NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)


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Post Post #1900 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:02 am

Post by Bookitty »

Okay, I'm going to take a stab at explaining the scumputer. DGB can critique it after.

This is Scum A. A pretty ordinary scum.

Image

This is Scum A's lovely scum family. Johnny plays baseball!

Image

This is a wagon:

Image

These are two wagons:

Image

Scum A doesn't want his family all getting on the same wagon with him. So he tells his lovely scum wife and his scum husband to get on one wagon, and tells his scum kids to get on the other. Scum A may walk (not vote) or may find a wagon of his own.

This is called the scum distribution ratio, which says that scum will be fairly evenly distributed on competing wagons and will attempt not to draw attention to themselves by all piling onto one.

Larger wagons are likely to have two or more scum. Smaller ones may only attract one. Little Johnny, the baseball player, for instance, may have a little red wagon all his own to ride on. But the theory is that scum won't all pile onto one wagon together, and they won't stay off wagons either.

By eliminating the known town members from a particular wagon, you can sometimes identify scum on those wagons by pure process of elimination. Otherwise, you're looking at statistical probabilities for any given group on a wagon; i.e., one of three, two of four of these players is probably scum.

So, how'd I do, DGB?
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Post Post #1901 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:06 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Excellent explanation, Bookitty! Flawed and misguided logic, DGB.
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Post Post #1902 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:21 am

Post by mathcam »

That sounds exactly how I interpreted it, BooKitty. But this is exactly the point -- the argument you're making in the "scum distribution ratio" is evidence that scum's ideal scenario (as with so many other things) to have their ratio distributed so as to perfectly mimic the "town distribution ratio," making these ratios ideally indistinguishable. If scum are divided equally among any given subset, then of course larger wagons will on average have more scum, and smaller ones will have fewer. You need some extra input to the scumputer if you want to get out anything stronger than "scum is divided evenly."

And if I'm reading her last post correctly, that's exactly what DGB is doing -- she is forcing into her model the assumption that every wagon with 5 or more people has at least one scum on it. This obviously has the affect of raising everyone's scummitude on any such wagon by a little bit. DGB is just quantifying this raise in scumminess with numerical values. Now that I understand a little better, I don't think this it's nonsense, but I still don't think it's helpful. First of all, I'll eat my hat if every single 5-member wagon has a scum on it thus far has had a scum on it (full disclaimer: I don't actually wear a hat, so this is a bit empty). But then if you try to fix the model by taking into account that there's some small probability that a given 5-person wagon has no scum on it would completely undo all of the slight summiness-raises foisted in there from her assumption. But perhaps more importantly is that the metric is just so unstable with respect to small variations in who was around when, people's playstyle, etc. From what I can tell, UT would be near the top of the scumputer in every single game he played in, simply because he likes to vote, and so is likely to be on a lot of big bandwagons.

DGB wrote:Are you my preferred lynch of the day? So far I voted STD, and SpyreX. Are you paranoid maybe a little?
Maybe a little, yes. I think I can be forgiven if in scrolling through your posts of the day you take into account the number of times my name appears in bold, or with the word "scum" oh-so-cleverly portmanteau'd into it, or passive-aggressive questions asking me to reveal my scum partners, etc., that I might have thought myself at the top of the list. I concede the point.
DGB wrote:It really does look like you've made zero effort to understand what I'm doing and are only interested in shooting it down.
Really? I thought I was one of the few people to be responding to it seriously. I expressed extreme skepticism of its merits, because it was based on premises that I couldn't find written down before. Your and BooKitty's clarifications have helped me understand it better. I'm only interested in shooting it down if I think it deserved shooting down. That said, it's clear that regardless of your alignment you put a lot of time into it, and I apolgoize if the fact that I disagree that the methodology is sound made me come off as dismissive of your efforts.
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Post Post #1903 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:23 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

QFT ^^^
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Post Post #1904 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:57 am

Post by Bookitty »

I have seen it work in later stages of the game. The issues I have with it right now are:

1) it's not taking into account associative tells
2) it assumes optimal scum play, or at least expected scum play
3) it doesn't include the possibility that some defused wagons were on scum, which would skew the results

I think it's worthwhile; I just don't think it's conclusive without further scum flips.
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Post Post #1905 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:04 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

I don't think it's worthwhile.
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Post Post #1906 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:26 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1900, Bookitty wrote:Okay, I'm going to take a stab at explaining the scumputer. DGB can critique it after.
So, how'd I do, DGB?
You did FAB.

I will add that from experience, early game wagons in large games need more scum to reach lynch because it's hard for the townies to agree and as scum I know I have to push harder for that day 1 lynch and it's hard to make it happen without support from several buddies. This is regardless of the alignment of the wagonee.
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Post Post #1907 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:31 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Not one player per wagon.

