NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

@STD:

Also I'm curious why you care so much that it's ABR who looks at my posts, but I doubt I'll get an answer to that so I'll let it be.

Oh, I'm happy to answer this. I think it's interesting that this is your question, rather than the obvious one: "why are you voting me?" You care enough about my position to pose a question relating to it, but the question only indirectly addresses my position and, even then, you undercut the imperative for me to answer it.

(1) Because I want to compare my own read on you with the read from another player who I'm going all in on labeling as town (ABR).

(2) But perhaps more importantly, and because I'm perpetually in a cycle of doubting my reads, and regardless of how ABR reads you, I can have an independent read on ABR (via his read on you) -- which I think will provide to be insightful in a manner different than how his current, "naturally occurring" reads (those he's just voluntarily voicing) will be informative when certain players start dying.

---

@ABR:

you tell me what you see. Just looking for your impressions. I'm happy to follow up.

[Save The Dragons]

Is there any scenario where you would decide to your case on me before ABR gets back to you about ISOing me?

[undo]

Is KK lurking or what?

I'm not touching STD (a healthy principle, I might add).

Now, the thing with VitR is that he was very active and aggressive during Day 1, attacking LML and all -- straightfowardly calling him scum since page 3 (!), the first player to do so. As Yosarian put it, he was "sticking his neck out too far, too early and based on little".

Then comes Day 2, LML is lynched, and VitaminR is a completely different player -- low-profile, ambiguous, indecisive. The contrast with Day 1 is striking.

And now, on Day 3, he's being more active, but mostly defensive. And as the pressure builds up on him, he reveals some degree of insecurity, resorting to emotional yet cautious replies ("Geez, you guys are nasty. I'm doing my best, is all I can say. This is it." / "Fine, I've earned that. I was wrong, I have to deal with the consequences." / "I think you're being a bit unfair here.").

I mean, if LML had flipped town, I would understand the discretion and the insecurity. But VitaminR was all over LML since the very beginning of this game. He seemed to be sure LML was scum. Wouldn't LML's scum-flip be a boost of confidence for any town player in his place? Instead, VitR just loses his flame from then on, as if he lacked an objective.

VOTE: VitaminR

[DrippingGoofball]

Is KK lurking or what?

Everyone knows KK is scum but no one wants to call him out on it.

[Green Crayons]

Is there any scenario where you would decide to your case on me before ABR gets back to you about ISOing me?

Can you restate this? I'm not understanding what you're asking.

[DrippingGoofball]

I really like undo's post.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I completely agree with undo.

[Save The Dragons]

GC: If I had asked you to explain your case against me, would you have done so or would you have been like "no, I want to hear what ABR has to say first," ?

[Sotty7]

The belief we can all be town?

Yep. So who is the scum? STD or you?

I still reject your premise. Tell me reasons why STD is scum that don't involve VCA and maybe I'll listen.

What am I missing with STD? Why are you voting him?

Pretty much this. Happy with my vote on CES after that little switch.

Yos might be reaching a little with VitR but I'm not getting any bad vibes from his push.

[MrBuddyLee]

@Albert

, what is your actual stance on mathcam and on VitR's defense of mathcam?

@Yos

, you've expressed near-constant suspicion of mathcam all game, and yet are only of only three players to never vote mathcam. How have you never ended up on any of his abundant wagons? D1, I asked which wagon experienced more resistance than it should have given all factors and you answered LML which was how I felt as well. How do you interpret the mathcam votes/wagons in the same light? (Almost everyone has voted him, but he's "hard to lynch".)

[Albert B. Rampage]

I think mathcam is scummy. If VitR flips scum, mathcam is less scummy.

[DrippingGoofball]

Tell me reasons why STD is scum that don't involve VCA and maybe I'll listen.

There is no way that LML didn't include a buddy in his list. That is NOT VCA.

From your perspective, if you're town, then one of STD or mathcam is scum.

OR you're scum.

[chamber]

There is no way that LML didn't include a buddy in his list

I think having 100% confidence in that is likely wrong, I'd put it somewhere around 90%. Which certainly means auto lynch from that pool when its down to 2 names, but at 3 it's not all that much better than random.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Tell me reasons why STD is scum that don't involve VCA and maybe I'll listen.

There is no way that LML didn't include a buddy in his list. That is NOT VCA.

