NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[chamber]

Vote: porochaz

[Albert B. Rampage]

Juls, there's no way that Yosarian is scum.

Pick someone inside this group please:

[Porochaz, CDB, mathcam]

If this is the voting pool, my gut reaction (based on my memory of each player's/slot's play) is Poro > mathcam > CDB.

I'll vote Porochaz if you will.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Porochz

Wanted to skim his post history before committing. Comfortable with this.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote Porochaz

Quicklynch gogo

[Green Crayons]

I'll elaborate when I get home. I'm on my phone and my notes are on my PC.

Though I don't think we're going to get five more votes for an actual quicklynch (as opposed to a "quick" lynch relative to this game's pace), I do want to see this.

[Juls]

So just transcribing a few of my notes (please don't ignore them cause you are set in your reads)

255 - he sets up an if Vit is scum LML is town (one reason to suspect LML/Vit/Yos)
290 - comment about LML and Vit being buddies
289 thru 318- really light investigations of LML but puts vote on nati completely throwing aside all conversations with LML
379 - votes LML while retracting suspicion of Vit
381 - over the top declaration of STD as town
381-401 - lots of direct interactions between Yos/lml/std
433 - another comment of if LML is scum, Vit is town. See the reciprocal in 255

[Albert B. Rampage]

Juls, don't worry, just trust us, Porochaz is scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Although, at the moment, I think that CDB is more scum.

[Juls]

So don't waste my time reading 140+ pages? Cause to be honest, if you are going to ignore me I am not going to waste my time and will just hold the slot until it's my turn to get night killed.

[MrBuddyLee]

Happy birthday, Patrick!

[Green Crayons]

Basically, I was setting up a situation where the play pro-town DGB would make was different then the play scum-DGB would have made.

Once I made it clear that I think that either DGB or STD is probably scum (which, by the way, I actually do), then hypo-scum-DGB (who presumably would already know STD was town) would probably derail the whole STD bandwagon; stop voting for him and vote for me, or change the focus to someone else, or something.

If she did then, then I'd know she was scum. (On the other hand, in the situation where scum-DGB was bussing a partner, she would have said she was confident he was scum right away; I expected town-DGB to be more then a little paranoid about my fairly bizzare question.)

The fact that she's still willing to lynch STD, even knowing that she's likely the lynch tomorrow if he's town, means that DGB is most likely town who actually believes he's scum.

Was this expectation of blatantly scummy behavior coming from DGB-scum based on your previous experience with DGB?

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey Juls, brilliant observations thus far, keep it up.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Well, Juls, if you had a preference between those 3, I'd trust you and go for it, but I mean, if you're gonna say me/MBL/Yosarian/Bookitty are scum, well, I just think you haven't read enough of the game.

Happy birthday, Patrick!

[Porochaz]

Please keep posting and reading. People are interested in your opinions and it would be useful to have one confirmed town in the game that is actually, you know, confirmed giving opinions.

[Juls]

Where do you get that list of names?

[chamber]

And I thought I was being insufficiently subtle.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Where do you get that list of names?

We've pretty much broken down the game to where we can narrow the scum down to a small group. Thanks to the interactions in the game, the vote analysis and common sense.

[Green Crayons]

@Juls:

I think I can do a quick breakdown as to how we're looking at either Poro, mathcam, or CDB. Some mindreading involved.

Masons

8) undo
9) Sotty7
11) Juls (replacing petroleumjelly)

Not Viable Lynch Candidates

(I don't think these players are on anybody's radar for today.)
1) Chamber
15) Albert B. Rampage

Lynch Pool

2) Porochaz
5) MrBuddyLee
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
16) Green Crayons
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
18) VitaminR
20) Yosarian2
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)
22) ChannelDelibird (replacing OhGodMyLife who replaced Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris)


So, going from the lynch pool, DGB matched up the following players so that if one's scum, the other is likely town, and vica versa (all according to her bandwagon analysis, which still makes me somewhat skeptical in terms of being used solely to lynch a player, but which I think is of use to help narrow the focus in light of the fact that there is some sense behind it that has led to previous success):
- Porochaz v. GC
- MBL v. Spyre
- mathcam v. Bookitty

Although I find myself going back and forth on MBL, I must admit that MBL and Spyre look good with STD's flip. ABR apparently agrees, but with much more gusto. So he picked one player from the other match ups (Poro and mathcam), presumably the one he thinks is scummier of the particular match up.


