NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[ChannelDelibird]

Didn't get that time over the weekend to read but this coming week is nice and clear for me so tomorrow I'll be reading what I can, posting initial thoughts, and we'll roll from there. Appreciate your patience.

[MrBuddyLee]

@Poro

, wtfman? Your world just got rocked by your top suspect being the doctor and the guy you trusted for two months being scum. And all you post since daybreak is:

Please keep posting and reading (Julz). People are interested in your opinions and it would be useful to have one confirmed town in the game that is actually, you know, confirmed giving opinions.

Your thoughts on STD/DGB and related fallout please.


How did you manage to go for so long without commenting on STD? Here's the only thing you said about him all game as far as I can tell:

Basically there are currently two trains of thought, one in which DGB and ABR and others have STD as scum, and another where I and OGML and others think DGB is scum.

Incredibly, you STILL didn't manage to state explicitly what you thought about STD.. but I suppose it was implied?

I just skimmed your PBPA and I'm less convinced of your towniness than I was the last time I read it. I need to read it again more carefully to see whether it feels like you went into it with a preconceived notion that you needed to find LML suspect.

You say things like: " LML reiterated the weak reasoning" "another poor vote from LML" "it just seems so arbitrary" "Post 399 by LML makes me no happier with him" "LML's point 1 is simply wrong. Others have said it." "It's not the VCA thats particularly scummy, its the of combining that with anything else and the conclusions he comes to."

All of those are examples of where you fail to give reasons. Why is it weak reasoning? Why is it a poor vote? Why is it arbitrary? Why are you no happier with him? Why is the point wrong? What is the "anything else" and the "conclusions" that make LML scummy?

Struggling to find reasons to find you townish, Poro. Help me out here.

[mathcam]

TLDR: I think you are making this clique thing out to be bigger than it is/was?

Almost certainly. It was a nagging thing in the back of my head, and putting it to words makes it sound much grander than I believe it to be.

I equate neutral and null in terms of alignment descriptors. Language!

Okay, fair enough. To clarify, I took your implication of nullread to mean that I hadn't thought at all about chamber, wheres I intended neutral in the sense of "There are pros and cons, but about the same amount of each, so they balance each other out." Since I haven't been putting a lot of faith in my actual reads this game, the fact that chamber fairs poorly when compared against the known wagons is probably the only strike against him I can make. So yes, that was my only point, and I agree it is lacking in depth.

Looking forward to reading MBL's most recent posts, which I have not yet done.

[Porochaz]

@Poro

, wtfman? Your world just got rocked by your top suspect being the doctor and the guy you trusted for two months being scum. And all you post since daybreak is:

Please keep posting and reading (Julz). People are interested in your opinions and it would be useful to have one confirmed town in the game that is actually, you know, confirmed giving opinions.

Your thoughts on STD/DGB and related fallout please.

I am in a difficult position at the moment, I won't deny that my interactions with DGB made me tunnelled, I did try a little with ABR who was also the major poster. But it is obvious that in regards to DGB at least, I was very wrong. There needs to be some more content from myself in regards to other players, and I need to address other issues in regards to this game. I'm not posting when I need to because, well it's a daunting task. I'll be honest, my focus was on DGB that I kind of drowned everything else out. I know there was a whole yosarian thing, but don't ask me to explain the specifics of it because I won't be able to tell you.

I got the impression that a lot of it was ABR causing chaos, and starting wagons and lighting fires just for the sake of it and my choice was to ignore it all and focus on the one person I was sure about.

Which is an issue now because I was completely wrong about everything. In my scenario of this game, STD was town. He had to be. His early game posts seemed to come from a town place. He was vocally against LML, he had been a pretty ardent supporter of the DGB wagon. His thought processes to me were clearer to see than some (one of my towntells) and it matched some of my own. Even when he was being run up I was thinking that we were making a lot of assumptions based on iffy maths. I couldn't see a reason to vote him.

So yeah, I don't have much to say right now, cause I don't really know what to say. I will have something to say, but its going to take some serious rereading for me to be able to get a grip on this game.