From your perspective, if you're town, then one of STD or mathcam is scum.

OR you're scum.

That's just complete WIFOM DGB.

[mathcam]

Gah, I fell behind. First and foremost, I don't think I've ever been described as hard to lynch before. This makes me happy.

There is no way that LML didn't include a buddy in his list.

I disagree (and as the person who

made

this point, and to whom you subsequently assigned pro-town points for that argument, I hope this carries at least a little weight). As likely as it may be, it's silly to mandate that this is 100% true, to the point of taking it more seriously than, or excluding, other theories and reads.

In other news:

I too really like undo's last post, perhaps enough to convince me to vote VitR over CES, though I'm still a little surprised that people find VitR the scummier of the two (I will, however, confess to some sympathy towards VitR for having what I perceive as similar reactions to various interactions as I did). CES: I doubt I can give you a satisfactory answer to your question, but in brief, they feel very much like forced perspective. The quote on BooKitty felt oddly worded enough that I could imagine you pretending to be town, pretending to emulate a scum BooKitty and explain her actions. It just didn't seem like a natural thing to say.

I also think GC is looking very pro-town recently. I still see Yos as pretty pro-town from day 1...I doubt anything recent has taken precedence over that, though I haven't completely read the attack on him. There are better targets for today regardless.

KK's not looking great, but I had both he and Tigris as slightly pro-town, so this might only be because of inactivity. So while I'd certainly be happy to hear more from him...

Everyone knows KK is scum but no one wants to call him out on it.

Um, what? I've seen some people express some suspicion on KK, but this doesn't fit my feel of the thread (which, I admit, needs updating). I think you just use the English language in a completely different way than I'm used to, and I haven't yet learned how to translate. In any case, maybe I'm misreading the scumputer, but it seems to me that the list of people who you're pretty sure is scum is superlatively large. Or maybe it's just that you have many sets of people in which you think are definitely scum. I think it's pretty to hide behind "One of X, Y, Z is scum" and "One of A, B, C, is scum", etc., so could you summarize your current stance?

[DrippingGoofball]

There is no way that LML didn't include a buddy in his list

I think having 100% confidence in that is likely wrong, I'd put it somewhere around 90%. Which certainly means auto lynch from that pool when its down to 2 names, but at 3 it's not all that much better than random.

That's right but if Sotty were town, she'd look at the odds as close to 50-50, which is as good as it gets.

However she's calling these two players town... as if she'd rather delay their execution... because when they flip town... she'd be next.

[DrippingGoofball]

I disagree (and as the person who made this point, and to whom you subsequently assigned pro-town points for that argument, I hope this carries at least a little weight). As likely as it may be, it's silly to mandate that this is 100% true, to the point of taking it more seriously than, or excluding, other theories and reads.

You sound like Einstein trying to convince himself that relativity is wrong. Stahp it.

[DrippingGoofball]

I've seen some people express some suspicion on KK, but this doesn't fit my feel of the thread (which, I admit, needs updating).

I did say no one is calling him out on it. But seriously how many players would vouch for KK being town except MBL?

I think it's pretty to hide behind "One of X, Y, Z is scum" and "One of A, B, C, is scum", etc., so could you summarize your current stance?

You brought it up. I agreed with you. Now I have to summarize your own stance?

[MrBuddyLee]

@Yos

, you say you find STD obvious town for two reasons. For picking fights with four players D1, and for his votes on LML:

oh but I don't know if I'm ready. my body's saying yes, but my heart is saying yes...

Wait a minute.

Vote: LML

You add:

The way he went after LML, then went to the bookitty wagon, then came back to LML looks like someone who was honestly trying to find scum, not like someone who already knew LML's alignment and was trying to bus.

I'd like your thoughts on the following re: STD's approach to LML.


a)

STD was pressured by ABR and UT to jump from Seol to LML in the first place.

The post you cite above was pressured by other players, including one townie.

b) Server crashed two days later, and

as soon as it came back up seven days later, STD unvoted LML to vote PJ and LML unvoted STD to vote UT.

