Newbie 1517: Crossroads Mafia (Game Over)

[VictorDeAngelo]

I doubt we have a scumteam that didn't submit. I think a role prevented the kill and we should massclaim today.

[Billi bilaði]

I don't like any of the three votes that followed me on Doogal. There was plenty time for some more discussions.
Still, I would want to focus on Glass and Shaddowes from those three votes. I think the hammer vote is the least suspect of those three.
Also, Malakittens is still high on my suspect list. She's playing like an agressive mafiosos would, with tight focus on RachMarie, and (to a point) me.

Victor, please give odds for why we should massclaim.
The mafia can narrow the setup to 2 or 4 possibilities, based on if they have a roleblocker or not.
If they don't have a roleblocker, and they sent in a kill (which is most likely), then they can narrow it down to 3 setups.

If we massclaim, then the mafia knows the order in which they have to kill us to take out either jailkeeper or doctor first (if they exist).

We can be pretty sure that we have 2 active town roles (as setup B is not in action if the mafia sent in a kill).
That would give us 2 mafiosos, 2 PRs and 4 VTs.
A massclaim would narrow the search of the day down to 6 suspects (unless we have double claims - which I think is unlikely as it would be too much of a chance for them).

So, what do others say? Would the town benefit from a massclaim, or is the chance to high that we neuter the PR's?

[VictorDeAngelo]

Assuming the scumteam submitted we have four possible options.
For those who haven't seen it before, the setup is here:

Spoiler:

Setup Rules

• This game uses the Matrix6 semi-open setup. That means that the existing roles will be chosen using
  1
  row or column from the following table:
  
  

  • 	A	B	C
    1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
    2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
    3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

  
  All empty spaces will be filled with Vanilla Townies and Mafia Goons until there are 7 Town-aligned players and 2 Mafia-aligned players.

All possible Role PMs follow:

Spoiler: Role PMs:

Vanilla Townie

:

Welcome, X. You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

Powers: You have no powers except your brain and your vote.

Win Condition: You win with the Town when all the Mafia members are dead and at least one town member is alive.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name.

Town Jailkeeper

:

Welcome, X. You are the

Town Jailkeeper

.

Powers: Each night you may PM me the name of a player you wish to target. If successful, that player will be unable to perform any night actions and will be protected from night kills.

Win Condition: You win with the Town when all the Mafia members are dead and at least one town member is alive.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name.

Town Cop

:

Welcome, X. You are the

Town Cop

.

Powers: Each night you may PM me the name of a player you wish to target. If successful, you will be told whether that player is ‘Mafia’ or ‘Not Mafia’; if unsuccessful, you will be told ‘No Result.’

Win Condition: You win with the Town when all the Mafia members are dead and at least one town member is alive.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name.

Town Doctor

:

Welcome, X. You are the

Town Doctor

.

Powers: Each night you may PM me the name of a player you wish to target. If successful, that player will be protected from being killed that night.

Win Condition: You win with the Town when all the Mafia members are dead and at least one town member is alive.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name.

Town 1-Shot Bulletproof

:

Welcome, X. You are the

Town 1-Shot Bulletproof

.

Powers: The first night you are targeted for a kill, it will be unsuccessful. You will not be informed that this ability has activated.

Win Condition: You win with the Town when all the Mafia members are dead and at least one town member is alive.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name.

Town Tracker

:

Welcome, X. You are the

Town Tracker

.

Powers: Each night you may PM me the name of a player you wish to target. You will be told whom that player targeted during the night phase, if anyone.

Win Condition: You win with the Town when all the Mafia members are dead and at least one town member is alive.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name.

Mafia Goon

:

Welcome, X. You are a

Mafia Goon

, along with your teammate Y, a

Mafia Goon/Roleblocker

.

Powers: Each night you and Y may communicate in this PT. Additionally, one of you may perform the factional kill. The choice of kill may be sent via PM or bolded in the PT; you must designate which of you is performing the kill. If I receive multiple kill submissions I will honor the one I receive closest
to the deadline.

Win Condition: You win when all members of the town are dead or nothing can prevent this from happening.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name.

Mafia Roleblocker

:

Welcome, X. You are a

Mafia Roleblocker

, along with your teammate Y, a

Mafia Goon

.