No sir, this is science.
In post 1835, DrippingGoofball wrote:DAY 1 probability of a random player being scum: 0.2272727273

DAY 2 probability of a random player being scum:
0.2
It's not "one scum per wagon" - it's sum of probability of individual players on each wagon being scum, which gets adjusted after players on the wagon flip one way or another.

mathcam you are clearly scum anyway and it's clear that the scumputer has nabbed your buddies and you are trying your hardest to discredit it after admitting that you hadn't even bothered trying to understand how it works, and how you say you think it works is all wrong.

The reactions to the scumputer results can be really telling.
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Post Post #1908 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:33 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1899, Albert B. Rampage wrote:How about if you only used data available on Day 3? It's a short game.
You do it. Is this a random game or is it an oddity? You can look at other games. Check out Sopranos Mafia in large theme where I came in as a replacement.
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Post Post #1909 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:34 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Here:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=11801

And it was a coarser calculation than the one I'm making here.
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Post Post #1910 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:35 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

VOTE: mathcam

You've never looked for scum and you never will. Check your role PM maybe.
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Post Post #1911 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:54 am

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 1175, DrippingGoofball wrote:
In post 1174, Kublai Khan wrote:Yes, plenty. You could always boot up the scumputer instead of scrambling to be on the forefront of whatever new trend is sweeping the game.
It's Day Effin 2, there is no use to the scumputer.
In post 1777, DrippingGoofball wrote:Oh and WOW

I'm alive Day 3?

I'm going to dust off the scumputer!
How does the difference between D2 and D3 make your methodology worthwhile?
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Post Post #1912 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:55 am

Post by mathcam »

Sigh, I give up trying to understand, DGB. I asked you a question, you answered, and when I used your answer to explain what I found objectionable, you get mad that I'm trying not to understand it. At some point you have to accept that maybe it's the way you're explaining it. But I've now lost interest completely in trying to understand it, and consider it an anti-town distraction from real content.
DGB wrote:Check your role PM maybe.
I think I've grown pretty desensitized to your passive-agressive barbs, but I'm intrigued that I can't even figure out what this one's even implying. That I'm scum but don't even recognize it, i.e., that your scumputer is so powerful it can detect scum not through the virtue of one's posts but by the content of their inbox? But wait, that doesn't make sense either, since if I'm reading the scumputer correctly (and who knows if that's even possible), your vote on me is flying directly in opposition to its output. It's almost as if you're saying that the scumputer results don't hold up to careful thought, and should take a back seat to more nuanced analysis -- but that can't be right, because that's what
I'm
arguing.
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Post Post #1913 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:28 am

Post by Kublai Khan »

In post 1889, Bookitty wrote:
@MOD:


Can we please have a prod on Kublai Khan? He hasn't posted yet this game day.

Also:

@Kublai Khan:
Who are your top suspicions now that Glork has flipped town?
I'm reading. I'm going over ISOs in my spare time. Sorry if I don't want to post fluff. Working on substance.
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Post Post #1914 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:40 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

In post 1912, mathcam wrote:
DGB wrote:Check your role PM maybe.
I think I've grown pretty desensitized to your passive-agressive barbs, but I'm intrigued that I can't even figure out what this one's even implying.
She's saying that you're not even looking for scum, and haven't been for most of the game. And then she made the sarcastic suggestion that if you do decide to look for scum, you might want to start with your own role PM.

Sarcasm aside, I tend to agree with her; I said yesterday that you haven't seemed to be doing much scumhunting, and you've done even less today.
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Post Post #1915 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:45 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

FOS: Yosarian
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Post Post #1916 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:46 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 1880, SpyreX wrote: STD's response to Zor was less playing the game and more defusing the bomb. Now, I'm the position of knowing Zor was town so its easier to see but a reread of that interaction knowing that makes it stand out.
Damn. You caught me.

My post recognizing that the way people were treating your predecessor's post as pro-town when it seemed pretty clearly independant of alignment, thus presenting people from misreading the slot, when in fact I was not the first to post such a thing since CES posted the same point and people seemed to ignore it, is clearly the most damning piece of evidence in this thread and identifies me as the scummiest person in the town, thus worthy of your vote.

GG I concede.

----
In post 1888, DrippingGoofball wrote: It's based on a random distribution of scum on wagons, and excuse me, but there are always a few scums on a typical team that wagon hard.
This is the initial assumption that you are making, which if untrue, pretty much debunks your entire scumputer and it becomes nothing more than a giant program for counting how many wagons people attended (for instance, myself and ABR seem to have ended up at the top, while MBL seems to be on the bottom. Shocker...and don't be like "well, look at Seol/Bookitty!" because it doesn't really matter since who knows what your voodoo magic system is going to bring out but it looks strongly corrilated between wagons and points.)