[mathcam]

Okay, I've been doing some rereading. I have two quick questions first:

1) Does the STD-as-scum revelation give any more meaning to the fact that he killed the ABR-Yos fight early when hammering CES? I can't help but wonder if he thought one of his scumbuddies was looking bad, and decided to put an end to it.

2) MBL: What distinguishes chamber and porochaz to you? To me, they're almost interchangeable this game, save for DGB.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I think it's gotta be CDB or Porochaz today, one or the other.

[SpyreX]

Placed a critical vote on LML D1 when he easily could have deferred or voted Bookitty instead (had already laid groundwork for Seol suspicions)

Found Glork suspect for being pro-LML anti-PJ, which is somewhat reasonable, but refused to be convinced by argument against.

Took the wrong side of the DGB-STD situation but seemed genuinely convinced that there was a scum conspiracy actively working to defeat his correct opinion. Seems incredulous that so many people refuse to lynch obvScum DGB.

Defended against the Sotty, CES, Spyrex, PJ lynches.

Please tell me what I'm missing and how this record makes the slot obvscum. Is OGML some kind of known master of faking outrage and conspiracy theory? OGML looks genuinely infuriated to the point of replacing out at STD (6) DGB (4). To some extent his suspicions and associations follow a logical pattern.. he was just plain wrong.

If he's scum, that was a pretty virtuoso performance, and KK should be shot by his scumpartners for burying LML unnecessarily D1.

I even looked back and I'm not seeing it.

KK's vote:

I think LoudmouthLee is pretty scummy. petroleumjelly doesn't seem scummy. Just getting started on analyzing BooKitty.

So, VOTE: LoudmouthLee for now.

Votecount

LoudmouthLee (6) -- Green Crayons, Yosarian2, petroleumjelly, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, Kublai Khan
Kublai Khan (3) -- MrBuddyLee, Glork, DrippingGoofball
Bookitty (8) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, Untrod Tripod, mathcam, undo, CrashTextDummie
petroleumjelly (3) -- LoudmouthLee, Bookitty, VitaminR
Porochaz (1) -- inHimshallibe
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Albert B. Rampage

Not voting: Nobody
22 alive, 12 to lynch.

If we put on our scum KK hat, there's nothing wrong with that at all. That's not a critical vote on LML. That's a placeholder that if things go tits up at least looks good but the entire vibrations at that point were Boo getting lynched. The only thing better than a murder is keeping your hands clean of it.

Interestingly enough, that same page:

In post 809, Kublai Khan wrote:
I'm writing stuff. Calm down Glork.

Still haven't seen it.

vote: KK

Will try to get back here for tomorrow, but please be aware that all posts will be done through iPhone. It should be very interesting.

I need to go back and do a deeper eyeball at LML, but something tells me this was wink wink nudge nudge scumbros right here.

----

The other one is that I think that hate is faked and the goal yesterday wasn't "Get DGB lynched" it was "Get not STD" lynched.

[MrBuddyLee]

If we put on our scum KK hat, there's nothing wrong with that at all. That's not a critical vote on LML. That's a placeholder that if things go tits up at least looks good but the entire vibrations at that point were Boo getting lynched. The only thing better than a murder is keeping your hands clean of it.

Meh, if scum-KK is reading the game there, he sees this list of undecided voters:
{MBL, Glork, DGB, LML, Boo, VitR, inHim, Albert}
Glork, DGB, Albert and Boo ain't voting Boo, ever. That leaves only MBL, LML, VitR, inHim to make Boo (12). Voting Boo would have given that wagon a fighting chance. Voting LML was, as you say, a fine vote for self-preservation but an incredibly terrible vote for the team. (Assuming Boo's town.)

The Boo wagon had at least six townies on it: {

Sotty7

,

Shanba

,

Cogito Ergo Sum

, chamber,

Untrod Tripod

, mathcam,

undo

,

CrashTextDummie

}

Plenty of cover for a vote by replace-in scum, and KK had found both Seol and LML scummy on initial read.

I dunno, man, just seems like it would have been so easy for scum-KK to play that differently to make life easier on his team.

What do you think of KK/OGML being fairly strong against the Sotty, CES, Spyrex and PJ lynches?