Powers: Each night you and Y may communicate in this PT. Each night you may PM me the name of a player you wish to target. If that player submits a night action it will be unsuccessful. Additionally, one of you may perform the factional kill. The choice of kill may be sent via PM or bolded in the PT; you must designate which of you is performing the kill. If I receive multiple kill submissions I will honor the one I receive closest to the deadline.

Win Condition: You win when all members of the town are dead or nothing can prevent this from happening.

The game thread is here

Please confirm via PM with your role name

Which give four options as to why there was a NK.

1) They targetted the BP townie.
2) They targetted the doc target.
3) They targetted a jailed player.
4) The scum performing the NK was jailed.

If it's column A we don't know for sure whether 1,3 or 4 happened but we do get some information and at least two confirmed townies to remove.

It can't be column B unless the scum submitted a NK.

If it's column C then the Doc claiming clears themselves plus the person they protected which again give us two confirmed townie (we can let the tracker decide whether to claim but if they don't have a result last night then I say they don't)

If it's row 1, the jailkeeper knows who he or she jailed and that person is either scum or the target. If the jailkeeper targetted someone scummy last night they should definitely claim today!

If it's row 2 then we have the doc and cop claim their results and potentially have two PRs who are clear, the doc target who is clear and the cop result who is either scum or town. If there are no crosses we could potentially know the alignment of 4 players.

If it's row 3 we know the BP is town and the tracker is town. The tracker result will be relevent only if he or she saw anyone targetting anyone else.

So actually there is little benefit in forcing a tracker claim straight away. But we should have a partial claim of Doc, jk, cop and BP along with who they targetted. The biggest risk is that we're in column A but if we are in column C or any of the rows I think the right move is to massclaim (partially anyway) today.

[VictorDeAngelo]

It's also worth remembering that two vt have already claimed so the pool of possible PRs could be as low as four players which give them a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight anyway.

[Malakittens]

We shouldn't mass claim.

Victor is either really bad town for suggesting it or rolefishy scum.

Victor have you ever played in newbies before and suggested this idea?

@Billi:

I'm an aggressive player in general. Algnment would have nothing to do with how aggressive I am or am not.

[VictorDeAngelo]

We shouldn't mass claim.

Victor is either really bad town for suggesting it or rolefishy scum.

Victor have you ever played in newbies before and suggested this idea?

No, but then again I've not been in a newbie game when there hasn't been a night 1 kill.

[Malakittens]

I been in a quite of lot of these scenarios. Massclaim was never the best idea because you just chalk up a free PR to scum.

[VictorDeAngelo]

Fine, if your against a massclaim then do something useful. Who do you think other than Rach's role is scum?

[VictorDeAngelo]

And everyone else should say whether they are for or against some sort of massclaim in their next post.

[Malakittens]

Fine, if your against a massclaim then do something useful. Who do you think other than Rach's role is scum?

I been pretty damn transparent about my reads this game.

Rach and Billi are probably scum.
You're a scum lean.
Anycorn is town.
Glass is null.

[Glass]

@glass:

also how do you know it wasn't a BP.
why did you auto jump to a doc or a JK?

This is such a scummy question that I am tempted to vote for you. Is there any way that this could be a slip because I KNOW that there is no BP?

Billi, that last post really makes me doubt my townread on you...

I don't like any of the three votes that followed me on Doogal. There was plenty time for some more discussions.

Still, I would want to focus on Glass and Shaddowes from those three votes. I think the hammer vote is the least suspect of those three.

First, there was NOT plenty of time for discussion. Even if there was plenty of time for discussion, it was the hammer vote which would have robbed us of that

non-existent

discussion time. If you think that our votes are scummy not because it shut off discussion but for some other reason, do go into detail.

So, what do others say? Would the town benefit from a massclaim, or is the chance to high that we neuter the PR's?

No massclaim.

[Glass]

I guess I will elaborate a bit on the Mala question.

The answer is one of the following:
1. I am BP and was not shot
2. I am not BP and I overlooked that possibility

I am not going to tell you which is it, and it is a scummy question to ask because you know those are the only 2 explanations (and is essentially rolefishing to see if I messed up because I am BP or not)

[shaddowez]

I guess I will elaborate a bit on the Mala question.

