Open 561: Farmer's Market (Game Over)

[havingfitz]

Siv.....is that a self vote or a spoiler fail? You might want to lay down an unvote to be sure.

More to say in a few....

[havingfitz]

Bins...KMA with the eat neil's dust comment.  Someone finally reads
the game and comes to the same conclusion I did with my first post of
the game when I started the first Siv wagon and I'm eating dust.  ffs


I will say I have slight reservations about lynching Siv because he is
probably the most active player in the game but I do still find him
suspect.  At least as suspect as you can be on D1 and with no flips.

i.e. I will probably end up voting Siv. 

I do think we should at least wait until TSO's replacement is found so that we can be sure the plan is understood.

As far as the plan goes...if Siv is the lynch today and he does flip
scum...we just need to do the all give fruit thing as has been agreed
to basically the entire game.  If we start getting cute with different
variations of fruit giving you're just going to introduce most
likelihood of confusion and/or gaps for scum to sneak a kill in.

Question to all entertaining Bin's (which was proposed by someone else
earlier iirc)...what if scum are able to give away fruit when there is
only one scum left to perform the kill?  Or what if scum do not have
to perform a nk?  Are half the players cleared or implicated then?
(no.)

Nice catch up post neil.  You could have saved me a lot of bitching if
you had done it a few days into replacing in vs waiting 10 days.

[Bins]

I don't understand your questions.

[havingfitz]

Question to all entertaining Bin's

plan

(which was proposed by someone else earlier iirc)

to only give out some of the fruit if we lynch scum today

...what if scum are able to give away fruit when there is only one scum left to perform the kill? Or what if scum do not have to perform a nk? Are half the players cleared or implicated then?
(no.)

[Bins]

If they give away fruit, they can't kill.

If scum don't night kill, we prevent a night kill and we only use half the fruit. (Pretty much the original plan but less fruit used).

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

UNVOTE: siveure

It's a spoiler fail

[havingfitz]

OK...even if scum are not able to give fruit if they kill (which on
further consideration is probably the case....I was viewing it along
the same lines as when scum can't kill and perform an action unless
they are they only scum left) I'm not sure what we gain.

Lets say we hit scum today and we're down to 10 players (9T = 1M).
And for the sake of argument we say only half of us give away fruit.
Leaving out names for the moment, we have players 1-10. Say all odd
#s give fruit.

• 1 gives to 2
  3 gives to 4
  5 gives to 6
  7 gives to 8
  9 gives to 10

Let’s say someone receiving fruit is killed (#2).

And everyone
else received a fruit as planned. That would mean scum was within 5
players: 4, 6, 8, 10 & 1.

So D2 we lynch from within that group: 4, 6, 8, 10 & 1. Let's say 1.

If they are scum...we win. If they are town...we go:

• 4 gives to 5
  6 gives to 7
  8 gives to 9
  10 gives to 3
  

Let's say they kill #5. And everyone else received a fruit as
planned. That would guarantee scum was #4. So scum would be stupid
to kill anyone in this scenario because regardless of whether scum
killed one of the players giving fruit (i.e. the other suspects) or
not...they have either outted themself or at least narrowed it down to
2 for town. And if they continue to not kill...we would just keep
lynching from within the group identified after the first NK.

So let's go back to the first N1 scenario. Say all odd #s give fruit.

• 1 gives to 2
  3 gives to 4
  5 gives to 6
  7 gives to 8
  9 gives to 10

Lets say no one is killed.

And everyone received a fruit as
planned. That means scum could still be anyone. Half the players are
down one fruit while the others are not. This would most likely
continue on, alternating the half giving fruit and the half not giving
fruit to give us potentially 4 nights without a NK.

OK...I just talked myself into it. If we hit scum we should take
stock of where we are with regards to fruit and consider halving
giving fruit. If we mislynch the first two days this plan goes out
the window but if we can hit scum today we stand to gain 4 nights
without a NK and if we mislynch today but hit scum tomorrow...we stand
to gain 3 nights without a NK.

So we just need to hit scum. Otherwise we all give fruits.

Siv...what are your up to date reads?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Still mostly the same lol. Kinda influenced by neil.

Bins is town because she just looks really town.
Fitz is town mostly because he's made me say stuff when I went full defeatist tbh.
Aronis is town b/c yeah neil's reasoning = my old and i was pretty confident already.
Neil is town b/c of the earlier stuff on hayato and i agree with all his reads except concerning me.
TSO is probtown b/c partly gut and partly sheeping neil.
Fish idk. Attitude to defeatist siv wasn't great so sliiightly scummyish i guess? Idk. This is pretty null
Don idk. At all. Can't go off the tells neil has b/c hey they're all interactions with scum-siv.
Math idk.
Ice idk. Actually, kinda agree with neil (lol) on that.
Bulge is kinda scummy, mostly off the early stuff (like pre fitz/fish replace in). Looks postury. Also the whole second to vote first to push sorta thing...

Strength of player isn't really important with me prob being lynched.

Anyway, I would sheep neil right now but idk whether ice or don is the person to sheep onto.

Eh, with the crap everyone ELSE has on me, it's unlikely Ice is legitimately able to see past that but falls on "I'm making townslip"

VOTE: iceguy

Btw aronis you should probably be listening to neil/bins. Just imo.

