NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Bookitty]

@Undo:

I was swayed by Post 2218 and Post 2223.

I just did a reread on his ISO since then, though, and I have a couple of questions:

So I like the Sotty wagon still -- as we scramble to find the most approved of wagon, I think I would still be fine with VitR or CES. I personally don't think DGB is likely to be scum, just because of all of the outrageous plays she's made (e.g., most recently approving of the vig killing a townie). But PJ's conviction that she really could be scum and pulling these crazy plays is somewhat compelling. I think I'd be able to sleep at night after a DGB lynch too.

@mathcam:

Do you still think VitaminR is the most likely scum? (all others on the potential most approved of wagon list you gave are or were town.)

In Post 2172, MBL asked you why you avoided comment on his STD case since you had STD on your never-lynch list. You responded with: "Yeah, I probably should've done that. I guess I didn't think my input was necessary. I thought you made a pretty decent argument which I'll even admit to causing me to waver on my STD stance. Then he responded, and the response felt pretty good to me too. Net score: Slight town boost for you, maybe a slight scum boost for STD, but not enough to rock the foundation of my stance on either of you" in Post 2194.

I don't really understand the evolution of your read on STD. Can you explain that a bit more, please? Was it solely based on your "most likely scumteam" pairings?

I agree that chamber needs back away from defending DGB. Unless you're absolutely sure DGB is town -- if there's any doubt -- let DGB navigate her way through the conversation, even if it's unfair or a trap. You should be as excited to get an even better read on DGB (or Yos!) than you already have. Stopping this discussion has no benefit.

This seems to indicate that you are certain that Chamber is town. Are you?

[Juls]

At the lake. Will post later.

[mathcam]

I don't really understand the evolution of your read on STD. Can you explain that a bit more, please? Was it solely based on your "most likely scumteam" pairings?

I don't think there's been much to the evolution. I got a town read on him very early, and that maintained for the vast majority of the game. As the game's progressed, I've been getting more paranoid about my town reads, and MBL's post came at a good time for me to seriously question my stance on STD. He swayed me down from a solid town stance on STD, but then STD's rebuttal brought it back up to pretty solidly in the town camp. Whether or not MBL's seed of doubt contributed to my eventual willingness to lynch STD, I'm not sure, but the two principal forces there were the most likely scumteam pairings and the belief that one of {mathcam, STD, Sotty} had to be scum.

I agree that chamber needs back away from defending DGB. Unless you're absolutely sure DGB is town -- if there's any doubt -- let DGB navigate her way through the conversation, even if it's unfair or a trap. You should be as excited to get an even better read on DGB (or Yos!) than you already have. Stopping this discussion has no benefit.

This seems to indicate that you are certain that Chamber is town. Are you?

I guess what I meant was that regardless of chamber's alignment, I was asking him to butt out of the discussion by appealing to the argument that if he's pro-town, he should want to see this develop. I read an implicit "assuming you're pro-town" in my sentence there (as that's a little pedantic to write out each time you're discussing theory in-thread), but I see where you're getting that indication from. In any case, no, not at all. I'm not even sure I'd put him at townish.

@mathcam:

Do you still think VitaminR is the most likely scum? (all others on the potential most approved of wagon list you gave are or were town.)

I'm not sure. I'm working on re-developing all of my reads/stances again. The only thing worth reiterating right now is that the scum-pairings I precluded form my list involving STD were STD-DGB (yay for me), STD-Spyrex, STD-MBL, and STD-Yos. I'm not sure I have the faith in my convictions any more about that last one, but I think I'm pretty confident in saying that I would not be down for a Spyrex or MBL lynch today.

undo

: Why

would

you follow DGB's lynchplan? Because of the scumputer? I'm genuinely curious.

Also: Welcome, CDB! Definitely remember the name, though not if we played any games together.

[chamber]

I'm not even sure I'd put him at townish.

Not even townish? This smells wrong to me.

[Green Crayons]

I'm not even sure I'd put him at townish.

Well, I would like to see your explanation for this.

[mathcam]

Huh, didn't expect that comment to raise so many eyebrows. I'm aware that there's some pro-chamber sentiment floating around, but there's been a lot of that toward porochaz also that I've felt is unfounded, and there's always been this ABR-Chamber-VitR-CES-Porochaz clique thing (from playing together so much, not necessarily related to scumminess) happening that makes me uncomfortable. So I've been trying to ignore the vibes coming off that clique, and without it, I just don't see that much townly to find with respect to chamber. There's not a particularly strong stand against either STD or LML, and his defense of DGB is more anti-Yos than pro-DGB. Maybe someone else could point out why chamber is so obvtown? I'm just not getting it.