The answer is one of the following:
1. I am BP and was not shot
2. I am not BP and I overlooked that possibility

I am not going to tell you which is it, and it is a scummy question to ask because you know those are the only 2 explanations (and is essentially rolefishing to see if I messed up because I am BP or not)

Actually, there's a third option, which is even more likely than the first. You don't know when your activity was used, as per the Role PM.

Billi keeps getting higher and higher on my scum list. When I placed the L-1 vote, there was less than 24 hours left. That is not "plenty of time". The massclaim discussion also raises a flag for me. We're on day 2, and were lucky enough to not have a kill last night for whichever reason it was. Even assuming a mislynch and a kill tonight, that still leaves us at a 2:1 ratio tomorrow, and scum has to guess at a PR instead of pretty much guaranteeing one.

Until something changes my mind, VOTE: Billi

[Billi bilaði]

Glass and shaddowez are correct in the sense that at the pace this game is played there was maybe not plenty of time - BUT - at the pace a last day should be played by town, there was plenty of time. You have 2 weeks advanced notice for last day, so - there was plenty of time.

PS: I think you are a good vote candidate, shaddowez, as the next to last vote on the mislynch:

VOTE: shaddowez

[penguin_alien]

Vote Count 2.01:

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch!

Clusk92 (L-5):
Billi bilaoi (L-4): shaddowez
Glass (L-5):
shaddowez (L-4): Billi bilaoi
acryon (L-5):
VictorDeAngelo (L-5):
RachMarie (L-5)
Malakittens (L-5):

Not voting: Clusk92, Glass, acryon, VictorDeAngelo, RachMarie, Malakittens

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-08-09 20:56:55)

Replacing RachMarie...

[acryon]

I'm back now after the weekend.

Wow, that was...unexpected. I had to read and re-read these comments again to really get much here.
For what it's worth, I am still firm on Rach being scum, but I'm going to take a look at others so we can get some more out of them.

Shaddowz: You think the massclaim talk from Billi is scummy, but he was actually providing reasons against massclaiming, while Victor was supporting it. So why would you vote for him? This vote seems really really weak actually.

Billi: You had your vote on Rach, but switched it to Doogal because of his suspicious slip-up, which, to me just looked like a clear accident. Especially online, I would imagine it is actually far more common for townies to make mistakes than mafia, because you have a facade to keep up with as mafia. So I didn't like that vote at all.


My reads as of now are:

Clusk: Lean-scum

*He was already on my scum list, and he hasn't posted in over a week. So it actually is possible that he is scum and missed submission. I think we need to hear from him ASAP.

Mala - Town
I agree with most of your reads, and you was one of the people, along with Doogal(town), and myself(town), that voted for Rach.

Victor - Town
I don't agree at all with massclaiming, especially given my comment on Clusk above. That being said, I do see why you could think it was a good idea given this oversight. Your actions still read mostly town to me, even though I almost wholly disagree with your reads, especially given the strong scumread on Doogal.

Shadowz - Null/Lean-scum
I'd like to see a list of your updated reads on everyone. At this point, I haven't really gotten to hear much from you outside of a couple votes I disagreed with.

Billi - Null
Billi is really tough to evaluate. I agree with the reasoning behind the vote on Shadowz, especially given your recent vote on you which was really bad IMO. A decent mix of town actions and scum actions that I don't know scum would actually make. Victor was the first vote on Doogal, but your vote and reasoning started the train that led to us lynching a townie.

Glass - Null
You seem to have a pretty strong scum-read on Mala, as you have been questioning her comments and reads quite a bit in her time here. Massclaiming would be bad, especially given the great uncertainty of format, so I like the opposition to it from you. I don't agree with the read, but could you maybe summarize it as a whole?

[Billi bilaði]

...Billi: You had your vote on Rach, but switched it to Doogal because of his suspicious slip-up, which, to me just looked like a clear accident. Especially online, I would imagine it is actually far more common for townies to make mistakes than mafia, because you have a facade to keep up with as mafia. So I didn't like that vote at all.

It was more of a frustration than an opportunity vote, and I expected a bit of discussion and then a RachMarie lynch.
But, this playout might give us some important clues in the endgame - I hope.

