tony »

@Grib - I am on board with this. No sense QLing here but I'm happy to vote massive as soon as I can see a clear VC.

@theelkspeaks - so you're scum too? Lovely. You're right about bjc but I don't think it will come to that.
Fatter, but still not Tony...

Record as town: 2-4 (33%)
Record as scum: 1-0 from 1 games (Mini 1584, werewolf). But I'm totally town this time, I promise.
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Post Post #347 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:22 am

Post by Grib »

In post 343, massive wrote:I have nothing further on this. None of us know Shinobi's night target and he didn't die from hiding with me. If he died because he hid with me, then it's because scum targeted me overnight and he died and I didn't.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but there's no way for Shinobi to die if his target survives. When you Hide with someone, you and your target are essentially the same person for the Night. There are literally only three possibilities:

/ Shinobi Hid with scum. 90% certainty.
/ Shinobi Hid with shinyskarmory. 8% certainty.
/ Shinobi did not Hide, and was targeted by a third party. 2% certainty.

I really hate this "we don't know his target so we should just drop it" talk. We also don't know who scum are. Does that mean we shouldn't vote because we could end up mislynching?

Tell me about your scumreads.
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Post Post #348 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:38 am

Post by massive »

I tried valiantly to not put this information out, but I think we're getting away from finding the actual scum, so in the interest of expediency:

1. I was one-shot bulletproof.
2. There is the possibility I was a nightkill target, and that people going after me aggressively know that I was supposed to die and didn't die last night, and think that lynching me is the only way they can get me out.
3. This means that it's possible Shinobi hid with me and died for it.
4. This also means we have a second killer.
"1AM .. not a good time to think I started mixing massive and mathcam" - Totem, DP8
"unvote mlaker; vote massive; It's like MeMe/mneme and Corsato/Cadmium" - Dragon Phoenix, Newbie 38
PLEASE NOTE: I actively avoid being online on weekends! Don't replace me just because of this!
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Post Post #349 (ISO) » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:02 am

Post by Grib »

In post 348, massive wrote:I tried valiantly to not put this information out, but I think we're getting away from finding the actual scum, so in the interest of expediency:

1. I
was
one-shot bulletproof.
2. There is the possibility I was a nightkill target, and that people going after me aggressively know that I was supposed to die and didn't die last night, and think that lynching me is the only way they can get me out.
3. This means that it's possible Shinobi hid with me and died for it.
4. This also means we have a second killer.
1) I asked for your scumreads, not your life story. You're claiming, but how does that relate to who you think is scum?

2) The only people actively going after you are the ones who think Shinobi Hid with you, i.e. Tattletale and I, because it makes the most sense mechanically. Do you scumread either of us? Boonskiies...I don't even know if he has legitimate reads of his own, so.

3) If Shinobi hid with a One-Shot Bulletproof who happened to be targeted by the mafia, Shinobi would have survived. According to the wiki, the Hider is treated like the target for all other roles' purposes. Shinobi would have been treated like One-Shot Bulletproof.

4) What are the odds of that, compared to Shinobi simply Hiding with his scumread?

@the bolded: One-Shot Bulletproofs aren't made aware of whether or not their protection is used up.

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