So just transcribing a few of my notes (please don't ignore them cause you are set in your reads)

255 - he sets up an if Vit is scum LML is town (one reason to suspect LML/Vit/Yos)
290 - comment about LML and Vit being buddies
289 thru 318- really light investigations of LML but puts vote on nati completely throwing aside all conversations with LML
379 - votes LML while retracting suspicion of Vit
381 - over the top declaration of STD as town
381-401 - lots of direct interactions between Yos/lml/std
433 - another comment of if LML is scum, Vit is town. See the reciprocal in 255

I agree that Yos-VitR is a pretty strong pairing early in the game, and these are good points. I'll be interested to see how your read on the develops a couple of thousand posts later. There's a pretty strong Yos-VitR clash, and I'd be interested to know if you thought it could be faked.

[Green Crayons]

It caught my eye because it's a feeling that I entertained a two game days ago, and, since then, has been resolved into likely town, will seriously reevaluate if chamber's still alive in end game.

I'm aware that there's some pro-chamber sentiment floating around, but there's been a lot of that toward porochaz also that I've felt is unfounded, and there's always been this ABR-Chamber-VitR-CES-Porochaz clique thing (from playing together so much, not necessarily related to scumminess) happening that makes me uncomfortable. So I've been trying to ignore the vibes coming off that clique, and without it, I just don't see that much townly to find with respect to chamber.

Apart from ABR's most recent "we knew CES because we've played together" spiel earlier today, how have you picked up a we're-all-town-together clique vibe from these five? I can think of a few examples of suspicions/votes that specifically cut against such a clique.

[Green Crayons]

Also, there's a wide gap between not even "townish" (your position) and "obvtown" (false alternative you made up).

[Green Crayons]

1.5) Also note the wagon STD attacked was:

petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons

Thus that leaves Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons, and LoudMouthLee. I believe one of them is likely to be mafia.

Would STD really home in on a small list of players with TWO scumpartners in it and try to focus attention there?

I think you have good points in this post except for the one I'm quoting. I don't know if there's any basis to believe that STD picked one or two scum partners to highlight attention on.

Further, if we accept that STD was attempting to look protown by attacking the wagon on (assuming for argument) town-mafiaSSK/mathcam, then STD would be required to pay attention to all people on said wagon, and not obviously leave out one player.

[mathcam]

Also, there's a wide gap between not even "townish" (your position) and "obvtown" (false alternative you made up).

When X expresses shock that Y doesn't find Z townish, it's not unreasonable to suspect that X finds Z more than just townish, so I don't think it was quite the false dichotomy you make it out to be. Also, I've never used the word obvtown in my life before this thread (I think), and have seen it used with a quite wide range of sureties as to whether or not the target was actually town. I may have used it wrong.

[mathcam]

Apart from ABR's most recent "we knew CES because we've played together" spiel earlier today, how have you picked up a we're-all-town-together clique vibe from these five? I can think of a few examples of suspicions/votes that specifically cut against such a clique.

No no, I specifically said it had nothing to do with alignment. There's been a

lot

of "We know each other, trust us" in this game.

[Green Crayons]

@Juls:

At the lake. Will post later.

I, too, am interested in seeing how your read on Yos develops as you continue through the game. I thought his strong anti-LML drumbeat throughout D1 played well in his favor as I was living the game (particularly immediately after LML's flip), but you appear to not view that as being an as-favorable quality in your after-the-fact review.

Is that correct, and I would be interested in any further thoughts you might have on that particular aspect of Yos's D1 play?

-----

@mathcam:

(1) Your perception of the reaction to your chamber-stance appears to be overblown. In 3580, your position "raise<d> so many eyebrows," and now in 3585 there is "shock" to your position. I mean, there were two people who responded: chamber himself, and me. chamber's response is a bit severe ("smells wrong"), but that's understandable because it's you commenting on him. My response is reads neutral, because it is neutral: I just want your insight as to the matter. I don't think the combination of chamber's and my posts constitute eyebrow raising and shock.

So, I'm commenting on this because you're being overly sensitive to your non-alignment-indicative position that chamber is a completely null read. Now that I have pointed that out, do you disagree? Care to explain? Thoughts/feelings/reactions?

(2)

I'm aware that there's some pro-chamber sentiment floating around, but there's been a lot of that toward porochaz also that I've felt is unfounded, and there's always been this ABR-Chamber-VitR-CES-Porochaz clique thing (from playing together so much, not necessarily related to scumminess) happening that makes me uncomfortable.

So I've been trying to ignore

the vibes

coming off that clique, and without it, I just don't see that much townly to find with respect to chamber.

