Open 561: Farmer's Market (Game Over)

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Well, it's obvious why math thinks I'm scum.

BUT NO! IRRATIONALITY SHALL NEVER SURRENDER TO BORING RATIONAL PLAY!

[innocentvillager]

Sorry guys

Requesting replacement

[don_johnson]

@don_johnson:

• Why are you voting mathbandit?
  Did you ever check out the facts from post 120?
  Who are your top three suspects and why?
  Who are your top three town?

i'll present the mathbandit case when I return.

no. I'm not a fact checker. I was just commenting on the content of the post. if anyone checked the facts I would love to know.

I do not have three suspects atm. I need to devote some attention to this thread. right now I am on mathbandit for a couple of his posts early on, but that may change with a reread.

I don't have a top three town atm. but I will update that when I return.

v/la until Thursday July 17

i'll check in on Monday or Tuesday, but i'll be out of touch until then.

[Bins]

Oh, I should mention that I think that passing should be done earlier on rather than late. It was asked before when would the passing nights be and I'm not sure what the consensus is on that. In the first game for this setup, they didn't pass until the third day which fucked them over. Waiting, and if we mislynch twice or even once, it makes it much easier (or even more willingly) for Mafia to lie about what happened during the night.

So, hopefully you're able to pass, even with the V/LA? :/

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I think I was the guy who asked that.

I'd say definitely start tonight or tomorrow night. Probably tonight because of the difficulty of getting any info out of one dead player.

Also, my next post is gonna be a bit weird.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Okay. This kindof just clicked in my head. Sorry it doesn't really mean crap.

Well after I sheeped Siv on the buldge's wagon. This come out:

Sure. But our plan has less holes elsewhere for them to exploit this - if someone dies either the person above them is scum or scum gave fruit to one another. Like, your plan relies on scum mis-stepping to be better than our plan tbh. I don't think this is a good assumption to make. Hmm. You know, I can't actually see whats wrong with it right now. Dangit. I need to go way more in-depth...

I don't like how his opinion changes in mid text. "Your plan has holes." "Hmm...let me think." "Actually, your plan is OK". It feels like buddying. I don't know how else to describe this. Probably, the term "good cop, bad cop" fits here.

He says the other plan is better. Fake a thought process. And then says my plan is better. So that I feel happy....

Reading this, and thinking about it a bit... it's kinda valid...

Um, gonna do a comparison to bulge case.

Spoiler: Part I - The Night Strategy

I know you guys are tired of talking about this so I'll be brief.

I still think doing the fruit-circle on two nights is the optimal strategy, we just gotta work out which nights.

Anyway, the best we can hope for is we prevent two night kills at night. That means we have to win in the day. Everyone post once that they're on board for targeting below them (i'm on aronis), then we shut up about it because it's taking up space needlessly.

I was thinking about this, and it's risky. And it's also a bit silly. I was focusing on getting an extra lynch and it's pretty much impossible.

Hayato, what about the information an extra lynch would give? What about the information we get from the people who would have died? "Information" is so nebulous it's not really worth it.

I think he actually believes his strategy is optimal. I really don't think he realizes our strategy is optimal and is trying to get us to do something suboptimal as scum. His proposal is completely alignment neutral.

I kinda see what hayato is planning.

But yeah, I say we just run it the other way. There aren't enough people who get it for us to not just get wiped out at night and screwed over.

Up to this point, Siveure has made it quite clear which plan he's more keen on using. Note that this plan is clearly much harder for scum to get around. I shouldn't have to explain why, but just in case, here we go. The original plan is simply
1) everyone passes fruit to a designated target (person below is easiest way to do this)
2) if there is a night-kill, lynch anyone who claims to have screwed up in order to keep the plan airtight. Zero tolerance.
Hayato's plan leaves the door waaaay open for scum to lie and exploit the flaws in the plan. Benefits are that (if played well) we get information over more nights, but this simply does not outweigh the advantage it could give scum.

I think by this point we have to go with hayato's plan because we aren't finding scum atm. Also, unfailing fruit circle plan IS a subset of hayato's plan, so yeah.

But wait! Suddenly, we should go with hayato's plan? All for the sake of not wasting time? But weren't more people on board with the original plan?

yes.

And doesn't hayato's plan benefit scum?

yes.

And doesn't this sudden switch of opinions seem terribly lazy?

it should.

What I strongly believe happened here is this. As scum, Siveure had no choice but to go along with the town's plans. When hayato posted an alternate plan, Siveure looked at it and realized the plan would be better... for him, at least. But he couldn't instantly jump to the new plan without raising suspicion against himself, so he stuck to the original plan and waited for an opportunity to "give up" and just go with hayato's. Convenient.