If you think I'm way off base, plug in UT to your scumputer and tell me if it determines if UT is scum or town.

My doubt comes from the fact that if you were scum you probably would have just been like "STD's on top, vote!" but you didn't (then again that might be too unsubtle). But...then you polled the town to see if that was a valid option and got a couple of "nays," so you're content to try these cute little potshots saying "you know I'm town, don't you?"

The conclusion I'm drawing is that this is just riduculous, it is NOT science just because you say it is, it is probablity with an assumption that is debatable. I hope that no one gives into this craziness just because it exists and may have "worked" in the past. If DGB is town it's relatively unhelpful and if DGB is scum it is pretty much useless.
In post 1907, DrippingGoofball wrote:The reactions to the scumputer results can be really telling.
This is the EXACT same thing as what you did yesterday with your "mathcam I found a cop with a guilty on you!"

You say something absolutely absurd, catch someone responding and saying that because they were flustered (or rather, that they responded not in the EXACT way that they're apparently supposed to according to you) they're obvscum.

How the heck does this even work when you're town? I assume you MUST do this when town because otherwise I don't know why you're still alive. I'm assuming that you don't have a heap of votes on you because everyone's like "oh, that's just how she plays." I am baffled that people went from "I'm suspicious of DGB" to "oh, good analysis DGB" in one post that was basically a post you regurgitated and I curse all the scum that likely took CTD's life in this game, as he was a vote against you.

I'm trying not to get trapped by your playstyle, but focusing on how you are using it. From that vantage point it seems pretty clear to me what you are doing. If you really are town and I'm caught then I would be astonished. I do not plan on removing my vote baring something drastic, because this is getting tiresome.

I refuse to further indulge in this distracting farce, which is really just another tally mark in the total number of distracting farces you have done this entire game. (If you tried really hard you could probably bait me into responding, but I'm going to do my best to resist the urge).
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Post Post #1917 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:50 am

Post by chamber »

In post 1916, Save The Dragons wrote:If you really are town and I'm caught then I would be astonished.
What?
Taking a break from the site.
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Post Post #1918 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:58 am

Post by mathcam »

chamber wrote:What?
Agreed. I realize there was the sarcastic "You caught me" at the start of the post, but that sure seems out of place being mentioned again later.
In post 1914, Yosarian2 wrote:
In post 1912, mathcam wrote:
DGB wrote:Check your role PM maybe.
I think I've grown pretty desensitized to your passive-agressive barbs, but I'm intrigued that I can't even figure out what this one's even implying.
She's saying that you're not even looking for scum, and haven't been for most of the game. And then she made the sarcastic suggestion that if you do decide to look for scum, you might want to start with your own role PM.
Ah -- that went over my head.
I said yesterday that you haven't seemed to be doing much scumhunting, and you've done even less today.
Agreed, you've made your stance on this very clear.
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Post Post #1919 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:59 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 1916, Save The Dragons wrote: I'm trying not to get
trapped
by your playstyle, but focusing on how you are using it. From that vantage point it seems pretty clear to me what you are doing. If you really are town and I'm
caught
then I would be astonished. I do not plan on removing my vote baring something drastic, because this is getting tiresome.
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Post Post #1920 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:15 am

Post by mathcam »

Ahhhh.
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Post Post #1921 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:18 am

Post by Kublai Khan »

@DrippingGoofball - How come you didn't boot up the scumputer after undo & petroleumjelly claimed?
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Post Post #1922 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:31 am

Post by Kublai Khan »

@DrippingGoofball -

How do you reconcile statements like:
In post 1210, DrippingGoofball wrote:DrippingGoofball (7) -- Untrod Tripod, Kublai Khan, Sotty7, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, CrashTextdummie, Albert B. Rampage

All but one scum is on that shit wagon.
with the logic that goes behind the scumputer?
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Post Post #1923 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:20 am

Post by SpyreX »

And just so I make sure its clear because I'm betting it was missed:
STD's response to Zor was less playing the game and more defusing the bomb. Now, I'm the position of knowing Zor was town so its easier to see but a reread of that interaction knowing that makes it stand out.
In post 1875, Save The Dragons wrote:Is your scumputer crap?
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Post Post #1924 (ISO) » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:28 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1911, Green Crayons wrote:How does the difference between D2 and D3 make your methodology worthwhile?
Not enough flipped players on Day 2. We had only LML & Shanba who barely did anything to narrow down the field.
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