If the clique's vibes have nothing to do with alignment, then I misunderstood what you were saying here. And, in light of 3585, I don't really understand what you're saying here. What are these "vibes"?

[Green Crayons]

addendum: "shock" was stated in 3584, not 3585, as a quick look up the page will reveal

[chamber]

Also, there's a wide gap between not even "townish" (your position) and "obvtown" (false alternative you made up).

When X expresses shock that Y doesn't find Z townish, it's not unreasonable to suspect that X finds Z more than just townish, so I don't think it was quite the false dichotomy you make it out to be. Also, I've never used the word obvtown in my life before this thread (I think), and have seen it used with a quite wide range of sureties as to whether or not the target was actually town. I may have used it wrong.

The use (or misuse) of obvtown by you is irrelevant. Your argument supports me not being obvtown, not me being 'not even townish'.

[mathcam]

To the contrary, I think this discussion is entirely semantic, and so is eminently relevant (at least insofar as any of this discussion is relevant). Don't you think you guys are being overly pedantic here? It raised eyebrows in the sense that in that there were two nearly immediate posts questioning how I came to the conclusion. It expressed shock in the sense that I read you as being surprised at my stance. My exact words were "I'm not even sure I'd put him at townish," which sounds to me much closer to "not being obvtown" than "chamber is not even townish" (the latter of which sounds to me rather anti-chamber). In any case, I think my follow-up paragraph makes more explicitly clear what my actual stance on chamber is -- I doubt there's much to be gleaned from probing deeper into the semantic issues, but I suppose I'm game if you are.

[mathcam]

If the clique's vibes have nothing to do with alignment, then I misunderstood what you were saying here. And, in light of 3585, I don't really understand what you're saying here. What are these "vibes"?

I'm not sure I have a way of expressing this without antagonizing the group involved, but there's repeatedly been comments of the form "When it comes to us, we know best." I am skeptical of their claims to be able to read one another, their definitive and retroactively-vindicated proclamations on CES notwithstanding, and tire of the implicit (and some times explicit) refrain that people who don't know them have less valid opinions. There's even an extent to which I think PJ and OGML suffered from disagreeing too much with the clique. So my original quote was that there seemed to be a lot of pro-chamber sentiment coming from expressions of that sort, and I don't put a lot of weight into such expressions, at least when not backed up by something more definitive.

[mathcam]

My response is reads neutral, because it is neutral

It does not read neutral to me. The "Well" at the start of that sentence carries with it (to me) a sense of surprise, or at least skepticism.

You thought you were responding neutral, and I was being over-defensive in response. I thought you were over-reacting to my stance, and being rationally explicit in elaborating my stance. The wonders of communication.

your non-alignment-indicative position that chamber is a completely null read

Completely null-read is uncharitable. My elaboration makes it more explicit that I don't have anything particularly towny in chamber's column, and that there are even some points against him. I don't think this elevates him to the top of the scumminess pack, but it's in notable contrast to at least several people who seem pretty convinced of his townliness. If I have to boil it down to a quick phrase, I think "at most neutral" better describes my stated stance than "complete nullread."

[Green Crayons]

Recognizing that I can be pedantic, I don't think that this conversation is about semantics. (I don't really care about your "obvtown" comment, it was an off the cuff observation about a probably off the cuff use of the term.)

- I'm trying to understand your position w/r/t chamber because I am comfortable with thinking that you are town, and I thus want to delve into where you're coming from to see if it has merit or if there's something you've missed or if we're just on a point of disagreement.

- That led to your comment about there being a clique. <I had a response here that I deleted in light of your immediate follow-up post.> I now understand what you're saying. I don't recall there being much of that "just trust me due to experience" to justify players' town reads of chamber? (shrug)

- Word usage is very important, because it reveals how a player perceives another player's actions. I think your word usage is disproportionate to the chamber/GC reaction, which makes you look defensive. Which can be scummy. However, with your history of being suspected, it's not unreasonable to attribute such defensiveness to town, and so I wanted your reaction as to my observations. Having them, I now understand your justification for using those terms.

[Green Crayons]

Completely null-read is uncharitable. My elaboration makes it more explicit that I don't have anything particularly towny in chamber's column, and that there are even some points against him. I don't think this elevates him to the top of the scumminess pack, but it's in notable contrast to at least several people who seem pretty convinced of his townliness. If I have to boil it down to a quick phrase, I think "at most neutral" better describes my stated stance than "complete nullread."

I equate neutral and null in terms of alignment descriptors. Language!

But, more importantly: I looked at your posts, and I don't really see what points against chamber you have made.

This?