[Robocopter87]

Xayzeck replaces TSO.

WELCOME HIM.

And with all the playerlist slots filled, the deadline is secured.

Let's keep activity alive guys!

[Formerfish]

Still mostly the same lol. Kinda influenced by neil.

Bins is town because she just looks really town.
Fitz is town mostly because he's made me say stuff when I went full defeatist tbh.
Aronis is town b/c yeah neil's reasoning = my old and i was pretty confident already.
Neil is town b/c of the earlier stuff on hayato and i agree with all his reads except concerning me.
TSO is probtown b/c partly gut and partly sheeping neil.
Fish idk. Attitude to defeatist siv wasn't great so sliiightly scummyish i guess? Idk. This is pretty null
Don idk. At all. Can't go off the tells neil has b/c hey they're all interactions with scum-siv.
Math idk.
Ice idk. Actually, kinda agree with neil (lol) on that.
Bulge is kinda scummy, mostly off the early stuff (like pre fitz/fish replace in). Looks postury. Also the whole second to vote first to push sorta thing...

Strength of player isn't really important with me prob being lynched.

Anyway, I would sheep neil right now but idk whether ice or don is the person to sheep onto.

Eh, with the crap everyone ELSE has on me, it's unlikely Ice is legitimately able to see past that but falls on "I'm making townslip"

VOTE: iceguy

Btw aronis you should probably be listening to neil/bins. Just imo.

Explain your read on me, cause those sure are some words but together I have no idea what you ate trying to say.

And aren't Neil and Bins voting you right now? And you want another player to listen yo them? Death wish?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Uh.

I don't really have a read on you.

You were being an ass to me while I was being incredibly, incredibly defeatist and I kinda had that as a bit scummy but yeah. It's not.

I got to L-1 earlier. There's someone new voting me. The case is a lot bigger. I don't dispel cases except by time and there's only five days to deadline. I'm dead. I'm completely dead. My only real hope for survival is someone decides hey ice looks scummy regardless of siv's alignment. (Which yeah. If ice looks suspicious with town-siv, why not with scum-siv?) And even so, I shouldn't really be alive in lylo because even if I DO convince enough of you I'm town I look too scummy to replacements to live.

[Bins]

Ugh. Blrha d. I want to keep Siv. Siv gives me good feelings.

Ice gives me bad feelings.

I'm conflicted because Neil makes sense. I'll have to look over everything again for myself.

[The Bulge]

In the case of a scum-flip (regardless of who we end up lynching), are we agreed on Bins' plan then?

[Formerfish]

Ugh. Blrha d. I want to keep Siv. Siv gives me good feelings.

Ice gives me bad feelings.

I'm conflicted because Neil makes sense. I'll have to look over everything again for myself.

Stop fence sitting. You want to keep him but your vote is still on him and he is at l-1.

[The Bulge]

L-2, by my count. You unvoted.
Also I thought I had my vote on him but I don't, so I can hammer if that's what we're doing.

[Bins]

I'm not..

Well, I am. Kind of. I understand the points against Siv, but I really don't get the gut feeling that he's scum yet. Honestly, without Neil's post reminding me about the start of the game, I probably ranked Siv as one of my highest town reads.

I just don't want mislynch cause I want my plan to go through, lol.

[Bins]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Ice

I felt a LOT better with my vote here. It's staying here.

I'm going to trust my gut.

[havingfitz]

No one put anyone at L-1 please until fruit dispensing plans have been posted.

[Bins]

And everyone confirms they understand them.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Yeah.

Fitz post makes me think nobody should both send fruit and recieve it, should we get scum.

[Bins]

^ Yeah, definitely second/third this.

[Xayzeck]

Hi

I've played this setup once

Havent caught up yet tho

[The Bulge]

Hi

I've played this setup once

Havent caught up yet tho

Weren't you the scum that won it last time?

[Xayzeck]

Yep, I was

I replaced in mylo and made like, 10 post. Most of it was predecessor's work

[neil1113]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Ice

I felt a LOT better with my vote here. It's staying here.

I'm going to trust my gut.

I think this is a bad spot to be in right now, voting Ice. I don't believe Ice will (or should be) our lynch for today, given the information. If Ice does flip scum, we won't have much information to work off of in regards to team, etc. However if I'm correct and Siv flips scum, we have a fairly certain idea where to go next. If Siv flips town, we have a lot of information to work off of then, to figure out the next best path. Either way, we'll get more information in regards to Siv flipping then Ice.

Also, consider this Bins: Who's pushing the Ice wagon right now? (Answer: Siv.) It's scum trying to play the "appeal to emotions" and the "defeatist" card again. Why? Because it worked for him last time. And you're letting him manipulate you... again. Siv is deflecting his lynch to the easiest target (and the only person I made a case on, besides his partner Don) that others have slightly expressed concern with. Siv thinks Ice would be the best lynch right now, and Siv won't have to buss his partner to do it. Until a Siv or Don flip, I do not feel comfortable with Ice and will read Ice as town in comparison to my desire for lynching Siv.

Just think about it Bins.

(Also, Hi Xayzeck! It's been a while lol.)