Is the complete list of the slot's crimes {Found Glork scummy, Found DGB scummy and STD townish} ? Or is there something in particular about the vehemence of the anti-DGB push that looks scummy to you?

[SpyreX]

Meh, if scum-KK is reading the game there, he sees this list of undecided voters:
{MBL, Glork, DGB, LML, Boo, VitR, inHim, Albert}
Glork, DGB, Albert and Boo ain't voting Boo, ever. That leaves only MBL, LML, VitR, inHim to make Boo (12). Voting Boo would have given that wagon a fighting chance. Voting LML was, as you say, a fine vote for self-preservation but an incredibly terrible vote for the team. (Assuming Boo's town.)

The Boo wagon had at least six townies on it: {Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, Untrod Tripod, mathcam, undo, CrashTextDummie}

Plenty of cover for a vote by replace-in scum, and KK had found both Seol and LML scummy on initial read.

I dunno, man, just seems like it would have been so easy for scum-KK to play that differently to make life easier on his team.

What do you think of KK/OGML being fairly strong against the Sotty, CES, Spyrex and PJ lynches?

Is the complete list of the slot's crimes {Found Glork scummy, Found DGB scummy and STD townish} ? Or is there something in particular about the vehemence of the anti-DGB push that looks scummy to you?

Hmmm. Now I'm getting the classic paranoia - I may be glossing over boo too much. Or a massive scum bus?
I don't think the process went that far (its conjecture). I think scum KK hops in, sees a wagon lite on a buddy and parks there.

I think its a little conflated with both the strength of the wagon and the vehemency the defended it. I wasn't a strong wagon. CES is a great wagon for scum to protest. PJ, mason or not, was both loud and sofar wrong - absolutely argue against that when you've got masons gone cross eyed.

Is the complete list of the slot's crimes {Found Glork scummy, Found DGB scummy and STD townish} ? Or is there something in particular about the vehemence of the anti-DGB push that looks scummy to you?

Its absolutely the latter. It wasn't found DGB scummy. It was DGB scum from the roof. Add into it that DGB was the NK over masons especially because you know DGB would have the cred and would have pushed that lynch to fire and beyond today.

[mathcam]

Alright, here's a summary of my current thoughts.

1) Chamber and 2) Porochaz
-- As hinted in the past few exchanges, I can't find almost anything I've found that either of these two have done that I'd call pro-town. Maybe better put, there's nothing where I thought "That's a ballsy play for them if they're scum." Porochaz seems to be the worst of the two. One extra note on Chamber is that in LML's list of reads, from which we got STD as scum, he had this list of town:

Here's who I currently think is town: Chamber, DGB, Shanba, Glork.

Chamber's the only unknown on that list, and I think it's pretty reasonable to believe that LML would put one co-scum in the scumpile, and one co-scum in the town pile, leaving everyone else leaning town or null. Chamber is also, along with VitaminR, on STD's list of people he

wouldn't

vote for, in post 377. Neither of these amount to

too

much, but interesting nonetheless. (GC: Side note on language, this stance is a good example of "at most neutral" that I wouldn't call a nullread).

5) MrBuddyLee
-- Been making a lot of good arguments recently, especially ones that tend to conclude that people are town. When combined with masons, this doesn't leave too many scum candidates left. Seems like an odd thing to do for scum. Also had STD-MBL very unlikely, and this holds up after a reread.

15) Albert B. Rampage
- Willing to buy for now his claim that he's not that good of an actor.

16) Green Crayons
- Generally pro-town the first time through, and rereading solidifies this. Not particularly anti-STD or LML, but is there for both at the end.

17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
- I think Spyrex-STD is very unlikely.

18) VitaminR
- In the end, actually defends STD in what feels like a pretty genuine way. I still have some wariness left over from yesterday, where I was hesitant to believe that both he and CES were both town. It jsut felt to me that the extent to which he whole-heartedly believe CES to be town could only come from (a) being blinded by a scum CES, or (b) being sure since he was scum himself. I'm starting to waver in this belief, however.