Who else is left?
- Yos: his badge of townieness has been fading since D1, but I don't think there has ever been serious rumblings as to him being a lynch candidate
- Vitamin: has weathered some serious suspicions, but is hard to read for players
- CDB: replacement station

CDB -- setting aside the fact that ABR is convinced the slot is scum -- is the best go-to third option as a practical matter. Yos and Vitamin are known quantities, we have a steady arc of their play, we can evaluate them based on other players actions, etc. CDB is none of those things.


So that nets us Poro, mathcam, and CDB.

[Albert B. Rampage]

That was excellent, Green Crayons.

[MrBuddyLee]

@Julz, let me know what you think about a couple of observations:

1) STD based his early-game play on the "theory" that MafiaSSK was a townie being attacked by a bunch of scum. He used that theory to indict LML and a few other players:

@STD, your belief that MafiaSSK is town is the lynchpin of your worldview. Can you please explain why you're so certain he's town?

I'm not certain he's town.

What do you think of the overall STD use of the SSK wagon D1? Does it look like scum talking about a wagon on town or scum attacking people on a wagon of fellow scum?

1.5) Also note the wagon STD attacked was:

petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons

Thus that leaves Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons, and LoudMouthLee. I believe one of them is likely to be mafia.

Would STD really home in on a small list of players with TWO scumpartners in it and try to focus attention there?

2) LML seemed very defensive and frustrated about getting in trouble for FOSing MafiaSSK D1:

Okay, I gave an FOS to MafiaSSK, and I never voted him. If you would like to run a meta on me (which you're MORE than welcome to), I FoS everyone. Hell, I'd FoS my mother if she said something that I don't agree with.

He tried to deflect the attention by switching from Tigris and SSK suspicions to suspecting a scumpartner:

MafiaSSK's response to Save The Dragon's post is similar to mine.
Vote: Save the Dragons

Would LML have downplayed his FOS if it was on scum, or would he be more likely to attack the people "defending" SSK?

3) STD wanted Boo lynched for finding LML townish:

In 466 Bookitty basically defends LML. (This is bad because LML is scum too but I know not everyone agrees with me yet so I won't dwell on that).

Would scum really set Day One up such that if one scumpartner (LML) gets lynched, another scumpartner (Boo) gets nailed D2?

4) LML declined to hop on the Bookitty wagon. Now that we know he was willing to attack a scumpartner aggressively to improve his later-game image, do we think LML would stay off the Boo-wagon end of Day One instead of pushing the lynch to save himself and look way better D2?

5) LML used the Natiwagon as his "village idiot" wagon of D1 in an analysis. Do we think LML, in the state of desperation he appeared to be in at the time, would use a wagon on scum as his village idiot wagon? Or did he pick a wagon on town with a lot of townies on it to use to boost his cred?

None of the above points are incredibly strong, but I think some of them lend evidence to support other observations. For example, Spyrex has been money with his reads, and the above supports Spy-town.

Hypothesis: Spyrex, GC, Porochaz, Bookitty, mathcam/SSK are likely town.

I'm still curious about the fact that everyone but Yos, VitR and me has voted mathcam/SSK at some point or another. Usually there's more resistance across the board to wagons on scum. It does bother me, however, that mathcam didn't give me an opinion of my STD case until prodded. Yos and VitR freely applauded the case but still found STD townish, as did many others (Sotty, PJ, undo, etc.)

[MrBuddyLee]

I tried to post the updated badwagon count in a rush before deadline, just missed the threadlock. Please take it with the usual caveats.

If Boo and mathcam town:
Albert: PJ1, (-LML), PJ2, Glork, cam, CES1, CES3, Sotty, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 8

Sotty

: *Boo*, (-LML), MBL, cam, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 6.5
Yos:undo, Glork, CES2, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 6
VitR: PJ1, PJ2, Glork, Sotty, (-STD3), (-STD4) 6

DGB

: (-LML), PJ2, UT1, UT2, Glork, cam, CES3, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 6

undo

: *Boo*, (-LML), Glork, SSK, (-STD3), (-STD4) 5.5

cam

: *Boo*, (-LML), UT2, Glork, CES3, Sotty, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 5.5

Bookitty

: PJ1, undo, SSK, cam, CES3, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 5
Poro: undo, Glork, SSK, (-STD3), (-STD4) 5
KK:, Glork, SSK, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4

PJ

: *Boo*, Glork, SSK, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4.5
chamber: (-LML), undo, *Boo*, Glork, cam, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 3.5