There's not a particularly strong stand against either STD or LML, and his defense of DGB is more anti-Yos than pro-DGB.

[chamber]

If the clique's vibes have nothing to do with alignment, then I misunderstood what you were saying here. And, in light of 3585, I don't really understand what you're saying here. What are these "vibes"?

I'm not sure I have a way of expressing this without antagonizing the group involved, but there's repeatedly been comments of the form "When it comes to us, we know best." I am skeptical of their claims to be able to read one another, their definitive and retroactively-vindicated proclamations on CES notwithstanding, and tire of the implicit (and some times explicit) refrain that people who don't know them have less valid opinions. There's even an extent to which I think PJ and OGML suffered from disagreeing too much with the clique. So my original quote was that there seemed to be a lot of pro-chamber sentiment coming from expressions of that sort, and I don't put a lot of weight into such expressions, at least when not backed up by something more definitive.

ABR is the loudest and most self confident member of the 'clique'. If you ignore his involvement, I think you'll find that our arguments (at the very least my arguments) were not in the form 'I know him well he's town' but 'I know him well, that's a bad argument against him/her because they do that as town' And the 2nd is perfectly valid (and was ultimately right in both the case of CES and DGB).

CES calling me obvTown is something that doesn't fall inside that, but he's right and knows me particularly well, as I know him. Anyone that knows our dynamic SHOULD just trust his word, but I haven't brought it up before because I think doubt is healthy.

TLDR: I think you are making this clique thing out to be bigger than it is/was?

[MrBuddyLee]

What do those numbers make you think?

Welp, you'd expect scum to have better numbers than the average townie because they are constantly managing their numbers. Maybe there'll be one or two bold scum who have the stylistic cover to bomb the town with anti-town votes and get away with it. (Albert) But for the most part I'd expect to find scum around the median. I think you'll be much more likely to find scum at the top of the scoresheet than near the bottom, because scum know if they place too many pro-town votes they're bound to get PoEd.

In general though I also think it's important to keep these numbers visible and to lynch people who vote incorrectly. That policy discourages scum from voting a straight town slate. Caveat: need to take into account flips that haven't happened yet.. all three of chamber, CES and DGB looked like shit on the badwagoncount until more flips happened. Now CES looks solid and chamber/DGB are closer to the middle. And obviously, the Spyrex drumbeat of late-yesterday is quashed by his low placement on this list.

[MrBuddyLee]

Watching LML/Yos/STD/VitR/Albert interact has felt somewhat like a kabuki play. I'm trying to balance a few thoughts in my head with regards to Yos and VitR especially. They both definitely had something to do with placing the focus on LML Day One. Typically, you'd see that as protown.

But so did STD.. and in fact, one of the reasons STD was caught is because he placed TOO much focus and certainty around LML and yet shifted that focus at critical times. So how do we differentiate healthy assault on LML from sketchy assault on LML? I think the best ways are to look at:

1) Timing.. did the player ramp suspicion of LML/others up and down at times beneficial to scum?
2) Proportionality.. can the player's suspicions reasonably and genuinely be attributed to in-game information?
3) Gut.. does your spidey sense tingle when you hear the player talk about LML?

We can do the same thing about STD, but so many players (Sotty/PJ/undo/cam/Yos/VitR/Boo) seemed to follow the same pattern on STD. "His tone looks super townish! Still townish day two! I like MBL's case but still think STD's townish! OK maybe he could be scum / nah I still think DGB is scum."

Back to this in a sec.. got sidetracked reading KK/OGML.

[SpyreX]

I'm all for analysis, but the conclusions still concern me. That 'kabuki play' still doesn't pan out the way I look at it.

But, of that group Albert is never, ever ever getting a vote from me.
VitR makes me pinch my eyes but I still hold that initial D1 call was spot on and not in a "scum knowing LML was scum" way.
I could really do a full reread on just Yos. His is still a gut town call and I really want the case there laid out succinctly the other way.

I want OGMLCDBKKOMGBBQ slot dead. Dead dead.

With the knowledge of STD being scum and DGB being town, look at yesterday again. Look at the fireballs based on soooo much nothing he was shooting out

[MrBuddyLee]

Summary of KK/OGML's play:
* Early impressions--Sotty, LML, VitR, poro, Boo scum. gave some reasons, including a good reason to suspect Seol and not PJ re: SSK.

* Voted LML under Glork-pressure to make it 8-7 Bookitty.

* Small post attacking LML 16 hrs before deadline
* D2,

goes after DGB

,

attacks people who are attacking PJ

.
* Gives thoughtful analysis of the KK-wagon of D1. Switches to Glorkwagon, is #3.
* Refuses to see the possibility that Glork is town, but adamant that PJ is town.
*

Main reason for voting Glork: glork was anti-LML lynch pro-PJ lynch.

