NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

I don't know! I actually saw that only just now, when I was looking back to quote her posts.


I don't particularly want to get into the merits of the scumputer, but plenty of people have pointed out how it

isn't

objective.

[Green Crayons]

If anything (and this is me first trying to articulate why that post struck me), I think it further underscores how I don't think the scumputer is particularly insightful -- rather than an indication that DGB is manipulating the numbers somehow (or "lying" as you so finely put it).

[chamber]

What? It's most certainly objective. I don't think anyone has argued otherwise. Useful? I don't think so, but undeniably objective.

[Green Crayons]

From memory, I recall someone mentioning the fact that she has excised herself from scum consideration and uses her judgment to pick which wagons are worth looking at.

That's not objectivity.

[Green Crayons]

"she has excised herself from scum consideration" = she doesn't include herself in the numbers

[chamber]

Yes, but thats irrelevant to whether -those- numbers could be reached by you. The wagons she's working from and her methods are public knowledge.

[Green Crayons]

Okay?

[mathcam]

Though I agree that the comptuation of numbers once you've put down a formula is a completely objective process, deciding on how to construct the formula is not particularly objective. As I harped on at some length in a previous post, deciding how to weight being on certain types of wagons is a judgment call (being on

these

types of wagons is scummy, but

these

are okay). You could easily come up with a scumputer-like formula that gives a completely different ordering of scumminess.

Apart from the rationale that LML pointed to mathcam, sotty, and STD (a point you said was not compelling), the only other knock against sotty that I recall seeing is that she's not very aggressive.

It's not just not being aggressive. It's also a lack of any interactions with anyone that made me think "Hey, those two are unlikely to be scum together." I haven't been particularly aggressive this game, but I would bet you'd agree that there's quite a few players I'm unlikely to be scum with. So Sotty, who I think most of us have a pretty neutral read on, hasn rarely been seriously attacked, and has rarely done any serious attacking, and so could be scum with just about anyone. So while there are certainly aspects of my argument that merit some skepticism, the following is a fact: If X and Y are

a priori

equally likely to scum, but we then find out that X is not scum with A, B, or C, but do not know analogous information about Y, then Y becomes more likely to be scum. The argument against Sotty is precisely that.

This is terrible. Can I please get a case against me to actually respond to?

That

is

the case. I believe you are the best lynch for today because of the above paragraph. That is a case you can respond to. You can argue that there is something wrong with the algorithm. Or you could agree with the algorithm, but disagree on the list of pairs I excluded. Or you could agree with the algorithm, but propose a different conclusion from the results (e.g., going after porochaz or OGML). Or you could even argue that although you see the merits of the case against you, it is pretty circumstantial evidence (with which I would agree), and hence you believe X is a stronger lynch today because of Y.

Any of those options, executed well, seem pro-town to me. Complaining that the argument is unfair just feels to me like an annoyed scum who thinks they're on the road to a noose but feels obligated to put up some token resistance.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I agree with mathcam.

[petroleumjelly]

Deadline is

tomorrow

. This game is pretty disgraceful... why are we having to scramble for yet another deadline lynch. Deadlines are not the ideal times to be lynching people, especially when games are overly long such as this. This game has a definite "too many cooks spoil the broth" feeling. And there are still people who are

not voting

.

Votes need to move and

now

. I have updated Patrick's most recent vote count with the latest votes:

Votecount

Cogito Ergo Sum (3) -- Sotty7, Yosarian2, Bookitty
Save the Dragons (1) -- Cogito Ergo Sum
VitaminR (1) -- undo
DrippingGoofball (4) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons
Sotty7 (6) -- mathcam, Albert B. Rampage, DrippingGoofball, chamber, SpyreX, VitaminR

Not voting: MrBuddyLee, OhGodMyLife
17 alive, 9 to lynch.

At the very least, Cogito Ergo Sum, undo, MrBuddyLee and OhGodMyLife clearly must move their votes elsewhere.

I also

strongly

urge the players voting Sotty7 to move their votes now. I do not claim to be confident somebody is Town lightly. This is not me just thinking Sotty7 is

probably

Town -- I am

sure

she is Town.