STD

: PJ1, *Boo*, SSK, cam, CES3, (-STD4) 3.5
Crayons: MBL, Glork, SSK, CES3, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 2

CES

: *Boo*, undo, (-LML), cam, *STD-D3* 2.5
NatiRex: (-LML), *Boo*, CES3, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 1.5

MBL

: undo 1


If Bookitty town cam scum:
Albert: PJ1, (-LML), PJ2, Glork, CES1, CES3, Sotty, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 7
VitR: PJ1, PJ2, Glork, Sotty, (-STD3), (-STD4) 6

Sotty

: *Boo*, (-LML), MBL, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 5.5

cam

: *Boo*, (-LML), UT2, Glork, CES3, Sotty, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 5.5

DGB

: (-LML), PJ2, UT1, UT2, Glork, CES3, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 5
Yos:undo, Glork, CES2, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 5

STD

: PJ1, *Boo*, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4.5

undo

: *Boo*, (-LML), Glork, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4.5
Poro: undo, Glork, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4

PJ

: *Boo*, Glork, (-STD3), (-STD4) 3.5

Bookitty

: PJ1, undo, CES3, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 3
chamber: (-LML), undo, *Boo*, Glork, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 2.5
KK:, Glork, (-STD3), (-STD4) 2

CES

: *Boo*, undo, (-LML), *STD-D3* 1.5
NatiRex: (-LML), *Boo*, CES3, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 1.5
Crayons: MBL, Glork, CES3, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 1

MBL

: undo 1


If Bookitty scum:
Albert: PJ1, (-LML), PJ2, Glork, CES1, CES3, Sotty, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 8
VitR: PJ1, PJ2, Glork, Sotty, (-STD3), (-STD4) 7
Yos:undo, Glork, CES2, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 7

DGB

: (-LML), PJ2, UT1, UT2, Glork, CES3, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 6
cam: *Boo*, (-LML), UT2, Glork, CES3, Sotty, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 5
Poro: undo, Glork, (-STD3), (-STD4) 5

Sotty

: *Boo*, (-LML), MBL, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 5

undo

: *Boo*, (-LML), Glork, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4
KK: , Glork, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4

STD

: PJ1, *Boo*, CES3, (-STD3), (-STD4) 4

Bookitty

: PJ1, undo, CES3, (-STD3), *STD-D4* 4
chamber: (-LML), undo, *Boo*, Glork, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 2
Crayons: MBL, Glork, CES3, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 2

MBL

: undo 2

CES

: *Boo*, undo, (-LML), *STD-D3*, (-STD4) 2

PJ

: *Boo*, (-STD3), (-STD4) 2
NatiRex: (-LML), *Boo*, CES3, Sotty, *STD-D3*, *STD-D4* 1

[MrBuddyLee]

I think Albert, Yos and VitR may be the last three scum. *fingers crossed*

[VitaminR]

Will be

V/LA

for the next few days (probably until Tuesday).

[mathcam]

Huh, I thought that I was going to be bandwagon-fodder the moment the gates opened, so I spent a little more time thinking about my own defense rather than who to go after next. So first, here's that:

I'd argue that the real knock any theory that has a STD-mathcam theory scmpair is my argument (which played heavily into my willingness to lynch STD despite my erroneous read on him) is that one of LML's scumlist {mathcam, STD, Sotty} had to be scum. Just think about how silly of a move it would be to postulate that one of three people were scum, when two of those people were on my scum team (and the third on almost no one's top scum list at the time). Even with the inevitable WIFOM argument that a scum

could

make this move, I think you'd have to agree that there was no reason for me to, and doing so was done at the detriment of the scum.

I'm not a big fan of DGB's "one of these two, one of these two, one of these two" arguments, at least when they come from the surety that one member of a bandwagon has to be scum. That said, I'll reiterate my unease with porochaz that I've been mentioning for weeks, and would not be upset at a porolynch. Given Yos's early-game point about STD not being afraid to pick fights with people, it's in hindsight somewhat notable that STD didn't seem to address porochaz almost at all.

MBL: I'm sorry, this is lazy. Can you remind me what the numbers and notation in your list means? A link is fine if you've explained elsewhere.

[mathcam]

I think Albert, Yos and VitR may be the last three scum. *fingers crossed*

Wait. Really? I'm not saying it's impossible (to the contrary, I'm rather intrigued), but this would have required some pretty good acting for ABR-Yos and some pretty good foresight from Yos-STD.