...
My reads as of now are:
...

No RachMarie read? Probably because she's still strong scum in your book?

[acryon]

...Billi: You had your vote on Rach, but switched it to Doogal because of his suspicious slip-up, which, to me just looked like a clear accident. Especially online, I would imagine it is actually far more common for townies to make mistakes than mafia, because you have a facade to keep up with as mafia. So I didn't like that vote at all.

It was more of a frustration than an opportunity vote, and I expected a bit of discussion and then a RachMarie lynch.
But, this playout might give us some important clues in the endgame - I hope.

I can buy that.

...
My reads as of now are:
...

No RachMarie read? Probably because she's still strong scum in your book?

I should have listed her in my summary, but yeah at the top of my post I said I still have her as definite scum.

[Glass]

You seem to have a pretty strong scum-read on Mala, as you have been questioning her comments and reads quite a bit in her time here. Massclaiming would be bad, especially given the great uncertainty of format, so I like the opposition to it from you. I don't agree with the read, but could you maybe summarize it as a whole?

It's not actually the case that I have a strong scum-read on Mala, I am very on the fence with her. I thought that TSO was town and I can definitely see possible town reasons in her postings (which I will refrain from going into at this point), but her reads are so drastically different than mine (at least, yesterday they were) that I want to know where these reads are coming from and what I may be missing.

Actually, there's a third option, which is even more likely than the first. You don't know when your activity was used, as per the Role PM.

You are indeed correct.

[Malakittens]

Will be here after work. Concert was great. Should have brought a camera . Ran out of memory so I deleted all my apps on my phone. I feel so alone. I'm so skype less ):

[shaddowez]

Acryon

- I have previously listed my reasons for believing Billi to be scum, and had actually been voting for him until towards end of day D1. His latest post was just an additional reason for me, not the main reason for my vote.

If we massclaim, then the mafia knows the order in which they have to kill us to take out either jailkeeper or doctor first (if they exist).

You are correct - this quote does appear that Billi is arguing against a mass claim.

We can be pretty sure that we have 2 active town roles (as setup B is not in action if the mafia sent in a kill).
That would give us 2 mafiosos, 2 PRs and 4 VTs.
A massclaim would narrow the search of the day down to 6 suspects (unless we have double claims - which I think is unlikely as it would be too much of a chance for them).

So, what do others say? Would the town benefit from a massclaim, or is the chance to high that we neuter the PR's?

This, in the same post, does not. He outright says that claiming would narrow the search. How is that arguing against the massclaim? While he does ask for other's opinions, that reads to me like he's saying he thinks it's a good idea.

I have some stuff I need to take care of right now, but I will have a reads list up tonight.

PS: I think you are a good vote candidate, shaddowez, as the next to last vote on the mislynch:

Billi

- Are you saying all scum has to do to avoid your radar is make sure to vote earlier on the wagon? This reasoning for voting me makes no sense whatsoever.

[penguin_alien]

Not_Mafia replaces RachMarie

[Not_Mafia]

Hi everyone. This is an egopost. I will catch up later today

[Billi bilaði]

Re. post 270:

shaddowez, you had me at null read on day one.
You're first vote is on me in post 47, then you move to Victor in 72 (not so long after) and to Mala in post 209.
You jump back to me briefly in post 216 before putting L-1 on Doogal.
So, I don't seem to be such a clear target for you on day one as you try to point out.
You only give an official mafia-read on me on day 2.

Yes, I put pros and cons for massclaim on the table for discussion, but I didn't claim - so I wasn't all that for it.
This is my second game on site, so of course I ask others for opinions, and as it turns out, we have an experienced player that has experience with this situation here.
So... you're fishing in murky waters.

Yes, as you noticed on day 1, Victor never appeared on my radar! ... Not!
Now, Victor was first on the wagon, and he had my vote for most of day 1.
I was second on the wagon, and as I've read my role-post I'm not on my radar.
Then came Glass and you, and put you both high on the notice board for that -
and the only voter I want to put on the back-burner is the Lynch-voter - which I put to L-1 near the end of day 1.
So, run that by me again who on the wagon that lynched Doogal didn't get on my radar?

[Billi bilaði]

@MOD: It's been 9 days since Clusk92 was active. Any news?