Open 561: Farmer's Market (Game Over)

[Xayzeck]

We could save fruiting for after we hit scum tho

[havingfitz]

That was discussed. You might come across it as you catch up. Rather prevent nk's early and keep protown around.

[Bins]

The less people, the later on, the easier for scum to lie.

[Bins]

He figured it out - so you ARE scum?

I don't like this post. That seems awfully nit-picky. That was in no way a slip by Math.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I wanted to see what he'd say to something ridiculous.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Like, I don't think his response is the greatest but it's a tiny tell.

[havingfitz]

I wanted to post something before day end at least.

He said 2.5 days ago

Welcome back.....

[Xayzeck]

Haven't caught up fully, because there's a lot of walls

If scum are paired, we won't know yknow

just going to quote this

because i think if scum are paired, we'd never know.

unless we mislynch once after the fruit

[havingfitz]

Wwhether I agree or not...what's your point Xay?

[Bins]

The chances of putting the two scum together on the list is 1.8%.

I think it's the best plan we've got.

[mathbandit]

10% by my count. But it's still the best we've got.

[Bins]

55 possible pairs. 1/55 = 1.8%.

[mathbandit]

Wrong way of looking at it.

Assume X is Scum. X is paired (or passing fruit to, doesn't matter) another player Y. There are 10 other players in the game, and 1 other Scum. Odds that Y is Scum are 1/10. So there's a 10% chance (using either the pairs or circular list) of Scum being able to kill and cover for eachother.

[Bins]

Oh, shit, ya right.

I shouldn't have doubted the guy with math in his name.

[Bins]

So, math, do you think that since there's a 10% chance that scum are paired, do you think passing tonight is worth if we mislynch?

[mathbandit]

Absolutely. Finding out that the Scum are paired is more than worth them getting a nightkill. Then we just switch up the pairings for the next night, and as soon as we hit 1 Scum we win.

[don_johnson]

when is deadline?

[Bins]

July 28th.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Don, nobody is gonna lynch math. Especially without a case. Vote me or ice. We are almost certainly the only people getting lynched today. That also kindof goes for everyone else who isn't voting one of us.

Spoiler: useless night probability math crap

Two reasons why the night probability is inaccurate.

1) There will be 9 other players in the game after the lynch, not 10.
2) Circular list has two potential scum places for scum X, not one.

That makes me think 1/9 chances with the pairs and 2/9 with the circle.

If you look at it the other way, there are 9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1 possible scumpairs = 45 and 5 of them are paired, so 1/9 again.

[Bins]

Why will there be 9, not 10?

[havingfitz]

Too bad e don't know what the votecount is....

[Bins]

I'll do an unofficial one.

[Bins]

--:Vote Count:--

• T S O [ 0 ]
  
• havingfitz [ 0 ]
  
• Siveure DtTrikyp [ 2 ] mathbandit, neil1113
  
• Aronis [ 0 ]
  
• IceGuy [ 2 ] Siveure DtTrikyp, Bins
  
• The Bulge [ 0 ]
  
• don_johnson [ 1 ] The Bulge
  
• neil1113 [ 1 ] havingfitz
  
• mathbandit [ 3 ] Aronis, IceGuy, Don_Johnson
  
  
• Formerfish [ 0 ]
  
• Bins [ 0 ]

Not Voting

: T S O, Formerfish

Amount To Lynch

: With 11 alive it is 6 to lynch

Deadline

: None.

correct me if wrong

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Why will there be 9, not 10?

One person died.

Pick one scum. Regardless of who it is, there are 9 other players, so 1/9 chance that they're in a pair.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Also I really dont think a math lynch is good at all.