20) Yosarian2
- I've had a good townread on him for most of the game, but I'm now questioning my stance that Yos and STD were unlikely to be scumtogether. I could see Yos thinking that there was some amount of balance as scum to being pro-STD but anti-LML on day one. His frustration with ABR was almost certainly genuine, but in the end, alignment-neutral.

21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)
- Leaning town. Her attacks on me have always felt very genuine, and reading Day 1 with her as scum just doesn't feel right, especially how STD discusses voting the two of them. Still, definitely not impossible she could be scum...I always get this nagging feeling I'm not reading her carefully enough.

22) ChannelDelibird (replacing OhGodMyLife who replaced Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris)
- Agreed with the points by MBL, echoing my own feelings. OGML was too genuinely frustrated at the end to be scum. I think I also had slight pro-town reads on both Tigris and KK.

---------------------

Combining these individual reads with likely scumpairings (which I should update, but haven't) leaves me with a reasonably clear ordering.

Very happy to lynch: porochaz
Would not mind lynching: chamber, Yos, VitR
Only if in a pinch: ABR, BooKitty, GC
Generally opposed to lynching: MBL, Spyrex, CDB, masons

Also, poro's last post did nothing for me. I too have been wrong about almost everything this game, but I feel like I've accrued some pro-town points in the process. I feel like all poro's done is attack townies, and that's pretty hard to overcome without something strong in his favor.

Vote: porochaz.

[ChannelDelibird]

I've just finished reading LML's iso. I have some individual reads based on his reaction to some players but I'll start with the juiciest post for analysis, the ranking of scum suspects.

All colouring of text in this following quote is mine, with red for flipped scum, green for flipped town, and blue for me as town confirmed only to myself.

Here's who I currently think is town: Chamber,

DGB, Shanba, Glork

.
Here's who I am leaning town on: MBL, Undo, ABR. inHim (or any incarnations)
Here's who I have null on: Porochaz,

CTD, CES

, VitR, GC, Yos2, BooKitty (I feel like that wagon is incredibly manufactured... similar to mine),

Kublai Khan

Here's who I am leaning scum on:

UT

, Mathcam,

STD

, Sotty
Here's who I have strong scum feelings for: PJ

Based on my impressions on LML from his iso and my general experience with scum making this kind of lists, I'm inclined to make the following conclusions:

1) chamber is very likely town
2) Juls is very likely town
3) Only one of {mathcam, Sotty} at most is likely to be scum
4) There is certainly one and probably more than one scum in the group {Prozac, GC, Yos, Bookitty}
5) There is probably not more than one scum in the group {MBL, undo, ABR, Spyrex}

Given that we're not likely to have any more than five total scum at most in this game, and therefore a maximum of three left to find, I think we should be concentrating in both the short and medium term on that group of null reads.

You'll notice that I didn't include VitaminR in that group there - that's because I developed a fairly strong townread on him from LML's jumpy deference to him in this post.

I found almost no mention of Bookitty or Seol in LML's iso (off the top of my head, I think his only mention of Bookitty was along the lines of saying that he didn't really have anything to say).

I felt that the top of this post would make a weird buddy interaction between LML and GC - as LML accuses him of trying to get a reaction while essentially simultaneously doing exactly that, it's hard to see him posting something so confused to someone whom he knows is on his side, because one tends to weigh up those interactions a bit more carefully as scum.

A little further down that same post, we get the first interaction between LML and Yos where I felt like LML was trying to approach a townie rather than one where I was idly wondering about the possibility of them being buddies. It seems like a fairly classic example of scum reaching out to a town player whom they think might be vulnerable to a change of heart in the hopes that that player can spread the word on it, whereas earlier I wasn't a huge fan of LML & Yos's overly explainy discussion as shown in this post, which would be the safer sort of interaction between buddies, where they just talk a lot about clarification and look busy rather than really driving the scumhunt. I also don't know what on earth Yos was smoking here.