Note that LML's reason for voting UT was something LML's analysis shows STD was also doing, yet LML chose to switch from STD to UT right after a seven day server outage. STD gives absolutely no reason for unvoting LML or for voting PJ. Frankly, reeks of daytalk over the outage or at least reeks of opportunism to get off each others' wagons.

c) Despite voting PJ, STD wants us all to know he really really still wants to lynch LML. LML also IGMEOYs STD as he unvotes him. Such

hyper-awareness of the perception/risk of unvoting each other.

d) STD jumps to Bookitty basically saying "she's scum because 'Seol' aaaaaaand for defending LML." So

LML's almost certainly scum but Bookitty needs to hang because she's defending LML?

Ass-backwards.

e) STD

repeatedly draws attention to how he's not voting LML because no one else finds LML scummy yet.

f) (Slight/possible pro-town point for STD) When STD gets off Boo and back on LML June 9th, the count is Boo 8, PJ 2, LML 4. STD cannot vote PJ because both of his top suspects, Boo and LML, are on PJ. So STD has to choose between staying on Boo or switching back to LML who he's been calling out all day. This is townish if Boo is town, except that... UT asks STD why not stay on Boo, STD says "because the Boo wagon aint happening". STD's move from Boo to LML is less townish because

Glork, ABR, Yos, DGB just hard defended Bookitty and PJ just switched off Bookitty to LML

. Wind was a-blowin, and STD, if scum, must realize how shitty he'll look tomorrow if Boo flips town and he let LML slide after calling him obvscum much of D1.

I jumped off Bookitty because way too many people are saying "BOOKITTY'S TOWN I'LL NEVER VOTE HER!

g)

Admits he'll move his vote if either the PJ wagon or the Boo wagon picks up steam

, possibly fishing for a chance to leave the LML-wagon, possibly calling for help from scumpartners:

If the Bookitty wagon picks up some steam, I'll happily place my vote there. If PJ's wagon picks up steam, yeah, I'll deposit my vote there.

h)

votes PJ out of the block D2. Does that really make a ton of sense

given that PJ switched from Boo to LML before STD did and attacked LML much of D1 like STD did?

In summary, STD was pressured to vote LML by UT and ABR, unvoted LML and voted PJtown immediately following the server outage giving no reason, only revoted LML when his only other option appeared to be no-lynch, begged in-thread for someone to vote Boo/PJ so he could hop off LML, and the next day voted PJtown, another player who'd voted LML just like he had.

Yos, how do you find that set of circumstances obvtownish?

[chamber]

ok, I'm sold.

Vote STD

[MrBuddyLee]

PJ, I need a reality check. Can that above set of circumstances equally be interpreted as "STDtown found Boo and LML similarly scummy and hopped back and forth between their wagons (and yours) at reasonable times"?

[Sotty7]

Tell me reasons why STD is scum that don't involve VCA and maybe I'll listen.

There is no way that LML didn't include a buddy in his list. That is NOT VCA.

From your perspective, if you're town, then one of STD or mathcam is scum.

OR you're scum.

Circular argument is circular. Seriously, give me reasoned arguments and I might actually listen to you. Like MBL's 2118. That's what I'm looking for. This is a good post.

However she's calling these two players town... as if she'd rather delay their execution... because when they flip town... she'd be next.

Why aren't you hounding STD and mathcam about this then?

[DrippingGoofball]

Why aren't you hounding STD and mathcam about this then?

Because mathcam brought it up... so it's not him.

And I think STD is the scum... I'm voting him... I'd be trying to convince him to vote a townie!

Did you read MBL's post? You really have to vote STD now. If you're town, it's time to reckon that your read on STD is wrong.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

, you've expressed near-constant suspicion of mathcam all game, and yet are only of only three players to never vote mathcam. How have you never ended up on any of his abundant wagons?

He's consistently been one of my top 3 suspects since yesterday, but he's never quite been at the top of the list. Mostly because every once in a while he makes a post that gives me a that makes me doubt my read on him, basically for gut.

Logically speaking, he's still pretty likely to be scum, and I'd join a mathcam lynch as a compromise if necessary, but I still have doubts. I'm especially leery since I feel about the same way about him that I did about Glork yesterday; logically likely to be scum, but gut doubts. So I'd rather lynch either CES or VitR right now.

[Yosarian2]

You are just continuously throwing your case against him until he or it(in your opinion) breaks.

Yeah, that's basically how I find scum. Take a look at how I went after LML on day 1; you'll see pretty much the same thing. Either the person breaks, which makes it easy to figure out their alignment, or the case falls apart under closer examination.