* Says don't lynch Spyrex because he's good town if town.

* Says mathcam wagon is really bad.
* Replaces out
*

Doesn't want to lynch Sotty two days before deadline, Sotty has 5 votes

*

Votes DGB day before deadline

,

tells Albert DGB is manipulating him into leading the Sotty lynch

* Reads GC as town
* Switches vote from DGB to Yos when Albert asks
* reading chamber and Yos as scumbuddies, accusing chamber of Yos-defense
* back to DGB when Yoswagon doesnt happen
* "No way in hell are Yos and VitR scum together, ABR"
*

Thinks DGB was deflecting for LML all D1

*

STD

and

CES solid townreads

, chamber and DGB are at this point much stronger scumreads than Yos
* Either VitR is bussing LML, or Yos is chainsaw defending LML, but not both.
* re: chamber: "This guy literally refuses to give a read on DGB all game and then uses that as a reason to oppose lynching her"
* "Pretty fucking convenient that you've positioned yourself to never be able to actively suspect DGB then, huh?"
* Thinks he sees VitR pushing the counterwagon to DGB D2 (Glork) . +VitR suspicions.
* "90% of the posts bitching about the quality of the masons' posts (especially after they claim) is coming from scum. Can't call them scum anymore, but still need to discredit their reads." note: this is softly encouraging people to follow the masons, who have been wrongish.
* Scumteam call, final answer: DGB, chamber, VitR, mathcam Solid townreads: {PJ, undo, sotty}, prozac, CES, ABR, crayons, STD

* "I'm very anti CES lynch"

* "I think CES is the townie that both VitR and chamber buddied quite successfully."
* "DGB flat out refuses to justify her leaving VitR out of her "people who could have bussed LML" pool"

* Keeps asking people HOW the fuck they can read DGB as town.

* Incredulous that Albert now suspects him.
* "PJ is the only one making sense"
* Really desperately wants DGB lynched, so frustrated he can't make it happen "If UT were here I feel like the DGB lynch wouldn't be failing. GC and STD I think you can swing it back to DGB by moving your votes."
* "DGB I hope you feel personally guilty over using this as a scum tactic."
* "VitaminR is also still so, so scum."
* "ABR, kindly shut the fuck up for about 24 hours and let this thread breathe without you. The town will be better for it."
* "Hilarious to me that ABR + the people I've namedropped as DGB's most likely scumpartners are the only ones to vote so far today for anyone but DGB. "

note: seems REALLY internally sure that there's a scum conspiracy against him

* "chamber why were you willing to vote DGB at deadline yesterday but now she is off your lynch list yet again?"
* "This is still just the most fucking convenient position to take on a scumpartner of all time and I can't get over it"
* ". Can you pretend she's someone else and just look at her voting pattern for a second and try to conclude whether you'd find random player x with that voting pattern scummy or townie?"
* "ABR I wish I could see the look on your face after this game ends and you realize how fucking well the scum played you the whole time"
*

re: STD: "the scummiest people in the game continue trying to get him lynched."

Summary:
Placed a critical vote on LML D1 when he easily could have deferred or voted Bookitty instead (had already laid groundwork for Seol suspicions)

Found Glork suspect for being pro-LML anti-PJ, which is somewhat reasonable, but refused to be convinced by argument against.

Took the wrong side of the DGB-STD situation but seemed genuinely convinced that there was a scum conspiracy actively working to defeat his correct opinion. Seems incredulous that so many people refuse to lynch obvScum DGB.

Defended against the Sotty, CES, Spyrex, PJ lynches.

Please tell me what I'm missing and how this record makes the slot obvscum. Is OGML some kind of known master of faking outrage and conspiracy theory? OGML looks genuinely infuriated to the point of replacing out at STD (6) DGB (4). To some extent his suspicions and associations follow a logical pattern.. he was just plain wrong.

If he's scum, that was a pretty virtuoso performance, and KK should be shot by his scumpartners for burying LML unnecessarily D1.

[Sotty7]

Unvote

I have to say MBL makes a compelling case for mathcam town.

Your willingness to lynch StD certainly speaks in your favor, but I'm not convinced it rules you out. And I think the case on CDB is pretty weak.

But, don't worry, the lynch I want today is Yos.

Vote: Yosarian2

Pretty much agree here expect maybe the yos vote. But.. Well I'm basically running out of places to put my vote.

I need to look more at Yos. Juls raised some good points both here and in our night topic.

Still think ABR is town.