~

As a note, I will be at work when deadline hits tomorrow. I will try to make myself available online but I can't make promises -- my phone actually has trouble logging in on mafiascum, and last time I had to use a work computer to log on (and the site is partially blocked).

[Yosarian2]

You haven't conceded a single point and been pretty stubborn about it, when I know you're wrong about every one of them!

What have I "been wrong" about? I explained why I thought your behavior looked more likely to come from town then scum. You said as your defense that you might behave like that anyway because you're friends with chamber and CES. Ok, that's reasonable enough, but that behavior is still more likely to come from town then from scum. I don't care how angry you get about it, I'm not going to "conceed that point" when we both know that I'm correct about that.

The fact that you're now claiming to suspect me, using that threat of attack, as a weapon to try to get me to back down from attacking you just makes you look worse. You're attacking me BECAUSE I'm still attacking you, because I didn't "conceed" points or "back down" or whatever. I understand that you would *like* me to stop attacking you, but that's not a reason to *suspect* me. Unless, of course, you are scum, and all your suspicions are fake anyway.

Now, to be fair, it is *possible* for a townie to behave like that; it's not that uncommon for a townie to behave irrationally because he's being attacked and he doesn't like to be. However, it is more likely to come from scum then from town, because town actually want to find scum, while scum think of their vote as just another tool to use to help them win.

[Yosarian2]

Reversed the word order of "town" and "scum" in that post, but you know what I mean.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Mathcam expresses my exact thoughts quite eloquently. I think that had Sotty reacted in one of the pro-town ways that mathcam suggested, I may have been swayed, but by POE, her reaction, and the resistance to her bandwagon by her buddies and the masons, I’m resolute in my decision to see her flip today.

[DrippingGoofball]

Let's show PJ that Sotty is scum. He needs proof. Let's give it to him.

GO GO GO

[Albert B. Rampage]

LEGGO SOTTY BWANWAGON

[Porochaz]

Lets think about this one for a few seconds hmmm?

[DrippingGoofball]

Lets think about this one for a few seconds hmmm?

Deadline is tomorrow where were you when the thinking was happening???

Nice attempt at saving your buddy.

[Albert B. Rampage]

No, we're at deadline. Vote for DGB, Sotty, or Yosarian. I think DGB is town, but other people don't, so there are your choices.

[Porochaz]

I was voting you, have no impulse to change. Voting sotty now is pretty bad, even for you.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Wow they really are scumming it up to defend Sotty. We'll lynch them one by one after she flips scum. PJ will thank us for it.

[mathcam]

This game is pretty disgraceful... why are we having to scramble for yet another deadline lynch. Deadlines are not the ideal times to be lynching people, especially when games are overly long such as this. This game has a definite "too many cooks spoil the broth" feeling. And there are still people who are not voting.

a) Oh, come on, get off your high horse. It's a game, and it is what it is. It's not like anyone

wanted

a deadline scramble.
b) There are two people not voting, one of which has been in the game for 2 days with a 90-page reading deficit. Go yell at MBL if you want.
c) I'm not saying I'm going to move my vote, but who's your next top choice after DGB? I don't think she's scum.

ABR: Why is Yos on your list, but not CES?

[Yosarian2]

I also

strongly

urge the players voting Sotty7 to move their votes now. I do not claim to be confident somebody is Town lightly. This is not me just thinking Sotty7 is

probably

Town -- I am

sure

she is Town.

Albert, DGB: I would bet you 50 bucks, right now, that Sotty is town.

We've got one of the best mafia players ever as a confirmed town mason, and you're not even going to *listen* to him when he says something like that? What the hell's the point of having masons, then?

[DrippingGoofball]

I would bet you 50 bucks

You're trying to be modkilled? Please retract.

[Yosarian2]

No, we're at deadline. Vote for DGB, Sotty, or Yosarian. I think DGB is town, but other people don't, so there are your choices.

Uh. The wagons are DGB, CES, and Sotty. Nobody is voting for me, because nobody actually thinks I'm scum, although VitimanR and now DGB are pretending to.

[Yosarian2]

I would bet you 50 bucks

You're trying to be modkilled? Please retract.

You understand that that's just a figure of speech, right? Nobody's actually betting money.