My strongest scumread of the iso emerged late in it, however. Prozac's vote on LML here smacks of citing buzzwords for the accusations towards a buddy without explaining what about those things actually make him scummy, while LML's response is oddly devoid of judgement of Prozac considering how much he's questioning him. LML wasn't shy about getting opinions out there but the "humour me" thing was a bit forced and the whole thing just seems like an awkward bus.

tl;dr:

LML's iso strongly points to Prozac being one of his buddies. I will be paying particular attention to Prozac, Yos, GC and Bookitty while isoing STD, which is my next task.

[chamber]

You should know that sotty pj/juls and undo are all claimed mason, CDB.

[mathcam]

CDB: I won't try to influence too much of your reading as you get caught up, but two things.

1) Juls, undo, and Sotty are essentially uncontested masons. So, e.g.,

Only one of {mathcam, Sotty} at most is likely to be scum

is pretty certainly true.

2) Interesting that you should derive that opinion on chamber from that list. chamber's placement in that list was exactly what spurred me to take a closer look at him.

[chamber]

His actual town read section is a lot bigger than the top row, it also functionally includes the one below it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, that definitely is worth knowing. Thanks.

[Green Crayons]

3603 reads like scum using excuses and shock to explain away his wrongness and to stall on providing scum hunting material.

Town will be wrong. It's not the end of the world if you're town and you're wrong. It's inevitable. But 3603 reads as if we should believe Prozac's wrongness w/r/t DGB and STD has shaken him to his core or something. It looks like scum overselling town regret.

[Yosarian2]

Back from V/LA. Will try to read and respond to everything; let me respond to Juls first.

Juls, from my point of view, what happened on day 1 was basically this:

-VitR started out with a vote on LML for a garbage reason

-I called him out for it as my first non-random vote (obviously not a very strong vote at the time, just a better then random one, with a little showmanship added to it to try to help me get a read on VitR)

-As the day went on, though, LML became increasingly scummy, while VitR seemed to just fade off the case, unvote him, and basically fade off into scummy nothingness

-I drove the LML wagon, with a little help from GC and from PJ but from basically no one else for most of the day. I lynched him almost singlehandedly, against the strong opposition of a number of vocal townies like DGB.

Now at the time, since I remembered attacking VitR for his attack on LML, I was thinking that they weren't scum together. But looking at it now, it really looks to me like it was probably an early-game distancing vote with no follow through at all.

Overall, my top suspects right now are probably VitR and Mathcam. VitR distanced from LML and then vanished, and he defended STD yesterday in several different ways. Mathcam basically avoided commenting on the LML lynch one way or the other (even when being questioned), and he also basically didn't comment on the STD lynch yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

And, looks like VitR is continuing to act scummy today, so that pretty much seals it for me.

vote:VitimanR

[Albert B. Rampage]

It's either Porochaz or CDB.

[Juls]

I know I keep saying this but with summer winding up I have been really busy. I should have some time to read and respond tomorrow. Obviously still not caught up but I would like to at least get through day 1 tomorrow.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey Yos, what do you think of Poro and CDB?

[Yosarian2]

Hey Yos, what do you think of Poro and CDB?

Well, if VitR flips scum, then CDB is probably town; OGML was pushing pretty hard for us to lynch VitR instead of CES.

Poro, I donno; I'd like to see him respond to your 3601.

At the moment, if it really did come down to those two, I guess I'd vote for porochaz, but I think we've got more likely suspects then either right now.

[MrBuddyLee]

chamber and VitR, who are your #2 suspects?

[SpyreX]

V/LA until thurs at minimum. I'll try and do what I can.

[Yosarian2]

Once I made it clear that I think that either DGB or STD is probably scum (which, by the way, I actually do), then hypo-scum-DGB (who presumably would already know STD was town) would probably derail the whole STD bandwagon; stop voting for him and vote for me, or change the focus to someone else, or something.

Was this expectation of blatantly scummy behavior coming from DGB-scum based on your previous experience with DGB?[/quote]

DGB can change direction in the blink of an eye, and no one thinks it's strange because of her meta. In my experience, scum-DGB consistently and easily gets away with things that no other scum would even try, and she uses that to her best advantage.

Honestly, I'm not totally sure what a scum-DGB reaction there would have looked like, but I do think it would have looked different enough from townie-DGB reaction for me to tell the difference. The reaction she gave was pretty clearly a town one.