(

Note:

the original proposition of a plan that helped scum was the cause of my initial suspicion for hayato as well)

That part of the case is imo total BS for two reasons

1) It's based on stuff that's just what null-siv is thinking. It could be null-siv speaking through town-siv or through scum-siv. There isn't any real way to get alignment from that, at all.
2) Bulge's interpretation of what I'm doing is completely different from my interpretation of what I'm doing. Like, when I iso'd myself after looking at his case it just didn't apply in any way at all.

With that in mind, in regards to hayato's case, when I look at my own iso I see what he's saying. Me, knowing what I meant each post, knowing I'm town, see hayato's case as pretty valid - yeah I did kinda look like I was buddying up to hayato.

So yeah... The problem is I don't know what to make of this. I kindof think he's pretty town off this... or he's just very good scum.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Also funny self-meta that i was gonna add to that.

Town-siv thinks he's obv-town.

Wait, that's wrong. Town-siv KNOWS he's obv-town, and anyone who scum-reads him is stupid and really bad at mafia or scum.

[havingfitz]

So two people replacing out. 3 recent replacements. A week long v/la.

Lovely

[Aronis]

So two people replacing out. 3 recent replacements. A week long v/la.

Lovely

My thoughts exactly.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I stopped caring about the game ages ago.

So things stalling even more actually IS lovely

[Aronis]

I'm still not lynching Siv.

It

could

be beneficial to pick which nights to give fruit on, idk.

I think I still want to kill hayato.

[Aronis]

I stopped caring about the game ages ago.

So things stalling even more actually IS lovely

Then will you just sheep me till one of us dies?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Well... I don't really have confidence in my own ability to find scum...

But your play reminds me quite a bit of some of my play.

No.

[Aronis]

Well... I don't really have confidence in my own ability to find scum...

But your play reminds me quite a bit of some of my play.

No.

I'm actually right alot more then people think. My problem isn't scumhunting, it's getting people to listen.

[Aronis]

Just saw vote count, will

Vote: Siv

per my earlier post. HE IS NOW AT L-1.

This isn't a great post, to say the least. So I'll:

VOTE: mathbandit

[And just pretend like you've been sheeping me]

[Formerfish]

VOTE: Unvote

My reads have been shit lately.

VOTE: Hayato

Gotta be honest, feels like you are trying to play me by singling me out with the replace shit, also you look scummy as hell and should probably hang.

[Bins]

Siv, I somewhat admire this play if you're scum. I'm going to keep my vote here for now, but I'm certain I'll be easily swayed off it by maybe another post or my own reads.

Reads would be easier if half the game wasn't gone/leaving. ;-;

[Bins]

I'm gonna call this summary town, null, scum and htfsik (how the fuk should I know).

Bulge -- town
Formerfish -- probably town
Havingfitz -- probably town
Siv -- htfsik anymore, probably town or I just got baited and outsmarted
Aronis -- null, doesn't say much
Hayato -- scummier than most
Math -- scummier than most
TSO, Dj, IV -- htfsik

I should look at positions on wagons but that's going to confuse me more.

[havingfitz]

Fcuk...

I'd consider hayatayo and TSO as alternatives to Siv due to a combination of suspicion and broken promises.

Question....if we didn't all give fruit tonight who would scum kill?
Answer...the player who they feel most threatened by or who would never be lynched.
Question 2....why would any town player enable scum getting rid if a player detrimental to their game if it could be avoided?

tl/dr:

We need to all give fruit tonight as has been discussed. Still prefer Siv but would settle for haya or TSO.

[T S O]

I'm so sorry but I just can't motivate myself to read this.

I will really try.

[havingfitz]

It's 11 fcuking pages TSO. You don't even need notes for that. Just read and think to yourself. ..what did I just read? Who is suspect? Who is a good mislynch. WTFE.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Who is a good mislynch.

Me?

Also, Yay! TSO and Bins have finally seen the light!

Wait... crap... now I might not get lynched... um...

I'll try to contribute... gimme some time to read those 11 pages again.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Yeah um,

UNVOTE: Mathbandit

while I sort stuff out.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Okay.

Hayato looks pretty town.

Bins and tso feel town to me.

IV idk but I think I go with hayato in calling him town.

Don feels like don johnson, and aronis feels like aronis. Don't want to lynch either one. (yes these are null reads, although aronis has slight townfeels)

Fitz's reads I all disagree with and I also think that's a fitz tell.

Bulge and Fish I can't be objective about but would have to say still kinda scum and screw you respectively.

Math is kiiinda scummy, but apart from anti-townness idk what to say.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Uh, sorry, math is anti-town but not really "scummy" so idk.